Weather Forecast For Reading & Berkshire

Welcome to my winter weather forecast 2025/26 for Reading and the surrounding areas, though also can probably apply more widely.

Starting with the usual caveat that seasonal forecasting is experimental, some of this will be wrong – a successful forecast would see more right than wrong overall.

Plus events happen that shift weather patterns, such as the recent technical sudden stratospheric warming, which initially increased the chance of cold weather patterns, but as it played out, it seems it has enhanced the usual westerly Atlantic-driven pattern instead. This forecast, at least for December/January is significantly different from what I was expecting a couple of weeks ago.

And thanks to Margaret for the photograph.

Background Signals

La Niña is in evidence though weak – this tends to mean colder flows are more likely in late autumn/early winter (as we had in mid/late November) westerly flows more likely in late winter.

On the flip side, the Quasi-Bienniel Oscilation is in easterly mode, which reduces the chance of westerly flows.

The SSW event has been what is known as a reflective event, and the primary effect of this is to strengthen westerly flows – so this will likely impact over the next few weeks.

The Madden Julien Osciliation is currently in a phase which may lead to colder weather patterns in late December, but possibly the SSW overrides this.

The stratospheric polar vortex is on the weak side, despite strengthening after the SSW – and my guess is that it won’t be so strong this year, which could lead to a lessening of westerly flows.

Overall, one has to conclude that the background signals are rather conflicting this season.

December

The first half of December looks fairly unsettled, wind and rain some days, brighter on others though some showers possible. Temperatures often around average, sometimes mild.

Around, or just after mid-December, high pressure may develop over or close to the UK, allowing for some drier weather, perhaps colder – overnight fog/frost possible. Cloudy skies more likely than sunny skies during the day.

However, this is quite uncertain – and weather fronts probably would occasionally push through bringing some, but not a huge amount of rain.

Suggestions that it becomes more broadly unsettled and milder by the end of the month.

Overall I expect above-average rainfall, above-average temperatures, around or slightly-below average sunshine amounts.

Confidence level of 70%, though lower for the second half of December.

January

More likely, January starts on the unsettled side with wind and rain at times – temperatures broadly on the mild side, though some short colder spells of north-westerly winds very possible.

My guess is that around mid-month, perhaps a little earlier, we start to see high pressure to the east blocking progress of the weather systems. So it becomes often dry, often cloudy – perhaps overnight fog, possibly some overnight frost. Temperatures generally around average though some chilly weather at times.

Perhaps more unsettled towards the end of the month as low pressure systems try to break down the block.

Overall I expect slightly above-average rainfall, slightly above-average temperatures and slightly-below average sunshine amounts.

Confidence level of around 50% – too many conflicting background signals to be really happy with this, there certainly is potential that it could be wetter for the whole month.

February

Low confidence for February though a fairly mixed start is perhaps the more likely outcome, with high pressure further north-east – not impossible there could be some colder weather from this set-up.

After that, more likely high pressure regains control, though in what position is uncertain – so expect drier weather, hopefully more sunshine, but possibly on the cold side at times.

Overall I expect slightly below-average rainfall, around average temperatures and around or maybe slightly-above average sunshine amounts.

Confidence level of 20% – I’m wary both of La Niña seasons involved unsettled Februrys so it could be much wetter than normal – but also the weaker stratospheric vortex could be disrupted by another SSW, which could be more likely to provide cold/wintry weather.

February really could be anything.

Summary And Spring Thoughts

Quite a hard forecast this season, especially for January and February – both months could easily be very wrong. I will update in the usual forecasts when things change.

Very early to be thinking about spring, but I’d currently suggest March and April more likely to see some colder weather at times on current weather patterns. No strong signals on rainfall amounts this far ahead, but broadly around or slightly-below average would be my guess. Maybe time to plan that spring holiday!

In summary, wetter earlier in winter, somewhat drier and colder in late winter though becoming highly uncertain.

Hello and welcome to my autumn weather forecast, aimed at Reading/Berkshire area but will be general enough to apply to most of south/central England.

First up, the usual caveats – forecasting further than 5 days ahead is generally difficult, so forecasting for a season is very much experimental and can only be talked about in general terms.

Some of this forecast will be wrong. Hopefully more will be right than wrong – that’s my general aim.

That said, both my spring and summer forecasts have gone broadly very well, I suggested summer might be “one for the ages”, and I feel you could describe it as so – it was the hottest on record, with above-average sunshine and below-average rainfall.

