Weather Forecast For Reading & Berkshire

The heat is over, for now, but it will remain very warm – though a more changeable week ahead with a mixture of sunshine, cloud and some showers/bits of rain.

I am trialling moving the usual Monday morning forecast to Sunday morning, to see if it makes my working week a tad easier!

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So the general picture sees low pressure towards Iceland taking control, pushing the heat away. The jetstream is a bit more active than it has been – waking up in time for summer.

Sunday starts with sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. Cloud will gradually thicken during the afternoon but it will remain bright with hazy sunshine. A chance of a light (ish) shower this afternoon. Fresher and becoming quite windy, yet still very warm at around 25’C. Fairly cloudy this evening, perhaps a light shower, and another band of cloud crossing overnight with one or two showers. Around 16’C overnight.

Monday will be a pleasant day with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – overall there should be more sunshine than cloud, especially in the afternoon. Still breezy, around 23’C. Clear skies at first overnight, more cloud towards dawn – down to around 13’C.

Tuesday sees a weak weather front slowly crossing – so a lot of cloud around, perhaps a bit of light rain at times, but very little rain. Some breaks in the cloud probable, especially in the afternoon. Very warm, roughly between 24’C and 26’C, depending on how much afternoon sunshine we can squeeze. And still breezy. Fairly clear skies overnight and warmish, no lower than around 16’C.

On Wednesday we’ll tap into a bit of the European heat again, some sunny spells but also quite a bit of cloud around which though it will feel humid, will stop temperatures rising too high – say roughly around 26’C, though a bit higher possible. There will be a chance of a shower or two during the day, and in the evening a moderate chance of some thundery downpours moving up. A fairly warm night with showers or showery rain probable. No lower than 17’C.

Details for Thursday are a bit sketchy. Some showery rain still possible in the morning, then probably brighter after with some sunny spells, and a small chance of a shower. Around 24’C so still on the warm side.

By Friday high pressure should be pushing up from the south-west once more.

Again some uncertainty on details as weather fronts won’t be far away to our north. So more likely sunny spells or hazy sunshine, and becoming quite hot – say around 27’C. But something cloudier is plausible, and around 23’C.

For the weekend high pressure almost definitely will be in control. There is a possibility of a weak weather front getting trapped underneath, so some cloudy spells, with perhaps a spot of light rain, are possible either Saturday/Sunday.

But more likely we’ll be looking at sunny spells, if not long spells of sunshine. More likely temperatures are back to being quite hot, say 25’C to 28’C more likely on Saturday, 27’C to 30’C more likely on Sunday. Something a little hotter not out of the question either.

This general theme should continue into July of often very warm/hot, often sunny – though some weather fronts bringing a couple of cloudier days into the mix, perhaps with a little rain, and also a chance of importing thundery downpours on occasion – though always hit and miss on these events, as you likely know.

A short unsettled spell is plausible during the first 10 days of July, though after that there remains signals of a more lengthy spell of settled and hot weather establishing.

The signals for August remain unchanged, and are still fairly weak – that of something hotter, sunnier and drier than normal, though some showers in the mix at times.

Have a fun Sunday!…

Congratulations, it’s a heatwave! A few hot days to come, but becoming somewhat less hot from Sunday.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph (and assuming that I might need more fair weather photographs).

So the general picture sees high pressure over the UK and just drifting slightly east, which allows some of the hotter air to move up from Spain – though unlikely it will break June records (might be a close call though).

The hotter air is actually arriving a day or so earlier than previously expected, and being shunted away a day or two earlier than expected because there is a bit more energy in the jetstream – the low pressure to the north of the Azores right now is going to be picked up as part of the circulation of the low pressure south of Greenland – and hence the heat isn’t quite going to get to the levels once thought possible.

Anyway, today is hot and sunny. Very little if any cloud and reaching around 30’C, maybe 31’C – easily the hottest day of the year so far. I wouldn’t rule out 32’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud around, probably no lower than around 16’C so a fairly warm night.

