Hello from slightly sunny Sarajevo! No such “slightness” in the UK, with more glorious and very warm/quite hot sunshine expected.

No photographs, so you’ll have to have one of mine – of the nearby hills of Sarajevo and the peak amount of blue I’ve seen so far (until this morning, anyway).

We start the week with high pressure in control, and a slack southerly flow.

Hazy sunshine to start Monday, the high cloud will gradually thin though some fair-weather cloud will be knocking around too – but a very pleasant day. Warm, around 22’C. Some high cloud overnight, down to around 8’C.

Some high cloud at first on Tuesday, but generally a sunny day. Very warm, around 24’C or so. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday will see long spells of sunshine, a little high cloud. Verging on quite hot, around 26’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

A little more uncertainty creeps in on Thursday, depending the exact wind direction, but mostly it will be sunny and at least quite hot. Temperatures around 27’C to 28’C more likely, but I wouldn’t rule out a 30’C if the stars align. However, there will be a bit of cloud bubbling up and maybe there is a 5% chance of a heavy shower breaking out later in the afternoon. A mild night, around 14’C.

By Friday our high pressure is just about hanging on, though low pressure is trying to head down from the north-west, and likewise the low to the west of Spain/Portugal will be attempting to move north.

Some uncertainty but more likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum, though some sunny spells at least probable. A small chance of a heavy shower. Temperatures somewhere between 20’C and 26’C, depending on sunshine amounts.

A LOT of uncertainty for the weekend – it really could be anything.

This is because of the aforementioned squeeze of our high pressure both from cooler air trying to spread south, and the thundery low to the west of Spain/Portugal trying to head north.

My best guess at the moment is that Saturday remains on the warm side – I certainly wouldn’t want to promise dry and/or sunny, though that would be more likely than wet/cloudy.

Chances of rain/downpours are higher on Sunday and Monday, but still say no more than a 30-40% chance. Temperatures likely cooler, say 14’C to 19’C, depending on sunshine amounts.

Right, it’s time to go walk up at least part of a mountain – hoping to make it to the old bobsleigh track from the Sarajevo 1984 Olympics.

Have a pleasant week, I will try to do the next forecast on Thursday morning, hopefully the models have a bit more clarity by then.…

Warming up!

Thanks to Clare for the photograph.

So we start the forecast period with high pressure building between here and Scandinavia, with the Azores high also trying to move in. Nice.

Patchy mist/fog/low cloud in some places, sunshine in others to start the day – tending to become sunnier for the cloudy spots for a while this morning but then clouding over generally for all before lunchtime. Still bright with some hazy sunshine, reaching around 16’C or so – with more sunshine for the evening. Mostly cloudy overnight as a weather front struggles to push east – perhaps a splash of rain later in the night, around 8’C.

Saturday is a bit of a mish-mash, as we’ll have this weather front over us whilst high pressure is building. A lot of cloud around but there will be hazy sunshine at times. Some showery bits of rain possible, perhaps a heavy shower later in the day, but very easily you stay dry in your location. A bit warmer, 18’C. Cloud gradually thinning overnight, though mist/fog patches may develop by dawn, down to around 6’C.

Sunday sees early mist/fog patches but they will lift quickly into sunny spells. Likely quite a lot of fair-weather cloud around from lunchtime onwards, probably more cloud than sun, but still sunny spells and warmer too – 21’C is plausible. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C – a small chance of mist/fog patches by dawn.

By Monday we see high pressure over a good chunk of northern and western Europe, though with low pressure tracking towards the west of Spain/Portugal, which will then act as a heat pump.

Monday itself will be fine, any early mist/fog patches will quickly lift into good spells of sunshine. Again some high cloud possible and more so some fair-weather cloud in the afternoon. Warm, around 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Tuesday sees good spells of sunshine all day – just a little bit of cloud. Warm, how much will depend on the exact wind direction, probably closer to 22’C but I wouldn’t rule out anything up to 25’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, around 9’C.

Uncertainty starts to increase for Wednesday, but it will stay fine and dry, very likely it remains mostly sunny, and more likely very warm, say somewhere between 23’C and 26’C. A small chance instead of more of an easterly flow, a bit more cloud but still very pleasant and around 22’C.

Thursday almost definitely remains sunny or mostly so, and more likely remains very warm, if not quite hot – somewhere between 23’C and 27’C. Well, it will be the 1st of May.

