Cooler though calmer for most of the weekend – unsettled conditions return again late Sunday.

Thanks to Lene for the photograph.

So we start Friday with our low pressure system from the last couple of days moving into Europe, and dragging some cooler air behind it. It does at least allow high pressure to then build.

Friday morning sees further rain spread south for a time, potentially heavy. This will start to clear around lunchtime, rain becoming patchy and the sun breaking through. During the afternoon there will be plenty of cloud but increasing amounts of sunshine, one or two scattered showers around. Notably cooler at around 13’C, and quite windy at times. Mostly clear skies overnight, a bit of cloud, around 5’C.

Saturday will be sunny all day – perhaps a bit of cloud later in the afternoon. Alas, only reaching around 13’C or so. Fairly clear skies overnight, though high cloud will be spreading across from the west as the next low pressure system approaches. Down to around 5’C.

Sunday sees hazy sunshine to start. Gradually cloud will thicken – some uncertainty as to when rain will start to arrive, potentially as early as midday, but more likely mid/late afternoon. Showery at first, becoming persistent and heavy in the evening and overnight, with strong winds at times. Around 14’C by day, 10’C in the evening but again up to 14’C overnight as a warmer sector of air passes over.

Monday is a little sketchy on details, though low pressure will be in charge so likely cloudy, probably windy at times, mostly in the morning. Rain still possible in the morning – and bits and pieces later perhaps. Around 16’C or so. Skies likely clearing overnight, down to around 8’C.

For Tuesday, low pressure will be close to our east, which means fairly cloudy with a good chance of some showers at times too – uncertain as to the extent at this stage. Some sunny spells also in the mix. Around 15’C.

Lower confidence by Wednesday but suggestions are the high pressure will build to our north, and that low pressure close to our east doesn’t really move anywhere.

Likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum, perhaps some showers and fairly cool in a breeze at around 14’C. Though fairly low confidence.

Again low confidence going forwards, but the slightly more likely outcome sees high pressure close for Thursday/Friday – generally drier, perhaps some sunshine. And the slightly more likely outcome for next weekend sees low pressure try to push some showery rain across.

Have a good weekend.…

Back to rain, back to reality.

Thanks to Sarah for the photograph.

We start the week with a thundery low that developed over Spain/Portugal last week – and there is the next system developing out west too.

Monday starts cloudy with outbreaks of rain, heavy at times. This will very slowly edge west, though whether it clears Reading properly is 50/50 – before pivoting and heading back west later. If is does clear west then sunny spells are possible for a time this afternoon, with the odd shower – but it really is 50/50 as to whether it does, or it stays cloudy with showery rain. During the evening, timing uncertain, the area of showery rain heads back east once more – the odd heavy burst still mixed in, but generally it will be starting to fade, and it will be dry by dawn. Around 16’C by day. 13’C by night.

Tuesday looks rather cloudy, especially in the morning – one or two light(ish) showers around too. Some more bright/sunny spells later in the afternoon, and reaching around 18’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, a chance of one or two showers spreading up from the south-west in the latter part of the night towards dawn. Around 11’C.

Wednesday looks fairly cloudy as the next low pressure system develops and heads our way. Some showers during the day, though likely also some hazy sunshine at times – reaching around 16’C, maybe a tad more. Heavy rain spreading up from the south-west in the evening, more likely arriving around 6/7pm, but could be a couple of hours either side. Heavy rain continuing at times overnight, around 13’C.

Low pressure still in charge on Thursday – and cooler weather will be ready to spread down from the north again too.

Most likely Thursday sees some sunny spells but lots of cloud and a fair few heavy showers, potentially with thunder. A small chance instead that we remain under a band of rain – but this should be further north than here. Around 17’C and breezy at times. A chance of some showers overnight, and the cooler air starts to spread south, down to around 8’C.

Friday most likely starts cloudy with some bits of rain as Wednesday night’s weather front sinks back south-east. At some point it will be replaced by sunny spells. Feeling cooler in the northerly wind, around 14’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and becoming chilly, down to around 3’C.

