Finally the weather is changing from incessant cloud…to rain. And then probably notably cooler next weekend.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

So the general set-up sees low pressure to the west trundling it’s way towards us – with the pattern change having been caused by an ex-typhoon off the coast of Japan a week or so ago, and the changes that caused to the jetstream.

Sunday starts cloudy, though some early brightness is possible. The main band of rain will arrive around 10/11am and rain will continue on and off until around mid-evening, sometimes light but some heavy bursts mixed in too. Quite windy and around 15’C. Skies clearing for a time overnight, though the odd heavy shower could push across. Around 12’C.

Monday will see lots of heavy showers, some very heavy, possibly merging into longer spells of rain, perhaps hail and/or thunder mixed in too. Definitely not boring. A few glimpses of sunshine but generally rather cloudy. Around 14’C and fairly gusty winds in the heavy showers. Mostly cloudy overnight, the showers will fade in the evening though the odd showery bit of rain will remain possible. Down to around 11’C.

Tuesday will be a more mixed day, quite a bit of cloud around – especially in the morning, but some sunny spells too. A few showers scattered around, possibly heavy, but possible your area misses what does develop. Around 15’C and breezy. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Wednesday will start bright and sunny. Gradually it will cloud over as the next low pressure system heads our way, though there is currently quite a lot of uncertainty on timing – rain could feasibly arrive as early as midday, or not until mid/late evening. Strong winds may develop – but again, this is uncertain and depends on how the low develops. Around 14’C.

Low pressure very much still in charge on Thursday.

Further spells of heavy rain or some heavy showers will be likely, though details uncertain and will remain so until the development of the low is sorted out. Probably cooler – around 12’C, with the chance of strong winds.

The more likely outcome for Friday would see sunny spells, variable cloud, scattered showers – and windy too. Around 12’C. Time to find my autumn clothes, I guess.

The more likely outcome for next weekend sees a flow either from the north or north-west, showers possible though less likely, sunshine probable at times, though no guarantee – sunshine more likely if we go northerly, less likely if it is north-westerly. And probably cooler too – around 10’C by day (give or take), and chilly by night.

Generally changeable conditions probably persist through the next week or two after that with a variety of autumnal weather conditions – probably drier in the second half of November, but don’t be surprised if we end up back with day after day of cloud by then.

Autumn is definitely stepping up a gear…and I don’t even have any holidays booked to escape it.…

A few more gloomy days to come, but all change from Sunday as rain arrives.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

The general picture sees high pressure remain in control, with low pressure in the Atlantic slowly creeping our way. The really interesting weather has been on the opposite side of the globe, where an ex-typhoon has strengthened the jetstream near Alaska with all the tropical energy, which a week later (this Sunday) will feel its effects on the UK as the jetstream then brings rain to us.

There’s a really interesting Met Office deep dive in YouTube from yesterday if you want to know more.

So onto today and generally it will be cloudy, though there is more scope for some sunny spells than there has been, more likely this morning and again late in the day, but assume lots of cloud otherwise. The odd bit of drizzle possible at times. Around 15’C. Mostly cloudy overnight though a few clear spells possible, down to around 9’C.

Friday likely starts cloudy and possibly misty – or even foggy if you had some clear spells overnight. Generally cloudy though it could break up at times in the morning to bring some bright/sunny spells. The odd bit of drizzle possible at times. Around 15’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 9’C.

Saturday morning will see some cloud but also some hazy sunshine. Cloud will gradually thicken during the day as low pressure approaches. Around 15’C. Cloudy overnight with patchy rain arriving before dawn, becoming breezy too. Down to around 12’C.

Sunday sees outbreaks of rain crossing during the morning, some heavy bursts, likely continuing into early afternoon though some uncertainty on exact timings right now. Once it clears, some cloud still, though some sunny breaks and the odd shower possible. Around 15’C or so, quite windy for a time during the rain. Clear spells overnight though a shower or two will be possible, around 11’C.

By Monday, low pressure is centred over Ireland.

Monday will be a day of limited sunny spells and lots of heavy showers, perhaps merging into longer spells of rain at times. At least it won’t be boring. Quite windy with temperatures around 15’C again. Showers fading overnight, down to around 10’C.

Low pressure clearing away on Tuesday, so a mixture of sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and a few showers around – though much less than on Monday, and perhaps you’ll miss them all. Around 15’C and still breezy.

Wednesday is uncertain – a further spell of rain will be heading our way, but maybe it actually tracks to the south and we stay mostly dry, or maybe we have a wet day.

