It’s the first nice, warm, sunny day for a little while. Well…it is for now.
Cloud will bubble up this afternoon and heavy showers are likely to break out from around 4pm onwards.
Still a bit of uncertainty right now as to how widespread they will be, though I’d argue more likely a band of heavy downpours will form and spread north, perhaps with some lightning also…hence most people seeing at least one downpour. Could be briefly torrential, hail also possible. Any time from 4pm, perhaps more likely 6-7pm, further into the evening also possible.
A small chance instead of a spell of general heavy rain developing for 2-3 hours, or maybe the showers instead will be very isolated. As it stands, I think the prior band of very heavy showers is the most likely outcome.
Well Monday’s forecast held up well – better than expectations and still holds well!
Now for the warmer part, but some hefty showers too.
Thanks to Zara for the photograph…beautifully wide!
Rather cloudy and breezy tonight – we are in between bands of showery rain, one over north England and the other over north France, due to the area of low pressure to the west of France which is dominating things at the moment. Down to around 12’C.
Friday starts with sunny spells. Scattered heavy showers will develop during late morning, a small chance of thunder or some brief torrential downpours. A band of rain follows between roughly 1pm and 5pm, a bit showery and some heavy bursts mixed in. Some sunshine for the evening but with scattered heavy showers, again a small chance of thunder or some brief torrential downpours. Fun! Quite warm, close to 21’C in the morning, and a little lower in the afternoon. Clear spells developing overnight and a warmish night at around 15’C.
One thing to bear in mind is that there is a small chance that a pulse of very heavy rain, perhaps thundery, could cross the area overnight – I do think this will be somewhere midlands/north but worth noting.
Saturday sees our low pressure edge back towards the UK.
There is warmer air around so we should get to 22’C, maybe a shade more and there will also be sunny spells. And there will be a scattered of heavy showers – no guarantee in catching one, though there should be a fair scattering especially late afternoon and evening – thunder definitely possible. Clear spells overnight, around 12’C.
Sunday looks a reasonable day. Some cloud around at times, generally fair weather cloud, decent sunny spells too. Still a chance of a shower but more likely to miss them, and nothing especially heavy if so. Warm, around 22’C. Clear spells overnight, around 12’C.
Monday again continues the broad theme. Sunny spells, plenty of cloud bubbling up and overall perhaps a bit more cloud than sunshine. A chance of showers, nothing especially notable currently expected, though far enough out to change. Around 21’C. Clear spells overnight, 12’C.
Tuesday sees low pressure pretty much right over England and in a perfect position for heavy showers.
Which is what we should get. Some sunny spells but the likely outcome sees lots of heavy showers, thunder more likely than not – could be some decent little storms for our standards, hail and torrential downpours all could be in the mix. Around 21’C. Variable cloud overnight, 13’C.
Wednesday looks similar. Again a high chance of some very heavy showers, thunder more likely than not, hail and torrential rain all could be mixed in. Showers potentially slow-moving, so get stuck under a really torrential one and there could be localised flooding. Around 22’C – warm in the sunshine.
Low in confidence by Thursday/Friday/Saturday. I think the slightly more likely outcome is that high pressure builds from either south-west or south, returning the very warm conditions, say 24’C ish, more sunshine but unlikely clear blue skies all day, and still very possibly some showers around.
Becoming warm and wet is the headline for this week.
You are going to have to forgive me a bit on this forecast though. The general pattern will be for low pressure to develop and track south-east during Wednesday, and sit down for a while from Thursday onwards just to the west of France.
This means it will start sucking in a warm easterly flow, likely humid too.
So from Thursday, there will be bands of rain circulating around this area of low pressure going east to west – I expect some parts of England/Wales will see copious amounts of rainfall during this week, perhaps a month’s worth, and potentially some localised flooding. At the moment I do expect this to be more likely over the west of England/Wales – but I cannot rule out quite a soaking for us too.
In between the rain, there will be the potential for torrential and thundery downpours – again not possible in advance to be sure where will catch these.
Expect vagueness and uncertainty, though I’m certainly looking forward to an interesting week of weather!
Thanks to Paul for the photograph.
Variable cloud tonight, down to around 10’C.
Tuesday sees spells of cloud, but there will be some sunny spells also…probably a more cloud than sun overall. A small chance of an afternoon shower, feeling warmer, around 18’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, some bits of showery rain starting to develop before dawn, down to around 11’C.
