A benign week ahead, mild, often cloudy and mostly dry.

The photograph this week comes from me…my annual (ish) day out in Reading! The station area has changed a fair bit in recent years!

We start the week with high pressure centred to our south-west, which will become centred towards the UK in the coming days, with a return to the unusually warm upper air (ie high in the atmosphere) – not quite having as much effect down here, but definitely on the mild/quite warm side.

So today will be mostly cloudy, the remnants of a weak weather front hanging around as it decays – which will likely bring some occasional bits of light rain/drizzle, but very limited amounts. A few breaks in the cloud, more likely this morning. Around 15’C, maybe 16’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd spot of drizzle but mostly dry, around 12’C.

Tuesday starts mostly cloudy but the sun will break through at times to bring some sunny spells – also one or two light/moderate showers around. 16’C, maybe 17’C. Mostly cloudy overnight – fog patches may form by dawn in places, and down to around 9’C.

Wednesday still has plenty of cloud around, but a bit more in the way of sunny spells than previous days – fairly pleasant for the time of year. Reaching around 15’C, maybe 16’C. Some clear spells at first overnight, mist/fog patches forming later in the night – not everywhere. A cooler night at around 6’C.

By Thursday, high pressure is slapped right over the UK. Oh where were you in summer?!

Early mist/fog/low cloud will break up – still likely plenty of fair-weather cloud for the rest of the day, but some decent sunny spells likely too. Around 15’C, maybe 16’C. Mist/fog forming fairly widely overnight, low cloud elsewhere – down to around 8’C.

Very little change for Friday, early mist/fog patches lifting, but plenty of cloud remaining – fairly limited sunny spells, if any. Around 14’C or so. Cloudy overnight, around 9’C.

High pressure still in control for the weekend – likely a lot of cloud on Saturday, perhaps some sunny spells later – around 14’C. A chilly night possible.

Less confidence on cloud/sunshine amounts for Sunday – but perhaps more likely on the sunnier side, depending on exactly where high pressure is centred. Around 12’C.

High pressure very likely still around next week – too far away to have any confidence on cloud/sunshine levels, though chillier nights perhaps more likely. Mist/fog remaining very possible by night.

Similar conditions may well persist through the whole of next week – with something more unsettled perhaps by mid-November.…

High pressure building is the theme, though not totally dry yet. And mostly mild too.

Thanks to Zara for the photograph.

The general picture right now sees high pressure to our west, also to our east, with a little low close by which is going to fade and sink south towards Spain.

Friday starts rather cloudy, some sunny breaks around but plenty of cloud. A weak weather front will slow work east, bringing some patchy rain later in the morning and through lunch – sporadic in nature, you might even stay dry, but the odd heavy burst could be mixed in too. Spells of sunshine will follow from early/mid afternoon, and reaching 17’C. Clear spells at first overnight, but low cloud spreading up from the south in the second part of the night, perhaps some drizzle – mist/fog forming in places too. Around 11’C.

Saturday starts cloudy, perhaps with mist/fog, and also some patchy light rain/drizzle too. Staying like this for much of the day, though we should see sunny spells by late afternoon as the cloud very slowly moves east. Around 13’C. Mostly clear skies overnight for most of the night, though a weak weather front will bring more cloud towards dawn. Down to around 8’C.

Sunday looks sunny, but fresher as we’ll have lost the warm upper air, at least for now. 12’C, maybe 13’C. Clear spells at first overnight but slowly clouding over as another weakening weather front pushes down – some patchy and mostly light rain in the latter part of the night, towards dawn. Down to around 6’C.

Monday looks rather cloudy – some brightness at times, but also some bits and pieces of rain/drizzle at times – though not amounting to much. A touch milder, around 14’C and breezy too. Remaining mostly cloudy overnight with bits and pieces of light rain/drizzle. Around 12’C.

By Tuesday the high pressure to our west is having more influence, and it will continue to build over the next couple of days.

Likely mostly cloudy with bits and piece of light rain/drizzle – and reaching around 14’C, maybe 15’C. Continuing mostly cloudy overnight, drizzle possible, fog very possible.

Likely cloudy for Wednesday morning, with a foggy start very possible – perhaps sunny spells in the afternoon, certainly more chance than previous days. Around 14’C or so again. Fog very possible overnight.

Thursday looks broadly similar, cloudy in the morning, very possibly foggy to start too – some sunny spells possible later, and still around 14’C.

