Staying very mild with rain at times in the coming week – perhaps colder the week after, but that’s a long way away.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph.

So we are still in this position where high pressure over Europe is blocking Atlantic low pressure system from crossing the UK, but it’s close enough to send weather fronts across at times.

Sunday is a sunny start for many, though there are a few fog patches around. Cloud will gradually build during the day to make the sunshine increasingly hazy, but it will stay dry. Just about getting to 14’C and breezy later. Showery rain arriving later in the evening, some heavy bursts likely overnight – 12’C.

Monday sees further showery rain, some heavy bursts at times, especially in the morning and around lunchtime. Less showers in the afternoon but still some around – some brightness at times. Around 13’C and breezy. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

Tuesday looks bright at times, but there will be plenty of cloud around thanks to the next set of weather fronts. Perhaps some bits of rain in the morning, but the first area should be further to our north – the main band of rain arriving in the evening at some point, perhaps more likely late evening though uncertain on the timing. Very mild, around 15’C and windy. Showery outbreaks of rain continuing overnight, still windy, still mild – around 14C.

Wednesday most likely is a cloudy day with further outbreaks of rain at times. Very mild and breezy, 15’C. Likely cloudy overnight, further rain possible later in the night but uncertain. Around 13’C.

By Thursday the low pressure system to our west is kind of giving up trying to cross the UK, and starts to sink south towards the Azores.

Uncertain on weather conditions at this stage. It will still be very mild, but whether it is a wet day or there is some hazy sunshine to be had – uncertain.

Likewise Friday, the very mild weather hangs on but where weather fronts will be is uncertain. It will likely rain at some point(s) on Thursday and/or Friday, but when it highly uncertain.

Details for next weekend are highly uncertain – colder (and drier) weather is going to try to push down from the north. Will it make it? Not sure.

I’d say Saturday is 65/35 in favour of very mild. Sunday more 50/50. Monday more 70/30 is favour of colder.

So there is a good chance of something colder and drier for the w/c 17th November, at least for a few days – perhaps overnight frost, perhaps fog.

No strong signals after that, though I’d say a return to something more unsettled and milder is the more likely outcome for late November.

Have a good Sunday.…

Very mild and fairly mixed weather ahead.

Thanks to Luci for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure over Europe trying to block the Atlantic from sending low pressure systems across – and we are on the border, so it looks fairly mixed with neither settled or unsettled weather dominating right now.

We start Thursday fairly cloudy, some bright spells around but also some bits of showery rain around too. The afternoon remains fairly cloudy, but there will be some hazy sunshine at times. Very mild, 16’C, maybe even 17’C. A mild and fairly cloudy night, patchy mist/fog possible later in the night, and a chance of one or two showers also before dawn. Around 13’C.

Friday morning sees a few showers around, perhaps heavy, plenty of cloud though also some brightness. Probably somewhat sunnier through the lunchtime period (give or take) before a band of rain arrives mid/late afternoon, bringing 2-3 hours of patchy rain. Mild, around 15’C and becoming a bit breezier later in the day. Skies gradually clearing overnight, though fog may form in places towards dawn – around 9’C.

Saturday will be a pleasant day once any fog/low cloud in the morning has cleared – uncertain as to what extent fog/low cloud will have developed, and if it has, when it will break up. At best, it could be mostly sunny all day, at worst it will take until early afternoon to break up. Roughly around 14’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, a chance of fog patches forming in the latter half of the night – down to around 7’C, though very give and take on that.

By Sunday we’ll start to see weather fronts edge our way, but for most or all of the day it should be reasonably pleasant for the time of year, some sunshine, some cloud and still mild – around 14’C. Outbreaks of rain probably cross overnight.

Not yet able to do details for Monday, but broadly speaking rain clearing – just how long it takes to clear is uncertain, perhaps in the morning with sunny spells to follow – perhaps it lasts much of the day. Around 13’C or so.

By Tuesday low pressure will be making more of an effort to push our way – but it will still be blocked from doing so.

Day to day details not yet possible for next week, but broadly speaking it will be the same pattern of occasional weather fronts bringing some rain, but often dry.

Often cloudy but sometimes sunny, overnight fog possible. The one detail I’m most confident on is it being mild or very mild, with a southerly flow from Africa so I wouldn’t be surprised to see 17’C reached at some point next week, though broadly around 14’C.

No strong signals for the latter half of November, perhaps some coldish weather for a short spell, though likely to balance out as milder than normal overall. And otherwise fairly mixed, some dry spells, some rain at times.

Have a good end to the week.…

Fairly unsettled but generally mild/very mild is the theme.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

The general synoptics see us in a westerly flow, a pretty standard autumnal pattern.

Today (Sunday) will be a reasonable day though, plenty of sunshine, some fair weather cloud, a small chance of a stray shower in the early afternoon period. Around 12’C and breezy. A little chilly at first tonight, down to around 6’C though temperatures lifting in the second half of the night as cloud thickens, with some patchy rain.

Monday morning will be fairly cloudy, some bright spells, perhaps a bit of patchy rain at times. Probably somewhat sunnier in the afternoon. Mild, 15’C, maybe 16’C – generally quite windy. Fairly cloudy overnight, some bits of light rain possible – around 13’C.

Tuesday looks fairly cloudy again, some bits of light rain possible at times, some brightness too. More general showery rain might spread up from the south-west in the afternoon, though uncertain – the track looks slightly more likely to be further to our west as it stands. Still mild, 15’C, maybe 16’C and generally quite windy. Generally cloudy and mild overnight, some bits of rain possible – around 14’C.

More of the same for Wednesday, plenty of cloud but some brightness possible – likewise some showery rain possible, though again uncertain on the track, and more likely focused further west of us. Very mild, 16’C – perhaps a little more thanks to the injection of tropical air via ex-Hurricane Melissa. Cloudy and mild overnight, probably some showery rain – but again details uncertain. Around 14’C.

Lower confidence by Thursday, low pressure still around so further showers possible.

By Friday, I think we’ll start to see high pressure over the continent trying to put a stop to the westerly flow.

Quite a messy picture of neither high pressure or low pressure really having control for Friday and into next weekend – probably at least one weather front will cross during this period with some rain, then otherwise a mixture of cloudy spells and sunny spells, with temperatures roughly around 12’C or so.

Probably we’ll see high pressure having more influence over our weather for the second half of November, though it’s not a very strong signal.

Have a pleasant Sunday.…