Wednesday sees the low pressure that will come to dominate our weather for a few days, slip down from the north-west and start to develop.
It will be rather cloudy during Wednesday – a bit of brightness at times, but also some occasional showery rain. Showery rain perhaps more likely in the morning, but really uncertain about the distribution right now. A low chance of general heavy rain late in the day though I think this more likely over west England – more likely just a scattered heavy shower or two. Around 16’C. Mostly cloudy overnight with some showers, though if we ended up in the rain area late on Wednesday, it would likely rain all night instead. Around 10’C.
Thursday starts with a bit of sunshine, though will overall see more cloud than sunshine. Heavy showers will develop and spread west, could be some very heavy rain mixed in, a smallish chance of thunder too. Around 18’C – quite windy as an easterly wind picks up. Showers still possible overnight – also a chance of rain spreading back up from the south late in the night, 12’C.
For Friday, low pressure is sat firmly to the west of France – dragging in an unstable, easterly flow – which has a warm source.
Friday is already in the bounds of uncertainty, though the more likely outcome sees a band of heavy rain spread north, perhaps more likely during the morning. Could be some very heavy rain mixed in, perhaps thunder. Sunny spells may follow, and assuming so, one or two scattered heavy downpours. Warmer and likely more humid, 20’C should be reached despite the rain, perhaps higher. Still quite windy. Showers possibly overnight, though not especially likely, 14’C.
Saturday looks warmer and sunnier, we may just about get to 25’C – though expect some humidity too. Some cloud will bubble up and scattered showers will develop – no guarantee of catching one, but if you do, then hail, torrential rain and a decent amount of lightning could be your reward. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.
Sunday, again not especially confident on details, but some sunny spells expected, likely warm or very warm, and a fair chance of scattered thundery downpours. Around 23’C – give or take.
A lack of confidence for next week, though I’d suggest something warm with occasional heavy showers is the most likely outcome, at least to start with.
For the end of next week the slightly more likely outcome right now suggests something quite hot…but with a risk of thundery downpours.
Forecast over.
I remind you of the uncertainty of the position of rain bands this Wednesday onwards – I will attempt updates in the morning especially if things have changed significantly from the above.…
Right. Welcome to my Summer 2020 Weather Forecast.
Let’s start with the caveat. I am not a professional meteorologist and at least some of this forecast will be wrong.
The aim is for more to be right than wrong – and my Spring 2020 forecast went pretty well. Not perfect – that is impossible. But I’m certainly happy with it, I think it was the most successful seasonal forecast for a year or so.
Also this is where I ask you to do some work. I do these forecasts for free and the only thing I ask in return is an occasional share. Share on Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, Mumsnet, Lycos Chat Rooms, whatever your internet poison of choice is. There are links to donate on my website, but I seriously don’t want or expect anything – if you feel thankful then maybe give to charity instead…there are people going hungry and I eat too much…but if you insist on doing so the option is there.
And thanks to Louise for the photograph. I had 150+ photographs, I could easily have used 130+ of them…and some really astounding ones. Out of my very favourites, this was the one that told the story most closely.
A £20 donation to the charity of her choice will be upcoming…please get in touch if you are reading!
It does look like a good summer ahead (unless you want cold and wet), but there will be a fair mix of conditions along the way.
Background Signals
Lets start by looking at some background signals.
The main one that I have my eye on is the sea surface temperatures. Anomalously warmer than normal near us – and colder over the west Atlantic. I feel that this will be the main background signal for our summer, and this should help with high pressure building either over the UK or to our east.
It looks like La Niña might develop later in the summer or early autumn, which a month or so ago I thought would develop around July and bring a cooler and wetter end to summer – now it looks more likely to develop during August/September and even then there is uncertainty. So I’m mostly discounting any effect – but this explains my original thinking of an unsettled August which I am now thinking unlikely.
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (look it up if you want to be scared by maths) is heading into easterly phase which can help promote high pressure to our north – but this transition is wobbling and perhaps showing signs of going back westerly which it absolutely should not do for a couple of years. Odd and concerning, but as far as the summer goes, this again helps my confidence that summer may end warm and sunny. I was originally expecting that this could increase the chance of unsettled and cooler conditions towards the end of summer, but the wobble makes me think not.
We are at a solar minimum which I feel favours weather patterns to get stuck in situ more easily – so things take longer to change…hence the long sunny spring. The science on the effect of solar minimum is debatable – it should in theory have favoured a cold winter in 2019/20 and look what happened! Though the record (?) strong Indian Ocean Dipole just overrode all other signals it seems.
