Back to normal for me, and pretty ordinary weather for everyone too.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

The general picture sees the Azores high stretching across the UK, but with a pretty strong jetstream close to our north.

Sunday starts bright but cloud will thicken during the morning as a weak weather front approaches. Some patchy rain in the afternoon, from around 1/2pm. Becoming quite windy, around 11’C. Skies clearing in the evening, mostly clear skies overnight – down to around 4’C.

Monday starts bright with sunny spells. Quite a lot of cloud will bubble up from around late morning onwards, still some sunny spells but cloud will dominate. Around 12’C and breezy. Clear spells at first overnight, cloud thickening in the second half of the night – perhaps a bit of drizzle/light rain at times. Down to around 5’C.

Tuesday will be mostly cloudy for most of the day, some light (ish) showers likely developing too – though hit and miss. Some bright spells, and the day probably ends with somewhat more sunny spells, though still plenty of cloud. We’ll lose the colder air, so reaching around 15’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 6’C.

Wednesday again sees a lot of cloud around, some bright/sunny spells – more likely early and late in the day. A few light (ish) showers around too, less likely than on Tuesday. Around 14, maybe 15’C. Probably fairly cloudy overnight.

By Thursday we see our Azores High having been pushed back west.

Some uncertainty on details due to some weak features around – fairly cloudy, some sunny spells and the chance of some showers would be about as detailed as we can get right now. Roughly around 13 – give or take.

Details remain uncertain into the Easter weekend – if anything are more uncertain than they were a few days ago, the models really are all over the shop.

So this is very vague and highly uncertain:

Good Friday, maybe on the cloudy side with some patchy rain and temperatures somewhere between 10’C and 15’C.

The slightly more likely outcome for Saturday is for a bright day with hazy sunshine, and quite warm, around 16’C ish – though I cannot rule out some light rain. However, it could easily instead be unsettled with strong winds and some rain and/or notably cooler.

The slightly more likely outcome for Sunday is something sunnier but also lower down in the temperature scale, say 10’C to 13’C. Rain is less likely on Easter Sunday than any other day, but still possible.

The slightly more likely outcome for Monday is for hazy sunshine, perhaps a bit of showery rain at some point but mostly pleasant. Around 14’C to 18’C. Again, I cannot rule out something totally different – say wet and 8’C, or whatever else you can imagine for April.

I told you it was going to be vague and uncertain.

Some suggestions of some warm weather after the Easter weekend (of course!) – the general expectation remains for the first half/two-thirds of April to be reasonably dry, the latter third more showery.

Have a pleasant Sunday.…

Hola de España! I can see snow on the mountains near Granada and it’s pretty cold back home, so the weather models tell me. Shorts weather here in Granada…well…from midday so I’m going to be cold before then!

Again I’m on questionable hotel wi-fi so we’ll see how I get on.

The general picture sees high pressure in control, with a cooler flow for now – staying roughly in the same position for a week or so with some tweaks as weather fronts pass to our north, occasionally bringing some showers/rain.

A pretty chilly start today, but pretty sunny to start too, some bits of cloud around. Generally it becomes cloudier this afternoon though still bright with some hazy sunshine. Feeling pretty cold in the northerly breeze, 10’C at best. Cloud continues to thicken overnight, some patchy light rain possible by dawn – down to around 5’C.

Friday sees a fairly weak weather front crossing, it will be cloudy most of the day, some patchy light rain at times – somewhat more persistent and moderate in the afternoon at times. Around 12’C and breezy. Skies clearing overnight, down to around 2’C, a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Saturday starts sunny, some cloud will bubble up and showers will develop – some quite heavy, and perhaps some sleet/hail mixed in to any heavier ones in the afternoon. No guarantee of catching any showers, your spot may stay dry. Colder again, 10’C at best and quite windy – gusty in any showers. Clear skies overnight, down to around 1’C – a frost possible.

Sunday starts sunny but cloud will graually thicken with some patchy rain from around mid/late afternoon more likely – perhaps by early afternoon. Again temperatures on the chilly side, around 10’C and quite windy. Patchy rain clearing during the evening, down to around 4’C as skies clear.