There’s a chance of somewhat colder conditions spreading down either Friday or next weekend, nothing especially unusual but colder nights could mean frost more possible. Most likely we’ll stay mostly dry.

November in general currently looks more likely to start dry, though perhaps more unsettled by mid-month with low pressure closer to the south of the UK – or perhaps over the continent.

Suggestions remain for a drier than normal winter, at least December and January – but of course there can still be wet spells in amongst that. Some cold and frosty spells look very possible in November and December, less sure about January.

February is too far away, and lots can happen before then, but current expectations would be for something broadly mild and somewhat more unsettled being more likely.

Have a fun weekend…I should actually be in Reading for the first time this year also on Saturday!…

High pressure in control this week, so drier than it has been – but still some rain and showers around.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

We start the week with Storm Ashley pulling away, which wasn’t and was never going to be much of a feature for the southern half of Britain, and high pressure to the south-west which will move this way over the next couple of days.

Monday starts cloudy due to a weather front straddling the far south-east of England and northern France – we may see a little light rain at times from this, but more likely we’ll stay dry. Brightening up later, though probably not until the end of the day. Around 14’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, a small chance of some mist/fog patches by dawn, and down to around 7’C.

Tuesday starts sunny. A weak weather front will cross late morning onwards, with some cloud and a few scattered showers – around a 50% chance of catching one or two – but still some sunny spells also. Around 15’C or so. Clear spells overnight – fog developing more widely in the early hours, many places foggy by dawn, but not all. Down to around 6’C.

Wednesday starts with fog/mist/low cloud for most, if not all areas. It will take a while to lift, but it will by late morning at the latest, followed by sunny spells, fair-weather cloud – one or two light/moderate showers around through the lunchtime period, a 40% chance of catching one, drier and sunnier later. Around 16’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though becoming quite breezy so fog unlikely – down to around 9’C.

By Thursday we see high pressure having moved over to central/eastern Europe, with a more southerly flow for us. A cut-off low also forming to the south of the main low pressure system near Iceland – which will complicate our weather.

Thursday sees areas of cloud moving east, though there will be some bright/sunny spells at times, and temperatures around 16’C, maybe a bit more – under the influence of the southerly flow. Some rain/showers probably overnight, though uncertain on details – around 12’C.

Low pressure in charge for Friday, so sunny spells and showers the more likely outcome – but it will depend on exact positioning of the low, so something more cloudy possible. Around 14’C.

Low confidence on details for Saturday, but broadly Friday’s low should decay and we’ll pick up more of a westerly flow – which means likely we’ll be on the cloudier side of the spectrum, some bits of rain possible but nothing especially wet likely. Around 14’C.

Again details are sketchy for Sunday as it will depend on the timing of weather fronts – which could be anywhere between overnight Saturday and Sunday afternoon. So broadly speaking in a westerly flow so perhaps quite windy, some outbreaks of rain at some point and around 14’C or so. Sunny spells following the weather front – whenever that is!

The same kind of pattern next week of high pressure broadly in control, with some bits of rain as weather fronts skirt around – though perhaps more of a chill in the air. Some overnight fog very possible next week.

Have a good week.…

Some fine weather mixed with some rain – and staying on the mild side. Not too bad for October.

Thanks to Philippa for the photograph.

Today will be a fairly pleasant day, some spells of sunshine, some cloud around – both high cloud making it hazy, and also some bits of lower cloud, but broadly pleasant and reaching around 17’C, maybe 18’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though mist/fog patches forming by dawn. Down to around 7’C.

The general pattern as we go into Friday sees the Azores high ridging up into the UK, but low pressure to our west trying to send weather fronts across – they’ll take in turns influencing our weather.

Friday itself will be a pleasant day with good spells of sunshine, once any mist/fog has cleared in the morning. High cloud building later in the afternoon. Reaching around 16’C, maybe 17’C – still higher than normal for the time of year. Cloud thickens in the evening, some bits and pieces of mostly light/moderate rain for a time mid/late evening, then towards dawn some more notable and heavier showery rain will arrive. Mild and breezy overnight, around 13’C.

Saturday morning looks cloudy with some showery rain, some heavy, perhaps very heavy bursts mixed in, but it will be showery of nature. Becoming sunny from late morning (ish), some fair-weather cloud but pleasant – and reaching around 16’C. Clear spells at first overnight, though clouding over towards dawn. Down to around 10’C.

