Fairly mixed and ordinary weather ahead, though mild this weekend.

Thanks to Karen for the photograph.

So we start the forecast period with high pressure close to our east (would be pretty glorious if a summer month) – low pressure to our west which is going to squeeze past to the north of the UK during the weekend.

Friday starts reasonably sunny though a fair amount of high cloud which will make it hazy at times – becoming completely sunny as the day goes on. Still on the cool side despite the southerly breeze, 9’C. A weak weather front will cross in the evening and overnight, bringing mostly cloud but perhaps the odd splash of rain. No lower than around 6’C.

Saturday starts mostly cloudy, perhaps a spot of drizzle. The sun should come out in the afternoon to an extent, though likely still quite a lot of cloud around – some uncertainty on cloud amounts, certainly possible it stays mostly cloudy all afternoon too. Much milder, 14’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, a bit of rain possible before dawn as a weather front edges in.

Sunday sees a weather front slowly cross from west to east, so a cloudy day with some showery rain at times – not always raining, some of the rain fairly light but potentially some heavy bursts mixed in too. Likely some sunshine before the end of the day. Around 12’C and breezy. Reasonably clear skies overnight, a small chance of a passing shower and down to around 8’C.

Monday sees the wind swing more to the north-west, quite a bit of cloud around – some bits of rain, but also some sunnier breaks too. Cooler, around 9’C and breezy. A frost possible overnight, though probably clouding over later in the night.

Tuesday should start dry but probably on the cloudy side. It looks like a weather front will cross either later in the day, or evening/overnight bringing rain – timing currently fairly uncertain. Reaching around 7’C.

Low confidence on details for Wednesday – more likely dry with some sunshine, though perhaps still some rain to clear in the morning, depending on the timing/track of Tuesday’s low. Around 8’C.

Low pressure probably takes over again for Thursday/Friday so more rain likely at some point.

Perhaps high pressure back for the weekend.

Generally – think changeable, rain at times, dry and sunny at other times, though the longer-term trend should be for drier conditions to be more often in place.

I will be doing the winter forecast soon…maybe this weekend.…

Not a dry week, but a calmer week this week – the cold has gone, but the mild will disappear too.

No photographs so you’ll have to have one of mine – from the joy that is Oxford Street on a wet and windy November afternoon. Don’t worry…I wasn’t going shopping.

So we start the week with Storm Bert heading into Scandinavia, and high pressure will weakly form behind it.

Cloudy to start the day, but this will quickly move east to be replaced by sunny spells and a bit of patchy cloud. Around 11’C and breezy, if not quite windy at times. Clear skies at first overnight, though an area of cloud and perhaps a shower crossing through the middle of the night – down to around 5’C.

Tuesday looks mostly sunny. A bit of patchy cloud and then some high/mid-level cloud developing later in the afternoon as the next low pressure approaches. Around 9’C. An area of rain spreading across overnight – likely some heavy bursts mixed in, perhaps some very heavy rain briefly. Around 5’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy, probably still some rain at dawn (and perhaps heavy) – timing as to when it clears is uncertain, and could broadly be any time from 6am to 1pm when it finishes raining. A very small chance of some sleet/wet snow on the back edge. Likely quite windy, generally pretty chilly too – around 5’C. Maybe some sunshine by late afternoon, but again, timing on when the little low pressure clears is uncertain. Skies clearing overnight and a frost probable, more likely down to around -1’C, give or take. A small chance of fog forming.

By Thursday, our little low is in the North Sea, and high pressure is building behind it – but the next low pressure system, a rather huge system is spinning away in the Atlantic (which actually spawned Wednesday’s low pressure…kind of spat it out in a meteorological way).

Thursday should be mostly sunny if a bit on the chilly side. Some high cloud likely at times, perhaps a bit of patchy low cloud but mostly sunny. 7’C at best. Some high cloud pushing east overnight so uncertain how low temperatures will go, but more likely around 0’C which will mean frost possible, and a small chance of fog forming too.