Details uncertain after that (well…uncertain after Tuesday) but broadly speaking low pressure will remain in charge with spells of rain or showers at times, and often breezy/quite windy. Temperatures roughly around 14’C.

Some hints of a short cooler spell either next weekend or early the week after, though low confidence on that aspect.

Probably remaining changeable for a while, though fairly strong signals (considering how far away it is) of high pressure building by mid-November.

Enjoy the end of the week and the weekend. Bring on the rain?!…

Boring weather. Unless you enjoy cloud.

Thanks to Philippa for the photograph.

So we start the forecast period with high pressure centred over the UK (would be hot if it were summer!) and it isn’t going anywhere fast.

Sunday starts with mist/fog or low cloud. It should break up into sunny spells, but likely taking a while. Once it does there will be good sunny spells for most of the day, perhaps cloudy by dusk. Around 16’C. Cloud spreading across from the east in the evening and overnight, perhaps a bit of light rain/drizzle at times, and around 13’C.

Monday will be mostly cloudy, the odd spot of light rain/drizzle at times, a few glimpses of sunshine at times. Around 17’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, again the odd spot of drizzle at times, around 13’C.

Tuesday looks cloudy with bits of light rain/drizzle at times. Perhaps a bit more in the way of bright/sunny spells by the end of the day. Around 16’C. Fairly cloudy overnight though a few clear spells, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy though probably a bit of sunshine at times. Light showers possible. Around 15’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, though some clear spells – down to 9’C or so.

Thursday should again be rather cloudy though a bit more in the way of sunny spells (also less confidence on details overall). Around 15’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, some clear spells, down to around 9’C or so./

Hints of change by Friday in the models as high pressure starts to drift north-westwards, though not really much change on the ground yet.

More likely Friday remains on the cloudier side of the spectrum, though with some sunny spells – and around 15’C.

Saturday probably still something similar, something broadly on the cloudier side of the spectrum, though lower confidence – and roughly around 15’C.

Sunday might see low pressure break through, or at least squeeze under the high pressure, which would bring a spell of rain if it does. However, pretty low confidence right now – we could still get something cooler from the north instead (though sunnier), or maybe the cloudy high hangs on a little more.

Probably it becomes unsettled before the end of the month, more likely than not by the middle of the week after next (circa 23rd October) but how we get there remains in question.

Have a good Sunday.…

Mostly dry, sometimes cloudy, sometimes sunny.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure take over again, and it will settle broadly over the UK for around a week. Maybe longer, but we’ll see on that.

Thursday starts sunny, if hazy at times with some high cloud. From around lunchtime, cloud will start to spread down from the north-west, and a broadly cloudy afternoon will follow, some occasional sunny spells. Around 16’C or so. Mostly cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of drizzle, and around 13’C.

Friday starts cloudy, or mostly so, with the odd patch of drizzle being possible. During the afternoon clearer skies will attempt to push down from the north-west, but it will be erratic, perhaps sunnier skies arrive during daylight hours, perhaps not. Around 17’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though some cloud around and a chance of mist/fog patches by dawn. Down to roughly 8’C, but could easily be a couple of degrees either side.

Saturday sees any early mist/fog patches lift to decent spells of sunshine, if probably hazy sunshine. Some cloud likely to bubble up during the lunchtime period, but still with sunny spells and more sunshine likely later in the day. Around 17’C, maybe 18’C so pretty pleasant for the time of year. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though mist/fog forming quite widely towards dawn. Down to around 6’C, but again could easily be a couple of degrees either side.

Sunday probably starts foggy, but this may not be true everywhere. Fog patches probably taking a little while to clear, but broadly a mixture of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud for the rest of the day. Around 17’C or so. Clear skies at first overnight, but mist/fog or low cloud likely to spread across some time before dawn. Down to around 9’C, again pretty give and take on that.

By Monday high pressure remains in control, bang over the UK.

With an easterly breeze probably more in the way of cloud, so assume a cloudy or mostly cloudy day – occasional drizzle/light rain possible. Roughly around 16’C. Probably cloudy overnight and around 12’C.

Tuesday onwards (yeah I’m tired from my travels) will remain dry, or mostly dry – light rain/drizzle possible at times. Generally on the cloudier side of the spectrum, more likely anyway, and roughly around 16’C, though could easily be a couple either way.

Perhaps a change by next weekend, with low pressure systems trying to push in from the west, though this could lead to something warmer (20’C or so) if they struggle to get across, and I suspect this high pressure block is going to be difficult to budge.

