Weather Forecast For Reading & Berkshire

Well I hope you enjoyed your allotted one day of sunshine for the month. I jest, there is a bit more sunshine in the forecast, but there’s plenty more showery rain too.

Thanks to Jessica for the perfect photograph for our current weather.

The general set-up is much as it has been for a couple of weeks now, high pressure blocks over much of Scandinavia and Russia, forcing the jetstream south across the Mediterranean, bringing some really wet weather to Spain/Portugal (again).

The main low pressure trough actually stretches from southern Greenland to north Africa, and across much of Europe – it’s pretty humungous, with various smaller systems and weather fronts affecting different areas at different times. Including the UK.

Thursday will be a mostly cloudy day. Outbreaks of showery rain in the morning, tending to fade towards lunchtime though the odd bit of rain still possible. Perhaps a little bit of brightness at times in the afternoon before further showery rain arrives by later afternoon. Breezy and around 9’C. Further rain in the evening and overnight – not raining all the time, but most of the time. Around 8’C.

Friday again is a mostly cloudy day with some showery rain at times – likely less than on Thursday. Lunchtime to mid-afternoon probably the focus for the more persistent and heavier rain, and perhaps brighter by dusk. A bit milder, around 10’C and a fairly light breeze. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight – one or two showers probable too. Around 6’C.

Saturday will see further spells of showery rain, heavy at times – but also some bright, sunny spells are probable too. Cannot yet put details on the timing of when showery rain is more likely. Around 10’C. Probably dry overnight with some clear spells – down to around 4’C, give or take, a chance of fog forming by dawn.

Subtle changes to the pattern by Sunday as we start to see the Azores High nudge into southern Spain – no effect on our weather on the ground, but if you have a half-term holiday booked in southern Spain/Portugal, then you might be pleased!

For us, well the jetstream should eventually then head north…towards the UK. That’s still a little way away yet though.

Our weather for Sunday…comparatively reasonable, once any early morning fog lifts then sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud, though probably at least a couple of showers at some point too, perhaps heavy. Around 11’C so quite mild – it is on average the coldest point of the year. Mostly cloudy overnight, some showers possible – around 6’C.

Details for Monday a bit more uncertain – anything particularly wet is unlikely, though some showers or showery rain at some point, more likely later in the day, is very possible. And fairly cloudy – around 10’C.

Further bands of rain then likely from Monday night onwards through to Wednesday/Thursday – impossible to put any timing on them at this stage.

More likely next weekend sees further wind and rain, though there remains a smallish chance of something drier/colder – but it would only be a short spell anyway.

Most likely the remainder of February will remain changeable at best, with further wind/rain on a fairly regular basis, though also probably trending milder than normal too.

Oh well. Spring is on the way…but still a fair way away.…

All pretty unremarkable weather, lots of cloud, some rain, some sunshine – roughly normal temperatures but occasionally a bit colder.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

The general set-up remains much the same, a large block of high pressure over much of eastern Europe and Russia – which means the jetstream has to go further south through the Mediterranean, and most of the rain hence is towards Spain/Portugal, etc – though we remain on the northern edge of large and complex low pressure systems.

This pattern is going to take some shifting.

Daytime maximum temperatures where the high pressure block is today would be -5’C for Berlin or -15’C for Kyiv. And some high rainfall totals expected across Mediterranean countries – especially western Portugal. Not exactly dry here, but all very ordinary.

Sunday will be cloudy with outbreaks of often light/moderate rain at first, though becoming more persistent and somewhat heavier later in the afternoon/early evening. Around 8’C. The rain gradually clearing east this evening, remaining cloudy with the odd light shower still around overnight – down to around 5’C.

Monday will be mostly cloudy. Some bits of light showery rain possible at times, some brightness also possible – the latter more likely later in the afternoon. Around 8’C, a bit breezier. Cloudy overnight with showery rain arriving by late evening and continuing overnight – around 5’C and breezy.

Tuesday will be cloudy with rain on and off all day. Tending to be light/moderate earlier in the day and more patchy – suggestions that it will be somewhat heavier and more persistent as the afternoon goes on. Picking up a south-easterly wind so feeling a bit colder, around 6’C. The rain gradually moves north overnight, though continues for a fair while – some clear spells possible before dawn. Around 6’C.