Only subtle changes in the pattern for Monday as high pressure slips a bit further away from us, the jetstream to our north having a bit more effect.

A sunny start to Monday but it will generally cloud over – perhaps a light/moderate shower or two also. Around 12’C and breezy. Generally cloudy overnight, a bit of light rain/drizzle around.

High pressure probably nudging back towards us on Tuesday, cloud more likely than sun – but uncertain. Temperatures recovering a bit too, around 14’C…a tad more if sunnier.

Probably fairly similar for Wednesday.

So for the Easter weekend? Highly uncertain still. Dry weather is more likely than wet weather, or at least dry most days with a weak weather front or some showers on 1/2 days. Temperatures could really be anything…something unusually cold or unusually warm is possible, though I’d suggest the range of 12’C to 15’C is more likely.

The first half of April, maybe two-thirds looks generally quite reasonable, often dry, sometimes quite warm. Later in the month there is more of an unsettled signal.

Likewise May, though the signal for an unsettled May has lessened recently.

Enjoy the rest of your week…time for me to get ready for a tour of Granada. Next forecast should be on Sunday morning, assuming nothing goes wrong with my complicated journey home! I’m not sure why I make holidays so complicated.…

Hello from Tangier in Morocco! Warmer but not sunnier than back home, with more pleasant weather to come at times – until a cold blast mid-week next week.

Hotel wi-fi isn’t amazing, so there isn’t as much research as usual gone into this, and I may well get annoyed and quit, but we’ll see how we get on.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

The general picture sees high pressure in control – two main areas, one over eastern Europe and one to the west of the Azores – linking up over the UK. That link will be broken by midweek.

Any mist/fog patches will quickly clear this morning to leave increasingly hazy sunshine for the rest of the morning. Thicker cloud this afternoon as a very weak weather front crosses, still some brightness, perhaps a spot of light rain. Around 13’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 3’C.

Monday will be a pleasant day with broadly speaking hazy sunshine all day, sometimes quite clear skies, sometimes cloudier. Around 15’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 7’C.

Tuesday starts bright but cloud will continue to thicken during the day. Around 12’C, breezy – verging on quite windy. A band of rain crossing in the evening, clear skies follow – with colder air. Down to around 3’C.

For Wednesday we see a notably colder air mass having spread down from the north-west.

Sunny spells and scattered showers will be the theme, some of them heavy, most likely of rain but some kind of wintry mix possible if you get a notably heavy shower in the afternoon. Quite windy, gusty in showers – around 9’C but dropping in said showers. Clear skies overnight, probably still too breezy for a frost but a close call, down to around 1’C.

Thursday will see sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud – a small chance of an afternoon shower. Still feeling pretty cold in the northerly breeze, around 9’C. Clear skies and chilly at first overnight, though clouding over from the west with some light rain – down to around 2’C.

Friday roughly looks like a cloudy day with some light rain at times – some uncertainty on exact details. Around 12’C or so.

High pressure looks like it will try to build next weekend, but also some weak weather fronts around – so likely a bit of a mixture of cloud, some sunny spells and some light/moderate showery rain at times. Temperatures somewhere between 10’C and 13’C most likely.

Perhaps another blast of colder air for the week after…broadly speaking drier than normal conditions likely to persist to mid-April, but temperatures and sunshine amounts will depend on exactly where high pressure is.

Right I need to go get ready for my day trip to Chefchaouen…known as the “blue city”. Fingers crossed it stays dry! Have a pleasand Sunday.…

Often sunny, and quite warm at first.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

The general set-up sees high pressure over the UK, stretching well into eastern Europe – with low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal.

Today sees long spells of sunshine all day, a little bit of high cloud at times. Quite warm again, though a shade below yesterday – around 17’C. Clear skies for most of the night but mist/fog forming in places by dawn. Pretty chilly, down to around 2’C – a frost possible in some spots.