Alas, the autumn forecast looks trickier.

Also, thanks to Amanda for the photograph. I had some stunning photographs sent in, but I didn’t want to use anything with too much sunshine in…for reasons you’ll soon read about!

Background Signals

Background signals tend to not have too much use in autumn, but I’ll cover them briefly.

ENSO is currently neutral, though it looks like we may go into La Niña as autumn goes on, which would tend to increase the chance of westerly/north-westerly flows (some suggestions we may go into a significant El Niño next year, but not sure how reliable this is).

Sea surface temperatures remain well above normal around the UK, so that suggests temperatures are more likely to be above normal – any colder weather from the north would likely be diluted.

The hurricane season is the wildcard – prior to Hurricane Erin’s development, I was expecting a drier and warmer start to autumn, which has clearly been blown out of the water. It really was a game-changing system. Might another major hurricane change our weather patterns again? Who knows.

September

September starts unsettled – a brief dry and warm spell for the first weekend, then back to unsettled with spells of wind and rain for the next week, a chance of a named storm.

Around mid-month, there’s a fairly good chance of high pressure trying to build across from the south-west, so generally drier, sunnier and warmer for a time in the second half of the month, though probably it won’t last too long – with the end of the month more likely to be unsettled, with the potential for notably strong winds/heavy rain.

This does assume no major hurricane developing towards USA and changing our patterns.

Overall I expect somewhat above-average temperatures, around average sunshine amounts and somewhat above-average rainfall.

Confidence level of 60%.

October

October more likely starts on the unsettled side, with further spells of wind and rain, though this likely trends further east – which means into week two (give or take) less rain, but probably quite cloudy and breezy, with winds more likely from the north-west so a cooler direction.

Low confidence, but high pressure to our south may have more influence in the second half of the month, so a drier spell though I’m not currently expecting it to be especially sunny or warm – that would depend on positioning of high pressure.

Overall I expect around average temperatures, somewhat below-average sunshine amounts and somewhat above-average rainfall.

Confidence level of 50%.

November

Currently I expect high pressure to have more influence in November, though probably positioned to our south-west or west, which tends to mean cloudy affairs in late autumn.

So broadly a fairly cloudy month, some sunny days at times, some weather fronts at times will likely bring some rain/wind – those more likely in the first half of the month.

Perhaps a greater chance than normal of colder north-westerly or northerly flows later in the month, if La Niña develops, which would at least mean sunnier weather – some overnight frosts possible too.

Overall I expect slightly above-average temperatures (though perhaps cooler than average by day, milder by night – due to the cloud), below-average sunshine amounts and below-average rainfall.

Confidence level of 50%.

Summary And Early Winter Thoughts

So a pretty mixed autumn seems more likely currently – drier towards the end, wetter towards the beginning.

Confidence levels are lower than they were for my summer forecast – there are some conflicting signals in the long range models I use, and not really much to go on in terms of background signals.

Current thoughts for winter are for dry and mild weather in December, more mixed later in winter, with the best chance of cold/snow being in February. But of course, this will likely change…it is sooooo far away.

Happy autumn!

Welcome to my summer weather forecast 2025 for Reading & Berkshire, though more or less it would apply to much of England, should you be reading from further away.

I’ll start with the usual caveat in that seasonal forecasting is impossible to get fully correct, a broad brush approach is the best we can do at the moment – and even then, meteorological events will change it.

Hopefully more is right than wrong, that is my aim.

My spring forecast was a pretty good guide, I was concerned that the very late sudden stratospheric warming event would cause some cold spells, but they didn’t transpire – otherwise there was lots of blocking highs to our north, plenty of sunshine, often warm – in fact record-breaking sunshine and warmth for the whole season.

Also a quick thank you to Helen for the photograph – a charity donation will be sent when you let me know which. And also a thank you to those still sending them for the normal forecasts – they would be more boring without them.

Background Signals

Always less to go on in terms of background signals in summer.

The late sudden stratospheric warming (or very early final warming of the stratospheric vortex, which it is probably classed as) does tend to marry up with drier and hotter than normal summers following.

Well above-average sea surface temperatures should increase temperatures over the UK when we have high pressure, though may help to increase the jetstream strength when it is over us, due to the temperature contrast.