Wednesday should be a reasonable day, some cloud around but also some spells of sunshine, and milder in a southerly breeze – around 10’C or so. Some clear spells, some cloud overnight – down to around 4’C, give or take.

By Thursday we see the next large low pressure system heading towards us.

Details a bit sketchier by this point, but more likely dry or mostly dry, more likely on the cloudier side of things, and roughly around 8’C – breezy too. Perhaps some rain overnight.

Friday probably sees some rain around at times, perhaps somewhat colder again though some uncertainty over where the boundary between colder and milder air will be.

Next weekend likely sees rain at some points but also there will be some dry spells too – probably nothing too wet, but low confidence. Most likely a little milder than average, say 10’C – but there is a small chance of it being colder, say around 5’C.

Perhaps something colder and drier the week after – overnight frosts possible and perhaps wintry showery, though low confidence on this.

Higher confidence on it being broadly wetter, windier and milder than normal for the second half of February…assuming no game-changing event such as a sudden stratospheric warming event.

That said, a sudden stratospheric warming event does look more likely than not for mid-February. Too early to know what impact it could have on our weather down here in the troposphere…but impacts would be possible by late February/early March.

Have a pleasant Sunday.…

Ahhh the last forecast of the longest ever month, January – and it’s a mixture of cloud, a bit of sunshine, some rain – all a bit “whatever”.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph – don’t expect this much sunshine any time soon though!

The pattern is much the same as it has been, low pressure systems getting blocked over the UK by the cold block of high pressure towards Russia/Siberia – with the jetstream going through the Mediterranean, along with the bulk of the rain.

Thursday starts on the chilly side, with mist/fog patches in places, some low cloud around – but also some bright spells too. Generally it will become mostly cloudy, some occasional bright spells, a light shower possible too. Around 7’C which is more or less average for the time of year. Showery rain arriving early to mid evening, and continuing on and off until around dawn, give or take. Around 6’C.

Any patchy rain will clear fairly quickly on Friday morning, some hazy sunshine for a time once the overnight weather front clears during the morning, though a shower will remain possible. A further band of rain arrives mid-afternoon (ish) with another 2-3 hours of rain, perhaps heavy. Milder, around 10’C and breezy. Further showery rain possible in the evening, though trending drier as the night goes on – some clear spells possible by dawn. Around 5’C.

For Saturday we have this decaying low pressure over us – blocked by the high pressure block to the east, which will be nudging closer by this point, thought the deep cold not really getting further west of Poland. Generally a lot of cloud for us, some sunny spells possible, some showery bits of rain probable – details sketchy, though showery rain more likely later in the day. Around 9’C. Generally cloudy with some showery rain overnight – though perhaps drier and foggy towards dawn. Down to around 3’C.

Again details a bit sketchy for Sunday, but still likely a lot of cloud around, some bright/sunny spells possible, some showers possible – though showers more hit and miss. Around 8’C.

By Monday the next low pressure system will be trying to push in, though will get squeezed further south.

Again details are uncertain but probably rain pushing north is the theme, more likely later in the day. A small chance it doesn’t actually get this far north in the first place, but 90% likely it does. Around 8’C and becoming quite windy.

Probably still some showery rain around on Tuesday – though very uncertain.

I think the trend will be for low pressure systems to not extend so far north next week (at the moment we have these huge complex multi-low systems, stretching from Spain to Iceland), so more focused down towards Spain/Portugal – so generally less rain, often cloudy, temperatures around average or a little above. Probably.

Perhaps something colder from the east for next weekend, or the week after – unless the jetstream fires up notably again, like it did this week – assumedly thanks to the plunge of deep cold into North America.…

A fairly unsettled week ahead with rain and wind at times.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph – alas I have no rain/cloud photographs to match the forecast, but at least this has flooded fields.

So starting with the general overview and we have the expected scenario of low pressure systems coming up against the high pressure block over Siberia which is pushing west into Europe.

However, the jetstream has more power than previously expected, assumedly fuelled by the plunge of cold air into North America and hence the pattern is a bit further north and east than expected – so low pressure systems not getting much further east than the UK, but enough to mostly keep the cold out…mostly. Certainly not mild either.