Sunday sees the next weather front cross, associated with that low pressure system now close to the west of Ireland. So, cloudy in the morning with outbreaks of rain – though also notably windy with some strong gusts around 40mph or so. Perhaps a short dry-ish interlude over lunchtime, before further rain in the afternoon, perhaps briefly very heavy and squally – uncertain as to whether a squall line could develop at this stage. Still reaching around 17’C. Winds easing in the evening and overnight, dry with high cloud developing. Around 10’C.

By Monday we see that low pressure system shift north, and high pressure start to build over the south.

Plenty of sunshine, some fair-weather cloud and reaching around 15’C or so – quite breezy. Clear skies likely overnight, down to around 7’C.

Tuesday looks a bit more mixed, again sunny spells and fair-weather cloud, but one or two showers possible. Around 16’C or so.

By Wednesday, details are more uncertain but broadly speaking it will remain very mild, dry more likely than wet, uncertain on cloud amounts.

Thursday or Friday will probably see weather fronts try to push across from the west again, though very likely we stay very mild, if not quite warm in southerly/south-westerly flows.

Maybe after that it cools down, with increasing chances of overnight fog/frost – with settled conditions more likely than wind/rain – broadly speaking.

Enjoy your weekend…I’m exciting to actually be not going away anywhere for the first time since early September!…

Becoming much warmer than normal, but some heavy showery rain at times too.

Thanks to Fiona for the photoghraph.

So we start the week with a small area of low pressure crossing the country, with another heading towards Spain – that and the larger air of low pressure to our west will drive warmth our way. And more rain.

Monday starts with rain, heavy perhaps very heavy. The rain clear pretty quickly during the morning, some light rain/drizzle still possible into lunchtime but becoming dry, though remaining mostly cloudy. Reaching around 12’C. Staying mostly cloudy overnight, the odd spot of drizzle possible but mostly it will be dry. Down to around 9’C.

Tuesday will be cloudy but mostly dry, bar the odd spot of light rain/drizzle. Towards the end of the day, something a bit brighter possible. Temperatures much higher than they have been, in a southerly breeze, 17’C should be reached. Some showers likely in the evening and overnight, though the bulk of the rain should be further to our west – I wouldn’t say that the position is guaranteed though. A mild night, 14’C.

Some uncertainty on details for Wednesday, at least for timings of showers. During the morning, more likely the bulk of the showers/rain remain to our west, though certainly a shower or two will be possible, which could be heavy/very heavy – but also some bright spells possible in amongst plenty of cloud – and 21’C could be reached. Later in the afternoon or evening, the heavier and more persistent rain likely spreads across. Most likely overnight, the rain clear east leaving a rather cloudy night, perhaps still some drizzle at times – and a very mild night at 15’C.

Thursday looks a more pleasant day, any remaining cloud will break up during the morning to leave sunny spells, some high cloud, some fair-weather cloud. Still on the quite warm side for the time of year, around 17’C or so. Reasonably clear skies overnight, some high cloud though, down to around 8’C.

By Friday we have more of a westerly flow developing, with a large area of low pressure heading towards us.

Friday is somewhat uncertain – the somewhat more likely outcome is for a fine and pleasant day, spells of hazy sunshine most of the day – though cloud thickening towards late afternoon. But there is instead a smallish chance of further heavy rain spreading up from France. Around 16’C. A band of rain likely crossing either evening or overnight – some uncertainty at this stage.

Not especially high confidence for the weekend, but more likely Saturday is fair with some sunny spells – around 14’C or so.

For Sunday the more likely outcome is something cloudier with some rain – probably light/moderate and patchy, though as I said, pretty low confidence on details. Likely a bit warmer again though, say 16’C.

Next week likely starts warmer than usual again, though uncertain on conditions otherwise – there are hints of longer dry spells in late October, but no more than hints right now.…

Well it’s definitely getting more autumnal, a somewhat drier and cooler interlude this weekend, before a wetter but warmer spell next week.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

The general picture into Friday sees a north-westerly flow thanks to a weak area of high pressure close by – low pressure systems quite far to our north-east, and also one to the west of Spain/Portugal.

A sunny start to Friday, once any mist/fog patches have cleared. Decent spells of sunshine continue for the day, though some cloud bubbling up in the afternoon. Around 12’C. Cloud spreading up from the south overnight, perhaps a bit of light rain/drizzle at times, around 7’C.

