A warm end to spring, then a mixed start to summer – though not that much rain in the mix.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

So the general picture sees a westerly flow with the jetstream fairly close to our north, but also we are just about tapping into some of the heat coming up from Africa and into western Europe – will be close to 40’C in some parts of southern Spain/Portugal which seems pretty extraordinary for late May.

Friday starts rather cloudy – it will gradually break up during the morning to leave reasonable amounts of sunny spells for the afternoon, though it will also become hazier as high cloud spreads across. Very warm, temperatures will depend on how quickly the cloud clears, but roughly between 24’C and 26’C. High level cloud overnight, around 14’C.

Saturday starts sunny – probably it becomes rather cloudy for a time around late morning/lunchtime, before becoming sunnier early afternoon onwards, though the timing of this potential cloudier spell is uncertain. Broadly speaking a very pleasant day, and likely quite hot, around 27’C – though with the uncertainty of how cloudy it might become and for how long, a cloudier scenario would be a bit lower in terms of temperatures but still very warm. Some clear spells at times overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday starts fairly sunny. Again cloud will spread across, likely more cloud than sunshine overall for the lunchtime period, then sunnier again later in the day. A small chance of a passing shower, won’t amount to much if you do catch one. Less warm but still very pleasant, around 21’C, a little breezy too. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Monday will be another pleasant day, sunny for a good portion of the morning, cloud bubbling up around lunchtime for a few hours but still bright enough, then sunnier later in the day again. A very small chance of a shower. Warm, around 22’C. Clear skies at first overnight, cloud building later. Around 11’C.

By Tuesday we see a new area of low pressure approach and cross the UK, though it gets blocked and shifts north over the next couple of days.

So Tuesday will see a band of rain cross at some point, a few hours of rain but totals fairly low-moderate. Timing uncertain, sunny spells will follow. Around 18’C and windy. Probably dry with clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.

Not especially high confidence for Wednesday, but the more likely outcome is for something quite cloudy, some sunny spells, one or two showers possible, and around 19’C. Still breezy. There is a smaller chance of a spell of rain instead.

Probably either a spell of rain or showers for Thursday, again not especially high confidence.

Next weekend is highly uncertain – certainly a chance that we tap into the heat to our south, which could also mean some thundery downpours. But other options more likely, say something similar to this weekend, or something more average with some showers. As I said a lot of uncertainty.

The changeable theme is more likely to continue after this, though with the emphasis more on warm/very warm and sunny days, and fewer days with showers/rain/cloud – and a chance of short hot/very hot spells mixed in.

Have a pleasant weekend – I will be doing the summer forecast soon, hopefully early next week.…

A mixed week ahead with rain at times, but also some warmth and sunshine.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

So the general picture to start the week sees a westerly flow, low pressure to our north, and two developing to the west, queueing up to visit the UK.

So today is a mostly cloudy day with a couple of showers around. Around 18’C and breezy. The first half of the night will be cloudy with bits and pieces of rain, the second half sees clearer skies. Windy, around 13’C.

Tuesday starts with some hazy sunshine but it will quickly cloud over, with rain arriving around 10/11am ish. The rain somewhat showery, some heavy bursts likely mixed in too. Becoming windy in the afternoon, around 16’C. Still some showery bits in the evening though these fading – mostly dry overnight, around 12’C. Still breezy.

Wednesday will see a fair amount of cloud around, but some sunny spells at times too – more likely later in the day. Some showers around too, more likely in the morning or through lunchtime. Warmer once more, around 20’C and still breezy. Becoming cloudy overnight, a bit of patchy rain, mostly light. Around 13’C.

Thursday will be a mostly cloudy day – a bit of uncertainty over where the overnight weather front will be, so a 25% chance of some showery bits of rain in the morning, but more likely mostly dry. Some sunshine possible later in the day. Warmer as we’ll be starting to tap into the heat pushing up from Africa, reaching around 22’C despite all the cloud. Fairly clear skies overnight, around 13’C.

By Friday we’ll just be picking up some of the heat that is pushing from Africa northwards.