Likewise the dry ground due to the lack of rain since February, will increase temperatures when it is sunny, and likely also reduce cloud amounts.

Neither El Niño or La Niña are in play at the moment.

And that is all I can think of. Onto the expectations.

June

June starts somewhat unsettled, a couple of fine days but more days will see at least some showers or rain – breezy/windy at times too, and cooler than normal.

From week 2 it should warm up, still the chance of some showers on some days, but also a chance of some short very warm/hot spells too.

High pressure should build more broadly from around mid-month to bring much more in the way of dry, warm and sunny days – probably quite hot some days, some cloudy starts possible though depending on wind directions.

Perhaps a greater chance of showers at the very end of the month.

Overall I expect above-average temperatures, somewhat above-average sunshine, and rainfall amounts slightly below-average – unless you get a notable downpour.

Confidence level around 75%.

July

Fairly weak signals for July, though there is a fairly consistent but weak suggestion for high pressure to be close to the UK – positioning will be key, as always.

To start the month, there is a greater chance than normal of some heavy showers/thunderstorms, but also some very warm/hot sunshine too.

My semi-educated guess is that it will settle down more broadly for much of the rest of the month, with high pressure in control, and plenty of very warm/hot sunshine.

Temperatures and the chances of thundery outbreaks will depend on the positioning of high pressure, there is some suggestion this could be close to our east which could put us in a loop of short hot/very hot spells followed by significant thundery breakdowns – but this is very low confidence this far out. There are other suggestions that high pressure is more likely positioned over the UK, or even slightly to the north which would reduce thundery outbreak chances, and keep things more normal (still very warm/hot) in terms of temperatures.

Overall I expect above-average temperatures, above-average sunshine – rainfall amounts could be anything compared to average, depending on if you get some particularly heavy downpours on the showery days.

Confidence level around 70%.

August

Less confidence for August, which should be no surprise as it is two months away (and normally the start of hurricane season which can cause changes in weather patterns for us) – however there remain signals for high pressure to be close to the UK.

So my assumption is that there will more dry, sunny and very warm/hot weather for much of the month – though how hot will depend on where high pressure is positioned.

Certainly a chance of some afternoon downpours developing on some days – I’d suggest later in the month more likely, though if high pressure is to our east, then there is a chance of going into a loop of short hot/very hot spells followed by thundery breakdowns.

Overall I expect above-average temperatures, above-average sunshine amounts, and rainfall – well, less days of rain than normal, but amounts will depend on whether you get some notable downpours.

Confidence level around 60%.

Summery And Early Autumn Thoughts

So, I’m suggesting a sunnier and hotter summer is more likely than not. To use one of those modern phrases, it could be a summer for the ages.

If we find out in 3 month’s time that it was the hottest and/or sunniest summer on record, or close to, then I would not be surprised.

However, the last time I stuck my neck out and predicted such a summer, it didn’t happen…so as always, take it with a teapot of salt.

There’s no particular compelling signals for autumn, early suggestions for September seem fairly mixed, hints of a drier than normal October/November.

Have a great summer! I think I’ll save my holiday time off (and holiday money) for later in the year.

Welcome to the Spring weather forecast 2025, aimed at Reading & Berkshire though probably applicable to most of the south of England, as I talk quite broad brush.

I shall start with the usual caveat – seasonal forecasting can only be experimental, background signals can give an idea of what to expect, but notable events can override such signals.

It looks like we are about to have a sudden stratospheric warming event, which is annoying timing, both for the accuracy of this forecast and for the prospects of good spring weather.

This does mean that I’m less confident than normal – I’d rather be doing this forecast in two weeks time, and I may well do an updated version if the sudden stratospheric warming event happens (likely) and it upturns current expectations.

In any case, no seasonal forecast from any forecaster will be completely accurate, except if they get exceptionally lucky. My winter forecast was alright – both January and February were wetter than I expected, but high pressure was in control for much of February as I expected, just in a slightly different place. December’s forecast was pretty good. I wouldn’t give myself especially high marks.

Also I’d like to thank everyone that contributes, both in terms of comments on the Facebook posts and especially the photographs that are sent to me to use…the forecasts look much more boring without them.

And for this forecast, thanks to Donna for the cover photograph – a small donation to the charity of your choice will be made shortly.

Background Signals

Background signals tend to mean less in spring/summer, though the one overriding factor is the likely sudden stratospheric warming event.

