Some downpours expected today, and staying mixed afterwards – which does include some sunnier days, but also the potential for an autumnal storm next week.

Thanks to Peter for the photograph.

Gosh is it the last day of July already? So the general picture is little changed from the last week or so, we still have high pressure quite close to our south-west which is feeding this rather cloudy Atlantic air over the top.

Today will be a rather cloudy day with some heavy showers at times, potentially merging into longer spells of rain – some probably very heavy, some thunder possible too. Probably drier later in the day, and brighter too. Around 20’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Friday sees a lot of cloud, especially in the morning and a few showers breaking out – more likely on the light/moderate side but could still be heavy. A bit more in the way of sunshine for the afternoon, though the shower chance remains – and the potential for more potent downpours, perhaps thundery, for late afternoon/early evening, say a 40% chance of catching one. Temperatures nothing amazing for the start of August, around 21’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Saturday will be a pleasant day with a mixture of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, overall probably more cloud than sun. A small chance of a light/moderate shower. Around 23’C. Clear skies to start the night, clouding over later – down to around 14’C.

Sunday will be a cloudy day with a weather front crossing. A lot of uncertainty on how much rain will fall, it could just be a damp squib, or it could be a fair few hours of heavy/very heavy rain, perhaps even thundery. I feel the latter is more likely, but check forecasts nearer the time if you have plans. Quite warm and humid, around 22’C – and quite windy later. Skies probably clearing for a time overnight, though clouding over later – down to around 14’C.

For Monday, probably we see a more autumnal kind of system crossing the UK, with some tropical origination.

For us in the south, it looks a mostly cloudy day with unusually strong winds for August – potentially gusting 40-50mph which could be enough for some tree branches to come down, so a chance of some disruption. And some heavy rain at times. A warm feel is probable, somewhere between 21’C and 25’C more likely.

Gusts of 40-50mph is the more likely outcome, but it’s possible it could track further south and be more of an issue for us. At the moment, gusts of 60-70mph are very possible for northern England and southern Scotland – so do keep an eye out if you have plans for Monday.

Tuesday should be fair (ish), some sunshine, some cloud – a chance of a shower.

That’s about as far as I can go with any reasonable confidence. I remain a bit concerned about Monday’s system, as it does feel like the kind of “event” that can change longer-term weather patterns, and hence makes me less confident of a return to the hotter, sunnier conditions that I was expecting after the beginning of August.

That said, there could easily be a short heatwave as a consequence of Monday’s storm, arriving for late next week – the more likely outcome, but with low levels of confidence.

Until there is evidence in the models otherwise, I shall stick with my expectation of the dry, sunny and very warm/hot weather to return for weeks 2/3 of August, but now with notably lower confidence.

Have a pleasant weekend ahead, next full forecast will be Monday morning, maybe I will do a short update before, but I tend not to have much time nowadays.…

Often cloudy is the vibe for this forecast. Generally warm, some sun, some showers too.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph (even if it is on the border of Berkshire…I don’t get enough photographs to be that choosy!).

Not much change in the general pattern, high pressure dominates to our south-west, which means we have a westerly/north-westerly flow – the latter does tend to bring a lot of cloud, which it has done and will do.

So Sunday will be rather cloudy. Some sunny breaks at times, but cloud is the main vibe, if also quite bright. A 30% chance of a heavy shower later in the day – if showers develop they will be very scattered. Around 21’C in a north-westerly breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Monday will see a fair amount of cloud but a bit more in the way of sunny spells than on Sunday. Some showers bubbling up too, around a 40% chance of catching one or two during the day. Warmer, around 24’C but also quite breezy. Clear skies for a time overnight, cloud thickening later – down to around 15’C.