Friday sees more in the way of high-level cloud so hazy sunshine is the theme, and a bit of a breeze too. But still hot, 29’C, maybe 30’C – I cannot totally rule out something a tad more. Mostly clear skies overnight, though a little cloud around, and a fairly warm night – probably no lower than 18’C.

Saturday starts fairly sunny. There will be some cloud at times as things start to break down from the west, and I cannot totally rule out a short heavy shower, but sunny spells will be the theme. Hot, though some uncertainty as to how hot. 30’C is the lower end of the possible range, 34’C is the upper end, I’d suggest 32’C more likely. The June record is 35.6’C – I’d say there is a 10% chance of this being breached, more likely in the Midlands area. Some cloud in the evening and a 30% chance of a shower, perhaps thundery – though they will probably be quite scattered (if they even develop). Likely a warm night – fresher air will arrive at some point, but don’t be surprised if it is still 25’C at midnight, and a notably uncomfortable night. Fresher air may arrive around midnight – but more likely not until around dawn.

By Sunday, low pressure is more in control, and high pressure has been shunted back into the continent.

Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud will be the theme, around a 20% chance of a passing shower, though unlikely it would amount to much if you caught one. Still some residual warmth, 26’C should be achieved, maybe even a little more – though the westerly breeze will make it feel more comfortable. A weak weather front will cross overnight bringing some cloud, maybe some showers – and a fresher night – roughly down to around 12’C.

For Monday, plenty of sunny spells, some cloud around – it should be dry too. Warm, around 23’C in a westerly breeze. Probably clear skies and dry overnight, around 13’C.

Fairly low confidence for Tuesday, but suggestions of a weather front crossing which would suggest a cloudier day with maybe a bit of rain, and around 21’C or so.

Low confidence afterwards – I’m actually more confident for next weekend than I am for the Wednesday to Friday period before it. So for next weekend I think there is a good chance (never certain at this range) of it being hot and sunny once more.

It’s how we get there that is trickier (with apologies for those going to Glastonbury hoping for a bit of certainty!). I think the more likely outcome is a slow build up of warmth towards the weekend, with mostly sunny days.

But there’s certainly a fair chance instead of something more changeable, maybe some thundery showers or even a band of rain crossing, with Wednesday/Thursday being the more uncertain days.

That’ll do for now. Enjoy the heat if you can (I shall be enjoying my air conditioning, quite how I used to cope without I have no idea), next forecast might be Sunday morning, or Monday if not.…

Plenty more sunshine and gradually becoming hotter as the week goes on.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

So the general picture right now sees low pressure to the north-east of Scotland today, but the Azores high is waiting to build in from the south-west, which will be the theme of the week.

Sunday starts sunny but there will be a cloudier spell for mid/late morning, perhaps a shower – say a 20% chance. Sunshine amounts then increasing again as the afternoon goes on. Warm, 23’C though breezy too. Mostly clear skies overnight, though some cloud/mist perhaps developing in places towards dawn. Down to around 13’C.

Monday will be a fair day – sunny spells to start, cloud will bubble up and likely more cloud than sunshine for a while, say mid/late morning and lunchtime, before sunshine amounts increase again later in the day. Very warm, we should get to around 25’C in a light breeze. Fairly clear skies overnight, around 14’C.

Tuesday sees more in the way of sunshine, though some high cloud will make it hazy at times, and also some fair-weather cloud around too. Very warm, 26’C should be reached. Fairly clear overnight, though some high cloud around, down to around 14’C.

By Wednesday high pressure should be over the UK, so most likely we’ll see long spells of sunshine, and temperatures around 26’C or 27’C…maybe 28’C. I wouldn’t totally rule out a spell of cloud for a portion of the day, though feels a low chance. Clear skies most likely overnight, a warmish feel, down to around 15’C.

By Thursday we just start to see high pressure migrate east a little bit – which gives the potential to tap into some of the heat over Spain/Portugal towards the weekend.