Can it last for the bank holiday weekend?

Probably not, though spring so far has been one of upgrades to expectations.

The somewhat more likely outcome as it stands is cooler air spreading down from the north, so temperatures closer to say 13’C to 17’C. But also dry or mostly dry conditions look more likely, sunshine/cloud amounts uncertain.

However, I’d still rate it around a 35% chance that the sunshine and warmth can hang on instead.

A washout bank holiday looks unlikely…low pressure doesn’t seem to be keen on hanging around the UK at the moment.

If you want heat, it could well be proper scorchio (for the time of year) around the Balearics, eastern Spain, southern France, western Italy – that kind of region.

Enjoy your weekend.…

I hope you’ve all had a pleasant Easter weekend – a fairly mixed week of weather ahead though nothing too bad.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

My new website is now live, I’m sure there will be a few teething issues so if you find anything please do let me know.

We start the week with low pressure to our west – it will cross the UK but it isn’t especially potent. Otherwise not a lot is really happening across Europe.

So Easter Monday starts fairly cloudy. Some bright spells, the odd spot of rain possible too. Early-mid afternoon sees a band of rain cross, probably not that much in the way of rain and only for a couple of hours – brighter to finish the day, though a heavy shower will be possible. Around 15’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Tuesday starts mostly sunny. Quite a lot of fair-weather cloud will bubble up, a 30% chance of a shower but otherwise a reasonable day with some sunny spells. Around 17’C. Clear spells at first overnight, but cloud will thicken with rain arriving around midnight, give or take, for a few hours. Quite windy whilst raining. It should be dry by dawn. Around 9’C.

Wednesday looks a fairly cloudy day with low pressure overhead. The main band of rain likely has cleared east but it will leave an overhang where showers will easily develop – so a lot of cloud, plenty of showers and a bit of sunshine is the more likely outcome. Around 15’C – give or take. Quite breezy too. Likely rather cloudy overnight, around 8’C.

Thursday is more likely on the cloudy side – some sunny spells possible. Around 15’C – probably dry but a light shower not out of the question. Cloud tending to thin overnight, down to around 4’C.

By Friday high pressure is trying to develop over the UK, though low pressure to our west is trying to needle it’s way in too.

Weather fronts should be far enough to our west for a pleasant day with some hazy sunshine – though it’s a fairly close call at this stage. Say 80% likely we’ll see a day of hazy sunshine, 20% that instead we see some patchy rain. Around 16’C – give or take. Probably cloudy overnight, perhaps some rain as the weather front keeps trying to push east.

Low confidence for Saturday, but more likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum with a bit of patchy rain. Some sunshine certainly possible – and broadly around 15’C, give or take.

A bit more hope for sunshine and something a tad warmer on Sunday – again low confidence, but the more likely outcome. Say sunny spells and 18’C more likely.

Early signs for next week are for something warmer and sunnier, though a risk of a heavy shower or two at times.…

It’s Fake Friday, and the weather doesn’t look too bad for the weekend, some rain/showers, some cloud but also some sunshine. Perhaps a slight upgrade on what I was previously expecting.

Speaking of upgrades, for those that use the website there might be some downtime this weekend, as I’m migrating to a newly re-built site. You won’t see much difference, the design is the same – but the new version is built in languages I use in my day-to-day work (TypeScript instead of PHP) so I can extend it easily, and build new features…maybe. It’s what I do to have fun.

Thanks to Suzanne for the photograph.

So the general picture sees various areas of low pressure around, but none close enough to impact our weather right now.

Thursday will start sunny. Fair-weather cloud will bubble up, with a 20% chance of a shower – but always some sunny spells too. Around 17’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though some high cloud later, down to around 6’C.

Good Friday starts with hazy sunshine. Rain will be edging east very slowly and haphazardly, some uncertainty as to when (perhaps if) it arrives. At worst, it will arrive any time from around midday, patchy and light/moderate – not much in the way of rain. More likely it arrives in the evening – still patchy and light/moderate. A small chance that it never quite gets here at all, and stays to our west. Somewhere between 15’C and 17’C depending on when the rain arrives. Showery rain probable overnight, no lower than around 10’C.

Saturday maybe sees some showery rain still in the morning, but the low pressure is spinning back on itself, and the rain will head back west. A lot of cloud around for much of the day but it will get brighter in the afternoon, and maybe outright sunny by the end of the day. Around 15’C. A fair amount of cloud overnight, a small chance of a shower, down to around 6’C.