Tuesday starts rather cloudy, with a weather front crossing. Some uncertainty on rain amounts – it will be rather showery in nature and a fairly small feature, so it could just be dribs and drabs, though I think more likely there will be at least some heavy showers mixed in. A chance of some sunshine in the afternoon, but the shower risk will remain. More likely around 22’C or so, but if sunshine amounts surprise then up to 25’C is plausible. Showers still possible in the evening/overnight though gradually becoming more scattered, and generally it will be rather cloudy. Around 16’C.

Plenty of cloud again for Wednesday, some sunny spells and a 30% chance of a shower or two. Around 23’C in a light north-westerly (ish) breeze. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight – down to around 15’C.

Not much change in the set-up for Thursday, if anything high pressure will have retreated west somewhat.

Plenty of cloud likely once more, some sunny spells and probably some showers, say a 60% ish chance of a couple of heavy showers later in the day, or evening – potentially very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Around 23’C or so.

Friday sees more of a northerly flow and probably more influence from low pressure to our east – so again plenty of cloud, some sunny spells and a greater chance of showers, say a 70% chance of at least a couple of heavy showers, potentially very heavy/torrential and thundery. Temperatures around 22’C.

Next weekend is fairly uncertain – the somewhat more likely outcome sees further showers, a general continuation of the week before.

But perhaps high pressure will instead build across the UK – this is what I expect to happen at some point after the beginning of August, but in time for next weekend is a bit of a stretch. However, tropical storm developments are hinted at off the coast of the USA, which could be enough to nudge high pressure more towards us.

Generally I expect mid/late August to see more in the way of sunshine and warmth – we should return to something like summer.

And maybe this continues into autumn too. Weak signals, but signals nonetheless of high pressure dominating early autumn.

Have a good Sunday.…

Becoming warmer again, with a mixture of cloud, sunshine and some heavy showers on some days.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

The general set-up sees high pressure ridging to our west, with a more north-westerly flow, which tends to be a cloudier set-up most of the time as remnants of weather systems and general Atlantic-based cloud head here.

Thursday likely starts cloudy, if not it will quickly become cloudy. Some bits and pieces of mostly light rain will spread down from the north, though the odd heavy shower could be mixed in. Around 20’C though a tad cooler in the afternoon. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 15’C.

Friday starts mostly sunny, some cloud will bubble up during the morning, probably quite a bit of fair-weather cloud during the lunchtime period (cannot totally rule out a shower), then sunnier later. Very warm, reaching around 27’C. Mostly clear skies overnight though tending to be more cloud by dawn, around 16’C.

Saturday sees a band of cloud crossing in the morning, perhaps a shower, though some hazy sunshine also possible at times. The afternoon generally looks sunnier, still some cloud at times and a 20% chance of catching a heavy shower (perhaps very heavy/thundery). Warm, reaching around 25’C or so. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday looks somewhat sunnier, with more sunshine than cloud likely, though still some cloud around at times – and a 25% chance of catching a heavy, thundery downpour in the afternoon/early evening. Warm, around 24’C or so. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Not much has changed by Monday synoptically, the Azores high still quite close to our south-west, but not quite close enough for it to be sunny and dry all day – and still a north-westerly flow.

Monday generally looks somewhat on the cloudier side of the spectrum though still some sunny spells, especially early and late in the day. Small chances of a shower. Around 24’C or so.

Lower confidence on day-to-day details by Tuesday but more likely something on the cloudier side of the spectrum, perhaps a bit of light rain at times.

Perhaps sunnier and quite hot for Wednesday/Thursday though fairly low confidence.

Uncertain for next weekend.

Generally the trend should be for high pressure to extend across much of the UK, though it may take until after next weekend to become established fully.

Confidence is increasing in August being drier, warmer and sunnier than normal – potentially hot at times, though I think the extreme heat which was close at times in June/early July, will be less likely than it has been.

Have a pleasant weekend, next forecast should be Sunday morning.…

A showery few days, with some potent downpours possible – but trending drier as the week goes on.

Thanks to Peter for the photograph.

