A warm end to spring, then a mixed start to summer – though not that much rain in the mix.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

So the general picture sees a westerly flow with the jetstream fairly close to our north, but also we are just about tapping into some of the heat coming up from Africa and into western Europe – will be close to 40’C in some parts of southern Spain/Portugal which seems pretty extraordinary for late May.

Friday starts rather cloudy – it will gradually break up during the morning to leave reasonable amounts of sunny spells for the afternoon, though it will also become hazier as high cloud spreads across. Very warm, temperatures will depend on how quickly the cloud clears, but roughly between 24’C and 26’C. High level cloud overnight, around 14’C.

Saturday starts sunny – probably it becomes rather cloudy for a time around late morning/lunchtime, before becoming sunnier early afternoon onwards, though the timing of this potential cloudier spell is uncertain. Broadly speaking a very pleasant day, and likely quite hot, around 27’C – though with the uncertainty of how cloudy it might become and for how long, a cloudier scenario would be a bit lower in terms of temperatures but still very warm. Some clear spells at times overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday starts fairly sunny. Again cloud will spread across, likely more cloud than sunshine overall for the lunchtime period, then sunnier again later in the day. A small chance of a passing shower, won’t amount to much if you do catch one. Less warm but still very pleasant, around 21’C, a little breezy too. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Monday will be another pleasant day, sunny for a good portion of the morning, cloud bubbling up around lunchtime for a few hours but still bright enough, then sunnier later in the day again. A very small chance of a shower. Warm, around 22’C. Clear skies at first overnight, cloud building later. Around 11’C.

By Tuesday we see a new area of low pressure approach and cross the UK, though it gets blocked and shifts north over the next couple of days.

So Tuesday will see a band of rain cross at some point, a few hours of rain but totals fairly low-moderate. Timing uncertain, sunny spells will follow. Around 18’C and windy. Probably dry with clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.

Not especially high confidence for Wednesday, but the more likely outcome is for something quite cloudy, some sunny spells, one or two showers possible, and around 19’C. Still breezy. There is a smaller chance of a spell of rain instead.

Probably either a spell of rain or showers for Thursday, again not especially high confidence.

Next weekend is highly uncertain – certainly a chance that we tap into the heat to our south, which could also mean some thundery downpours. But other options more likely, say something similar to this weekend, or something more average with some showers. As I said a lot of uncertainty.

The changeable theme is more likely to continue after this, though with the emphasis more on warm/very warm and sunny days, and fewer days with showers/rain/cloud – and a chance of short hot/very hot spells mixed in.

Have a pleasant weekend – I will be doing the summer forecast soon, hopefully early next week.