It remains changeable – warmer, then colder, then wetter.

Photograph is from me this week, as Facebook isn’t loading messages for some reason.

This morning will be mostly cloudy with a few splashes of fairly light rain, as a weather front slowly sinks south-east, some occasional brightness. