Hello from Helsinki! Low pressure is back so rain and showers is the theme, though still on the warm side – certainly warmer than in Helsinki.

I’m on holiday so less looking at weather models than normal, so there is a bit less data in my head to go from.

Thanks to Karen for the photograph.

The general overview sees low pressure (ex-Hurricane Erin, I think) approaching, which will kind of spin around our shores for a few days.

Thursday starts fairly sunny but cloud will soon bubble up with heavy showers breaking out widely – most likely you’ll catch a few during the day, some heavy/very heavy downpours possible, a small chance of thunder. Reaching around 20’C and notably breezy in the showers. Most of the showers fade in the evening, but still one or two possible overnight, down to around 13’C.

Friday looks like it will start with a cluster of heavy showers, or perhaps just general heavy rain. This will clear during the morning to be followed by sunny spells and scattered heavy/very heavy showers. Breezy at times, reaching around 21’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Saturday starts sunny and dry. Cloud will gradually thicken from the west with outbreaks of rain arriving at some point in the afternoon, maybe early evening at the latest. Around 6 hours of showery rain once it arrives. Reaching around 23’C before the rain arrives – becoming quite windy by the afternoon. Skies clearing overnight once the rain clears, down to around 14’C.

By Sunday the same low pressure will still be centred in a similar position, just to the west of Scotland.

A windy day ensues, with some sunny spells and perhaps some scattered showers – though some uncertainty on the showers, certainly plausible that we stay dry here. Reaching around 22’C. Showers possible overnight.

Monday looks like sunny spells and heavy/very heavy showers, perhaps with thunder. Temperatures a tad lower, say around 19’C.

Most likely then a few more days of either sunshine and heavy showers, or general areas of rain.

Possible that it becomes drier for the weekend, certainly some signs pointing to the drier and more settled weather returning either for next weekend or week two onwards of September, though a long way away meteorologically.

Have a pleasant weekend, I need to go explore Helsinki!…

Often sunny and very warm to start, though gradually becoming more unsettled and less warm as next week goes on, as ex-Hurricane Erin slowly grinds her way through. She’s a pattern-changer.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So we start the forecast period with high pressure in control – ex-Hurricane Erin in the western part of the Atlantic Ocean.

Sunday starts sunny. Quite a lot bubbling up through the middle part of the day, likely more cloud than sun for a fair amount of time – though breaking up later in the day, with more sunny spells. Warm, just about squeezing 24’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Bank Holiday Monday looks glorious – long spells of sunshine, a little high cloud in the afternoon and very warm, reaching around 26’C. Clear skies for much of the night, though cloud increasing towards dawn. A warmer night, down to around 16’C.

Tuesday morning sees the first of the weather fronts crossing. Some uncertainty, but a couple of hours of heavy, showery rain is probable at some point in the morning – perhaps it all fizzles out by time it gets here, but more likely there is some showery rain. Sunny spells and fair-weather cloud follow for the afternoon, a small chance of a shower, and still very warm – just about getting to 26’C again, or a shade under. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

By Wednesday, ex-Hurricane Erin hasn’t really moved much over the last day or so, but starts to track towards us.

Probably Wednesday starts sunny, but cloud will bubble up in the morning, perhaps a shower. In the afternoon/evening, timing uncertain, a weather front will push across. No guarantee of any rain/showers, it may all fizzle out as it struggles to cross – but probably there will be at least some showery rain, at some point, perhaps heavy, and outside chance of thunder. Still on the warm side and probably a bit humid, around 23’C.

Lower confidence for Thursday, but the more likely general theme is fairly dry in the morning, some sunny spells some cloud – chance of showers increasing as the day goes on. Still warm.

Friday and Saturday look fairly unsettled, either showers or longer spells of rain, potentially heavy/very heavy, an outside chance of thunder. Broadly around 20’C, unless it rains all day.

Sunday perhaps sees less showers, though this is stated with very low confidence.