Most likely it will be a sunny day, or at least hazy sunshine. Temperatures somewhere between 23’C and 28’C – some uncertainty as to how much of the heat we can tap into (it won’t be far from 40’C in southern Spain). Probably dry overnight, though a very small chance of importing a thunderstorm from France.

Not especially high confidence on details for the weekend.

Saturday will likely still be very warm, say around 24’C give or take. Sunny spells and scattered heavy showers the more likely theme, but I wouldn’t rule out it just being dry and sunny, though likewise nor would I rule out something cloudier and wetter at this stage.

Sunday more likely is a bit less warm, say 19’C to 22’C. Sunny spells and heavy showers the more likely outcome, though as I said, not especially high confidence.

Fairly low confidence also for next week, more likely would be the continuation of the showery theme with temperatures varying say between 17’C and 22’C, but something drier – or much wetter are possible instead.

Plausible that we tap into some of the heat to the south the weekend after, say a 25% chance of a short hot spell – one to watch, but not yet expect.…

A mixed bank holiday weekend ahead – but there is some sunshine in the mix.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

So the general picture sees a notable change from recent, high pressure still ridging across the UK, but now sourced from the south-west instead of the north-west – and low pressure out in the Atlantic is about to roll across.

Friday starts sunny, cloud will bubble up through the morning and through the lunchtime period likely there is more cloud than sunshine overall. Sunshine amounts increasing as the afternoon goes on, though also becoming hazy as high cloud spreads across from the west, as the weather system approaches. Around 19’C or so, with a bit of a breeze in the afternoon. Cloudy overnight, some outbreaks of rain from around midnight onwards. Around 12’C.

Saturday starts cloudy with some outbreaks of rain. This will clear east fairly quickly to leave a mostly cloudy day, quite breezy, some occasional bits of sunshine, some occasional bits of light rain/drizzle. Quite warm and a little humid, around 20’C or so – maybe 22’C if there is a bit of sunshine in the afternoon. Further showery outbreaks of rain arriving in the evening and overnight, though I stress the showery nature. Quite windy too, down to around 12’C.

Sunday will be quite a reasonable day. A chance of some showers first thing, but mostly a case of sunny spells and fair weather cloud from mid/late-morning onwards. I cannot totally rule out an afternoon shower but more likely it stays dry. Breezy and just about getting to 20’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.

Bank Holiday Monday starts quite sunny, but cloud will bubble up during the morning with some scattered showers. Generally becoming cloudier as the afternoon goes on, further showers possible, or perhaps general showery rain. Around 18’C and windy. Some rain or showers overnight, probably dry by dawn and around 12’C.

By Tuesday, low pressure remains in control, centred to the north of Scotland – though high pressure will be attempting to nudge north from the Azores.

Rain is going to spread across on Tuesday, some uncertainty on the timing though. More likely a bright start with some sunny spells, with the rain arriving in the afternoon – though a smaller chance instead that it arrives in the morning. Reaching somewhere between 16’C and 19’C, depending on how much sunshine we get before the rain arrives, quite windy too. Further rain likely in the evening and/or overnight, timing uncertain, quite possibly heavy this time.

That’s as far as I can go in terms of details – even Tuesday is quite uncertain in terms of the timing of areas of rain.

Probably some rain at some point on Wednesday.

Thursday and through the weekend, still some weather fronts likely crossing though with high pressure to our south having more influence, these will be weaker affairs with lighter rain, and there should be sunshine at other times.

Probably warmer from Thursday onwards too, low, perhaps mid 20’s – a small chance of it becoming quite hot.

The changeable theme more likely to continue for the start of June, though short hot spells could also be part of this changeable theme.

Chances of something more settled for mid-June, say week 2 onwards.

Have a pleasant weekend.…

Still some pleasant weather around this week, but more in the way of cloud, and some shower chances too. And the bank holiday looks mixed.

Thanks to Suzanne for the photograph.

We start the week with the omni-present high pressure that has controlled our weather for most of the recent months now towards Iceland, the easterly flow continues.

During the course of the week this high weakens and drifts further away, high pressure tries to build from the south-west but also low pressure tries to head in from the north-east – neither will win.

Monday starts cloudy. It will take some time to shift, late morning at best though more likely not until early/mid-afternoon, but eventually there will be some good sunny spells. Around 18’C in a light easterly breeze. We lose the easterly flow overnight so the cloud probably doesn’t return, at least not to the same level, some cloud possible but more in the way of clear skies – around 8’C.

Tuesday starts mostly sunny. It will stay reasonably sunny all day, though high cloud will tend to build making it hazy, and some fair-weather cloud later in the day too. Warm, 22’C. Cloud thickens overnight, a little patchy rain possible towards dawn, around 12’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy with some patchy light/moderate rain in places. This will clear south to sunny spells, say around midday but that’s very approximate. Once the sun comes out, some scattered heavy showers will break out, very possibly thundery, during the afternoon and into early evening. Around 18’C, give or take. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

By Thursday we are caught between low pressure to our north-east and high pressure trying to move in from the south-west. Neither will be the eventual winner – that is the low pressure starting to gear up closer to Canada.

Some uncertainty on details for Thursday, more likely a sunny start, but with an area of cloud then moving south during the day – whether it is completely cloudy or somewhat cloudy is uncertain. Perhaps a little rain but nothing much. Temperatures roughly around 16’C to 18’C. Fairly clear skies overnight and a chilly night – down to around 3’C.

Friday starts sunny. Likely quite a lot of cloud bubbles up from around mid/late-morning onwards, more cloud than sun but still some sunny spells. Around 18’C or so. Cloud slowly thickening overnight, down to around 8’C.

Then the weather changes, just in time for the bank holiday weekend. It’s the return of autumn, as low pressure moves down from the north-west.

Timings uncertain at the moment, but at some point on Saturday a band of rain will cross – feasibly it could arrive any time from 6am to 9pm, there is quite a broad range as it stands. Probably quite slow moving, so 8-12 hours of rain when it does arrive, though it could be quite patchy and nothing especially heavy is expected. If it doesn’t arrive until late in the day, then perhaps some bright and warmish weather to start the day, but if it does then expect a cool day. Quite windy, though nothing unusual.

Sunday probably looks OK (ish), some cloud, some sunshine, perhaps some showers – around 17’C.

More likely Bank Holiday Monday isn’t too bad either, some cloud, some sunshine, some showers possible – though certainly a chance of a weather front later in the day bringing something cloudier with some rain. Around 16’C.

As I mentioned, details are still a bit sketchy – definitely not any glorious sunshine, but probably not a washout, just very middling weather.

Next week likely sees further rain/showers and wind at times, though a small chance of a short hot spell later in the week, or for next weekend – one to watch but not expect.

Changeable will remain the theme for early June, but some of those changes could be short hot spells followed by thundery downpours.

Happier times for farmers and gardeners I guess!…

More warm sunshine to come, though some patchy cloud at times, more so early mornings.

Thanks to Isabel for the glorious photo.

So the general set-up sees high pressure centred over Scotland. We have a north-easterly breeze which will temper temperatures a little, and also bring a risk of some North Sea cloud, but mostly, more warm sunshine.

Friday starts sunny in some places, cloudy in others. The extent of the cloud may increase a little in the first part of the morning before breaking up to leave long spells of sunshine for the rest of the day, again perhaps a bit more cloud floating around later this afternoon. Fairly warm, 21’C just about feasible, though the north-easterly breeze will take the edge off. North Sea cloud likely spills back across overnight, down to around 8’C.

Saturday starts cloudy for most areas, a small chance of some sunny spells here and there. The cloud will break up, but likely taking a while to do so, perhaps taking until late morning to do so. Once it does, there will be good spells of sunshine, some fair-weather cloud, and again fairly warm – around 21’C. Low cloud spills back in overnight, down to around 8’C.