Such events often (but not always) lead to high pressure blocks in positions that favour cold weather spreading down from the Arctic, or from Russia – so northerly or easterly winds.

Whilst a northerly flow will always be cooler/colder than normal at any time of year, easterly winds from around mid-April onwards can be warmer than normal, depending on the exact air source, and how much North Sea cloud is involved.

Effects from a sudden stratospheric warming (SWW) event tend to take 2-6 weeks to filter down into the troposphere (our level of the atmosphere).

Until the event has happened, and still it is possible that it is just a notable warming of the stratosphere and not an SSW, we can only talk in chances of something happening.

The other background signals include a weak La Niña and the QBO being in westerly phase, which should increase the chances of westerly flows. That said, these were also in affect during the winter, and we had reduced westerly flows compared to normal.

Conclusion? No idea.

March

Well let’s start with the bit I know – March will start sunny with overnight frost and/or fog, and temperatures will recover to a little above average. Something more showery likely for a time for the second week – mild or quite warm at first, possibly colder later.

Uncertainty increases notably for the second half. Something changeable broadly looks the theme, though with high pressure close by more often than not. Said high pressure more likely in milder positions, though brief cold snaps will remain possible, in the mix. Overnight frosts still possible. Some showers and occasional rain but overall probably more dry and sunny days, than showery days.

Overall I expect above-average temperatures, somewhat above-average sunshine and somewhat below-average rainfall.

Confidence level around 50% – pretty low compared to what I can normally feel.

April

Confidence really drops off a cliff now, due to the probable sudden stratospheric warming event, and the unknown outcomes – though outcomes more likely to favour cold flows than normal.

I was very confident of high pressure being in control for April until recently, but one effect of an SSW event can be for the Arctic air to go flooding south to our west, over the Atlantic, which then blows up large areas of low pressure – we saw this last winter where SSW events led to something milder and wetter.

But I’m going to stick to the more likely outcome, which is colder and drier weather with high pressure either to our north/north-west or west – allowing colder flows from the north or east for the first half of April.

Variable amounts of sunshine and cloud from day to day, some showers likely – some sleet/snow would be possible. Colder than normal conditions more likely, but brief quite warm spells could be mixed in too. Overnight frosts still possible.

I’d assume high pressure to continue to be fairly close by for the latter half of April, again some changeable conditions, some showers possible some days, though temperatures more likely to be average or above-average.

Overall I expect around average temperatures, slightly above-average sunshine and slightly below-average rainfall.

Confidence level just 20%. Damn that sudden stratospheric warming event.

May

By this point the effects of the SSW event (assuming it happened and assuming it was impactful) lessen. Should high pressure be to our north, the resulting easterly winds would be warm by this point – though should it be to our west, northerly flows still chilly.

My best guess is that high pressure will be to our north to allow easterly flows, so often warm and sunny, though not always, for the start of May. Cloud spilling in from the North Sea overnight and leading to cloudy mornings – or possibly cool and cloudy days, is possible, in such a set-up.

As the month goes on, heavy showers will tend to increase in prominence across the south of England, with low pressure tending to be close by to our south, over France. Potential for some decent thunderstorms (or indecent if you don’t care for them). Likely still warm/very warm with sunny spells.

Overall I expect above-average temperatures, slightly above-average sunshine amounts and an average number of days of rain – rainfall totals could be anything, depending on how heavy any downpours are.

Confidence level of 40%.

Summary And Early Summer Thoughts

Yikes…lots of uncertainty. May holds the most promise for those looking out for sunshine and warmth, though I do expect all 3 months to be sunnier than normal. Anything outstanding wet looks unlikely, though who knows what the effect of the SSW will be – all I can talk about is more likely outcomes for now.

I wish the SSW event happened two weeks earlier, or I did my forecast two weeks later. Alas. Maybe I’ll do an updated version in two weeks but I doubt I’ll have time.

Early summer thoughts are for a fairly hot first half/two-thirds of summer, though I’d still expect some heavy showers at times – early signals for August are looking notably wet. But that is a very, very, very long way away.

And that is your Spring Weather Forecast 2025. Thoughts?!

Welcome to the winter weather forecast 2024/25 for Reading & Berkshire.

Firstly the usual caveats – seasonal forecasting is difficult, no seasonal forecast will ever be 100% correct, as it is bound to events on a local and global scale.