The more likely outcome for the next week would be further low pressure systems bringing more wind and rain at times.

Perhaps improving for the second week of September, but very low confidence – as is normal for this time of year when hurricane season is in full flow.

So enjoy the rest of the bank holiday weekend. I’m off back on my adventures, starting in Tallin where the weather is going to be…15’C and wet.

Next full forecast will depend on what free time I get during my travels, but hopefully either on Wednesday or Thursday.…

Staying mostly dry for now, but often rather cloudy.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure in control still, centred towards Iceland and also building in from the south-west, though it does mean a north-easterly breeze, which means yet more cloud. And it has taken longer to clear each day than I expected, so far this week.

Today will be mostly cloudy, if anything the cloud will thicken from where we are now, perhaps a spot of drizzle at times. That said, some sunny breaks are possible, more so late in the day. Struggling to reach 20’C in the north-easterly breeze. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 12’C.

Friday again sees plenty of cloud. Some uncertainty over how much, and there is some hope for at least some sunny spells, if not some reasonable spells of sunshine – I think more likely in the morning. A small chance of a light shower. Around 22’C with a bit of sunshine. Fairly cloudy overnight, a spot of light rain possible, down to around 13’C.

Saturday sees high pressure more solidly in control, but there’s lot of cloud still trapped under it. So, most likely a mostly cloudy day, though some sunny breaks possible – more likely early and later in the day. Around 21’C, give or take. Further cloud likely overnight, down to around 13’C.

For Sunday, the cloud should break up more readily, so there will be some reasonable sunny spells, but still a fair amount of cloud floating around. Warmer, around 23’C or so. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

For Bank Holiday Monday, we see high pressure in control, but ex-Hurricane Erin approaching, which looks like she is going to change our weather, although the exact track and patterns not yet sure.

So Monday should be the best day of the extended weekend, good spells of sunshine, some cloud bubbling up, and notably warmer though with some uncertainty, anywhere between 24’C and 28’C more likely. Clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C, give or take.

Tuesday could be quite hot, though weather fronts will be starting to make their way in, so some showery bits of rain possible later in the day. Some uncertainty on this.

Wednesday maybe stays dry or mostly dry, then we should become more showery after this.

Lots of uncertainty from here due to the forecast now relying on the track of ex-hurricane Erin, plus I’ve rushed this forecast a bit as I woke up late!

The more likely outcome for the start of September is that it will be unsettled with showers/rain at times. Oh well…I enjoyed summer, and I hope you did too.…

Some sunshine, some cloud and generally staying very warm.

Thanks to Karen for the photograph.

The general picture sees high pressure in control, centred over Scotland which means an easterly flow which means temperatures not quite as hot as they could be – which also caused all that cloud yesterday, which hung around a lot longer than expected.

What cloud there was has already cleared this morning, and we’ll be left with a mostly sunny day – some cloud is possible at times, though sunshine will dominate. Warm, around 24’C. The cloud spilling back across from the North Sea overnight, no lower than around 16’C.

Monday morning looks cloudy. The sun will break through at some point in the afternoon, maybe early afternoon, arguably more likely by mid/late afternoon, to leave a pleasant end to the day. Temperatures will depend on how quick the sun comes out, somewhere between 21’C and 25’C. Cloud gradually thickening overnight, though somewhat more haphazardly than the previous night, down to around 15’C.

Tuesday starts rather cloudy, though some sunny breaks will be possible. And the day generally continues like this – most likely more cloud than sunshine, though some uncertainty on cloud amounts overall. A very small chance of a shower later in the day. Temperatures reaching somewhere between 22’C and 25’C, depending on how much sunshine we see. Mostly cloudy overnight, a chance of a spot of light rain, down to around 14’C.

By Wednesday high pressure is more centred over Iceland, and we have some kind of north-easterly flow.