Sunday starts cloudy once more, but again the cloud will gradually break up – roughly by around late morning, give or take. Good spells of sunshine will follow, with a bit of fair-weather cloud. Fairly warm, around 20’C, still a north-easterly breeze. Cloud probably spreading across overnight again, down to around 8’C.

Monday probably starts fairly cloudy but again it will break up to leave good spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud bubbling up – a small chance of a heavy shower breaking out, say a 10% chance. Around 21’C. Low cloud probably spreading across overnight again, down to around 8’C.

By Tuesday there are signs of changes, low pressure in the Atlantic edging closer, but also low pressure over France and Scandinavia edging north/west towards us too.

The latter will increase our chance of showers for Tuesday, and also the uncertainty. More likely we’ll still see reasonable amounts of warm sunshine but say a 40% chance of some heavy, maybe thundery showers breaking out. Around 21’C or so. A small chance perhaps something cloudier with showery rain instead. Probably reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Fairly low confidence for Wednesday, but more likely dry and more likely on the sunny side of the spectrum. Temperatures around 20’C, perhaps a shade under.

Again some uncertainty for Thursday/Friday – low pressure in the Atlantic will be starting to make more progress towards us, at some point during those two days it will likely bring across a weather front with some patchy rain (probably fairly minimal amounts) – otherwise a mixture of cloud and sunshine, and temperatures roughly around 20’C.

For the bank holiday weekend? Yeah…you know. It’s not yet a done deal, but more likely low pressure is increasingly in control, with rain/showers at times, especially Sunday and Monday. Temperatures still quite warm though.

There is an alternative scenario where high pressure hangs on and we get some/all of the bank holiday with very warm sunshine, but I rate it no higher than a 20% chance.

For the week after, there is a very strong and consistent signal for a spell of wet weather, probably lasting into early June too. Temperatures probably quite variable, some quite warm and quite cool weather likely mixed in – and a chance of some brief southerly flows mixed in, so a day or two of very warm/quite hot weather followed by downpours.

Enjoy the sunshine whilst you can! Though it will be back.…

More sunshine to come this week, but some thundery downpours around today, and some cloud on other days.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

We start the week with high pressure to our west and also to our east – but this slack low pressure has spread up from Spain/Portugal – it will spin back on itself and head back into the Atlantic Ocean after today though.

Monday starts with a mixture of cloud and sunny spells, perhaps the odd sprinkling of rain here and there. From late morning onwards, thundery downpours will develop – not everywhere seeing them, some spots will stay dry, but likewise you could catch a few of them during the course of the afternoon, say a 60% chance of catching at least a couple. Downpours could be notable – there are Met Office weather warnings out. Warm and a little humid, around 22’C, perhaps up to 24’C if you miss the showers. Showers will quickly fade in the evening, fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Tuesday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up again with around a 50% chance of a heavy/very heavy shower, perhaps with thunder. There will be fewer showers than on Monday overall, but the focus area for them will be further south – on Monday the midland is more likely. Otherwise a reasonable amount of sunshine, and very warm, reaching around 25’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

Wednesday is back to glorious sunshine all day, little if any cloud – warm, around 23’C. Clear skies at first overnight – probably some low cloud spreading in from the North Sea towards dawn, but uncertain. Down to around 7’C.

Some uncertainty for Thursday, there is a good chance of North Sea cloud having spread across, so more likely we’ll have cloud for a fair portion of the day, perhaps all day. A smaller chance instead of little to no cloud. Temperatures depending on how much cloud there is, closer to 17’C if more cloudy, closer to 21’C otherwise. A good chance of more cloud overnight, but uncertain. Down to around 7’C.

So the set-up for Friday sees high pressure to the north, and an easterly flow – which will continue through the weekend.

Too early to be totally confident on cloud amounts – so forecasts could change nearer the time, but it will stay dry.

So the more likely outcome for Friday is back to something sunnier, though perhaps some low cloud at first. Around 20’C in the easterly breeze. Down to around 8’C overnight.

Similar uncertainty on cloud amounts for Saturday, probably on the sunnier side of the spectrum, but certainly chances of cloud at times, especially in the morning. Around 20’C.