Saturday starts rather cloudy, some brightness at times perhaps. A weak weather front will be edging east during the day which will bring a bit of rain from time to time, though often it will be dry. Some bright/sunny spells possible, especially later in the afternoon, around 14’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, though some high cloud, down to around 4’C.

Sunday sees hazy sunshine all day – high pressure trying to build but weather fronts trying to edge in from the west, hence the layer of high/mid-level cloud all day. Around 11’C. That weather front will cross overnight, bringing some rain – around 10’C.

Monday starts cloudy, perhaps still some showery rain around. Gradually it will brighten up somewhat – and also become warmer. Don’t get too excited, it is mid-October, but around 17’C or so. Cloud or mist/fog likely to develop overnight – uncertain on temperatures.

By Tuesday we have a more southerly flow developing.

Likely on the cloudy side, especially in the morning – early mist/fog also possible. It may brighten up with some sunshine later in the day, but uncertain. Temperatures somewhere in the range of 16’C to 19’C and becoming quite windy. Rain likely spreading north overnight, though a mild night.

Wednesday broadly speaking looks like cloudy to start with some rain, gradually becoming brighter and drier – though details uncertain. It will still be warm for the time of year, somewhere between 17’C and 20’C, and quite windy still.

The warmth should hang on for Thursday, but otherwise conditions uncertain – certainly a fair chance of further showers/rain.

Broadly similar conditions for Friday and into next weekend – temperatures generally on the very mild/quite warm side, but further rain and wind expected at times.

Yeah, it’s definitely autumn.…

A mixed week ahead, and it will get cooler later – though ex-hurricane Kirk looks like it will track over France now…mostly.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

So the general set-up sees a large area of low pressure still close to our west, which will slowly move east.

Sunny spells and showers for Monday, the showers tending to be most frequent through late morning into early afternoon – though possible either side of this period too. Probably heavy, a small chance of thunder. Tending to fade later in the afternoon – I guess not impossible that you miss all the showers, say a 10% chance of staying dry all day in your location. Reaching 17’C, maybe 18’C. A more organised band of heavy/very heavy showers moving through later in the evening, arriving roughly 9/10pm, and lasting 2-3 hours, a small chance of thunder. Dry for the latter part of the night, and around 11’C.

Tuesday sees more in the way of showers, pretty much from dawn though becoming heavier and more frequent during the day. Most likely you’ll see multiple showers, heavy/very heavy, thunder possible. Breezy, quite gusty in the showers and reaching around 18’C when sunny. Showers continuing into the evening and overnight, to an extent, though fewer overnight. Down to around 12’C.

Fewer showers for Wednesday but still some developing, as low pressure moves away to our east. Lots of cloud, some sunny spells, some showers – potentially heavy but less likely to be so than recent days. 16’C, maybe 17’C and becoming windy later in the day. Cloud thickening overnight, some light rain at times likely, down to around 9’C.

By Thursday, we see ex-hurricane Kirk over northern France and heading into the North Sea – with a northerly flow being pulled down.

Some uncertainty on details due to the track of ex-hurricane Kirk, but most likely cloudy, some rain possible – I currently expect the bulk of the heavy rain to stay over the other side of the English Channel, but it is within the realm of possibility that it tracks north enough to bring us a spell of heavy rain. Otherwise, bits of rain, mostly light and mostly cloudy seems most likely. Feeling cooler in the northerly wind, around 10’C. Skies clearing overnight and a fairly cold night, down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Friday looks fair, plenty of sunshine in the morning, more in the way of cloud in the afternoon but still plenty of sunshine. Around 12’C. Most likely clear skies overnight and another fairly cold night, down to around 2’C with a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Somewhat uncertain for Saturday with no pressure pattern particularly in control. More likely it will be dry with some sunshine, some cloud. Though a weak weather front cannot be ruled out. Still on the cool side, around 13’C or so.

Again fairly low confidence for Sunday, but dry or mostly dry and cool seems the most likely outcome.

Suggestions of something a bit warmer/drier for next week, but I’m not putting too much credence on anything more than 5 days ahead right now, with 3 active hurricanes in the North Atlantic.

But if the second half of October was drier than the first half, that would fit expectations right now.…

A fairly changeable week ahead, with an eye on what Hurricane Kirk does, which will track towards western Europe next week – as an ex-hurricane, of course, but could still pack a meteorological punch.