Friday probably starts with mist/fog/low cloud – not for certain, but more likely. Gradually this will break up to leave long spells of sunshine, perhaps a bit of cloud floating around in the afternoon. Still quite warm for the time of year, around 16’C. Clear skies for most of the night, mist/fog patches may form by dawn, though 50/50. Down to around 2’C, a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Saturday possibly starts with mist/fog/low cloud, though slightly more likely starts sunny – and it will be sunny for the rest of the day. Some high cloud around at times, making the sunshine a little hazy, and the flow now more easterly so a bit cooler – but still respectable at around 13’C, maybe 14’C.. Clear skies at first overnight, down to around 1’C so a frost very possible – though also mist/fog/low cloud forming more widely in the second part of the night.

Sunday likely starts with mist/fog/low cloud. This gradually breaking up during the morning to leave long sunny spells for the rest of the day, some cloud floating around at times perhaps. Again around 13’C, maybe 14’C. A weak weather front crosses overnight from the north-west, bringing some cloud. Down to around 4’C.

Monday likely sees more in the way of cloud due to the aforementioned weather front – some uncertainty, perhaps some sunshine at times. Around 12’C.

Something of a change for Tuesday as low pressure to our north will be closer.

Tuesday more likely a cloudy and breezy day – perhaps some rain though uncertain on that aspect, any rainfall should be pretty minimal. Around 12’C.

For Wednesday more likely we are in a somewhat colder north-westerly flow, sunny spells, a scattering of showers and temperatures roughly around 10’C. Feeling colder in the wind.

Thursday broadly similar, a north-westerly or northerly flow, sunny spells, a few showers around and feeling quite cold in the wind – around 10’C.

Friday and into next weekend more likely it settles down again with high pressure in control, uncertain on cloud amounts, certainly possible that there could be a fair bit of cloud around. Temperatures more likely in the range of 10’C to 13’C – though something colder, or indeed milder would be possible.

The Easter weekend remains a long way away meteorologically, early suggestions are that dry or fairly dry (ie the odd showery day) conditions are more likely than outright wet conditions, average or colder-than-average temperatures are more likely than warmer-than-average temperatures.

Holiday season starts for me tomorrow, so the next forecast will depend on hotel wi-fi quality and general holiday plans…though I will find time at some point. Alas, I shall be taking an umbrella with me…though sun cream too.

Enjoy the sunshine!…

Something sunny, something showery, something warmer and something colder – quite a mix ahead. Maybe even our first 20’C of the year.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

The general picture sees us in a westerly flow, though with the Azores high ridging across the south of the UK, and most of the rain/showers/wind to our north.

Sunday starts sunny. Cloud will thicken from the west from around late morning onwards, with some patchy rain this afternoon – though something more persistent and heavier likely for a couple of hours around late afternoon. Just about getting to 12’C and quite windy from lunchtime onwards. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, a stray shower possible in the evening/first part of the night, quite chilly – down to around 3’C.

Monday starts reasonably sunny. Generally the sun becomes hazier in the morning, and it will be mostly cloudy from around late morning onwards – perhaps some light rain in the afternoon from a weather front, but the bulk of the rain will be well to our north. Around 11’C and pretty breezy. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 8’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy, but this will gradually break up during the morning to leave a mostly sunny afternoon. Milder as the breeze turns more southerly, around 14’C, maybe a tad more – pleasant for mid-March. Clear skies for much of the night, though a chance of mist/fog patches forming by dawn, down to around 3’C.

By Wednesday our air source is from Africa, so temporarily something warmer (it’s always on a Wednesday so far this year, right?).

Mist/fog patches should clear quickly to leave long spells of sunshine all day, warm sunshine at that. Certainly we’ll get to 18’C, though I think 20’C is just about possible if everything aligns perfectly. Mostly clear skies overnight, a small chance of mist/fog patches forming, and down to around 4’C.

Thursday sees long spells of sunshine in the morning, more in the way of high cloud in the afternoon but still very pleasant. The breeze turning more easterly but temperatures still quite warm for the time of year, say around 17’C. Probably importing some cloud from the North Sea overnight – down to roughly around 6’C.

More likely by Friday we’ll have lost the warmth, and more likely it is cloudy – though that bit more uncertain. Temperatures more likely somewhere between 10’C and 12’C.

Uncertain on sunshine/cloud amounts next weekend, but almost certainly dry for Saturday, uncertain Sunday as perhaps low pressure over France/Spain could push some showery rain this far north (say 30% chance right now), and likely in a cool easterly flow all weekend, so between 9’C and 12’C, depending on cloud/sunshine amounts.