Probably mostly cloudy in the morning, the chances of some sunny spells will increase in the afternoon. A bit of a fresher feel, but still reaching close to 22’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 14’C.

Thursday will more likely see a fair amount of cloud again, cloud more likely in the morning, sunny spells more likely in the afternoon – though details by this point become more uncertain, as per usual. Around 21’C or so. Clear spells more likely overnight than cloud, down to around 10’C so cooler than of late.

Friday sees high pressure taking over once more, though a hint of a northerly flow so temperatures again not quite what they could be. So more in the way of sunshine (probably)! and temperatures roughly around 22’C.

Somewhat uncertain for the bank holiday weekend, as there will be a major hurricane (Hurricane Erin) in the Atlantic, off the coast of USA, though at the moment it looks like it will help push high pressure our way, at least for Saturday.

So Saturday probably looks reasonably sunny and very warm – though I wouldn’t want to promise that right now, say 70% confidence.

For Sunday and Monday it is more uncertain, and will depend on how Hurricane Erin interacts with the low pressure to the west of us – some models suggest it subsumes it and hence slows down the progress of low pressure systems towards us – the result being that we import some heat from our south, so becoming hot and sunny.

But it could also split and push the original low pressure, which would mean some rain/showers for Sunday/Monday, but I stress the word “some”. I currently think the former more likely, but low confidence.

Current suggestions are that the remnants of Erin will introduce a more unsettled week to finish August, though this is a long way away – and highly uncertain.

Have a good Sunday, I shall be back on Thursday morning.…

Hot and sunny for the foreseeable.

Sunday’s forecast had a couple of details wrong, though same applied to professional forecasts even on the day for Monday. I guess the influence of ex-tropical storm Dexter confused the models, which is what I mostly rely on.

That said, I did suggest in the summer forecast back in early June that it could be “a summer for the ages”. Probably has been, and there’s more to come.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

The general picture sees high pressure loosely in control with the very hot weather continuing over much of the European continent. The low to our west which had an uncertain direction in the last forecast, is going to drop south towards the Azores, rather than head our way.

We start Thursday with quite a bit of low cloud around, some breaks in the cloud. Gradually it will break up to leave good and increasing spells of sunshine, especially later this afternoon. Quite hot, but not like it has been, reaching around 27’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, a very small chance of some localised mist/fog patches by dawn – but unlikely. Down to around 15’C.

Friday sees long spells of sunshine, with a bit of cloud bubbling up. Hot, reaching around 30’C – I’m so having a beer on my roof in the afternoon. An easterly breeze setting up, and overnight this means a good chance of importing some North Sea cloud – minimum temperatures somewhere between 14’C and 17’C, higher if cloud arrives early.

Saturday likely starts cloudy but the sun will burn through the cloud at some point. Uncertain as to when, more likely during the morning but certainly possible it takes until early afternoon to break through – once it does, long spells of sunshine should follow. Very warm, though how much will depend on how quickly the sun comes out – reaching somewhere between 25’C and 28’C. Probably clear or mostly clear skies overnight, and down to around 13’C.

By Sunday the general overview sees high pressure over the UK, centred over Scotland – the aforementioned low just starting to track towards us once more.

Sunday will be a mostly sunny day with long spells of sunshine – perhaps some cloud at times. Again a bit of uncertainty on temperatures, but roughly between 25’C and 28’C. Cloud probably heading over again overnight from the North Sea, down to roughly 15’C.

Monday likely starts cloudy, but again the sun will burn through at some point, most likely during the morning, to leave long spells of sunshine. Reaching somewhere between 25’C and 27’C so very warm once more. Some cloud possible again overnight.

Some uncertainty for Tuesday but more likely it stays at least fairly sunny and very warm, with temperatures roughly between 25’C and 28’C once more. A chance of a heavy shower.