Friday most likely bright with hazy sunshine – weather fronts trying to push in from the west but not getting anywhere. Around 8’C, maybe a tad more. Probably on the cloudier side overnight, down to around 4’C – though not especially confident on details.

Some uncertainty for the weekend, but it does look like high pressure will strengthen and keep the low pressure at bay.

Probably sunny on Saturday or at least on the sunnier side of the spectrum, and around 8’C or so. Probably clear skies overnight – so a frost possible and down to around 0’C.

And probably the same or similar for Sunday – sunny or on the sunnier side of the spectrum and around 7’C or so.

Not especially high confidence for the weekend – high pressure wouldn’t need to be much weaker for weather fronts to make more progress with cloudier skies with some rain – it is still a plausible outcome.

My expectation remains for high pressure to be around more often than not in December, so conditions often settled and calm. Though you’ll find out more about my winter expectations fairly soon…the seasonal forecast is nearly due.…

One more cold day before milder, wetter and windier weather arrives, with Storm Bert.

Thanks to Karen for the photograph.

So the general picture sees us in this cold northerly-ish flow for Friday – Storm Bert way out to the west.

We start Friday with sunny spells though also some patchy cloud – a small chance of a light wintry shower. Generally mostly sunny for the rest of the day, though high cloud will build later in the afternoon. Another pretty cold day, reaching around 6’C but the breeze making it feel colder – especially first thing. A frost at first tonight, down to around 0’C but temperatures will climb from there as cloud thickens further, with outbreaks of rain starting from around 4am.

Saturday starts with some rain – most likely light/moderate rain, and quite patchy so not always raining in the morning. The rain generally more persistent in the afternoon, and occasionally heavy too – but there could still be some drier spells mixed in. The wind strong from mid-morning onwards, 40mph gusts so the odd tree branch down – that kind of level. Chilly to start the day but temperatures will continually rise – reaching 13’C by the evening. Further outbreaks of rain overnight, some heavy – and the wind stronger, 50mph gusts possible, so the odd fence panel down, etc. Around 14’C though, so much milder.

Sunday has some uncertainty over exactly where the trailing weather front will be, and hence where and when the rain will be focused. However, there will be rain, it could be heavy/very heavy at times – it could rain all day, or just parts of the day, but rain it will. Also some uncertainty on the strength of winds, most likely up to 50mph gusts, but an outside chance of something stronger, say 60mph gusts which would be more disruptive – do keep an eye on any warnings the Met Office issue. Around 15’C. Rain slowly easing east in the evening/overnight, some uncertainty on timing – and winds easing too, though remaining breezy. Around 9’C.

The rain should have cleared by Monday morning, though a small chance that it is still hanging around at first. Otherwise sunny spells, some cloud, still windy and a chance of a blustery shower or two. Around 10’C. Showers still possible overnight, down to around 5’C.

High pressure should try to build over the UK by Tuesday.

So Tuesday should be a reasonably sunny day, some cloud and around 9’C. More likely clear and frosty overnight – though there is a chance of an area of rain spreading up from the south-west.

Wednesday is uncertain – there may be a small low pressure system nearby which would bring rain, though I’m not convinced on the modelling of it – it could easily not exist, and just be sunny. 50/50.

Thursday and Friday more likely see high pressure holding on, probably on the sunnier side of the spectrum, say around 9’C – frost probable overnight.

Low pressure somewhat more likely to then push through at some point next weekend, bringing some wind and rain, and milder conditions. Though not for certain, maybe high pressure can hang on a bit longer. Say 70/30 roughly in terms of percentage chances.

Have a good weekend.…

Wet to start the week but then becoming notably colder with a significant Arctic blast on the way – though plenty of sunshine. Snow not impossible.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

We start the week with a northerly flow setting in, though low pressure just to our west will get here first.