Most likely we’ll see more long spells of sunshine, some uncertainty on cloud amounts but the more likely outcome will be for it to be mostly sunny. Fairly hot, more likely around 28’C, though again a little uncertainty. Some high cloud possible overnight, down to around 16’C, give or take.

The more likely outcome for Friday would see lots more sunshine, and temperatures on the hot side again, say around 28’C being more likely, but feasibly could be anywhere between 25’C and 31’C. Also an outside chance of a heavy shower developing. Down to around 16’C overnight, so another warmish night.

The more likely outcome for Saturday and Sunday sees the hotter air arrive from the south, not certain but the more likely outcome. So more in the way of sunshine, and temperatures most likely in the low 30’s – with a small chance of the UK’s June record temperature being broken somewhere, which is currently 35.6’C.

It’s still plausible that instead the hot air doesn’t reach here, and we just stay with warmer than normal temperatures, but nothing unusual – say 25’C to 28’C, with sunshine and dry conditions still much more likely than not.

Assuming the hotter air does arrive at the weekend, then the more likely outcome for the week after would see the heat continuing for a day or two, again a chance of the June record being broken – before a thundery breakdown, and then settling down back to normal levels of warmth again. Though we need to see if the weekend heat arrives before we can really think about the week after.…

Hello from hot and sunny Ljubljana! Some notable warmth, sunshine and possible thundery downpours in the mix back home over the next few days.

Apologies for the lack of forecast so far this week, I had virtually no wi-fi in my previous place so it was impossible. This will likely be a slightly shorter forecast than usual as I have a lake to go to – and exact details are quite uncertain.

And thanks to Louise for the photograph.

So the general picture right now sees an area of high pressure over the UK, but with low pressure to the west – which is dragging up much warmer air, but also brings instability.

Today starts with a fair amount of cloud around, but it will gradually break up and by the afternoon there should be good/long spells of very warm sunshine. Reaching around 25’C, maybe a tad more. Mostly clear skies overnight though high cloud building later, down to around 13’C.

Thursday starts bright and warm. Later in the morning a weather front will push across, bringing some showery and probably heavy rain, perhaps a little thunder too – however the showery nature does mean there is a small chance of staying dry, and just being mostly cloudy for a time. Most likely any rain will clear mid/late afternoon onwards to leave more very warm sunny spells. Somewhere between 23’C and 26’C, depending on exactly how the day pans out. Mostly clear skies overnight and quite a warmish feel, 15’C.

Friday starts with sunny spells and some cloud. Rather hot and humid, most likely somewhere between 26’C and 28’C, though I wouldn’t rule out a 30’C. Showers possibly breaking out in the afternoon, but more so we are looking to the evening with a moderate chance, say around 40% of importing some significant thunderstorms from France. Where exactly they will track is uncertain, so they may well miss totally (more likely to miss than hit as it stands) – but if they so head our way, expect torrential rain and potentially copious amounts of lightning. A warm and humid night, no lower than 17’C.

Further heavy, thundery showers possible to start Saturday, but gradually this will move north to leave good sunny spells for the afternoon. I wouldn’t rule out an afternoon shower. Around 22’C though very give and take.

Sunday should be broadly pleasant as high pressure builds once more, sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud – though around a 40% chance of a heavy shower or two. Around 22’C.

More likely next week sees high pressure continue to build, so plenty more settled and fairly sunny weather, though the odd shower or weak weather front will be possible.

Models again hinting at a build up of heat later next week, so don’t be surprised if we end up in the high 20’s or even low 30’C by late next week or into next weekend. Something to watch but not yet expect.

I wouldn’t even rule out the June temperature record being broken.

Not sure when the next forecast will be, maybe Sunday morning, as I shall be back then, but if I get the time on Friday then I’ll do a thunderstorm update (thankfully my flight is in the morning that day!).…

Some heavy showers in the next couple of days – but then becoming much warmer.