Sunday sees this decaying low pressure around – partly the energy is going south-east into Europe, partly it is re-curving back into the Atlantic. Generally cloudy, some occasional rain – should be light/moderate and breezy. Around 8’C. Remaining mostly cloudy in the evening and overnight, any remaining light patchy rain in the evening will fade. Down to around 5’C.

Monday will be mostly cloudy – a bit of brightness at times, a little bit of light rain possible at other times. Around 8’C and breezy. Rain arriving early evening, some heavy bursts likely overnight. Down to around 6’C and becoming windy too.

Tuesday starts cloudy with outbreaks of rain, likely heavy at times. Some uncertainty, but more likely it clears around lunchtime with sunny spells following, and perhaps a heavy shower or two. Around 10’C – windy at times too, more so in the morning, and perhaps again later in the day. Some clear spells probable overnight – showers will remain possible, and down to around 3’C.

By Wednesday we see low pressure dominant close to our west, but still the various systems cannot get past the UK.

Wednesday itself looks a reasonable day – weather fronts stuck to our west so it should be sunny for a good portion of the day, some cloud around. Around 8’C. Showery rain probably crosses overnight.

Another band of rain probably spreads across on Thursday, timing uncertain though afternoon would be a reasonable guide. Around 9’C.

Low pressure still around Friday/Saturday so often cloudy, further showers likely at times and temperatures roughly around 8’C to 10’C. All very January vibes.

The more likely outcome is this pattern of low pressure systems close to the UK, but not able to progress further due to the block further east, continues for a while. Certainly possible the cold weather block could push further west and bring something colder/drier into February, but it does seem like the Atlantic has way too much energy now.

Rumblings of a possible sudden stratospheric warming event for early/mid-February, though any possible wintry outbreak from that would likely not arrive until late February/early March. Not something to expect yet, but something to watch as a possibility.

Assuming no sudden stratospheric warming event, then I’d expect February to continue broadly in the current unsettled theme, though some drier and colder weather at times mixed in.

March probably sees the jetstream move further north (again assuming no SSW event) – though bear in mind it is currently over the Mediterranean, and Spain/Portugal/France are actually getting the brunt of the unsettled weather at the moment and likely they will in February too. So that means that low pressure systems will often be over the UK in March, though also I’d expect to see some milder and more pleasant spring weather at times.

Expectations remain more muted for April/May – wetter and cooler patterns are currently more likely, but there’s a very long way to go until then. Currently wondering how many holidays I can fit into those months!

Have a good Sunday.…

More rain on the way, and probably colder next week.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph…a rain photograph, which makes me happy that I have something that matches the forecast!

So the general overview sees low pressure close to the south-west of the UK, struggling to get much further than the UK and hence being squeezed further south than normal, due to the blocking high over much of Europe and Scandinavia.

Tonight sees showery outbreaks of rain, some heavy, some light – was quite soaked getting back from work in London this evening. No lower than around 9’C and breezy.

Thursday (my birthday!) starts cloudy with showery rain. Some limited brightness from mid-morning onwards but plenty of showers, some heavy will also continue through the day. Around 10’C and breezy. Reasonably clear skies for a time overnight, clouding over later – a shower possible. Down to around 5’C.

Friday morning sees the next band of rain move up from the south, mostly light/moderate rain. Some sunny spells possible for a time in the afternoon, though further showers will remain very possible. Around 9’C and becoming windy later. The low pressure system actually turns back into the Atlantic overnight – but it will still remain mostly cloudy, some occasional showery rain – and down to around 5’C.

By Saturday low pressure should have moved sufficiently west to keep most of the rain away from us – and it should be an…ok day. Some reasonably spells of sunshine, variable amounts of cloud, breezy – perhaps a shower or two, more likely earlier in the day. Around 9’C. A bit of uncertainty as low pressure systems tend not to curve back into the Atlantic, so don’t be shocked if it is somewhat cloudier with some rain instead. Some showers probable overnight, low confidence – around 5’C.

More likely, Sunday is again a cloudier day with some showery rain at times, and around 9’C.

By Monday we start to see colder air filtering back west, but further low pressure systems trying to push in from the west.