By Sunday low pressure will be taking a more southerly track over France – we are definitely getting lucky this weekend!

Easter Sunday will be a bit mixed, a fair amount of cloud around and a chance of a shower or two, say a 50% chance. But also some sunshine or hazy sunshine at times. Around 16’C – give or take, depending on sunshine amounts. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Easter Monday has a bit more uncertainty as the models are already notably different by this point (the spin-back of the weekend’s low is difficult for models to handle), but broadly similar weather should ensue. Some sunshine or hazy sunshine at times, quite a lot of cloud and a fair chance of a couple of showers – say around a 60% chance. Plausible that actually we have quite frequent and heavy showers – but more likely just a couple, if that. Temperatures could be anywhere from 14’C to 19’C.

Likewise for Tuesday not especially high confidence, but broadly sunny spells and scattered showers – temperatures more likely a little cooler, say 13’C to 15’C kind of range.

Still a chance of showers on Wednesday, but otherwise mixed, some cloud some sunny spells. Around 16’C or so.

A trend back to something more settled as high pressure builds is the more likely outcome from there.

Uncertain on sunshine and cloud amounts, along with wind direction – I wouldn’t be hugely surprised if it was cooler and cloudier, but exceptionally low confidence on anything other than dry being more likely.

High pressure still likely around for early May, and more likely to be in a position conducive for warmth and sunshine.

No strong signals for after that – warmish and mixed, some pleasant weather, some showery days seems more likely.

Early suggestions for June/July have high pressure focused over Scandinavia (delayed SSW impact?!), which would mean very warm/hot spells more likely than normal, but also low pressure probably would be close by to our west quite often – so downpours and thunderstorms more likely than normal too.

If both June and July were much warmer but also much wetter than normal (at least in terms of total rainfall amounts), with around normal amounts of sunshine, that would be a reasonable guide right now.

Maybe June has the stronger signal for downpours than July.

Obviously June/July are a long way away, and things do change. It wouldn’t take a huge change from current expectations for both to be glorious but heatwave kind of months…nor would it take a huge change for them to be kind of a washout.

Enjoy your Easter break, for those that do get some time off!…

Low pressure is back, though it isn’t an especially wet outlook – and there will be some pleasant sunny days too. Did we really just have 3 weeks of pretty much unbroken sunshine? Was it even 4 weeks? I lost count.

No photographs so you’ll have to contend with one of mine, from Notting Hill.

The general set-up sees low pressure taking over, the main area currently towards Iceland, with a cut-off low in part of the same system, just to the north-west of Spain – and heading our way for Tuesday.

Today isn’t too bad, a mostly sunny start (one or two stray fog patches) but quickly clouding over. A few showers around in the morning and early afternoon, they should be light/moderate in nature, and a bit of brightness at times. Around 14’C in south-westerly breeze. Cloudy overnight with some occasional rain, no lower than around 10’C.

Tuesday may start with some rain, the timing of the overnight rain is quite uncertain. Otherwise quite cloudy but with some sunny spells – showers will develop, likely heavy, possibly very heavy and/or thundery, and perhaps turning into general rain by the end of the day, though that aspect is uncertain. Quite warm and a little humid, around 17’C. Worth stressing a fair dollop of uncertainty for Tuesday. Rain/showers gradually clearing north and west overnight, and likely dry for much of the night – though some uncertainty again. Down to around 6’C.

Wednesday more likely starts sunny, though there might still be some cloud around from Tuesday’s low pressure system. Either way there should be good spells of sunshine for most of the rest of the day, reaching around 15’C. Clear skies and a chilly night likely, down to around 2’C.

Thursday looks a reasonable day too. Sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud bubbling up, and a 40% chance of a shower or two, but nothing especially heavy if you do catch one. Around 17’C or so and feeling quite warm again. Clear spells for much of the night, though tending to cloud over later. Down to around 3’C.

Good Friday sees the next low pressure system move in – though there is some uncertainty as to how it behaves, and hence how much (or how little) rain we receive.

A mostly cloudy day with some rain at times – but the rain tending to be on the light and patchy side, perhaps more moderate at times. Around 14’C, give or take.

Very low confidence for Saturday, but the current suggestion is that low pressure spins back on itself and heads back west, before heading south. It’s an unusual movement, but assuming the models are right (and my reading of them) this would lead to a reasonably sunny day, with temperatures around 16’C.