Thanks to Cathy for the photograph.

The general set-up sees low pressure in charge right now, with a westerly flow.

Friday starts fairly cloudy – a band of showers will cross fairly early in the day, perhaps heavy. Sunny spells and scattered heavy showers will follow for a while, though showers tending to fade early/mid afternoon as cloud slowly thickens from the west. Quite windy at times but getting to around 20’C. Cloud continues to thicken in the evening with outbreaks of rain arrive late evening – some heavy bursts likely. Probably drier by dawn, down to around 11’C.

Saturday probably starts dry and bright, though showers will quickly move in during the morning. Into the afternoon, there will likely be frequent heavy/very heavy showers, thunder and hail both very possible. Some strong gusts of wind in the showers. Around 18’C. Showers fewer in the evening but still one or two around for a while, mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

Sunday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up with a scattering of showers, fewer than Saturday – you might miss them all, and generally less heavy though still could be quite heavy if you catch one. Around 18’C or so and still breezy. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

By Monday the Azores high will be pushing in. A fairly sunny start, likely plenty of cloud bubbles up – more cloud than sun from around late morning, but still some sunshine. Warmer, say 21’C and just a 20% chance of a shower. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

For Tuesday, we see the high pressure now centred over northern France, and a small low pressure to the west of Portugal/Spain is forming which will help to move some warmth our way.

So Tuesday for us will be generally pleasant, variable amounts of sunshine and cloud – tending to be more cloud than sun around the middle of the day, otherwise more sunshine. Warmer, 24’C seems feasible. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday will see good spells of sunshine, some cloud around but not too much. Very warm, if not quite hot – 26’C seems feasible. Mostly clear skies overnight and a warmish night, no lower than around 15’C in a southerly breeze. A very small chance of importing a thunderstorm later in the night.

Thursday is…complicated. Low pressure will be pushing east but how it interacts with the heat coming from Spain is uncertain. There is a potential for it to be pretty hot and humid, say somewhere between 25’C and 32’C – with some thundery downpours. But it really could be any normal summer weather that day.

Friday therefore also highly uncertain, though further warmth and showers will both be very possible.

Fairly strong signal for next weekend to see high pressure push up from the south-west once more, so something more settled with sunny spells, and normal levels of warmth – say around 23’C, give or take, being the more likely outcome. Not nailed on yet, Thursday’s low does cause some uncertainty still, but fairly high confidence considering it is 8 days away.

High pressure likely in control the week after – expect more very warm sunshine.

Have a pleasant weekend – I’m off on an adventure again (Trieste and Ljubljana) so not sure when the next forecasts will be, but I will find time at some point next week. And yes, it is looking hot and sunny in both Trieste and Ljubljana – thankfully nothing too extreme either!…

A somewhat more unsettled week ahead.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

The general picture to start the week sees a westerly flow, with our next low pressure system currently to the south-west of Iceland, gearing up.

Monday will still be a pleasant day though, plenty of sunshine, some fair-weather cloud at times, perhaps more cloud than sunshine through the lunch period, and reaching around 21’C or so. Quite breezy too. Clear spells for much of the night, though cloud thickening towards dawn – down to around 11’C.

Tuesday sees a band of rain crossing, arriving around 7/8am (give or take), often light and patchy but a few heavier bursts probable, more likely in the afternoon before it clears. Sunny spells arriving later in the afternoon – a bit of uncertainty as to when the band of rain clears. Around 16’C and windy. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Lots of cloud likely for Wednesday and a few heavy showers around – say a 75% chance of catching at least a couple. Some sunny spells, but fairly limited – and breezy too. Around 18’C. A mostly cloudy night with some bits of showery rain, around 11’C.

Low pressure still stuck to the north of Scotland on Thursday, and it will have spawned a secondary low on its southern edge for Thursday.