Details from here are pretty impossible though. If the cold air gets far enough west during Sunday night into Monday, then the next weather front could be a rain/snow mixture on Tuesday.

However, it might not get far across at all – in which case it will definitely be rain, and might arrive on Monday.

Really is a 50/50 chance. Certainly the chances of a cold spell next week are significantly reduced from when I previously wrote on Sunday…I assume due to the jetstream being fired up over the US due to their cold plunge, though I’ve been too busy this week to really look into anything outside our corner of the globe.

Broadly speaking next week is finely balanced between being somewhat colder than normal, with rain at times and possible sleet/snow mixed in, or somewhat milder, again with rain at times.

A bit rushed this forecast…I’ll have time properly on Sunday morning to update.…

Everything’s pretty ordinary on the ground for the week ahead, average temperatures, lots of cloud, a bit of sunshine and some rain. Something colder to follow remains a possibility.

Thanks to Helena, and Gladys for the photograph. Alas, I cannot quite promise this level of sunshine.

So the general overview sees low pressure systems in the Atlantic not being able to progress that far due to the high pressure block over Europe. We are stuck in the middle.

Low pressure is over Spain/Portugal too, and as low pressure to our west gets closer later in the week, it probably we end up taking a more southerly directly due to the high pressure block.

Today has started cloudy, misty – there’s some bits of rain around too. Generally this is the way it will remain, often cloudy, occasional bits of rain – but there should be some bright/sunny spells at times, more so mid/late morning and early afternoon. Fairly mild, around 10’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, some mist/fog patches possible, perhaps a spot of rain at times – but the weather fronts will remain stuck to our west. Around 7’C.

Monday again will be mostly cloudy, some bits and pieces of mostly light rain though often dry. Some bright/sunny spells at times too. Around 10’C, maybe even 11’C. Similar overnight, often cloudy, occasional splashes of rain, around 7’C.

More hope for some sunshine on Tuesday, there will still be a fair amount of cloud at times, and some showery bits of rain will remain very possible. Around 9’C, maybe 10’C, becoming breezier. Showery rain may develop by late afternoon – some uncertainty on this. Showery rain probable in the evening and overnight, around 6’C.

Details a little sketchy for Wednesday, low pressure will be much closer – overnight weather fronts will probably bring some rain at times on Wednesday, more likely in the morning and evening, perhaps some brightness in between. Feeling a tad cooler, around 8’C and breezy. Rain probable in the evening/overnight.

By Thursday those low pressure systems are queueing up, but cannot make much progress due to the huge high pressure block stretching from Siberia – and edging closer to the UK, with associated very cold air.

So the hemispheric view is really interesting, but down on the ground for us, little difference. Thursday is probably a showery day, lots of cloud, a bit of sunshine – showers probably heavy/very heavy – maybe even a rumble of thunder. Around 9’C, and breezy. Showers possible overnight too.

Into Friday, further rain and/or showers are likely – temperatures roughly around 8’C or so.

Next weekend is fairly uncertain, but the more likely outcome is that the low pressure systems start to give up trying to cross the UK, and sink south – allowing a more easterly (ish) flow to set up.

So showers possible still on Saturday, temperatures a tad colder but nothing unusual.

Sunday more likely on the dry side, but perhaps quite cold by this point.

The more likely outcome for the week after would see colder than normal weather, probably fairly dry though wintry showers possible – overnight frost/fog very possible. Not certain that it will go cold, but the more likely outcome by a fair distance. I’d probably say 70/30 cold vs mild in terms of probabilities.

And there remains the small possibility of something notably cold/snowy.

Have a fun Sunday. Not sure when the next forecast will be as Wednesday is office day and Thursday I’m going to Barcelona for the day and that involves a 7am flight…but I will find the time at some point, as it is quite interesting hemispherically right now…even if it might just seem ordinary on the ground here.…

A wet day today, though after that it should be fairly middling, some cloud, some showers, some sunshine. Perhaps more interesting later next week as the high pressure block to our east edges west…

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So the general set-up sees low pressure to the west heading our way, though high pressure over Siberia is going to head west, which will mean that the main low pressure sits over the UK during the weekend, and gradually fades, as it cannot move east.

