A more mixed week ahead, but staying mostly very warm/quite hot. It’s a forecast that quickly becomes uncertain too.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure further north-east over Scandinavia, a low pressure to our east trying to head west (hence the less hot air today) and low pressure systems trying to move east too. A little complex.

Sunday will be a mixture of cloudy spells and sunny spells – cloud more likely in the morning. Generally speaking, it will become sunnier as the afternoon goes on. Assuming a reasonable amount of sunshine, it will once again be hot – say around 29’C, though a little uncertainty on that. Overnight sees some high cloud spread in from the south-west, a stray shower not impossible and a fairly warm night – no lower than around 17’C.

Monday sees the flow become more westerly. Sunny spells with variable amounts of cloud, likely more cloud through the lunchtime period and perhaps a shower or two. More sunshine again expected later in the day. Still very warm, reaching around 26’C – though feeling a tad fresher in the afternoon, and becoming quite windy. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday starts sunny, with a small chance of an early shower. Cloud will thicken, probably we see a spell of rain or some showers arriving any time from late morning onwards. There is quite a bit of uncertainty, more likely I think we will see some heavy rain or heavy showers (an outside chance of a rumble of thunder), but possible we see very little rain and mostly just cloud. Around 22’C and quite windy. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday probably will be reasonably fair, with variable amounts of cloud and some very warm sunshine at times – reaching around 25’C. I say probably, as an area of rain won’t be too far to our south, and something cloudier or even damp is possible instead, if still only a fairly small chance.

And that is as far as I can go with any confidence. Just 4 days and only 2 of them I’m only semi-confident on.

Generally the pattern looks mixed, with some showers or rain on some days, and some sunshine on other days. Showery or dry/sunny days will still be very warm, if not quite hot – generally between 25’C and 30’C.

But which days will be the more showery ones?

With very low confidence, Thursday and Friday arguably more likely to be dry or fairly dry, with some sunshine. Saturday and Sunday more likely to see some heavy showers, or perhaps rain, but still likely very warm (possibly hot).

I don’t think this is a “summer is over” declaration, but certainly it feels like a pattern change.

In general, I think we continue with the very warm theme for the next couple of weeks, but there will be showery days mixed in with sunnier days. Still there will be a chance of short heatwaves (though lower chances than of late) – I would not rule out something extreme either, though the trend does seem to be for the extreme heat of western Europe to become more south-eastern Europe.

Early suggestions are that high pressure may build again after the beginning of August, but that’s a long way away.

Enjoy your Sunday!