Saturday sees a ridge of high pressure settle things down – some good spells of sunshine, a bit of cloud developing but a pleasant day – if on the cooler side at 14’C. A chilly night probable, though how chilly will develop on the level of cloud cover as the next low pressure system approaches – it could be down to anywhere between 2’C and 8’C.

Sunday sees the next low pressure system approach, but we probably get away with a dry and fine day with hazy sunshine and temperatures around 15’C – though fairly low confidence. Then heavy rain and strong winds move in for the evening/overnight.

Next week likely starts showery – but there’s a fair chance of high pressure building over the south of England to settle things down, with some warmish weather possibly spreading up from the south too.…

Warm for a few days but gradually becoming more unsettled – and then much cooler later next week.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph.

So the general set-up sees a warm easterly flow remain over the UK, though low pressure to the west of Portugal will drift towards us over the weekend (or I’m bringing it back from holiday?!).

Friday starts with low cloud, some mist/fog patches too. This will lift during the morning, but at the same time an area of instability moving in from the east will potentially drive some showers to develop as soon as the sun comes out, during the morning and into lunchtime – say a 50% chance of catching a shower, possibly heavy, a chance of thunder. By mid-afternoon the shower threat will have moved west, not totally impossible to develop one here but unlikely – and by then mostly sunny and very warm, at around 23’C in the easterly breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, one or two well-scattered heavy showers may drift up from France, perhaps some elevated lightning, but not especially likely. Around 15’C.

Early cloud will clear on Saturday to sunny spells. Heavy showers will develop during the morning, perhaps thundery – though these will drift west during the afternoon so showers less likely from early afternoon onwards, though still possible. Around a 60% chance of catching a shower or two, perhaps also thundery. Increasing sunshine later, very warm at around 24’C. Cloud and more heavy showers spreading up from the south by around late evening, if not general showery rain – thunder possible. Around 14’C.

Sunday generally looks cloudy with showery rain, often heavy, perhaps very heavy, a small chance of some thunder mixed in. Welcome back to the UK for me! That said, I should also stress that there will likely be dry spells – some uncertainty on exact details on when and where the most rain will fall. Around 20’C and feeling a bit humid too. Some cloud overnight, around 12’C – a chance of mist/fog patches by dawn.

By Monday the low pressure is still around, though starting to fade a bit. Sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and a few showers – around a 70% chance of catching at least a couple, possibly on the heavy side. Still around 20’C which isn’t too bad for late September. Clear spells at first overnight, but cloud and some bits of rain crossing later in the night, as the low clears. Around 13’C.

A calmer day for Tuesday, sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud, a 30% or so chance of a shower or two, though more likely light/moderate. Around 19’C. Cloud thickening overnight with rain spreading from the west.

Wednesday sees an Atlantic low pressure system moving across, more of a traditional autumn vibe.

Some uncertainty on the exact track, but either we’ll see general rain, or showers – and it will be on the windy side. More likely we’ll remain in the milder air, so around 17’C.

For Thursday we’ll be in a cooler north-westerly flow. Sunny spells and showers the broad theme, and temperatures closer to 14’C. Yuck. A chilly night likely.

The cooler flow continues for Friday, though likely more in the way of sunshine and less showers. Around 13’C. Likely on the chilly side overnight.

The cooler weather most likely remains for next weekend, otherwise uncertain.

Enjoy the probable last of the summer warmth for this year…though I wouldn’t rule out some warmish weather at times in October.…

Ola from the south of Portugal! Hot and sunny here, but also the UK won’t be too far behind in terms of glorious weather this week either.

Thanks to Lene for the photograph.

We start the week with high pressure building in from the south-west, which will slowly move towards Scandinavia as the week progresses.

Early cloud will quickly clear to good sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud and high cloud, but mostly fine and sunny. Temperatures around 20’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though some patches of low cloud moving in from the North Sea towards dawn. Down to around 8’C.

Tuesday will see some patches of low cloud at times in the morning, but also sunny spells – and generally increasing amounts of sunshine as the day goes on. Pleasantly warm, around 21’C but the easterly breeze picking up. Some clear spells, some patches of cloud overnight, down to around 11’C.

