A mixed week ahead, and it will get cooler later – though ex-hurricane Kirk looks like it will track over France now…mostly.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

So the general set-up sees a large area of low pressure still close to our west, which will slowly move east.

Sunny spells and showers for Monday, the showers tending to be most frequent through late morning into early afternoon – though possible either side of this period too. Probably heavy, a small chance of thunder. Tending to fade later in the afternoon – I guess not impossible that you miss all the showers, say a 10% chance of staying dry all day in your location. Reaching 17’C, maybe 18’C. A more organised band of heavy/very heavy showers moving through later in the evening, arriving roughly 9/10pm, and lasting 2-3 hours, a small chance of thunder. Dry for the latter part of the night, and around 11’C.

Tuesday sees more in the way of showers, pretty much from dawn though becoming heavier and more frequent during the day. Most likely you’ll see multiple showers, heavy/very heavy, thunder possible. Breezy, quite gusty in the showers and reaching around 18’C when sunny. Showers continuing into the evening and overnight, to an extent, though fewer overnight. Down to around 12’C.

Fewer showers for Wednesday but still some developing, as low pressure moves away to our east. Lots of cloud, some sunny spells, some showers – potentially heavy but less likely to be so than recent days. 16’C, maybe 17’C and becoming windy later in the day. Cloud thickening overnight, some light rain at times likely, down to around 9’C.

By Thursday, we see ex-hurricane Kirk over northern France and heading into the North Sea – with a northerly flow being pulled down.

Some uncertainty on details due to the track of ex-hurricane Kirk, but most likely cloudy, some rain possible – I currently expect the bulk of the heavy rain to stay over the other side of the English Channel, but it is within the realm of possibility that it tracks north enough to bring us a spell of heavy rain. Otherwise, bits of rain, mostly light and mostly cloudy seems most likely. Feeling cooler in the northerly wind, around 10’C. Skies clearing overnight and a fairly cold night, down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Friday looks fair, plenty of sunshine in the morning, more in the way of cloud in the afternoon but still plenty of sunshine. Around 12’C. Most likely clear skies overnight and another fairly cold night, down to around 2’C with a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Somewhat uncertain for Saturday with no pressure pattern particularly in control. More likely it will be dry with some sunshine, some cloud. Though a weak weather front cannot be ruled out. Still on the cool side, around 13’C or so.

Again fairly low confidence for Sunday, but dry or mostly dry and cool seems the most likely outcome.

Suggestions of something a bit warmer/drier for next week, but I’m not putting too much credence on anything more than 5 days ahead right now, with 3 active hurricanes in the North Atlantic.

But if the second half of October was drier than the first half, that would fit expectations right now.