Seasonal forecasting is done mostly on a global level, and also thought of in monthly terms – for example, the background signals and long-range models could suggest higher than normal pressure is likely one month, but that wouldn’t stop one week or more being under low pressure, and wet.

So you should always expect any seasonal forecast as a rough guide at best, and remember that I’m not a professional – just an amateur forecaster with a half-decent grip on what models are suggesting, and a decent writing ability.

My autumn forecast was…alright…I picked some things out correctly, for example the greater chance of northerly flows than normal in November, but then I also picked out a wet start to November, and it was dry.

Also a massive thanks to those who sent photographs in, and more so to those who do on a regular basis.

Thanks to Clare who’s photograph I’ve chosen – a small charity donation will be sent as a thank you, please let me know to whom.

Background Signals

Winter always has more impactful background signals than any other season, but that never is the whole story – events do and will deviate from this.

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is currently in westerly phase, which increases the chance of westerly winds, and hence milder, wetter conditions.

La Niña, though not the strongest, does tend to increase the chance of northerly flows in autumn and early winter (as we have already seen).

Sea surface temperatures around most of the UK, and especially to the west, are warmer than normal – so this will mean temperatures more likely to be higher than normal. However, to our north, sea surface temperatures are colder than normal – so northerly flows may have more impact in terms of cold than normal.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast negative for the start of winter, which can increase the chances of colder northerly flows.

Finally, the Madden Julien Oscillation, which is only helpful (questionably so in my view) over the more medium-term, currently is forecasted to end up in phases which favour cold weather later in December.

A sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) cannot be discounted, which is where the stratosphere (the atmospheric layer above our troposphere) suddenly warms, which can break apart the polar vortex and cause cold weather to flood down in our direction – the Beast From The East in 2018 being the classic example.

However, we had 3 such events last winter, a once in 250 years occurence – the first two arguably gave us much milder and wetter conditions, as the cold air from the Arctic, if I remember correctly, flooded south but to our west – and hitting the (relatively) warm Atlantic ocean caused large areas of low pressure – and the mild/wet conditions. And also caused the latter part of my winter forecast to fail!

And the third happened in March, too late for wintry weather but then caused a cooler than normal spring.

I’ve read arguments that La Niña combined with a westerly QBO increases the chance of an SSW occurring over winter…which is what we have. But not sure what to make of that.

So quite a lot of different background signals, but definitely some patterns including increased chances of northerly flows in early winter – as such it is time to start the forecast.

December

December looks a very variable month, especially to start. It should settle down after the first week, with temperatures around normal or a little below, though some showers possible in the easterly flow. Frost/fog will be possible.

After mid-month, something more changeable looks more likely with further heavy rain and strong winds at times – chances of more named storms, though temperatures most of the time above average – short colder snaps still possible.

Towards Christmas and into the New Year period, colder northerly flows become more possible, though westerly flows could still dominate. Expect changeable conditions, wind and rain at times, some sunnier and colder days too. Again, quite a mix seems most likely, though perhaps veering towards dry more than wet.

Overall I expect above average rainfall, around or slightly below-average sunshine, around average temperatures.

Confidence level 80%.

January

January again looks a fairly mixed month. The start of the month has greater chances of drier and colder weather, before becoming unsettled once more. Northerly flows very possible, named storms very possible.

In the second half of the month, something milder and changeable seems more likely – some rain at times, but also some dry spells, if perhaps cloudy and dry.

Overall I expect around average rainfall, slightly below-average sunshine, and slightly above-average temperatures.

Confidence level 60%.

February

Suggestions for February see higher than normal pressure over Europe, so something milder and drier than normal seems the more likely general outcome for the first half of the month – though some weather fronts will likely get through to bring some rain, albeit more limited amounts.

More likely it stays mild or very mild in the latter half of February, with dry conditions more likely than wet.

A sudden stratospheric warming event would increase the chance of cold and dry for February, considerably…but this is impossible to know at this stage.

Overall I expect rainfall to be below average, sunshine around or slightly-above average, temperatures above average, though with some uncertainty towards the end.

Confidence level 50%.

Summary And Early Spring Thoughts

So a pretty mixed winter seems more likely, though not quite as wet as it has been with high pressure playing more of a role than it has the last 18 months or so. Any cold spells more likely in the first 6 weeks of winter, and those from the north.

Early signs for spring, assuming no sudden stratospheric warming, are for a much warmer and drier first half of spring. Oh do hurry up!