The summer re-start has been delayed again thanks to another weak low pressure trough idling in from the west, but it is coming…summer will be coming…ho…no don’t say it. Way too obvious.

It does feel a bit like in May, where I could see the pattern change but it took longer (much longer in May) to arrive than expected. Although the weather for July so far does fit in reasonably well with my seasonal forecast – these delays to the restart of summer do make me nervous, yet I am pretty confident that next week will see the restart.

Alas, more showers to come first.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

A small chance of a heavy shower this evening, but these fading quite quickly – variable cloud follows with temperatures down to around 13’C.

Friday will see plenty more cloud but there will be sunny spells too, a bit more sunshine than recent days but still overall more cloud than sun. A chance of a shower in the afternoon, say around 30% chance and warm, around 21’C. Cloud tending to thicken overnight, some patchy rain arriving before dawn, down to around 14’C.

Saturday sees the next pesky weak low pressure trough arrive on the scene.

It starts cloudy with showery outbreaks of rain – it should be mostly light/moderate. Gradually during the afternoon brighter skies will push in from the west, though with one or two scattered showers. On the cool side for July, 18’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

It’s Coming Home Day looks rather cloudy with some occasional sunny breaks. Some showers also likely at times, perhaps heavy, but uncertain as to how widespread they may be – certainly could stay dry but I wouldn’t put money on it. Around 20’C. Showers or rain likely at some point in the evening or overnight – again uncertainty about timing and track on this – potentially heavy/very heavy and around 15’C.

Monday is uncertain due to the positioning of the low pressure trough, though it will be a more notable feature by this point. Likely unsettled, the question is really over whether it will be cloudy with spells of heavy/very heavy rain or sunshine and heavy showers – the former more likely. A small chance of thunder. Around 18’C, give or take. Showers or rain still possible overnight.

By Tuesday the low pressure trough will be over the east of the UK – though high pressure starting to nudge in from the west, helped along by ex-tropical storm Elsa to its north-west.

Details again sketchy for Tuesday – more likely a case of sunshine and heavy showers, but smaller chances of something drier and also smaller chances of more general rain. Around 20’C, perhaps a tad more.

By Wednesday, high pressure should be starting to influence a bit more, so it should be an improvement from Tuesday, but still good chances of a shower or three, and still likely plenty of cloud around, but some sunshine. Around 21’C.

Thursday should see high pressure just nudging a tad closer. Still a small chance of a shower, still plenty of cloud at times – especially the middle of the day, but warmer and a bit closer to what you might expect in summer.

By Friday, probably dry (no promise), probably more sunshine – but still a long way from glorious with plenty of cloud still likely to bubble up. And warm, around 22’C, give or take.

Next weekend should be dry and fine – sunshine amounts and temperatures are uncertain at this stage. Could be mostly sunny, could be mostly cloudy, could be anywhere from around 19’C to 27’C – all will depend on where high pressure situates itself.

I still expect most of the latter half of July, and first part of August to be broadly very warm/hot, decent amounts of sunshine – small chances of thunderstorms or the odd weak weather front spreading down from the north-west.

Next full forecast should be Monday, but who knows whether I’ll be capable after celebrating/commiserating the final of Euro 2020. Have a good weekend.…

Some sun, some cloud, some showers and getting a bit warmer.  Not a summer classic, but it could be worse.

Thanks to myself for the photograph – I was just passing through though.

This evening sees rain spreading up from the south, heavy at times, especially around an hour either side of midnight, briefly dry before further heavy/very heavy showers push up from the south-west, a rumble of thunder possible. Quite windy, temperatures around 14’C.

Tuesday still sees low pressure in control, over the UK but starting to shift north.

Some sunshine at times, but plenty of cloud and lots of heavy showers, a rumble of thunder possible. Temperatures disappointing for July at around 19’C and windy for the time of year too. Showers less likely in the evening – but still one or two isolated heavy showers. Plenty of cloud overnight, a few clear spells, 12’C.

Wednesday will be similar, but a bit more sunshine and a few less heavy showers – yet still plenty of heavy showers around, and a rumble of thunder possible too. Showers tending to become less frequent later in the afternoon and in the evening, and less likely to be heavy. We should squeeze 20’C, maybe 21’C. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 11’C.