The general overview sees a fairly potent low pressure in charge, which will move north-east across the UK over the next couple of days, before splitting into two weaker areas of low pressure.

A mostly cloudy start to Sunday with bits of showery rain. Fairly quickly some heavy/very heavy showers will break out, most places seeing a couple but perhaps you miss them all. Sunnier for the afternoon, still some scattered heavy showers at first, perhaps thundery, but those becoming fewer as the day goes on. A fresher feel though still warm at around 23’C, and quite breezy. Clearer skies in the evening, then cloudier overnight with some showers possible after midnight. Around 15’C.

Monday sees low pressure pretty much on top of us and it is pretty much a perfect recipe for downpours. Sunshine limited though some at times, plenty of cloud and plenty of showers. Some uncertainty over exact details, we will need a little sunshine to develop any really potent downpours – there’s a good chance of some torrential and thundery downpours developing, hail possible too, especially in the afternoon/early evening – there is a Met Office weather warning out, a slightly more agreeable one than the amber warning for Saturday gone. However there is a chance instead of more general cloud and showery rain, which would stop any real torrential downpours developing, or at least reduce the chances. Around 22’C and breezy, perhaps gusty in any downpours. Showers fading in the evening with variable amounts of cloud overnight, down to around 15’C.

Tuesday likely sees quite a lot of cloud, but some sunshine at times – probably more so in the early part of the morning. Some showers possible, but far fewer than Monday and generally less likely to be heavy if you do catch one or two. Warm, around 23’C or so in a north-westerly (ish) breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, a shower possible, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday is back to some sunny spells but plenty of heavy showers. Some uncertainty on the distribution, there is maybe a 20% chance that we avoid them all, but 80% likely we’ll see at least a few heavy/very heavy showers, thunder possible. Reaching around 23’C so warm in the sunny spells. Showers fading in the evening, fairly clear skies overnight and down to around 13’C.

By Thursday we see our friend, the Azores high, moving in once more.

Still quite a lot of cloud likely, especially through the middle portion of the day and overall more cloud than sunshine. But still, some sunny spells and only a moderate chance of an afternoon shower, say around a 40% chance. Warm, around 23’C or so. Fairly clear skies overnight, and down to around 13’C.

Friday looks a dry day, uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts though I’d favour something on the sunnier side of the spectrum being more likely. Warmer too, around 25’C.

Reasonable confidence for Saturday being fairly sunny and very warm, say around 25’C.

Lower confidence for next Sunday, somewhat more likely is it being fairly sunny and very warm, say around 27’C – but a return to something more showery is very possible instead.

Perhaps slightly lower temperatures and something a bit mixed to start the week after, though likely trending drier and warmer after that.

Still pretty low confidence for August as a whole, but I’m still think overall a drier, sunnier and warmer than normal month is the more likely outcome, with notably hot conditions much less likely than they have been. Perhaps hottest in the latter third of the month.

Have a pleasant Sunday!…

A proper mixture of weather ahead, some heat, some downpours, some cloudy spells and some sunny spells.

Thanks to Karen for the photograph.

So the general picture to start the forecast period sees high pressure to the south, and also far to our north, above Scandinavia – with low pressure about to be squeezed through the middle, which is where we are. Summer is only on pause, and even then there’s some hot and sunny weather to be found.

Thursday starts mostly cloudy thanks to a decaying weather front, some bits of light rain or drizzle possible. It should brighten up at least somewhat from roughly lunchtime onwards, some sunny spells, if perhaps hazy, though always a fair amount of cloud around. A small chance of an afternoon shower, say a 20% chance. Very warm and humid, a bit of uncertainty on the maximum temperature but somewhere around 26’C seems about right. A cloudy and fairly warm night overnight, down to around 17’C.

