A reasonable week ahead, until the remnants of Hurricane Humberto arrive on Friday or Saturday.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

The general weather pattern sees the Azores high stretching up to control our weather – Atlantic systems kind of spinning around towards Iceland/Greenland – well away from us.

Any early mist/fog patches will lift fairly quickly this morning into sunshine. Gradually it will become hazier from the west but it will remain broadly pleasant all day, some fair-weather cloud around this afternoon too. Around 17’C, maybe 18’C. Some cloud around in the evening at first, clearer skies for the second half of the night. Down to around 8’C – mist/fog patches may form in more sheltered spots by dawn.

Tuesday sees any mist/fog patches quickly lifting to sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, a bit more cloud in general in the afternoon but still plenty of sunny spells. A bit warmer too, getting to around 19’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C, give or take, with some mist/fog patches forming by dawn.

Wednesday sees any mist/fog patches lifting fairly quickly. Likely more cloud around than the last couple of days with a weather front not that far to our north, but broadly speaking fairly bright, some sunny spells and quite a lot of mid-level cloud around. Around 18’C, give or take. Quite cloudy overnight, around 10’C.

Thursday looks a bright day with hazy sunshine, though the cloud will gradually thicken as weather fronts slowly edge their way east. Quite warm in a south-westerly breeze, around 20’C. A band of rain crossing overnight.

Things get more complex then, thanks to what will be ex-Hurricane Humberto heading our way, and also it’s prior interaction with Tropical Storm Imelda (which might also head our way, that’s much more uncertain), so things are now more a guide than a forecast.

Either Friday, Friday night or Saturday will see a spell of heavy rain crossing, perhaps more than one spell and at some point it will become windy, perhaps with gales, due to the remnants of Hurricane Humberto.

Details still to be determined but expect something autumnal.

Maybe Sunday is calmer and a pretty unremarkable day, but I really wouldn’t want to put any money on it.

There’s no point in looking further ahead at the moment, due to the aforementioned tropical systems. Have a pleasant week.…

Back to normality for me following a week in the sunshine, and often dry and settled here – bar one weather front for the weekend.

Thanks to Karen for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure centred towards Scandinavia, but still controlling our weather – Hurricane Gabrielle is heading through the Azores right now, with a connected weather front trundling our way too.

Friday will be a rather overcast day, some bits of sunshine probable later in the day, but mostly cloudy. Around 16’C. Cloud breaking up somewhat overnight, down to around 8’C.

Saturday starts bright with sunny spells, if becoming hazy. A fair amount of cloud will bubble up, a chance of catching a shower or two but unlikely heavy, and still some sunny spells, again tending to be on the hazy side. 17’C, maybe 18’C. Cloud thickening overnight as a weather front slowly pushes across, perhaps a bit of rain towards dawn but the front will be weakening. Around 13’C.

Some uncertainty for Sunday in terms of how quickly the weather front clears. Likely it starts cloudy, perhaps some rain – at some point this clears to sunny spells, more likely it hangs around until the afternoon, but possible it clears in the morning. Reaching around 18’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C. A chance of mist/fog forming towards dawn.

By Monday, what was Hurricane Gabrielle will be bringing some welcome rain to Spain/Portugal, whilst we see the Azores high building, which is always welcome in my eyes.

So it will be broadly settled, any early mist/fog patches will lift to leave sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, some high cloud, some fair-weather cloud – a small chance of a light/moderate shower. Around 18’C or so. Fairly clear skies overnight, though some cloud, around 8’C.

Tuesday looks a reasonable day. Fairly sunny to start, quite a bit of cloud will bubble up, and perhaps more cloud than sun at times in the afternoon but a broadly pleasant day – reaching around 18’C or so.

Similar vibes for Wednesday/Thursday, reasonable amounts of sunshine – especially in the morning and later in the day, with quite a bit of cloud bubbling up – especially through lunchtime and into the afternoon. Around 19’C, give or take.

Friday probably sees a weather front crossing at some point – though too far out to have an understanding of timing yet.

And next weekend potentially looks more unsettled with an ex-hurricane system crossing, bringing some wind and rain – but as you know, these ex-hurricane systems are tricky to predict this far in advance.

General trends for October currently look more likely to see settled conditions for quite a bit of the first half of the month, something more unsettled in the second half.

Time to go unpack my suitcase and put the washing machine on. Enjoy the weekend – next full forecast will either be on Monday or Tuesday morning, I guess.…

Hello from sunny Santorini! Some sunshine back at home too over the coming days, but some notably cooler air also.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So the general picture sees low pressure moving away, and cooler air spreading down from the north – below-average temperatures for the time of year.