The overnight rain has cleared away – plenty of cloud left over but there should be some bright/sunny breaks at first this morning, before cloud thickens from the west. Rain arrives around 2pm, and will be fairly persistent and moderate, a few heavy bursts at times. Around 8’C and breezy at times. The rain turns to showers by late evening and overnight, milder for a time at around 11’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy – some showers around though some uncertainty on this. Most likely rain, though some sleet or wet snow not impossible in the mix. There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty as to when it clears, it could clear during the morning, or it may hang on into the afternoon – once it does clear sunny spells will replace it. Around 5’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, and becoming frosty – perhaps some ice in places, down to around -1’C.

Wednesday will be sunny but cold – reaching around 4’C in the northerly breeze. Clear skies overnight and a sharp frost – widely down to around -4’C, a few spots even lower.

Thursday mostly likely is mostly sunny and certainly cold – around 4’C. An outside chance of a wintry shower but I’d be surprised if any made their way this way inland. Into the evening there is a small chance, say around 15%, of a spell of rain, sleet and/or snow moving across the south – low confidence on this. Otherwise, expect a frost.

Friday again broadly looks sunny, some cloud possible at times, an outside chance of a wintry shower. Around 5’C. Cloud thickening overnight and becoming windy too, as low pressure approaches. Some uncertainty on timing and angle of approach – the latter meaning rain is more likely as it stands, but a different angle of approach could mean snow turning to rain.

Normal service resumes for the weekend as a large area of low pressure takes over.

More likely everything falls as rain, but certainly a chance of a spell of snow to start – timing uncertain, it could start any time from say 2am to 9am. A thoroughly wet and windy day expected – the rain heavy, perhaps very heavy, the winds strong, perhaps gale force. Disruption possible both through the chance of snow to start, and then the wind. Becoming much milder, potentially up to 15’C by the afternoon.

Further rain or showers likely on Sunday/Monday, some uncertainty on temperatures but roughly in the range of 7’C to 10’C more likely.

Uncertain for next week, though more likely we should trend towards high pressure being in charge, so back to more settled and dry weather is the more likely outcome.…

Another couple of fairly benign days ahead but much colder air arrives from the Arctic for next week, wind, rain, some overnight frosts…and maybe some sleet or snow. Quite a bit of sunshine too.

Rain is far more likely than snow this far south, especially given that it isn’t even a winter month yet – that we are even talking about a small chance shows this upcoming Arctic blast packs more of a punch than usual.

Pretty much the opposite of the boring weather we’ve had for the last few weeks.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

The general picture right now sees high pressure still in control, though strengthening over the Atlantic which will allow the colder air to spread south next week. Low pressure still near Spain/Portugal.

Friday starts mostly cloudy. This will break up during the morning to leave some sunny spells, though still some cloud around. Reaching around 10’C. Fairly clear skies for much of the night, though more cloud by dawn. Down to around 3’C.

Saturday is mostly cloudy as a weather front sinks south – the first sign of change. Some bits and pieces of light rain, but dry most of the day. Something a little more persistent in the way of rain in the evening, but still fairly minimal amounts. Around 10’C, maybe 11’C. Cloud breaking up somewhat overnight, down to around 4’C.

Sunday sees a mixture of sunny spells and cloud. A little cooler, around 9’C. Mostly cloudy overnight – some rain spreading south later in the night though fairly sporadic. Around 5’C or so.

Monday should be cloudy and wet, as a quickly developing low pressure heads down from the north-west – and likely mild, at around 12’C. However, there is still a bit of uncertainty as to the track, and it could be a bit further south, with much lower temperatures – but likely still rain though. Windy also. Further rain and showers overnight, potentially some heavy showers. Around 8’C.

And then let the cold air flood south.

Low confidence on details for Tuesday, possibly still some rain to clear in the morning, an outside chance of a little back-edge wintriness as it clears, but most likely rain. Then becoming colder, but sunnier, from the north. Potentially still 10’C in the morning, closer to 5’C once the rain clears. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 0’C, a frost possible and a cold wind too.