That’s about as far as I can go with any confidence – forecasting at this time of year is more difficult than many other times of the year, due to the Atlantic hurricane season, and there is quite a whopper of a hurricane expected in Hurricane Erin, which is forecasted to curve out into the Atlantic later next week, so it may well have some kind of impact on our weather, depending on what track it takes.

However there is still a fairly consistent signal for a more northerly flow for the back holiday weekend, which would suggest something more average in terms of temperatures, perhaps even on the cool side, with some showers/rain at some points. Oh well…but it’s still a long way away.

Have a very pleasant weekend ahead…maybe enjoy the sunshine whilst you can!…

Heatwave number 4 incoming, but it won’t be hot and sunny all the time.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure building over the UK, helped on by the remnants of Tropical Storm Dexter to our west, which is slowly trundling our way though also significantly weakening.

Today sees good spells of sunshine, some fair-weather cloud will bubble up at times, particularly during the lunchtime period, but otherwise sunshine is the theme. Very warm, reaching around 26’C, or close to. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Monday sees long spells of sunshine, though probably somewhat hazy at times. Hot, we should just about get to 30’C. Quite a bit of cloud around overnight, a chance of a shower and a very small chance of a rumble of thunder. A warmer and more humid night, probably no lower than 18’C.

Tuesday will see long spells of sunshine, and a little bit of cloud at times. Hot – reaching somewhere between 32’C and 34’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though perhaps some mist/fog patches by dawn in more prone spots. A fairly warm night, down to around 17’C.

Wednesday sees the remnants of Dexter close by, but having very little effect on our weather – it will remain hot and fairly sunny, though some more high/mid-level cloud around, and a very small, say 5-10% chance of a thundery shower developing in the afternoon. Hot, some uncertainty on temperatures but somewhere between 29’C and 34’C – with the bottom half of that range more likely, and probably quite humid too. Highly uncertain overnight, there is a small chance of spectacular thunderstorms developing, or a small-moderate chance of some thundery rain developing – if either happens, then expect a very warm and humid night. Slightly more likely nothing happens and it is dry.

So it gets pretty complex from here – I feel like I have more confidence for the weather the week after, then I do for the rest of the coming week/weekend.

The general picture for Thursday sees a new low to our west, though there is quite a lot of uncertainty as to what it does – will it cross the UK and head towards Scandinavia, or will it sink south to the west of Spain/Portugal? Either way, I have more confidence that the Azores high to the west of it, will build over the UK either for the weekend or into next week.

All that said, Thursday is probably hot and sunny once more. Some cloud probable, a small chance of a shower and less hot than it has been – say around 28’C or so.

The more likely outcome for Friday is a broadly pleasant and very warm/quite hot day with variable amounts of cloud. There is a smaller chance of something cloudier and showery – depending on what the aforementioned low pressure does.

Next weekend is highly uncertain, maybe settled and very warm/quite hot is slightly more likely, but it could very easily be showery instead.

The week after more likely will be very warm or hot, often sunny, often dry – though I wouldn’t rule out the chance of a thundery shower at some point.

I still expect August to balance out as warmer, drier and sunnier than normal, and the summer-like conditions should remain perhaps into September. Not every day, there will be some interruptions, but for many days. Further heatwaves are very possible.

Have a great Sunday.…

As expected, summer is gradually coming back, and it will become hotter at times too.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph.

So the general picture still sees us in a westerly flow, low pressure to the north, high pressure over much of Europe. Considering that this is, on average, when maximum temperatures peak, much of Europe isn’t that hot right now – 33’C in Athens, for example. The European heatwave of June and early July has certainly subsided.

It’s a bright though fairly cloudy start to Thursday, we have a weak weather front slowly crossing today, which will bring generally thicker cloud for the afternoon and maybe a little light rain later in the day. Probably getting to 22’C or just under, becoming breezy too. Cloud thinning overnight, down to around 12’C.