So Sunday sees a band of cloud spreading south during the morning, possibly sunny to start depending on timing. Then gradually during the afternoon this cloud breaks up, it will take quite some time but it should be sunny for the evening. Around 16’C and feeling cooler in the breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C. A small chance of some mist/fog patches by dawn.

Monday sees any mist/fog patches clear quickly, most places will start sunny anyway. Good spells of sunshine, some fair-weather cloud, and reaching around 16’C, maybe 17’C. Still quite a notably breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight and a chilly night – down to around 5’C.

Tuesday starts sunny. Quite a lot of cloud will bubble up by late morning, and it will stay fairly cloudy with limited sunny spells for a while, more sunshine to end the day. Around 16’C, maybe 17’C. Quite cloudy overnight, down to around 8’C – give or take.

Wednesday sees plenty of cloud once more, but some sunny spells too – likely more than on Tuesday. Reaching around 17’C, maybe 18’C. Some cloud overnight, down to around 8’C.

By Thursday we see high pressure having drifted away towards Denmark, though it is still in control of our weather.

Sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud (more over lunchtime period probaby) and around 18’C.

Friday most likely remains similar, some sunshine, some cloud – around 19’C or so.

Low confidence for next weekend, it does look like there will be a weather front trying to cross bringing some rain at some point, perhaps more likely Saturday night – but this is all pretty uncertain, there will be ex-Hurricane Gabrielle heading across the Atlantic somewhere, which adds to the uncertainty.

But for now, go on the idea that there will probably be rain at some point next weekend, but dry and bright/sunny at other points, and possible a tad warmer again.

Right, time for me to go do some exploring, and enjoy the sunshine! Enjoy your Sunday too.…

Unusually warm, then notably less warm with some chilly nights – though some pleasant days.

Thanks to Julie for the photograph – yep, I was always going to use a photograph of an animal and weather! Didn’t even look at the others sent to me…ooops.

So the general pattern sees us tap into the heat over Iberia though low pressure is close to the north.

Hence it’s a cloudy but warm-feeling start to the day. There will be a lot of cloud this morning, perhaps a few sunny breaks, perhaps a bit of light rain too. This afternoon the cloud should eventually break up to provide some sunny spells, though it may take well into say mid-afternoon to be reasonably sunny. Warm but also quite windy, reaching around 22’C, assuming we get a some sunny spells. Quite a lot of cloud overnight, though quite a warm night compared to norm, down to around 16’C.

Friday starts quite cloudy but the sun will break through more readily to leave a really pleasant day, long spells of sunshine, some high cloud around so a bit hazy at times and warm, around 24’C or so. Clear skies for a while overnight though more cloud likely in the latter part of the night, and a chance of a shower towards dawn. Down to around 13’C.

Saturday is quite interesting with much cooler air trying to spread south, and the much warmer air trying to hang on – and low pressure starts developing over us. It’s a complicated forecast, but broadly the morning looks on the cloudy side, perhaps some brightness, a chance of some showers. Sunnier skies probable in the afternoon, still a chance of showers. Not the highest confidence ever, so don’t be surprised if this is a little off. Still warm, around 22’C assuming the afternoon sunshine. Overnight sees the low pressure continue to develop and move east – most of the rain to our north, but we’ll get some cloud, some bits of rain at times, and some increasingly strong winds. Around 11’C.

By Sunday we have our little low pressure in control, but moving east, with high pressure to our west – which means a much cooler flow of air.

All powered by a notably meridonal jetstream pattern.

Sunday has some uncertainty on details, but broadly it will be cloudy for most of the day, with some bits and pieces of rain at times – which should always be light/moderate at most. Potential for some sunny spells mixed in, but uncertain. Temperatures roughly around 15’C, give or take. Skies clearing overnight, and a much cooler night – down to around 7’C.

Monday sees good amounts of sunny spells, and some fair weather cloud. Temperatures around 16’C – could be a couple either way, feasibly. A chilly night expected, down to around 5’C – perhaps the first ground frost of the season in more sheltered spots.

Tuesday again should be reasonable, plenty of sunny spells in the morning, probably more cloud in the afternoon. And around 16’C, give or take. Clear skies and a fairly chilly night expected, down to around 6’C.

Wednesday continues broadly pleasant with sunny spells and some level of cloud, perhaps more cloud than sunshine overall. Around 16’C, maybe a tad more.

Thursday sees high pressure getting nudged east by a friendly hurricane (not so friendly if you are in it’s still unknown path), which means it should be a little bit warmer, say 17’C or 18’C and still reasonably amounts of sunshine.

I have little confidence in anything after that, perhaps we can hold onto high pressure into next weekend but I certainly wouldn’t put any money on it.

Next forecast will probably be on Sunday morning, but I’m going to be in Santorini for some September sunshine…so it will be when it will be! Have a pleasant weekend.…

Pretty mixed autumnal weather ahead, some wet days, some dry and sunny days.