Thursday improves a tad more. Sunny spells, quite a lot of fair weather cloud around also, some scattered showers – some places will stay dry, others will catch one or more showers which could be light or heavy. Warm, 22’C – maybe 23’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

By Friday we are in this kind of no overall control situation which we’ve had a few times – which risks weak low pressure troughs developing – very similar to two weeks ago. Both the Azores High and Russian High are too far away to influence at the moment.

That said, Friday should be quite reasonable. Sunny spells at times, more likely in the morning – tending to be more cloud in the afternoon though how much is uncertain at the moment, perhaps rather cloudy if I’m forced to choose. Warm with a small chance of a shower, around 22’C, give or take. Rain possible overnight…

So as I mentioned, this no overall control situation may lead to another trough incoming for the weekend…joy. But at the moment this is uncertain, but a little more likely than not.

This would lead to some rain either Friday night or during Saturday – you can hope for Friday night, which would leave sunshine and showers for Saturday, though even Saturday morning rain would likely clear to showers in the afternoon.

Sunday would then likely be sunshine and showers.

So not the most amazing week/weekend ever for July and annoyingly uncertain for an important weekend, but also not a total washout either. Next week should see more influence from high pressure building from the Azores, though I feel like I said the same last Monday (I actually said it was too close to call).

I’ll be back on Thursday…well…depending on how much I celebrate/commiserate a semi-final.…

A return to summer is close, but we have one more low pressure system to deal with first – well, two systems but they are going to merge into one as they cross the UK over the next few days or so. Perhaps it is three systems, actually – a little hard to tell!

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

This evening has a small chance of a heavy shower developing, say around a 10% chance, otherwise overnight will see some clear spells, but also plenty of high/mid level cloud. Down to around 13’C.

Friday sees a large and complex low pressure trough to our west edge further east towards the UK.

It will be warm ahead of the low, with some sunny spells – though plenty of cloud around too, on balance over the course of the day likely a bit more cloud than sunshine. Also some scattered heavy showers will break out during the afternoon, say a 30% chance of catching one or two. Very warm, 23’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, a weather front spreading up from the south-west will bring some showers after midnight, potentially heavy towards dawn. Around 15’C.

Saturday is a day of limited sunshine and plenty of heavy showers. The best of any sunshine in the afternoon, but also the heaviest of the showers, thunder possible, in the afternoon too. Warm, around 21’C – most places should catch a fair few showers throughout the day. Some clear spells at first overnight, but mostly cloudy after midnight and the chance of some heavy showers increasing as the night goes on. Around 15’C.

Sunday is another day of limited sunshine and lots of heavy showers. There is a suggestion of something cloudier with more general showery rain in the morning, this turning into limited sunshine and frequent heavy showers. Showers could be very heavy with thunder possible. Around 19’C. Showers clearing in the evening, variable cloud overnight and down to around 13’C.

By Monday things get a bit more complex, and uncertain, with the low pressure systems still to our west but starting to move towards us quicker.

Current suggestions are for a something a bit calmer whilst we await the next weather front. Some sunshine though increasingly hazy, some cloud, and smaller chances of not so heavy showers. Around 20’C. Though I’m not especially confident on that, as it will depend on how the low pressure systems interact with each other. In the evening or overnight, heavy rain and possibly strong winds will spread up from the south – there is uncertainty on the timing (as well as uncertainty over the general evolution).

Tuesday sees the low pressure system over us, though starting to move away to our north. So it will be another day of sunshine and showers, some heavy – but overall less than on Saturday/Sunday. Possibly starting cloudy with some rain – depending on the timing of the likely rain from the night before. Around 20’C or so.

Wednesday should be something of an improvement, with sunny spells, a few scattered showers and temperatures around 21’C.

From Thursday onwards, we should start to see the Azores High nudge in from the south-west.

This isn’t guaranteed – the weather pattern and general momentum could feasibly allow for a final sneaky low pressure trough to creep in late next week instead, but at around a 70/30 chance, I’d say high pressure building from the south-west is the most likely outcome.

Which means from Thursday onwards through next weekend, decent spells of sunshine though still quite a bit of cloud around at times, starting to become warmer though nothing excessive, and still a shower chance though this gradually diminishing.

All this should – should set us up for a very warm/hot second half of July, with high pressure dominating and only occasional small chances of thundery downpours. And maybe even into the first part of August too.

A bit like the football, don’t get too excited yet…but there is promise. Have a good weekend.…