Uncertain where we go from there. Likely unsettled to our south over Spain/France, likely dry (and chilly) to our north – quite where we fit into that is unknown as of yet. And far too early to think about Easter forecast as well, maybe there might be a better understanding by this time next week. Keep hopes of warmth fairly minimal, but we could get lucky for a couple of days here and there.

Next forecast will be either Wednesday or Thursday morning, got a busy week ahead.

…

Fairly mixed ahead, nothing unusual for the time of year.

Apologies for being M.I.A. – my body decided against functioning for a few days. Therefore I haven’t checked the weather models for a few days either, so I’m a bit behind in my understanding of where we are.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

So we are back in a westerly flow, the jetstream has strengthened though is to our north, so the brunt of the wind/rain will be to our north too.

Today will be a reasonable day, sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud, breezy and around 12’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, though high cloud tending to build by dawn, down to around 5’C.

Thursday starts bright with hazy sunshine. Cloud will thicken during the morning, with some patchy rain in the afternoon. Notably strong winds too, from around lunchtime onwards – around 12’C. Some showery rain in the evening, the rain becoming generally heavier and persistent around late evening and into the early hours – it looks like there will be a squall line mixed in too, so a short spell, say 15 minutes or so, of very heavy rain and potentially damaging gusts of wind, roughly around midnight/1am. The rain then clearing around/before dawn. The squall line will introduce colder air – down to around 5’C once this passes through.

Friday likely starts cloudy, perhaps still some rain left to clear. Quite a bit of cloud will follow, some bright/sunny spells, some fairly innocuous showers around too. Feeling colder, around 8’C and breezy. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight – down to around 1’C, a frost possible especially in more sheltered spots.

Saturday starts sunny. From around late morning onwards, cloud will tend to thicken as a weak weather front crosses, perhaps bringing a shower or two, but still some bright spells likely. Around 10’C. Clear skies for a time overnight and chilly, tending to cloud over later. Down to around 2’C.

Similar set-up still on Sunday with the westerly flow, though the Azores high trying to nudge towards us.

Some uncertainty but fairly likely there is a weather front bringing some outbreaks of rain at times during the day. Breezy and around 10’C.

Monday probably dry or mostly so, perhaps more on the cloudy side and around 11’C.

The more likely outcome for Tuesday is dry and cloudy, or at least often cloudy – and around 11’C or so.

The more likely outcome for the rest of the week next week is for high pressure to build, so staying dry or mostly so, temperatures respectable for the time of year – say 11’C to 15’C, depending on cloud/sunshine amounts – which is very uncertain at this stage.

Certainly potential for some more very pleasant early spring weather…but we could easily end up with lots of cloud stuck underneath the high instead.

No strong signals for what follows, and still waiting to see if the sudden stratospheric warming event that happened will have any effect down here in the troposphere, and if so what effect. My guess is that high pressure will build to our north, but that doesn’t really help determine what our weather will be for late March onwards.

Next forecast should be on Sunday, hopefully feeling more human by then.…

The often pleasant weather continues – not without some rain and some cloudy days, but just about more sunshine overall. And temperatures well above-average, especially today.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph – nice to be able to use the sunny ones again.

The general overview sees high pressure to our east and a southerly flow, though a small low pressure system close to the north-west is encroaching.

Today will be a very pleasant spring day, long spells of sunshine, a little bit of cloud floating around this afternoon but not much. Quite warm, we should reach around 17’C. Clear spells at first overnight, though cloud thickening as the night goes on and a weather front approaches – perhaps some mist/fog patches by dawn too. Down to around 6’C.

Friday starts cloudy, perhaps some mist/fog patches. A spell of rain will move up from the south from around mid-morning onwards, generally light or moderate rain, rainfall totals pretty limited. Around 11’C. Staying mostly cloudy in the evening/overnight, the odd splash of rain possible, around 7’C.