Friday will be a fairly hot and humid day. Some cloud around at times but also some reasonable sunny spells breaking through. There is maybe a 15% chance of a stray downpour developing in the afternoon. Reaching around 30’C, and humid too. At some point in the evening, more likely later on, heavy and possibly thundery showers, or more likely showery heavy rain will spread up from France. The rain potentially very heavy at times. A pretty warm and humid night, eventually down to around 18’C.

Saturday probably starts with this heavy, showery rain, perhaps with a rumble of thunder. This should clear, I guess late morning but this is uncertain, to be follower by some sunny spells but also some heavy, possibly thundery downpours. Showers tending to fade by mid-late afternoon. Again on the humid side, and very warm – temperatures will depend on how much sunshine you get, but say 23’C to 27’C is the range. Dry at first overnight, some showery rain spreading up in the second half of the night. Down to around 16’C.

By Sunday we have low pressure firmly in charge, centred to the south-west of Ireland.

Sunday likely starts cloudy with showery rain. This should clear to sunny spells and scattered heavy/very heavy showers for the rest of the morning, maybe part of the afternoon – generally sunnier and drier later in the day…probably. Very warm, reaching around 25’C. Further showers possible in the evening, showers or showery rain likely overnight. Down to around 16’C.

Monday sees low pressure crossing England. Some sunny spells but plenty of heavy/very heavy showers, perhaps torrential, perhaps thundery. Maybe you miss them all, but more likely you’ll see quite a few during the course of the day. Still on the warm side, somewhere around 23’C but very give and take. Showers mostly fading overnight, down to around 14’C.

For Tuesday we see low pressure pull away to the north-east, so fewer showers around and those that are shouldn’t be heavy. Some sunny spells and roughly around 23’C.

That’s about as far as I can go with reasonable confidence on details. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the low pressure spawn a secondary low for Tuesday night/Wednesday with some heavy rain – but I wouldn’t expect it yet either.

Broadly speaking Wednesday and Thursday are more likely fairly mixed days, though somewhere on the drier end of the spectrum is more likely, especially Thursday. Pretty unremarkable temperatures for July.

Friday and into next weekend perhaps the Azores high is trying to build once more, again not especially high confidence but that should see the warmth return, with some mixture of sunshine and cloud if it does – don’t be surprised if there is some weak weather front at some point too.

I don’t see a quick return to hot sunny days, but neither do I see weeks of unsettled weather ahead either. A general mish-mash of summer-ish weather probably takes us into early August – temperatures broadly around average with the odd short hot spell possible, variable amounts of cloud and sunshine, a few weak weather fronts bringing bits of rain on some days – nothing special but nothing dreadful.

After early August, it seems that there is a reasonable chance of high pressure having more influence with sunshine amounts increasing, and temperature back into the hot range more often.

Have a pleasant weekend ahead…maybe time to find the umbrella.

…

A more mixed week ahead, but staying mostly very warm/quite hot. It’s a forecast that quickly becomes uncertain too.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure further north-east over Scandinavia, a low pressure to our east trying to head west (hence the less hot air today) and low pressure systems trying to move east too. A little complex.

Sunday will be a mixture of cloudy spells and sunny spells – cloud more likely in the morning. Generally speaking, it will become sunnier as the afternoon goes on. Assuming a reasonable amount of sunshine, it will once again be hot – say around 29’C, though a little uncertainty on that. Overnight sees some high cloud spread in from the south-west, a stray shower not impossible and a fairly warm night – no lower than around 17’C.

Monday sees the flow become more westerly. Sunny spells with variable amounts of cloud, likely more cloud through the lunchtime period and perhaps a shower or two. More sunshine again expected later in the day. Still very warm, reaching around 26’C – though feeling a tad fresher in the afternoon, and becoming quite windy. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday starts sunny, with a small chance of an early shower. Cloud will thicken, probably we see a spell of rain or some showers arriving any time from late morning onwards. There is quite a bit of uncertainty, more likely I think we will see some heavy rain or heavy showers (an outside chance of a rumble of thunder), but possible we see very little rain and mostly just cloud. Around 22’C and quite windy. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday probably will be reasonably fair, with variable amounts of cloud and some very warm sunshine at times – reaching around 25’C. I say probably, as an area of rain won’t be too far to our south, and something cloudier or even damp is possible instead, if still only a fairly small chance.