Some uncertainty as to how it develops at this stage, though more likely Thursday will see much of the day wet and probably windy – timing TBC also. There is a small chance that this secondary low doesn’t develop too much, in which case we’d be looking at sunny spells and heavy showers – but the wet and windy scenario is at least an 80% chance. Temperatures will depend on when the rain arrives, if in the morning then it probably won’t get above 14’C, if it starts bright and the rain arrives later, then maybe 18’C. Probably dry overnight.

Friday likely will be a fairly cloudy day with multiple showers, probably heavy too, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. A bit of sunshine at times too though. Around 19’C and breezy, if not quite windy. Further showers or showery rain probable overnight.

Low pressure still in charge for Saturday though the broad-scale trough starting to pull away. Details uncertain but either a spell of rain for much of the day, or fairly cloudy with frequent heavy, thundery showers are the two more likely outcomes. Temperatures somewhere between 15’C and 19’C, depending on whether we get any sunshine, and still breezy.

Sunday probably sees a ridge of high pressure, though fairly low confidence. So a drier day, quite a lot of cloud, some sunny spells, still a chance of a shower or two – and roughly around 18’C, give or take.

You may be wondering if we’ve had our summer.

Well…no. It’s just taking a break. My full summer forecast will be issued in the next couple of days.

Next week should be an improvement, warmer, more sunshine – though not every day, still likely some showers or even a band of rain for some days.…

A warm end to spring, then a mixed start to summer – though not that much rain in the mix.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

So the general picture sees a westerly flow with the jetstream fairly close to our north, but also we are just about tapping into some of the heat coming up from Africa and into western Europe – will be close to 40’C in some parts of southern Spain/Portugal which seems pretty extraordinary for late May.

Friday starts rather cloudy – it will gradually break up during the morning to leave reasonable amounts of sunny spells for the afternoon, though it will also become hazier as high cloud spreads across. Very warm, temperatures will depend on how quickly the cloud clears, but roughly between 24’C and 26’C. High level cloud overnight, around 14’C.

Saturday starts sunny – probably it becomes rather cloudy for a time around late morning/lunchtime, before becoming sunnier early afternoon onwards, though the timing of this potential cloudier spell is uncertain. Broadly speaking a very pleasant day, and likely quite hot, around 27’C – though with the uncertainty of how cloudy it might become and for how long, a cloudier scenario would be a bit lower in terms of temperatures but still very warm. Some clear spells at times overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday starts fairly sunny. Again cloud will spread across, likely more cloud than sunshine overall for the lunchtime period, then sunnier again later in the day. A small chance of a passing shower, won’t amount to much if you do catch one. Less warm but still very pleasant, around 21’C, a little breezy too. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Monday will be another pleasant day, sunny for a good portion of the morning, cloud bubbling up around lunchtime for a few hours but still bright enough, then sunnier later in the day again. A very small chance of a shower. Warm, around 22’C. Clear skies at first overnight, cloud building later. Around 11’C.

By Tuesday we see a new area of low pressure approach and cross the UK, though it gets blocked and shifts north over the next couple of days.

So Tuesday will see a band of rain cross at some point, a few hours of rain but totals fairly low-moderate. Timing uncertain, sunny spells will follow. Around 18’C and windy. Probably dry with clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.

Not especially high confidence for Wednesday, but the more likely outcome is for something quite cloudy, some sunny spells, one or two showers possible, and around 19’C. Still breezy. There is a smaller chance of a spell of rain instead.

Probably either a spell of rain or showers for Thursday, again not especially high confidence.

Next weekend is highly uncertain – certainly a chance that we tap into the heat to our south, which could also mean some thundery downpours. But other options more likely, say something similar to this weekend, or something more average with some showers. As I said a lot of uncertainty.

The changeable theme is more likely to continue after this, though with the emphasis more on warm/very warm and sunny days, and fewer days with showers/rain/cloud – and a chance of short hot/very hot spells mixed in.

Have a pleasant weekend – I will be doing the summer forecast soon, hopefully early next week.…