Wednesday should be sunny but colder, in a northerly breeze/wind. An outside chance of a wintry shower and reaching around 5’C. Frost likely overnight, down to around -1’C or lower.

The more likely outcome for Thursday will be to remain cold and sunny, around 5’C. However, there is a chance of low pressure crossing the south, which would bring a spell of rain, and perhaps snow – something to keep an eye out for, but will be a few days before we can get a handle on this possibility. Frost likely overnight, down to around -1’C or lower.

Friday more likely will remain sunny but cold, around 5’C. Again, overnight frost probable.

Much milder air, with wind and rain, will likely try to push up from the south next weekend – whether it succeeds is highly debatable, but I’d suggest 60/40 odds that it does. Which would bring another small chance of snow on any leading edge of a weather front, before it turned to rain – depending on how the air masses interact.

Lots going on next week, and some uncertainty on details as close as 2-3 days away. Do keep a close eye on professional forecasts if you have plans on Monday, Thursday or next weekend – though I will update if anything changes in terms of snow potential – at the moment each event remains just a small chance down here.

Enjoy your weekend.…

OMG there’s some sunshine in this forecast. And that isn’t the only surprising word beginning with the letter s, that I’ll use.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

So high pressure is in charge, though a different area than previously – the weather front from yesterday has cleared the murk away, and there isn’t a load of moisture trapped under this new high pressure. Hence we can have some sunshine.

Monday starts with quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud but it will be bright. Slowly during the day this sinks further south, and we’ll get increasing amounts of sunshine. Reaching around 12’C. A breeze picking up overnight from the north-east, otherwise reasonably clear skies and down to around 5’C.

Tuesday starts with sunny spells. More cloud in the afternoon as areas of cloud and perhaps a spot of light rain spread in from the North Sea, but still some sunny spells possible. Around 12’C once more and a bit of a breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 6’C.

High pressure still in control for Wednesday, sunny spells at times – it does look like an area of high cloud will spread south for the afternoon making the sunshine hazy, and perhaps some areas of low cloud too. Around 12’C once more. Likely cloudy overnight, perhaps some light rain/drizzle, and roughly around 7’C – give or take.

Thursday starts cloudy, some bits and pieces of light rain/drizzle around. This sinks south to allow some sunny spells in the afternoon – the extent of which is uncertain, perhaps limited sunshine, perhaps quite a bit. Around 11’C. Some clear spells overnight, but also a risk of fog forming if so. Down to around 4’C.

Early fog possible for Friday, then probably a mixture of sunny spells and cloudy spells – uncertain on the cloud/sunshine balance at this stage. Around 10’C. A chilly night probable.

Things start to change on Saturday – probably there is some form of northerly flow established, though the initial timing of such is complicated by a low pressure towards Spain/Portugal.

Taking the somewhat more likely outcome that we get a clean northerly flow by Saturday, and the low pressure stays near Spain/Portugal, then Saturday looks cloudy, with a band of rain sinking south – timing uncertain but more likely afternoon/evening. Around 10’C but becoming colder during the day, as the cold northerly wind sets in. Frost possible overnight, though perhaps too windy.

Sunday would then be a fairly cold day in the northerly wind, sunny spells likely, an outside chance of a…wintry shower. Around 5’C but feeling colder. Frost more likely overnight.

However, there is an alternative vision – that the low pressure near Spain/Portugal starts to move towards us during Saturday, and we delay the northerly and lessen the impact. This would mean a fairly sunny day on Saturday, probably rain on Sunday – and staying around 12’C or so.

These broad scenarios are roughly a 65% to 35% chance, though some compromise version will also be possible.