Less likely outcomes would be for something cloudier, cooler and showery instead.

Easter Sunday is likewise uncertain, I’d suggest a mixture of sunny spells and cloudier spells is more likely, with a chance of a shower or two, and around 15’C. A wet day is unlikely.

I’m pretty much guessing for Easter Monday as the models are all over the place, dry more likely than wet, sunny/cloudy/mixed roughly as likely as each other, quite warm slightly more likely than quite cool.

I’ll try and do the next forecast on Thursday morning – it will take another couple of days for the Easter forecast to firm up, though I think we are almost there for Friday’s forecast – it is the days after which are uncertain.

Still expecting a return to sunshine and warmth for later in the month.…

Two more very pleasant days, then low pressure is back for a while.

Thanks to Chickena for the glorious photograph.

We start with high pressure in charge, but it is being squeezed by low pressure towards Portugal which will push north, and low pressure to the west of Iceland which will move south-east – and the latter will become our dominant feature.

Friday will see long spells of sunshine all day, once any stray patches of low cloud/mist have cleared. A little high cloud but mostly sunshine. Warm, 22’C should be reached, or close to. Clear skies overnight, down to around 5’C.

Saturday starts sunny. Some high cloud will spread from the south during the morning, and gradually skies will get hazier – but still very pleasant. Again it will be warm, 22’C feels realistic once more. Fairly cloudy in the evening and overnight, one or two scattered and possibly heavy showers around in the evening and first part of the night. Down to around 10’C.

What a glorious run of weather that was.

Sunday won’t actually be that bad, quite cloudy in the morning, maybe one or two light/moderate showers, tending to be somewhat sunnier in the afternoon, with some cloud. 17’C still feasible. Fairly cloudy at first overnight, more in the way of clear spells later – a stray shower possible, down to around 6’C.

By Monday, low pressure continues its encroachment.

Sunny spells and scattered showers is the theme – some uncertainty on the distribution of showers and they may well be focused to the west of us, in which case we’ll stay dry with some sunny spells, some cloud – but I’d say around a 40% chance of at least a couple of showers. Reaching around 16’C, give or take. Fairly cloudy overnight, perhaps some rain later.

Tuesday is uncertain. It looks like a plume of rain will develop and spread north, but whether it will cross over the UK and bring a wet spell is uncertain, say a 60% chance it will. And then a 40% chance that it is to the east of the UK instead, and we stay with some sunny spells.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday is sunny spells, some cloud, and some showers. More likely temperatures lower, say around 13’C. Not especially high confidence – there is a small chance of a spell of rain instead. Probably quite chilly overnight.

Again not especially high confidence for Thursday, but more likely a dry or mostly dry day, some cloud, some sunshine, a small chance of a shower – and around 13’C.

A chance of rain either overnight or Good Friday, though again uncertainty quite high on this.

A showery theme looks more likely for Easter, though that would mean some sunshine at times.

A washout looks unlikely – any more than one day of rain seems unlikely. Likewise a return to glorious sunshine for the whole weekend looks unlikely, but there could indeed be some sunny and warmish weather.

So expect something mixed.

Suggestions remain for a return to warmer and sunnier weather for the end of April and beginning of May.

A mixed May looks more likely, often warm – especially later in May, sometimes showery – also more likely later in May.

Enjoy the rest of the sunshine.…

A change is on the horizon, but there is 5 more days of glorious sunshine to come, maybe a 6th…probably not a 7th.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

High pressure remains in charge for most of Europe – low pressure systems either far to the west in the Atlantic ocean, or very far east Europe.

Some early mist/low cloud this morning but this will lift into long spells of sunshine all day, maybe a little fair weather cloud. Reaching 16’C – the easterly breeze still taking the edge off, though 16’C is very respectable for early April anyway. Mostly clear skies overnight, a little mist/low cloud in places by dawn, down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Any early mist/low cloud will quickly lift on Tuesday, good spells of sunshine to follow though some high cloud making it a little hazy in the morning, and a bit more fair weather cloud in the afternoon. Reaching around 16’C in a light easterly breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight, though a chance of some low cloud rolling in from the North Sea by dawn. Down to around 2’C, a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

A bit of uncertainty for Wednesday morning, likely more cloud around than there has been to start the day which may well take a little while to burn back – but it almost certainly will, and much of the day will thereafter be sunny, or reasonably so. Around 15’C, give or take – depending on how long it takes for the sun to come out. The North Sea cloud coming back overnight, a mostly cloudy night once it arrives, down to around 5’C.