Wednesday starts with areas of low cloud, perhaps a bit of mist/fog. This will break up to leave long spells of sunshine, and temperatures will tick up to around 23’C or so. A notable breeze though. Low cloud, along with mist/fog in places will be more widespread overnight, but this keeps temperatures mild at 14’C.

Early mist/fog/low cloud will lift on Thursday to again leave long spells of very warm sunshine, around 24’C, maybe 25’C – though the easterly breeze remaining notable. Low cloud along with mist/fog patches again developing overnight, but mild once more at around 15’C.

By Friday, high pressure remains more or less in control – centred between Iceland and Norway, but a showery low over Spain/France starts to edge north.

Again the day likely starts with low cloud, perhaps mist/fog patches but this will soon lift into sunny spells. However, some cloud will bubble up and there will likely be some scattered heavy, thundery showers developing – say a 40% chance of catching one or two. Still warm, around 22’C, still breezy too. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight – still a chance of a shower and around 13’C.

Low pressure edge closer on Saturday, so sunny spells but cloud also bubbling up with a 50% chance of catching a couple of heavy, thundery showers. Very warm once more, around 24’C. Showers or showery rain possible overnight, though uncertain at this stage.

Sunday is uncertain but more likely we see showers or showery rain, perhaps some thunder mixed in.

A mixed week more likely for next week, though some signs that high pressure will try to build so we may get at least a couple of pleasant and warmish days – though also signs remain that something more broadly unsettled and autumnal arrives for either the end of September or beginning of October.

Enjoy the sunshine whilst it lasts! Next update will be Thursday/Friday morning, time for me go to do beach.…

Don’t worry, the warmth is coming back for a while, as high pressure settles things down. The Reading University site recorded just 2.3’C this morning…an unusually chilly night for mid-September.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure building in from the south-west.

This morning will be sunny. Fair-weather cloud will bubble up from around lunchtime onwards, but it will remain pleasant, if still cooler than normal for mid-September, at around 16’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and another chilly night, down to around 4’C – a grass frost possible.

Saturday starts sunny, though there will be some high cloud around making it hazy at times. Mostly this continues into the afternoon, the high cloud thickens a bit to make it hazier, and perhaps there will be a bit more general cloud around – but mostly it will be pleasant and temperatures recovering to 18’C. Enough high cloud overnight to stop temperatures dropping too much, down to around 7’C or so.

Sunday starts with hazy sunshine. A weak weather front will slowly spread down from the north-west in the afternoon, bringing more cloud and some showery rain, but the rain will be hit and miss, you may stay dry. Timing uncertain on the rain aspect, any time from late afternoon to late evening. Around 19’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, thanks to the weather front still struggling to clear – around 13’C.

Monday will be an improving picture – likely starting cloudy due to the weather front, this will slowly break up and move further south, allowing for increasing amounts of sunshine in the afternoon. A chance of some light showers/drizzle in the morning though. Warmer, around 21’C once the sun is out. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C, though a chance of fog forming by dawn.

By Tuesday the high pressure system centres itself just to the east of the UK, which allows an easterly breeze to pick up – but the continent is still quite hot at this time of year.

Good spells of sunshine, some high cloud, some fair-weather cloud but overall very pleasant and around 21’C. Clear spells for a time overnight, though a risk of some low cloud moving in from the North Sea. Mild overnight.

Any early low cloud will break up on Wednesday, to leave good spells of sunshine, some fair weather cloud and becoming very warm, around 24’C, though notably breezy too. Again a risk of low cloud moving in off the North Sea overnight, perhaps mist and fog forming too. Mild again though.

Early low cloud, possible mist/fog will break up during the morning on Thursday to leave good spells of very warm sunshine, some fair-weather cloud likely. Around 24’C in the notable easterly breeze. Again, a good chance of low cloud moving in from the North Sea overnight, mist/fog possibly forming too, but mild.

Similar story for Friday, early low cloud, possible mist/fog breaking up during the morning to leave sunny spells, and temperatures again warm, around 23’C or so. A small chance of a shower by this point – some uncertainty as to whether a thundery low may develop over France by the latter point of next week, and hence we could import a shower too.

The more likely outcome for next weekend continues the same theme of overnight low cloud/mist/fog breaking up to leave good sunny spells, with temperatures broadly around 23’C or so.