The lack of heat over the continent so far this year and relatively wet conditions to our south suggest to me a lower chance of extreme heat – so a lower chance of record temperatures being broken, but it certainly can still be hot or very hot at times.
I also expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season. Whilst I have no idea how this might play out and affect our weather this far in advance – think of it as a greater curveball to my forecast than usual. When hurricanes get this far east (being ex-hurricanes by that point), they can change weather patterns – or exacerbate them. 2011 (I think) was a classic where two ex-hurricanes passed to our north-west bringing us that really hot September.
So…tell me something I understand
The general pattern for June will often see high pressure to our west, and also to our east over Russia – with us stuck in the middle, occasionally enjoying an extension of either high pressure, but low pressure dominating to our south.
June starts very warm (granted I’m writing this on 6th June so easy to forecast for the past). A northerly flow develops, bringing cooler and showery conditions for a while.
Exactly what happens after is uncertain, but rain or showers are quite likely in the second week or June – and rain bands could get stuck somewhere over England and produce some large totals of rain…but whether that is here or somewhere else I cannot know at this stage.
I feel that an easterly flow may develop before the middle of June – bringing warmth but an increased risk of thundery downpours.
Later in June looks more likely to be warm or very warm, perhaps even quite hot at times. Some good sunny days but I’m not expecting wall-to-wall sunshine and some thundery showers or even rain should be mixed in.
Certainly an interesting month, and watch out for the potential of flooding in France and/or Spain.
Overall I expect around average sunshine, somewhat above average temperatures. Low confidence on rainfall as it will depend on whether we get stuck under bands of rain in the second week of June, and any potential downpours.
Confidence level 70%.
July (I will write less, I promise), again looks quite a mixed month. There is a danger that I will get timings wrong on things here especially, but here goes.
There is a weak signal for something cooler and showery for the beginning of July again.
Otherwise July looks like a mixture of fine, very warm/quite hot sunny weather, with occasionally weak weather fronts from the north/north-west bringing some less warm conditions and a bit of rain/showers.
Towards the latter part of July, it looks like high pressure will be close to our east and low pressure close to our west – there should be some hotter and more humid days around, but also some wet days too, perhaps some thunderstorms.
Overall I expect slightly above average sunshine, above average temperatures and rainfall slightly below average – though catch a thunderstorm or two and it could locally end up well above average.
Confidence level 50%.
August now looks like high pressure will dominate to our east or over the UK and low pressure to our west. This distance away it is still finely balanced and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a wet August, but my forecast is for a sunny and hot August.
Yes, August I expect to be the best of the 3 summer months and I don’t recall ever forecasting that! Though I barely remember last week let alone every summer forecast I have made.
Often very warm or hot, good sunny days – occasional heavy, thundery showers developing some afternoons, though plenty of very nice weather.
Towards the end of the month, unsettled conditions arguably more likely as we head towards September – and the potential influence of La Niña.
Overall I expect above average sunshine, above or even well-above average temperatures and rainfall again more likely below average, but could be above locally if you catch some downpours.
Confidence level 60%.
Happy with that?
A brief look ahead to autumn – September looks more likely to be unsettled, otherwise there are no strong signals for the rest of autumn – a very weak signal for a drier than normal October.
I’m not thinking about winter until I know how the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation progresses.
Today sees a band of patchy rain sinking south – it should clear around 2/3pm and as you can see from the radar image it is rather broken up – some light rain, some heavier rain – and quite a bit of the time just cloud.
Sunshine and heavy showers will follow, could easily be lightning/thunder mixed in, could be some torrential downpours too – small chance of hail. No guarantee of catching one, but most likely catching 2-3 – continuing into the evening too.
Windy, 15’C at best.
More showers tomorrow, mostly dry Monday/Tuesday. Uncertain after.
I might do my summer forecast later this afternoon…will see if my motivation levels survive after housework and life admin…joy. At least the weather is interesting.…
Cool and showery is the theme. Well, I was ready for something different.
Apologies that I still haven’t done my summer forecast. Haven’t had the energy or motivation. Will do it this weekend.
This evening and the first part of the night will be cloudy with scattered showers, one or two on the heavy side. Likely dry and fairly clear by dawn, 9’C.