Saturday sees a lot of cloud around for probably most/all of the day, perhaps the odd splash of rain mixed in – though there is a chance that it could break up by mid/late afternoon to leave sunny spells. Most likely around 12’C, but if the sun does come out, and if it is early enough, say by 3pm, then maybe 15’C. Cloudy overnight, around 7’C.

Sunday starts cloudy once more but I’m much more hopeful of the sun coming out this time. Cannot promise it, maybe a 20% chance it stays cloudy for most/all of the day, but more likely the sun breaks through from around lunchtime (ish!!) onwards. Assuming the sun comes out, then 16’C should be reached – if not then closer to 12’C. It will likely cloud over again overnight, perhaps with mist/fog too – though also one or two showers from a weak weather front may push across. Around 7’C.

Hints of a change by Monday with another small low approaching, but also the jetstream powering up to our north.

Some uncertainty for details on Monday, a good chance of mist/fog/low cloud early on, also a chance of some showers or showery rain around at times – but also some bright spells too. Around 13’C. Skies likely clearing overnight though a fair chance of mist/fog forming before dawn. Down to around 5’C.

Tuesday more likely sees mist/fog/low cloud in the morning, gradually lifting into sunny spells – though certainly possible it is either a mostly sunny or a mostly misty/cloudy day instead – too early to call in detail. Around 12’C to 16’C – depending on sunshine amounts.

Wednesday probably sees a weak weather front crossing with a bit of rain – timing uncertain but if it clears early enough then sunny spells would follow. Around 13’C.

Perhaps a pleasant day for Thursday but low confidence.

More broadly we should then migrate back into a more unsettled spell, though I state lower confidence than usual due to the sudden stratospheric warming event that has now happened – we’ll see to see what effect this has on the troposphere, if any.

My current hunch is any unsettled spell from late next week/next weekend lasts for a week before it settles down somewhat.

Have a pleasant end to the week/weekend – next forecast should be on Sunday morning.…

Spring is here! And yes there is some sunshine, mostly milder than normal temperatures and some dry weather in the forecast too.

Thanks to Hailey for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with low pressure to our north-west, the jetstream fairly weak and mostly meandering to our north.

Sunday starts cloudy with some outbreaks of light/moderate rain. Generally drier this afternoon, some bright spells – but still some light showers possible. Around 12’C and breezy. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

Monday will be mostly sunny, some high cloud around and times, and a bit of fair weather cloud – but a very pleasant day for early March, temperatures around 14’C, perhaps squeezing 15’C. Quite breezy. Some cloud overnight as a weakening weather front crosses, perhaps a spot of light rain – down to around 5’C.

Some cloud around at times on Tuesday, a small chance of some early morning fog patches too, but also some sunny spells at times. Reaching around 13’C. Likely becoming cloudy overnight, a chance of mist/fog forming too – down to around 4’C.

By Wednesday we see high pressure centred just to our east – a favourable position for warmer temperatures.

Likely a lot of cloud to start the day, some mist/fog patches too – gradually this will lift but how long it takes is uncertain, I’m hopeful of at least a sunny afternoon. Temperatures above average but how much depends on how long it takes for the cloud to clear, so somewhere between 12’C and 16’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, around 6’C.

Thursday should be sunny for much of the day, and likely quite warm for the time of year too – reaching around 16’C, give or take. Average temperature for this time of year would be around 9’C. Some cloud likely later in the day as a weather front approaches from the west. Said weather front will bring some rain either in the evening or overnight.

For Friday, possibly still some rain around in the morning, depending on how much progress the overnight weather front made – slowly it should clear, perhaps some sunshine later in the day. Some uncertainty on this – the weather front could easily arrive later, or clear earlier. Temperatures back to normal – around 10’C or so.

Most likely high pressure is back in control for next weekend, not 100% certain but not far off. Sunshine more likely than cloud, perhaps some cloud at times, and it should be dry. Temperatures somewhere in the range of 12’C to 15’C more likely.

More likely this kind of pattern continues into the second week of March, often well above-average temperatures, often sunny – occasional weather fronts bringing some limited rain.

I will hopefully get around to the spring forecast in the next couple of days, though my to-do list has gone a bit crazy so we’ll see. Have a good Sunday and enjoy the upcoming sunshine…we deserve it!…