The less likely outcome would be for something showery to form, but still with sunny spells at times, and still warm.

Have a good weekend, I’m off to Portugal for a week’s actual relaxing holiday – though I’m not that good at relaxing. Forecasts should still be issued Monday and Thursday/Friday as usual.…

Something much cooler is on the way.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Yep, I still haven’t done my autumn seasonal forecast – it’ll be October by time I get around to it! Guess I’ll look to do it Thursday/Friday now.

We start the week with high pressure out to our west, and our low pressure that has dominated the weather for the last few days now weakening and moving east.

Today starts cloudy, perhaps the odd spot of drizzle/light rain. During the afternoon, brighter skies with some sunshine will spread east, though it may well be mid/late afternoon before it arrives. Reaching around 17’C. Breezy at first, less so later. Fairly clear skies overnight, cloud tending to thicken somewhat as the night goes on, around 12’C.

Tuesday is a fairly cloudy day as a weak weather front spreads down from the north-west, still some sunshine at times, and the odd shower. By late afternoon, perhaps early evening, a band of heavy showers will cross, bringing most places a heavy shower or two through this time. Reaching around 18’C and breezy. Clear skies will follow, but also the cooler air – down to around 7’C.

Wednesday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up and showers will break out by mid/late morning, most places catching a few which could be heavy with a rumble of thunder. Possible you’ll miss them all and stay dry, but unlikely. Just 14’C in a northerly breeze…I’m really not psychologically ready for this. Clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

By Thursday we are very much in this northerly, veering NNW flow.

Sunny spells to start the day but cloud bubbling up. One or two scattered showers, but only around a 30% chance of catching one, and they will be on the light/moderate side if you do. 14’C at best in the breeze. Notably chilly overnight, down to around 3’C – which can be sufficient for a ground frost.

For Friday we lose the northerly, and have a pleasant, sunny day. Some cloud but mostly sunshine, and temperatures up a bit to 16’C. Another fairly chilly night at around 5’C.

Saturday looks a pleasant and sunny day, though the sunshine will become increasingly hazy as the day goes on, as weather fronts edge closer. Reaching around 18’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 10’C.

The more likely outcome for Sunday sees the weather front push through, bringing a cloudier day with some rain at some point. Though not especially high confidence right now – plausible that high pressure hangs on and the weather front cannot quite make it here.

Uncertain for next week – suggestions of high pressure developing to our north, and low to our south – which could give us more warm but showery conditions.…

Unsettled but warm this weekend, becoming notably cooler next week. Summer is over…at least for now.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

It’s an interesting set-up right now, high pressure to our west, high pressure also over Scandinavia and reaching across Scotland. Low pressure slipped down from the north earlier this week and is sat to the west of France, being fed by the hot air over Europe – bringing downpours to southern UK, France and northern Spain/Portugal.

We start Friday with pulses of heavy, perhaps torrential rain spreading roughly east to west across the south of the UK – thunder possible (and I was woken up at 5am with such). Some uncertainty on exact positioning, it will be a relatively thin band – though more likely later in the morning it positions itself to our south so we’ll become mostly dry for a time through lunchtime, perhaps even a little sunshine. During the afternoon it likely pushes north again, so by mid/late afternoon and into the evening, more heavy showery rain likely, perhaps very heavy and thundery. A warm and humid day, reaching around 20’C – though if you get a bit of sunshine at lunchtime, a big if, then 25’C could quickly happen. Skies clearing somewhat overnight as cloud pushes north, down to around 12’C – a small chance of fog patches.

Saturday looks bright though with high/mid-level cloud for much of the day. The odd stray shower possible though most places dry until later in the day, when heavy and possibly torrential and thundery showers move up from France late afternoon onwards. Some uncertainty on timing, say any time from around 5pm though perhaps not arriving until say 11pm, also uncertain as to whether they will be in the form of showers or general rain. Remaining warm and humid, around 21’C or so. Further heavy showers, or general rain likely overnight – thunder still possible, around 15’C.

Some uncertainty on details for Sunday, and it will depend on how the thundery showers/rain developed overnight. But broadly it will remain showery, some sunny spells possible and around 20’C.