And that is as far as I can go with any confidence. Just 4 days and only 2 of them I’m only semi-confident on.

Generally the pattern looks mixed, with some showers or rain on some days, and some sunshine on other days. Showery or dry/sunny days will still be very warm, if not quite hot – generally between 25’C and 30’C.

But which days will be the more showery ones?

With very low confidence, Thursday and Friday arguably more likely to be dry or fairly dry, with some sunshine. Saturday and Sunday more likely to see some heavy showers, or perhaps rain, but still likely very warm (possibly hot).

I don’t think this is a “summer is over” declaration, but certainly it feels like a pattern change.

In general, I think we continue with the very warm theme for the next couple of weeks, but there will be showery days mixed in with sunnier days. Still there will be a chance of short heatwaves (though lower chances than of late) – I would not rule out something extreme either, though the trend does seem to be for the extreme heat of western Europe to become more south-eastern Europe.

Early suggestions are that high pressure may build again after the beginning of August, but that’s a long way away.

Enjoy your Sunday!…

Heatwave number 3 is here. More uncertain after the weekend though.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

The general synoptic overview sees the Azores high well in control, stretching all the way up to Scandinavia. The intense heat over western Europe has abated too.

So today (Thursday) sees long spells of hot sunshine, and just a little bit of cloud. Reaching around 30’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and a fairly warm night, no lower than 17’C.

Friday will again see long spells of hot sunshine, and just a little bit of cloud. Temperatures up a notch to around 31’C, maybe 32’C at a push. Clear skies overnight and a fairly warm night, probably no lower than 18’C.

Saturday sees long spells of hot sunshine, and just a little bit of cloud. Again around 31’C. A slightly more comfortable night, again mostly clear skies and down to around 16’C.

Things start to get a bit uncertain on Sunday – broadly speaking it will stay hot, though there is a chance of some cloud moving in from the North Sea early on Sunday, to bring a spell of cloudy skies – whether it reaches here and if so how long it lasts is uncertain. Sunshine is more likely than cloud overall though, and temperatures more likely towards 29’C – though a cloudier spell would reduce that. Probably some cloud and perhaps a shower overnight, down to around 16’C…ish.

By Monday we start to see low pressure try to move in.

However, it is very uncertain as to whether it will cross the country – some models have it spinning back into the Atlantic towards an area of low pressure further to the west.

So a vague forecast for Monday, probably still hot, say 26’C to 29’C more likely, probably at least some sunny spells – a chance of a band of heavy showers crossing at some point.

From Tuesday onwards it could be anything really. I’d say there is probably around a 30% chance that high pressure builds in once more and we end up back in heatwave territory by the end of the week.

But more likely, say 70% chance, is some mixture of conditions, with some showery rain/showers on some days, very warm (maybe hot) sunny spells on other days.

I do stress the uncertainty for next week, there are a lot of conflicting signals, and model outputs.…

Some showers around today and tonight, but then we’ll gradually move back into heatwave territory next week.

Thanks to Fay for the photograph.

The general synoptic overview right now sees low pressure close by to the north-east, though it is pulling away and the Azores high will take control once more in the coming days.

Today starts with a mostly cloudy morning. A band of showers will cross around lunchtime, probably we’ll see some rain falling at some point, potentially heavy, a chance of thunder too – though it will be showery and the focus is further east than here, so maybe it will stay dry. A bit more sunshine around this afternoon, but plenty of cloud and still a chance of a shower or two. Reaching around 21’C and often breezy. Mostly cloudy overnight, a spell of rain moving down from the north, arriving in the early hours. Down to around 12’C.