Friday will see more cloud than sunshine, but there will be sunny spells. Also some showers, some heavy – a small chance of a rumble of thunder but not especially likely. 15’C and feeling cool in the wind. Showers fading in the evening, cloud clearing overnight, northerly wind becoming quite strong, down to around 6’C.
Saturday sees low pressure to our east in control, with a cut-off low right over eastern England.
Saturday starts sunny, but a band of showery rain will spread south, bringing 2-3 hours of showery rain from roughly late morning. Some sunny spells will follow but also some scattered showers, could well be thundery, hail and torrential downpours possible too. Strong winds too, 15’C at best – that does assume a bit of sunshine! Showers clearing in the evening, variable cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.
Sunday looks quite cloudy – some limited sunshine at times though probably hazy. Showers are likely to develop though there is a bit of uncertainty on how widespread and how heavy. My educated hunch is less than Saturday but still a few scattered showers and they could well be heavy – thunder possible but less so than Saturday. Around 15’C in lighter winds. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.
Monday will be more boring. Quite cloudy – some sun at first and occasionally during the day, a small chance of a shower. 16’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 5’C.
Tuesday looks quite cloudy. A bit of sun at times, a small chance of a light shower. Otherwise nothing much to note. Around 16’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 6’C.
Wednesday continues this nothingness. Stuck in between high pressure to our south-west and a large area of high pressure over Russia.
There should be more sunshine – probably some cloudy spells too, but unsure on that at the moment. Temperatures picking up again, maybe around 19’C. Confidence is slipping a bit though.
As I mentioned, not especially confident by now, but I think we may pick up an easterly breeze by Thursday, but sourced from the Russian high and the hot weather over there. Sunny spells, a small chance of a shower and becoming warm again – say 22’C, as the more likely outcome.
There is instead a chance of low pressure developing over us – still generating an easterly flow, but rain/showers.
I do think that low pressure will develop (as the most likely outcome) but more likely it develops to our south either Thursday/Friday. This will mean the warm/very warm easterly but also a chance of heavy showers or even longer spells of rain late next week and into next weekend.
Very uncertain at this point as to where said low pressure will be, if it does develop – and hence whether there will be any rain/showers/thunderstorms associated. But I think it is the most likely outcome that it does develop either over us or slightly more likely to our south, and I’m fairly confident of this warm/very warm easterly flow.…
Today is the first day of summer. The long warm, sunny spell is about to go on holiday – unlike me or you. Cooler and showery will be the theme.
Thanks to Paul for the photograph to call an end to the fine spell.
Though not quite just yet…you have another day!
Tonight will be mostly clear, bar a bit of high cloud towards dawn. Down to around 11’C.
Tuesday will be another very warm and sunny day, though there will be high cloud around, perhaps enough to make the sun a little hazy at times. 25’C or close to. Becoming cloudy overnight, and a rather warm night at around 15’C. Chance of a little rain before dawn.
For Wednesday we start to see low pressure developing to our south-east.
It will be rather cloudy with some occasional showery rain. Some light, some heavy bursts, perhaps a rumble of thunder. It looks unevenly distributed so some areas may get no more than an occasional splash of rain, others a few heavy bursts. Still a kind of warmish feel, and a little sunshine too, 18’C and becoming breezy. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 11’C.
Thursday starts cloudy with some patchy light rain. Some brighter spells in the afternoon, but also some scattered heavy showers, perhaps a longer spell of rain too for 2-3 hours – though some places staying dry. Around 16’C. Showers still possible in the evening, becoming fairly clear overnight in a northerly breeze, chilly, down to 6’C.
By Friday we are under the influence of a rather large trough to our east, and a northerly flow.
It looks fairly cloudy but with some sunny spells, and a scattering of showers developing. A low chance of more general showery rain instead, though that is uncertain. Around 15’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, the chance of showers remains, down to around 8’C.
Saturday looks like having a northerly flow. Some sunny spells possible, but more cloud likely, and a chance of showers. Uncertain on shower chances as it will depend on the position of the low pressure – a low chance of more general rain too. Around 15’C.
Sunday looks like seeing high pressure start to edge in from the west. Still rather cloudy with some sunny spells, still a chance of showers though more likely on the light side. Probably a tad cooler too, say 14’C.
Next week is uncertain, but the most likely outcome keeps temperatures on the cool side, with further showers or rain.
We should start to see more sunshine and warmth from around the middle of June, though it isn’t impossible that what currently looks like a 10 day cool and unsettled spell could be extended further.
I shall endeavour to issue my summer forecast in the next couple of evenings.…