Thanks to Marion for the photograph.

The general picture sees low pressure in charge, to our west though it will now have enough momentum to clear through towards Scandinavia over the coming days. And then we’ll await the next system.

Sunday starts bright but cloud will continue to thicken. Patchy light rain from late morning (ish) onwards, becoming more persistent in the afternoon, and heavier – some very heavy bursts of rain possible late afternoon/early evening, an outside chance of thunder too. Windy, reaching around 18’C. The rain clears around mid evening, variable cloud overnight, perhaps a shower – and the winds becoming rather strong. Down to around 12’C.

Monday’s main story is the wind – gusts of 45mph, perhaps 50mph, may cause some distruption in places – there is a Met Office weather warning out. Otherwise it will be a fairly cloudy day with plenty of showers, some heavy, a small chance of thunder. Some bright/sunny spells but not much. Just about reaching 18’C. Showers fading in the evening and overnight, and the wind gradually becoming less strong – down to around 11’C.

Tuesday is a calmer day as the low pressure system moves away – some sunny spells, some cloud, small chances of light/moderate showers though more likely statying dry. Still breezy, especially in the morning, and reaching around 18’C. Cloud will thicken as the afternoon and evening goes on – outbreaks of rain arriving around mid-evening, light at first, but becoming heavy, perhaps very heavy at times overnight. Around 12’C. Becoming windy too.

Wednesday likely starts cloudy, probably still some rain around. Gradually this should move away to leave some sunny spells – though I have fairly low confidence about this. Some warmer air mixed in, if the sun comes out then 21’C possible, if not then around 18’C. Likely windy.

Thursday…well it could be anything I’m afraid, the only aspect I have confidence on is warmth trying to spread up from the south.

Confidence is fairly low for Friday, but the slightly more likely outcome would be for a warm and sunny day.

Very low confidence on details for next weekend, but the broad picture should see low pressure moving across, and pushing any warmth away.

There’s a small chance of a very warm/quite hot day on Saturday, but it will be a few days until we know with more confidence. Heavy showers will at some point move across – be it on Saturday day/night or Sunday at the latest.

Early signals for the week after suggest something drier and more settled for a time.

Have a pleasant Sunday, time for me to go cure my hangover.…

Showers or rain is the theme.

Thanks to Tara – my most regular rain photographer!

So the general picture sees a large area of low pressure in charge, centred to the north-west of Scotland though stretching from Greenland into western Germany.

Thursday starts bright with some sunny spells, a chance of a shower early on but most of them will be near the coast. From around mid/late morning they will develop inland, they will probably be heavy, possibly very heavy with thunder – most places catching a few during the course of the day, but maybe you’ll miss them all. Quite windy, especially in the showers, reaching around 19’C. Variable amounts of cloud overnight, a very small chance of a shower – down to around 10’C.

Friday again starts bright with sunny spells. Quite a lot of cloud will bubble up during the morning with heavy showers breaking out, again possibly very heavy with thunder, again most places catching a few – but a small chance you’ll miss them all. Remaining quite windy and reaching around 18’C. Showers fading in the evening, but further showers probable overnight. Around 11’C.

Saturday remains in the same broad theme, some sunny spells, quite a lot of cloud and plenty of showers around – perhaps slightly less than the two days before. Again quite windy and reaching around 18’C or so, maybe a tad more. Clear spells overnight though cloud starting to build by dawn, down to around 8’C.

Sunday starts bright, but cloud will continue to thicken and rain will arrive at some point. Some uncertainty on the timing, 8am at the very earliest though I’d favour an arrival time in late morning. So a few hours of rain then follow, some heavy bursts possible, some strong winds probable. Once the main band of rain clears, it will remain generally cloudy with some heavy showers at times – and potentially a squall line crossing in the evening, which if it transpires would bring a short period of very heavy rain and squally winds. 18’C despite all the rain, with some warmer upper air mixed into the system. Further showers likely overnight, strong winds probable.

Low pressure is still very much in charge on Monday.

Strong winds probably the main feature – perhaps gale force, and with trees in full leaf this could cause some disruption – one to watch. Otherwise some sunny spells but plenty of showers, likely heavy. Around 17’C – give or take. Variable amounts of cloud overnight, around 11’C.

Tuesday looks a bit of a calmer day, some sunny spells, probably quite a lot of cloud and some scattered showers – though likely more on the light/moderate side if you do catch one. Around 17’C. Cloud thickening overnight, becoming quite windy and rain arriving at some point.

Wednesday probably sees rain in the morning, uncertain in the afternoon – maybe more likely dry but low confidence. Around 18’C.

That’s about as far as I can go with any confidence.