Same story for Sunday really.

More likely next week stays warm with sunshine at times, though I suspect the shower chance may increase a little.

Fairly consistent signal now for a pattern change around the end of the month, a probably short unsettled/changeable spell around the end of May/beginning of June, with high pressure then more likely to build in from the south-west in June, instead of the north as it currently is.

Temperatures generally remaining warm.

Have a pleasant week.…

Warming up notably once more and often sunny. But there will be chances of thundery showers Sunday onwards.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

The general picture sees high pressure remain in control, low pressure far to our north-west, and also a flabby low over Spain/France which will organise somewhat and head closer to us by Sunday/Monday.

Early mist/low cloud will lift quickly on Friday to leave a mostly sunny day, a bit of fair-weather cloud at times. The breeze more easterly and light, so temperatures up a bit to around 19’C. Mostly clear skies overnight though a chance of some mist/low cloud by dawn. Down to around 8’C.

Again any early mist/low cloud quickly clearing on Saturday to leave good spells of sunshine, some cloud bubbling up but plenty of sunshine all day. Warm, 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though some high cloud later, down to around 10’C.

Uncertainty increases for Sunday as the aforementioned shallow low pressure heads north. Most likely it stays dry all day with sunny spells, though sometimes quite hazy. Very warm, around 25’C – maybe a little more. However, there is a chance of a heavy shower breaking out in the afternoon, or perhaps (unlikely but possible) some general showery rain developing – if general rain does develop it should be to our west, but the chance is there. Some cloud overnight and a small chance of a shower or some bits of showery rain – more likely it stays dry. Around 13’C.

Monday is uncertain, but more likely we’ll see some very warm hazy sunshine, perhaps quite humid too – but also some heavy, thundery downpours are likely to break out somewhere over the southern part of Britain, and this area more likely than others. Say a 70% chance of at least some showers, though plausible there is repeated heavy showers/downpours or even general rain developing. Temperatures very dependent on sunshine amounts and how quickly showers break out (assuming they do), anywhere between 20’C and 27’C – the upper part of the scale more likely. Showers fade in the evening, mostly clear skies overnight, down down to around 10’C.

High pressure starts to re-establish itself on Tuesday, the low hangs around for another day though.

Plenty of sunshine to start Tuesday, again cloud will bubble up with some heavy showers, perhaps thundery, breaking out – say a 60% chance of catching a couple. Very warm once more, around 25’C. Clear skies likely overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure back in control. Good spells of sunshine likely with some cloud – an easterly breeze so always a chance of importing some North Sea cloud, at least overnight and for the mornings, but too early to be sure, it seems sunshine more likely as it stands. Assuming a mostly sunny day, then warm again around 22’C.

Thursday and Friday will remain dry, though some uncertainty as to whether we’ll import any North Sea cloud overnight. More likely at least a good portion of each day will be sunny, and temperatures around the 19’C to 21’C range more likely.

Most likely warm and sunny next weekend too, perhaps even very warm/quite hot once more.

What have we done to deserve this all this great weather (great in my opinion, anyway)?!

Yes, it can continue, I see no reason to move away from mostly warm/very warm weather for most of May and June, though there are hints of something a little changeable around the end of May/beginning of June, though with high pressure re-establishing in June after a short changeable spell…perhaps from the south, allowing Spain to finally dry out.

Also a chance of the odd thundery incursion before the end of May.

Enjoy your weekend!…

High pressure still in control, though positioned to allow a cooler north-easterly flow, for now.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

We start the week with high pressure located just to the west of Scotland, but that means a chilly north-easterly breeze.

Monday sees lots of cloud around, you might even catch a shower though the middle part of the day, small chances anyway. A bit of sunshine at times, more so later in the day but still plenty of cloud. Around 14’C or so. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though some cloud – down to around 3’C.

Tuesday starts with some sunny spells, some cloud. Generally becoming more overcast for the afternoon, perhaps earlier – temperatures reaching around 14’C or so, perhaps a little more if sunshine amounts surprise. The cool north-easterly breeze persisting. Fairly cloudy overnight though the low cloud being replaced by high cloud – down to around 4’C.