Monday starts cloudy with some rain – some uncertainty as to when it clears, but somewhere between 6am and 9am most likely. Once that clears then it will be a case of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, likely more cloud than sunshine through the lunchtime period. A chance of a shower in the afternoon, though if you catch one it should be pretty innocuous. Around 21’C in a northerly breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Tuesday is back to being warm and sunny. Some cloud likely bubbling up, particularly through the lunchtime period, but broadly pleasant and sunny. Warm, around 24’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Wednesday starts sunny. Some cloud probably bubbling up – a chance of a longer spell of cloud during the day, though hard to be sure at this stage. But broadly speaking, sunshine and variable amounts of cloud. Very warm, around 26’C – perhaps a little more, depending on cloud amounts. Clear skies overnight, around 14’C.

By Thursday the Azores high is very much in control.

Long spells of sunshine and hot once more, around 29’C – give or take. Clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

Friday sees long spells of sunshine. Hot, 30’C to 31’C more likely, though perhaps a little either side. A warmer night, probably no lower than say 17’C.

Both Saturday and Sunday will be hot and sunny, temperatures more likely between 30’C and 32’C – though something a little either side possible instead. Warm nights.

The heat possibly lasting into the start of the week after, though the chance of thundery downpours will increase.

I’m still expecting the rest of July to be often hot and sunny, though some occasional temperature resets with some showers will be probable.

Early suggestions of something more changeable for the end of July and/or beginning of August, but still pretty weak signals.

Enjoy your Sunday!…

Well the heatwave has done one (for now), replaced with some sunny days, and some meh days. I hope your house/flat has returned to a normal temperature too!

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

We start the forecast period under a ridge of high pressure from the Azores, though the positioning of the Azores high is going to move west over the coming days, allowing something cooler, cloudier with the odd bit of rain to move down from the north-west.

Thursday itself sees sunshine during the morning, cloud bubbling up from around lunchtime – likely more cloud than sun for a while, then sunnier later in the day. Warm, 23’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Friday will be sunny for much of the day, though some high cloud around so hazy at times, particularly later in the day. Quite hot, up to around 27’C. Cloud thickening overnight, maybe the odd splash of rain later on, down to around 16’C and breezy.

Saturday is a mostly cloudy day. Some bits and pieces of light rain possible, though don’t be surprised if it stays dry. Likewise some sunny spells possible later in the day, but it’s a possibility rather than a probability. Assuming it stays cloudy, then 21’C – though if we get some sunshine in the afternoon then a few degrees more is possible. Breezy. A small chance of a spell of rain in the evening, but more likely it stays to our south. Fairly cloudy overnight, one or two showers possible.

Sunday again sees a lot of cloud, some showery bits of rain possible in the morning though amounts likely limited. Some brightness possible, again more likely later in the day and breezy, around 21’C. Often cloudy overnight, the odd shower around, 13’C.

Low pressure continues to slowly move away east on Monday, though likely a lot of cloud still around, one or two showers possible – more likely in the morning. Some brightness, more likely later in the day. Breezy and around 21’C. Skies clearing overnight, down to around 12’C.

By Tuesday the Azores high is pushing back in.

So Tuesday sees sunny spells, some cloud and warmer once more – up to around 25’C.

Wednesday sees sunny spells, and probably quite hot again, say 27’C or so.

Thursday and Friday are probably hot and sunny, in the range of 28’C to 32’C.

More likely next weekend is hot and sunny – pretty high confidence for 9-10 days away. A small chance it could become very hot, though more likely it will be in the range of 28’C to 32’C – which is still heatwave territory by definition.

Can this glorious summer last? Well, yes and it probably will – the more likely outcome for the rest of July sees high pressure in control, so much more sunshine is expected, and more hot days too.

Weak signals for August, but if it ends up drier, warmer and sunnier than normal, that would not be a surprise, though maybe a little more mixed than July.

Enjoy!…