Next week looks unsettled with low pressure around, and on the cold side. How cold will depend on how the cold arrived in the first place – if the clean northerly arrived on Saturday as per the somewhat more likely outcome, then it may well end up with daytime temperatures of somewhere between 2’C and 5’C, if the latter than closer to 7’C. Overnight frosts possible.

Of course, if we end up with a scenario where temperatures are between 2’C and 5’C, and with low pressure around – this would mean some sleet/snow is not impossible. Unlikely, but not impossible.…

More gloom for the next couple of days, but there is some sunshine in this forecast.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

The general picture right now sees a large area of high pressure centred over Poland and up into Sweden, but extending its influence across all of northern Europe. It will edge further east this weekend, allowing weak weather fronts to push our gloom away.

So today will remain gloomy, cloudy all day and a bit cooler than it has been – around 9’C. Remaining cloudy tonight, the odd spot of drizzle possible, and down to around 7’C.

Saturday continues cloudy and dull, some mist and also some occasional drizzle possible. Around 8’C and feeling on the cool side. A small chance of a little occasional brightness. Mostly cloudy overnight, though some limited clear breaks possible, down to around 6’C.

Sunday sees some changes – very weak weather fronts finally edge in, bringing cloud and perhaps a bit of light rain – but also they’ll push away the gloom, and as the weather fronts weaken further, their cloud should break up so we should see sunny spells at times – more so later in the day, but possibly at times in the morning too. Ooh! Becoming milder once more, around 13’C. A very weak weather front sinks south-east in the evening and overnight, bringing cloud and perhaps a little light rain – around 11’C.

Early cloud on Monday will clear to leave sunny skies. Yep, actual proper sunshine – some fair weather cloud too perhaps. Around 11’C. A chilly night under clear skies overnight, down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots, some patches of fog possible by dawn too.

By Tuesday we have a new area of high pressure in control, the old one now over Russia, this time centred over Ireland.

Tuesday looks to have decent sunny spells to start the day, bar any fog patches which should clear fairly quickly. More cloud possible later in the afternoon – still a bit uncertain but it looks like low pressure will develop to our south-east, which may bring rain by the evening. Around 10’C. A chance of some rain overnight – quite uncertain though.

Things become a bit more uncertain Wednesday onwards, as the aforementioned low pressure looks likely to develop over central-ish Europe, but positioning is uncertain and it could be close enough to bring us some showers/rain at times.

I suspect we’ll revert to cloud and gloom, more likely so by Thursday and Friday, with more in the way of drizzle and bits of rain than before – and again becoming rather cool, with an easterly flow.

Wednesday (appreciate I’ve gone in a weird order) is a bit more up in the air, certainly could be cloudy but also it could remain fairly sunny.

Perhaps more of a northerly flow by the weekend, so notably colder but also sunnier if this occurs.

Enjoy your weekend…not long until you see some sunshine again!…

Cloudy. I’ll be back later in the week with the next update.

Oh, go on then, I’ll write a daily summary as usual.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

So we start the week with high pressure over us – centred to our east over the North Sea and into Germany. If it were summer, this would be a glorious and hot spell of weather. Sadly, it ain’t summer.

Today will be cloudy. There’s a small chance of some sunny breaks by late afternoon, but more likely you’ll stay cloudy. Around 12’C. Most likely cloudy overnight – even if the cloud breaks, fog would form, but for most it will just stay cloudy and no lower than around 8’C.

Again, Tuesday will be cloudy. A moderate chance of some sunny spells late in the afternoon, but again slightly more likely just to stay cloudy…but you might see a little sunshine. Around 13’C. Cloudy overnight, perhaps some mist, down to around 8’C.

Wednesday will be cloudy. Temperatures around 12’C – give or take. Cloudy overnight – perhaps a spot of drizzle, around 10’C.

Thursday will be…cloudy…yep you got it. Reaching around 12’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 9’C.

Hints of a change by Friday, the high pressure now centred over eastern Europe which allows a weak weather front to try to push in from the west.