Wednesday looks mostly cloudy once more, though the cloud thin enough for hazy sunshine to poke through at times, more likely in the morning. We’ll still have the north-easterly breeze, and temperatures reaching around 15’C, give or take. A fair amount of cloud overnight, perhaps even a spot of light rain, down to around 7’C.

Subtle changes by Thursday as the high shifts around a bit, and the breeze becomes more easterly. Still likely a lot of cloud around, especially during the lunchtime period, but more sunny spells than the previous two days – especially later in the day. A little warmer, around 17’C or so. Probably clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Similar set-up for Friday, high pressure centred over the north of Scotland with an easterly flow.

Probably good spells of sunshine by this stage, some fair-weather cloud especially around lunchtime. Reaching around 18’C so quite warm, maybe a tad more. Clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Saturday looks very pleasant, good spells of sunshine, a little bit of cloud. Temperatures around 18’C, perhaps scraping a 20’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

Most likely Sunday remains fairly sunny, some cloud more likely to bubble up and a very small chance of an afternoon shower. Around 20’C, give or take.

The more likely outcome for next week is that high pressure stays in control, with more sunshine and temperatures broadly in the range of 17’C to 22’C, depending on exact positioning of high pressure.

There is a small chance instead that low pressure over Spain/France moves north and we end up more showery – but I do feel most likely this showery regime remains over the Mediterranean at least for another week or two.

Maybe some showers for us later in the month.

Have a pleasant week.…

A hot end to the week but becoming much cooler as the bank holiday weekend progresses. Some showers, but mostly fair.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph – you can just about see the blue sky!

So the general picture sees high pressure remain in control, though our weather is arguably more influenced by low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal, which is dragging up the hotter upper air from Africa. Low pressure towards Iceland will then take over as the weekend goes on, dragging cooler air south.

Hazy sunshine is the theme for today, long spells of sunshine but often enough high cloud to make it rather hazy, and a bit of fair-weather cloud bubbling up this afternoon too. A very small chance of a heavy shower breaking out, say 5% chance. Hot in the southerly breeze, we will reach 28’C, maybe 29’C – a chance even of 30’C, which I believe would be the earliest 30’C recorded in a year by 11 days. Mostly clear skies overnight, some high cloud though, around 14’C. A very small chance of a shower.

We mostly hang on to the sunshine and warmth on Friday, long spells of sometimes-hazy sunshine, some fair-weather cloud bubbling up in the afternoon. A very small chance of a heavy shower breaking out, but otherwise still very warm, around 25’C, give or take, though the breeze now more northerly. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

Saturday continues very pleasant, further sunny spells though notably lower temperatures, say around 21’C. There will be a weather front trying to push north, which may introduce more cloud in the afternoon, but any rain should stay to our south. Mostly clear skies overnight though rather chilly – down to 5’C.

By Sunday we see high pressure to our north-west with a northerly breeze. Quite a vibe change.

Sunny spells to start the day on Sunday, but some cloud will develop and push in – uncertain as to the extent, a completely cloudy afternoon is plausible, though more likely in a mixture of sunny and cloudy spells. Temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 17’C, depending on cloud amounts. A mixture of clear skies and cloudier spells overnight, down to around 5’C.

Bank Holiday Monday probably will be much cloudier, perhaps a light shower – and assuming a lack of sunshine then temperatures around 13’C, and feeling cool in the northerly breeze. A chilly night likely.

For the rest of next week, high pressure likely remains in control though something on the cloudier and cooler side of things is the more likely outcome, say 12’C to 14’C – though by no meals certain at this stage.

Most likely high pressure is still in charge for next weekend, and early suggestions are that it might be back in a more favourable position for more sunshine and somewhat warmer weather, if perhaps 15’C to 20’C level of warmth, as opposed to what we have now.

Later in May still seems more likely warmer but with an increased chance of afternoon showers. Long way away, of course.

Enjoy the bank holiday weekend!…