Still possible instead that the high pressure system heads north-west and we get a cooler flow, though this seems less likely than it once did.

Next forecast will be on Sunday morning, all being well.…

Hello from hot and sunny Portugal…though it isn’t too bad at home with high pressure about to take control once more.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So Sunday sees Storm Amy move away with high pressure building in from the south-west.

Bright/sunny spells to start Sunday but quite a lot of cloud will bubble up with fairly limited sunshine from around lunchtime onwards. A 30% chance of catching a shower but they shouldn’t be heavy if you do catch one. Windy and around 16’C. Cloud thinning somewhat overnight, winds easing, down to around 9’C.

Monday will often be sunny, though there will be some areas of cloud floating around, more likely in the afternoon. Temperatures very reasonable for October, around 19’C. Quite cloudy overnight, around 11’C.

Tuesdsay looks mostly cloudy, though with some occasional bright/sunny spells, more likely later in the day. Around 17’C or so and a bit breezy. Mostly cloudy overnight, though some clear spells possible, down to around 10’C.

Wednesdsay sees a weak weather front crossing, quite a lot of cloud, some occasional light rain/drizzle. Some occasional sunny spells possible, more likely early/late in the day. Around 16’C. Clear skies overnight and cooler, down to around 6’C.

By Thursday we see high pressure centred to our west again, though it will move across the UK over the coming days.

Thursday starts sunny, probably more cloud in the afternoon, perhaps outright cloudy. Reaching around 16’C or so, maybe a tad more. Fairly cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of drizzle, around 11’C.

Then for Friday, Saturday and probably Sunday too, it remains dry but uncertain on cloud amounts. More likely on the cloudy side of the spectrum, with some limited sunny spells – but too far away to be too confident on such details. Overnight fog possible. Temperatures broadly around 14’C to 17’C.

Still suggestions of something cooler for the week after, though drier conditions more likelty than wet. Perhaps more changeable towards the latter part of October.

Have a pleasant week, the next forecast will probably be on Thursday morning.…

Some wet and windy weather coming up, with Storm Amy arriving later tomorrow – though nothing too unusual for us down here, and not too bad otherwise.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

A calm picture right now with high pressure in control, and Storm Amy yet to develop – but it will undergo what is known as rapid cyclogenesis as it quickly turns into a storm – and I believe is the remnants of Hurricane Humberto in the first place.

Today is a reasonable day, lots of high/mid-level cloud around but generally bright with some hazy sunshine at times. Around 19’C in a south-westerly breeze. Cloud thickening overnight with rain arriving around or slightly after midnight, clearing before or around dawn. Down to around 13’C and quite windy.

Friday is a cloudy day, perhaps some bits and pieces of rain around at first. Dry but cloudy for a time before further outbreaks of rain arrive in the afternoon. Breezy and around 17’C, maybe 18’C. Winds becoming strong overnight, with further rain at times – perhaps briefly heavy/very heavy, but not always raining. A quite warm night at first but eventually getting down to around 12’C.

Saturday starts cloudy with some bits of rain still to clear, but it will clear fairly quickly to sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud and one or two scattered showers. The main story will be the wind, still strong and gusty, and cooler too – around 15’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, winds fading, down to around 8’C.

Sunday starts sunny. Gradually during the day it will become cloudier, perhaps a light shower but more likely dry. Around 15’C and becoming quite windy again later in the day. Fairly cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of light rain/drizzle at times – around 11’C.

By Monday we have high pressure trying to build from the south, though a pretty strong jetstream to our north, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda to the west – which will increase uncertainty.

It should be a reasonably sunny day, some cloud around and notably warm for the time of year – 20’C should be reached, though breezy – perhaps outright windy. Around 13’C overnight.

Tuesday is probably similar, though lower confidence now. Spells of sunshine, at least some cloud and temperatures around 19’C or so.

Much lower confidence for Wednesday – it depends if Imelda gets picked up by the jetstream or not, if it does then some windy and rain will cross – but otherwise it will stay dry though less warm.

Fairly low confidence on details for late next week and into next weekend. The more likely outcome would be for high pressure to be close to our west, but exact positioning uncertain. So the worst outcome would be generally cloudy, maybe some occasional rain, around 16’C. The best outcome often sunny, some cloud at times – around 18’C.

There are some hints of something cooler spreading down from the north either later next weekend or early next week, but this is a long, long way away.

Next forecast will hopefully be on Sunday morning but I’m going for one last taste of Mediterranean sunshine for the year, so maybe you’ll have to wait until I get back next week.

Have a good end to the week/weekend.…