There’s a chance of something warmer and drier for late next weekend and into next weekend, but I certainly wouldn’t make plans that rely on it – it could very easily remain unsettled. Really is a 50/50 call at the moment.

Generally I expect things to remain pretty changeable, the last third of the month does have the potential for some dry and warm days but I’d be surprised if it was any more than a 3-5 day spell.

Further showers and rain seems like it will be the main theme of the next 4-5 weeks, with just shorter dry/warm/sunny spells. Oh well, sun-seekers like myself have had a great run.

Have a pleasant end to the week.…

Good morning from a boiling hot Travelodge in North London, and we are just squeezing out a very warm day outside too – before we gradually return to something more unsettled by midweek.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

So we start with high pressure to our east, low pressure to our west, which is briefly dragging up some warmth.

A sunny start to Sunday, a band of showers will cross later in the morning/around lunchtime – but probably it will fade by time it arrives and your location stays dry, but still a chance of a heavy shower in that period. The afternoon then sees hazy sunshine. Reaching around 25’C or so, though temperatures tailing off a bit in the afternoon, and quite windy too. Reasonably clear skies overnight – I cannot totally rule out a shower, but it should remain dry. Down to around 12’C.

Monday sees good amounts of sunny spells, though some fair-weather cloud will bubble up, and there will be some scattered heavy showers around – say a 40% chance of catching one or two. The warmth will have moved away but we’ll still reach around 21’C, and still breezy. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Tuesday again starts sunny. A fair amount of fair-weather cloud will bubble up, again a chance of some showers, say a 30% chance of catching one or two, but otherwise a pleasant day. Pretty warm, 21’C, maybe 22’C and still breezy. Becoming cloudier overnight, perhaps some showers later. Around 13’C.

By Wednesday we start to see weather fronts pushing across – high pressure over Russia is proving more resistent than I previously expected. Some uncertainty on details, but broadly quite cloudy, some sunshine (probably hazy) and some showers or showery rain at some point, more likely afternoon onwards. Still on the warm side, assuming some sunshine then between 21’C and 23’C. Breezy too. Further showers, possibly heavy/very heavy, possible overnight.

By Thursday we start to see low pressure more in control.

Most likely a day of some sunny spells but lots of heavy/very heavy showers – thunder possible too. Around 19’C, so fresher than it has been, and quite windy.

Friday and Saturday likely quite similar in terms of there being plenty of heavy showers.

Maybe something drier and warmer again the week after.

Have a pleasant Sunday…I’ve run out of energy to write any more!…

Unsettled is the theme but we’ll squeeze out two pleasant days for Friday and Saturday.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph (and apologies to anyone that I haven’t replied to, more messages than normal, less time than normal!).

We start with low pressure in control, though it’s a fairly fluid situation – weather fronts are moving through fairly quickly now.

Thursday starts with an organised band of very heavy showers crossing, though it will likely have pushed through by time I click the publish button. This is followed by sunshine and scattered heavy showers, though in the afternoon they will generally fade and become lighter – this doesn’t totally rule out the chance of a stray heavy shower by late afternoon, but will be pretty unlikely by then. Temperatures nothing special despite plenty of afternoon sunshine, say 18’C or so. Notably breezy too. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

Friday sees a ridge of high pressure building, so there will be good sunny spells, though also a fair amount of fair-weather cloud. A 20% chance of a stray shower, though should be non-heavy if you do catch one. Around 21’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though some high cloud around – down to around 10’C.

Saturday will be a pleasant day. Lots of high cloud around so the sun will generally be hazy, but it will be warm and reach around 22’C, maybe 23’C. High/mid-level cloud overnight, around 15’C.

By Sunday we see the next low pressure system moving in.

Some uncertainty on details so don’t be surprised if this is a little bit off – but probably starting bright, before a band of heavy showers crosses in the morning (showers, so you may miss them). Probably followed by hazy sunshine and feeling warm, around 23’C but give or take, depending on how much sunshine there is. Still a chance of a shower in the afternoon/evening. Most likely dry overnight, though an outside chance of a thundery shower, around 13’C.

Monday sees low pressure edge closer, broadly speaking the weather will be sunny spells and showers – though nothing especially showery/heavy currently expected. Still on the warm side, maybe squeeze 22’C. A band of showers probably pushes east overnight, becoming windy too.

The more likely outcome for Tuesday sees sunny spells and showers once more, rather breezy and still fairly warm, around 21’C.

Most likely it stays unsettled for the rest of the week, and probably into next weekend, probably trending notably cooler. Don’t be surprised if there is some notably heavy rain and strong winds at some point later next week.

Currently I have no expectation for a return to sunshine and warmth. Maybe this is it? Unless there is a hurricane in the western Atlantic to shake up the pattern once more.

I will try to do the autumn forecast in the next couple of days. Enjoy the warm days whilst you can.

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