Today starts cloudy. Outbreaks of often heavy rain will arrive any time from around 8/9am onwards, and will continue until mid-evening. A fair soaking ahead. Around 9’C, winds becoming quite gusty in the afternoon too. Skies gradually clearing somewhat once the rain clears mid, maybe late evening, some mist/fog possible in places – but one or two showers again possible before dawn. Down to around 3’C.

Friday will be brighter to an extent – still a fair amount of cloud around but there will be bright/sunny spells at times, more so in the afternoon. Showers possible, more so both first thing in the morning but possible any time of the day – they will be hit and miss, so an equal chance of staying dry as to catching one/two. Around 9’C and breezy. Fairly cloudy in the evening and overnight, and more in the way of showers around. 7’C or so.

By Saturday the low pressure is fading quickly – quite a lot of cloud around and some showery bits, but a fairly nothing day really, weather-wise. Around 9’C. Generally mostly cloudy overnight – there is a chance of some showery rain moving up from France, but low likelihood – say 20% chance.

Some uncertainty on details for Sunday, though the most likely outcome is a mostly cloudy day with some outbreaks of showery rain developing at some point. But it is quite finely balanced, and a cloudy but dry, or even a fairly sunny day is possible. Around 8’C.

By Monday we are kind of in battle ground scenario, with low pressure systems coming up against the high pressure block to our east, and the UK is roughly where the no entry sign is.

Again details from here are fairly uncertain, and will depend on where weather fronts stall.

For both Monday and Tuesday, the main weather fronts should remain to our west – but likely some showers/showery rain develops ahead of them at times, so generally the more likely outcome is fairly cloudy, occasionally bright/sunny, some showers/showery rain at times – but often dry.

Still around 9’C or so.

Highly uncertain for the rest of next week – maybe low pressure systems make more progress and we get some more rain for a time – but also maybe the high pressure block extends this far west, and we get drier and somewhat colder weather instead, with overnight frosts becoming possible once more, depending on cloud amounts.

There’s a reasonable chance that the week after (w/c 26th January) sees more of an easterly flow, with a return to below-average temperatures, and a chance of wintry showers depending on the exact set-up.

A very long way away, in meteorological terms, but there are fairly strong signals towards this considering it is 12+ days away.

I wouldn’t even rule out a Beast From The East type scenario. It’s within the range of plausible outcomes.

Have a jolly end to the week, I shall be back on Sunday morning, all being well.…

The cold spell is ending, with milder air and some rain at times to replace it. All fairly ordinary.

I’ve had a sudden splurge of photos so thanks for them all, too many to use so as always, do forgive me if I don’t use yours. Thanks to Isabel for this week…yes I do often need cloudy photos!

We still have a fairly slow-moving pattern, with low pressure to the west/north-west and a south-westerly flow picking up – always a mild direction.

Today starts cloudy, the odd spot of light rain around this morning and it’s still cold. From mid/late morning onwards there will be outbreaks of rain, generally light or moderate. Starting the day around 0’C but it will creep up to around 6’C by dusk. Gradually becoming windy too. Some heavier outbreaks of rain around in the evening, temperatures up to a mild 11’C – generally cloudy overnight, the odd spot of rain still possible, and around 9’C.

Monday will generally be rather cloudy – some bright spells at times with some hazy sunshine, a few scattered bits of showery rain possible too at times. Around 10’C and breezy. Mostly cloudy overnight, perhaps some clear spells, around 7’C.

Tuesday remains cloudy and further rain will arrive. Some uncertainty on the track and hence when it will arrive, more likely it arrives in the morning so bringing a wet day – though a smaller chance that it tracks further west, and hence doesn’t arrive until later in the day. But assume the former, for now. Around 10’C and breezy. In either scenario, the rain probably still around in the evening and the first part of the night – but colder air likely arrives for the second half of the night, so a frost possible – down to around 0’C once the rain clears. Perhaps icy, a small chance of some fog patches.

Wednesday sees a ridge of high pressure – sunny to start, gradually clouding over as the day goes on. Colder air in place, around 5’C. A weather front will bring some rain across, either in the evening or overnight.

By Thursday we see the next low pressure system lurking to the west.