Friday sees a lot of high cloud around making the sunshine hazy, and some fair-weather cloud – though generally the trend will be towards something sunnier as the day goes on. Warm, 25’C is achievable. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Saturday sees good spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud bubbling up, notably during the lunchtime period. Very warm, reaching around 26’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

High pressure remains in control for Sunday, long spells of sunshine, some fair-weather cloud, and very warm – around 26’C, maybe a tad more. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

For the start of next week, we start to pick up more of a continental flow, so it should become hotter.

Some of the details becoming more uncertain for Monday, though broadly speaking a sunny day, though perhaps the sunshine hazier than it has been. A very small, say 5% chance, of a heavy shower developing for late afternoon/evening, and some uncertainty on temperatures. Hotter, for sure, but anywhere in the range of 28’C to 32’C, depending on exact direction of the breeze. A much warmer night than we’ve had for a few weeks, around 18’C.

More likely, it will remain broadly hot and sunny for Tuesday, though not especially high confidence. So good spells of sunshine, and temperatures somewhere between 27’C and 31’C.

That’s as far as I can go with any confidence on details.

There’s a reasonable chance that the hot and sunny-ish weather can hang on a few more days, but likewise we might return to something more westerly like we have now (warm and mixed weather), and a small chance instead of a more thundery low developing. Quite a few options for the second half of next week and into next weekend – maybe we’ll go through all of them!

Generally speaking for the next 2-3 weeks, it should be hotter, sunnier and drier than normal – but there will be some cloudier days in the mix, heavy/thundery showers possible on some days.

Have a very pleasant weekend, I shall be ensuring I get some sunshine at some point – next forecast will be on Sunday morning.…

Another mixed week ahead though drier, warmer and sunnier overall then the last couple of weeks.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

However we start the week with Storm Floris crossing Scotland. Unusually strong winds for August up there.

Down here, it’s a bright start though cloud will thicken pretty quickly, with some bits and pieces of rain around. Mid/late afternoon seeing something a bit more persistent, with 2-3 hours of light to steady rain. Sunshine by early evening. Windy, and we should just about reach 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Tuesday starts sunny. Some cloud will bubble up, perhaps more cloud than sunshine during the lunchtime period, and generally sunnier later in the day. Warm, around 24’C. Mostly clear skies overnight though a cooler night than for some time – down to around 10’C.

Wednesday will be another pleasant day, sunny to start, high cloud is expected to spread across roughly by late morning but it will remain bright with hazy sunshine for the rest of the day. Around 24’C so feeling warm once more. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Thursday sees a weakening weather front cross the UK, so more in the way of cloud at times during the day, and perhaps a shower – but also some sunshine, and probably warmer. More likely reaching around 26’C, though there is a little uncertainty on that aspect. Some high cloud around overnight, down to around 14’C.

By Friday the general picture sees high pressure loosely in control, though the heat will be building over western Europe once more – on average this is around the peak of land temperatures in the northern hemisphere, one week into August.

We still have quite a westerly flow, due to the jetstream being quite strong to our north, so not (yet) tapping into the European heat.

The more likely outcome for Friday is that we see a lot of high/mid-level cloud so a bright day with hazy sunshine, and warm too – around 25’C. However there is some uncertainty over the thickness of cloud, there is a small chance of it being thicker, cooler and perhaps with some drizzle. Likewise a small chance it is thinner, and temperatures are a little hotter.

Not especially high confidence for the weekend, but the more likely option for both Saturday and Sunday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, and broadly warm/very warm – say around 25’C or so.

A small chance instead of something cloudier, cooler and with some drizzle, likewise small (ish) chance of something much hotter, tapping into that European heat.

The more likely outcome for next week is for reasonable amounts of sunshine and temperatures broadly very warm or hot, or perhaps varying somewhat.

Still reasonable confidence on a good chunk of August being very pleasant indeed, with chances of heatwaves growing for the second half of the month, though some short unsettled spells will remain possible.

Have a pleasant week.…