By Monday, low pressure will be moving away to our east. The morning likely still on the cloudy side, perhaps some overhang of light rain and drizzle – though uncertain. It should brighten up later in the day. Feeling fresher, around 18’C.

By Tuesday we start to see our weather coming more from the north-west.

Probably starting sunny, but a weak weather front will cross bringing cloud and perhaps some bits of rain – though some sunny spells remaining possible at times. Around 19’C and breezy. A cooler night likely, down to around 8’C.

Wednesday sees more of a northerly flow, quite a cool air mass for the time of year with temperatures around 15’C…yikes. Good job I’m going on holiday again soon. Anyway, sunny spells, fair weather cloud and a couple of showers is the broad theme. A chilly night likely, down to around 6’C – perhaps even a touch of ground frost in the most sheltered spots.

Thursday continues in this cool air mass, more in the way of sunshine but still some fair-weather cloud and a chance of a shower. Around 15’C once more. Down to around 5’C overnight, perhaps even lower – again a ground frost possible.

The Azores high likely tries to build across the UK from Friday onwards, how much success it has is uncertain, but you can certainly hope for a couple of drier, sunnier and somewhat warmer days.

I will try to get the autumn forecast done this weekend! Have fun.…

A warm but unsettled week, with low pressure developing…though it quickly becomes uncertain as to when it will rain. But it will rain.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph.

So the general set up for the start of the week sees high pressure out to our west, over the Atlantic, and another large area of high pressure over Russia and eastern Europe (confirm Prague was hot and sunny the whole time I was there). And in the middle, a weak low pressure drops south over the UK – which will develop into more of a feature later in the week.

Today starts mostly cloudy with bits of light rain/drizzle at times, and the odd shower. It will brighten up somewhat during the morning, though some scattered heavy showers will develop also. During the afternoon, more in the way of sunshine, still some cloud and a smaller chance of a shower. Warm, we should get to around 22’C. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy, though some sunny spells. Some showers around also – these likely becoming heavy and slow-moving in the afternoon, so catch one and it could last an hour or two, but also this means you may miss them all too. Around 20’C. Further showers or showery rain probable overnight – though exactly where it will develop is uncertain. Potentially heavy/very heavy. Around 14’C.

By Thursday the low pressure is centred over western UK, pulling warmth from the continent into it – and developing further.

Most likely we’ll see showery rain through the morning, if not persistent rain – which could be heavy/very heavy, with a trend to drier conditions later in the day. Around 16’C, but feeling quite humid.

However – the position of the low pressure is still a little uncertain, and hence weather fronts could be further south of us, and we get a mostly dry day, or just a bit of rain at some point. In such scenario, temperatures closer to 21’C – and on the humid side.

Uncertain overnight – the low pressure will likely have kicked off some thunderstorms over the continent, and they may develop into a spell of heavy, perhaps thundery rain – which may then cross the southern half of the UK overnight. Or it may stay to our south. Either way, a warmer night likely, around 16’C.

Friday is also highly uncertain. Where will the rain band be? More likely over southern England, and hence us, so a spell of rain, perhaps heavy and thundery at some point on Friday is the more likely outcome, but with some very warm air overhead it will be warm and humid too. And breezy.

However, again it could be further south – in which case we’d be looking at long spells of sunshine and temperatures around 25’C – or even further north of us, in which case still around 25’C, though hazier sunshine. The wetter outcome is more likely, but it is another uncertain day.

Saturday, of course, is uncertain. The low pressure probably a tad further south, so I’ve got higher hopes for some warm sunshine for at least a chunk of the day, though the chance of heavy showers, perhaps thundery either developing here, or moving up from France, is quite high, later in the day. Temperatures on the warm side, roughly between 22’C and 25’C.

Sunday likely sees the low pressure move back north again towards us, so further rain/showers likely at some point – but details impossible. Who knows, it could be dry. It should still be on the warm side though.

No much confidence on details for next week, though perhaps something notably cooler later in the week.

Next full forecast will be on Friday, the autumn forecast I will do as soon as I get time, but probably this weekend at the earliest.…