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

The general synoptic picture sees a ridge of high pressure holding on, with low pressure systems slowly edging east during the weekend.

Any early mist/fog patches will clear this morning to leave sunny spells, plenty of fair-weather cloud, and gradually more high/mid-level cloud from the west as the afternoon goes on, making the sunny spells hazier. Reaching around 16’C. Some cloud at first though this will tend to break up to leave clear spells later in the night, down to around 5’C.

Saturday looks a reasonably pleasant day. Plenty of sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud around, and some more high cloud moving in from the west in the afternoon to make it hazier. Around 16’C again. Cloud continues to thicken overnight as a weakening weather front crosses – likely some showery rain, but dry most of the time. Around 11’C.

Sunday starts rather cloudy and damp, some bits of light rain/drizzle around. It will slowly brighten up, some sunny spells for the afternoon – before another weather front arrives, this time bringing a short spell of heavy/very heavy rain. Timing a bit uncertain, late afternoon at the earliest, more likely through early/mid evening, lasting an hour or two, most likely – a small chance of hail/thunder. Some warmer air before this arrives, reaching around 18’C. Mostly clear spells overnight, though a shower possible closer to dawn, around 11’C.

By Monday, our low pressure edges closer, with Hurricane Kirk (still likely a hurricane) approaching further back.

Monday is broadly themed as sunshine and showers, probably heavy – though whether there are few showers or plentiful showers is uncertain at this stage, though plentiful looks more likely. Around 17’C and breezy, especially in showers. Showers still possible overnight, around 12’C.

Tuesday continues this theme, some sunny spells, some heavy showers – again uncertain as to whether few or plentiful at this stage. Around 18’C and breezy.

From here details are more uncertain, and it will depend on how ex-hurricane Kirk interacts with our low pressure system, and the jetstream.

More likely it will head to either France or southern England, likely bringing spells of heavy rain and possibly strong winds, though also a slightly more tropical feel to the air.

If the centre tracks over southern England, there is the potential for gales and some damaging gusts, if it tracks over France then winds won’t be a story.

Timing of arrival uncertain – but either Wednesday or Thursday.

Most likely, a colder northerly flow will follow by either Friday or Saturday, though tending to be drier – and drier conditions more likely to follow the week after, though with low confidence.

Enjoy your weekend, I have a day off to wander around Budapest today…alas it is still raining and has been since Wednesday!…

Hello from, erm, Budapest. I know, I know, but it isn’t a holiday, sadly. And isn’t even that warm – not much difference from the UK. A few drier days to come, but more unsettled weather will follow.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure building to our north, and the low pressure system that brought the recent rain slowly slip into the continent…and head towards central Europe.

Today will be mostly cloudy, bar some early brightness possible. Further rain will spread down from the north during the morning, some heavy bursts likely for a time, before it becomes more showery and starts to fade late in the day. Around 14’C but feeling pretty cool in the wind. Cloudy with occasional bits of light rain overnight, around 12’C.

Plenty of cloud again on Wednesday, but the sun will come a bit, though there will also be a few showers during the day. We should just about squeeze 16’C and it will remain breezy. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 7’C.

Thursday sees more in the way of sunshine, though still a fair amount of cloud bubbling up during the middle part of the day – one or two fairly innocuous showers around. Reaching around 16’C or so. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C so pretty chilly.

By Friday we sees a ridge of high pressure in control, though low pressure out to the west edging our way once more.

Friday will therefore be a fine and pleasant day, good sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud and around 16’C. High cloud pushing across overnight as weather fronts approach, down to around 7’C.

Saturday morning looks cloudy but bright, with temperatures reaching around 17’C. Rain will arrive at some point – more likely during the night but perhaps as early as the afternoon – so some uncertainty on timing here.

Uncertain for Sunday, low pressure will be close by but whether it is raining or not will depend on the positioning of weather fronts. Probably on the warmer side though, around 16’C if raining – 20’C not out of the question if we can time a pleasant day between weather fronts.

Further rain or showers is the more likely outcome for Monday/Tuesday.

Later next week we will have to keep an eye on what will become ex-hurricane Kirk, which may have some impacts depending on the track it takes. Whether those impacts are heavy rain/strong winds, or just some warmth, is way too early to tell.…