Thursday itself is probably a reasonable day, spells of sunshine – if not sunny for most of the day. Around 8’C. A shower possible in the breeze. Rain possible overnight – though quite uncertain.

Details more uncertain by this stage – the general pattern sees the low pressure head towards the UK but weaken as it does.

Showers or showery rain probable on Friday, and possible on Saturday – temperatures around 8’C or so, which is what you’d expect for this time of year.

Dry is the slightly more likely outcome for next Sunday but I really wouldn’t want to promise it quite yet – more weather fronts will be waiting, but also the high pressure block to our east will be trying to push back west.

And that will likely be the story of the weather the week after – how far west can the high pressure block (and associated colder weather) push back west?

Enjoy your Sunday.

…

Cold with rain at times, but perhaps some sleet/snow falling too – quite a mixed and complex picture.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph – rare I get to use a wintry one, so using whilst it is relevant!

Accurate forecasting period is unusually short at the moment, probably 3 days at best.

So we start the forecast period with cold air still in place, though now in a more mobile westerly flow, with Storm Goretti very quickly developing to our south-west.

Thursday starts cloudy, perhaps with a spot of drizzle. Some brightness possible in the morning before the main area of rain arrives around 1pm give or take, some heavy bursts, perhaps a bit of sleet mixed in but most likely it is all rain. Around 4’C. The main rain clears for a while around mid-evening, though there will still be showers – briefly milder, up to around 9’C. Colder air then tucks in as the low pressure moves east overnight, down to around 2’C – and the back edge of the weather front will cross with a mixture of rain, sleet and wet snow falling. I cannot rule out a light slushy covering, but rain/sleet more likely. Windy at times, notably before and around dawn.

Friday is a cloudy day, with bits and pieces of rain and sleet in the morning, perhaps wet snow if precipitation is heavy enough, gradually easing east. Around 4’C but feeling notably cold in a rather raw wind. Skies should gradually clear overnight, though a fairly close call – it could stay cloudy. Assuming it clears then a frost will form, down to around -1’C.

Saturday looks reasonably bright with sunny spells at times, though also various amounts of cloud too. Around 3’C and breezy – still pretty cold. Clear skies likely at least at first overnight, with a frost – roughly down to around -2’C. A chance of fog forming, perhaps generally clouding over later in the night.

By Sunday we start to see more of a westerly flow pushing across, and signs of something milder too.

Quite a lot of uncertainty over how much resistance the cold air block will have, so the weather front and associated rain (most likely rain, anyway) could arrive in the morning, or maybe not until evening – but the generally trend will be for it to cloud over, with rain arriving at some point, and becoming windier, and slowly, milder.

By Monday we should, should…be back in mild air, say around 11’C or so. Details otherwise uncertain, likely to be some showers around or a spell of rain.

Tuesday similarly mild and uncertain on details – some rain probable at some point.

After that, more likely temperatures are around average or slightly above, with some rain around on some days but also some reasonable spells of dry weather, and hopefully some sunshine at times too.

So I’ve said all this about it returning to milder and somewhat unsettled conditions, but it is still possible that the cold air could hang on instead, maybe it’s a 10% chance. Once Storm Goretti has cleared, things should be clearer in terms of forecasting – it is quite a pivotal low pressure system in terms of what happens afterwards.

Forecasting this last two weeks has been significantly more difficult than normal, and has gone against seasonal expectations – I suspect that the SSW that happened in November is having some effect on both our weather, and the more chaotic output of the weather models that I rely on, which really have been all over the shop at times (my favoured model, the ECM, even had a full-on 1960’s style snow-fest two days ago…which seemed…bizarre).

My assumption is that the upcoming (likely upcoming anyway) spell of fairly unsettled weather won’t last too long, and by the end of January at the latest, we’ll see high pressure having more influence again.

I do feel February, though a mixed month, should see dry and mild conditions dominate somewhat.

Unless…we get another sudden stratospheric warming, in which case we could have more notably cold spells in February. A very possible outcome.

No particular strong signals for early spring (yes I am craving warm sunshine). I’d suggest slightly drier and milder than normal is more likely. There is a signal for something wetter than normal for late spring, though this is 4 months away, so the signal may well fade by time we get closer to May.…