Thursday starts cloudy. The sun probably breaks through by roughly midday, and thereafter it will be sunny – though some uncertainty on the timing. Temperatures reaching around 16’C – but give or take, depending on how long it stays cloudy for. Reasonably clear skies overnight though some high cloud spreading down from the north, down to around 4’C.

By Friday our high pressure is being squeezed – both by low pressure towards Portugal, and low pressure systems towards our north.

But it is still in control and there will be plenty more sunshine, if probably slightly hazy. We’ll have lost the cooling easterly, so temperatures around 20’C – perhaps 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though a chance of some fog patches by dawn, down to around 6’C.

Saturday most likely hangs onto the good weather, though I wouldn’t say I’m 100% certain. So most likely it will be sunny after any early fog patches clear – though probably becoming cloudier later in the day. Around 20’C or so. An afternoon shower possible. Uncertain overnight but the shower chance increases somewhat.

Sunday is uncertain – broadly speaking sunny spells, some cloud, a chance of a shower – though it could be shower-free and fairly sunny, likewise it could be mostly cloudy and rather showery. Roughly around 16’C to 20’C so still warmish.

Next week looks pretty mixed – some rain/showers on some days, sunshine at other times, and temperatures fairly respectable, more likely in the range of 13’C to 18’C.

Early signs for Easter weekend would suggest the mixed theme is more likely to continue.

High pressure probably returns for late April and into early May.…

Yet more sunshine – can you handle all the sunshine? Warm at first, less sure later.

Just a quick note to e-mail subscribers – I’m probably changing provider over the next week or so, just testing something new – if it stops working please let me know!

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Currently we see high pressure close to our north, and low pressure towards Spain/Portugal (again!) – we are pretty lucky with the intricacies of this set-up which is allowing a more southerly and warm flow right now, it would only need the slightest of synoptic changes for it to be closer to 10’C.

We are probably well overdue all this sunshine though.

So we start Friday with some mist in places, some mid/high-level cloud around too – the cloud will mostly lift to long spells of sunshine all day, but some high cloud likely to remain so a little hazy at times. Warm, 21’C, maybe 22’C – which should make it the warmest day of the year so far. Clear skies for much of the night, down to around 5’C – a chance of some low cloud by dawn.

Saturday may start with some low cloud and mist in places, but any of such will swiftly break up into long spells of sunshine once more. The breeze more easterly so not as warm, but we should reach 18’C, maybe 19’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine with very little cloud once more. The easterly breeze now a cooler source of air though, so temperatures more normal for the time of year – around 15’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and a fairly cold night – down to around 2’C, a chance of a frost in more sheltered spots.

Monday sees long spells of sunshine once more, a little bit of fair-weather cloud. The breeze much lighter, and temperatures around 15’C, maybe 16’C. Clear skies overnight – down to around 1’C, a frost possible.

Not much change for Tuesday – high pressure in control and centred just to the east of the UK, warming up over Spain/Portugal – cooler through eastern Europe.

So, long spells of sunshine, a bit of fair-weather cloud. Temperatures roughly around 16’C – some scope for it being a couple either side. Clear skies probable overnight, though some scope for some North Sea gloom spilling in. Down to around 2’C.

By this point, the exact positioning of high pressure becomes tricky, and hence confidence wanes – small differences in positioning can make quite chunky changes in terms of temperatures and cloud amounts, when high pressure is in this kind of position.

So with lower confidence, Wednesday probably sees more sunny spells – though a more of a risk of some cloud around. Around 14’C more likely, but could easily be a few either side.

Again Thursday and Friday more likely on the sunnier side of the spectrum, more likely temperatures are in the range of 15’C to 18’C – but there’s a small (ish) chance it could be cloudy and cool instead.

Early signs of a change in the pattern either next weekend or early next week – a transition into something more showery (possibly cooler too), though very early signs and a long way away in terms of weather forecasting.

Roughly 50/50 as to whether we hang onto the sunny and warmish weather for Saturday. Lower chances by Sunday.

Definite potential for high pressure and warmth to return before the end of April though.

Have a good weekend and enjoy the sunshine!…