Still likely a lot of cloud, but more hope for some sunshine, especially in the afternoon – perhaps more likely it becomes sunny in the afternoon than stays cloudy, but don’t be surprised if it does stay cloudy. Reaching around 14’C. Overnight the weather front pushes east, bringing cloud and perhaps a little patchy rain.

Saturday likely sees plenty of cloud once more, but chances of some sunshine in the afternoon. Around 14’C – though with a little sunshine then maybe a tad more. Cloudy overnight, perhaps foggy.

By Sunday, high pressure starts to build strongly from the south once more (whhhhhyyyy not in summer aaaarrrggghhhh). Uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts at this stage but I’m hopeful of at least some afternoon sunshine. Reaching around 14’C – pretty pleasant if the sun does come out, for the time of year. Most likely cloudy or foggy overnight.

Next week likely starts with high pressure over the UK, or close by. Uncertain on exact positioning at this stage, but probably differently positioned/orientated than the previous two weeks, and hence a chance of something sunnier…perhaps cooler too.

Hints remain of something more unsettled around mid-month, but this is fairly tentative and the high pressure is quite a beast – I doubt it will move far and could well dominate our weather for much of the winter, in one position or another.…

Gosh November already. More boring weather to come.

Thanks to Lene for the suitably cloudy photograph.

So we start the forecast with high pressure in control, centred roughly over UK and into continental Europe – low pressure over Spain/Portugal that brought those exceptional downpours slowly easing.

High pressure will stay with us all week, though will shift around a bit. Alas, there’s lots of cloud trapped under it – in summer, this would be a glorious forecast.

So Friday will be cloudy and dry – the odd bit of brightness at times, and reaching around 13’C. Overnight will be cloudy, perhaps a little drizzle towards dawn. Around 10’C.

Saturday will be cloudy, some occasional bits of light rain/drizzle possible. Right towards the end of the day, perhaps a little sunshine. Around 14’C or so. Some clear spells overnight, therefore a cooler night – down to around 6’C, but still some cloud at times, and perhaps some patchy fog by dawn.

Sunday sees plenty more cloud. Chances of some sunny breaks both early in the morning, and towards dusk – in between mostly cloudy. Around 12’C. Mist/fog/low cloud developing overnight, down to around 8’C.

Monday starts with mist/fog/low cloud – those with fog may see it persist well into the morning. Otherwise cloudy, though probably breaking up later in the afternoon to some sunny spells – no guarantee though. Around 12’C. Mist/fog/low cloud developing once again overnight, down to around 8’C.

Tuesday starts with mist/fog/low cloud, again those with fog may see it persist well into the morning, perhaps even lunchtime in a few spots – but some places may escape the fog and just be cloudy. Otherwise cloudy, perhaps some sunny breaks again later in the afternoon, and around 11’C. Cloudy overnight, some mist/fog patches – perhaps there might be a very weak weather front bringing a little drizzle, but uncertain.

By Wednesday the centre of the high pressure has shifted towards Turkey, but its about to strengthen over western Europe, including the UK, again.

Again, mostly cloudy – a very weak weather front may bring a little light rain/drizzle, but uncertain. Around 12’C or so. Mist/fog/low cloud likely overnight.

Thursday sees mist/fog/low cloud yadda yadda I’m bored. But yeah, cloudy. Likely a bit milder again, 14’C. Cloudy overnight, perhaps mist/fog.

Friday likely sees more cloud but perhaps a hint of a change as weather fronts try to push in from the west – the associated breeze may help shift a bit of the cloud. Around 14’C.

Broadly settled most likely for next weekend, again lots of cloud the most likely outcome, with overnight fog possible – the odd weak weather front may bring a little light rain at times. Sunshine not impossible, but cloud is more likely as it stands.

Suggestions are for something more unsettled by around mid-month, perhaps even a bit colder towards the end of the month.

Yawn. I need a holiday.…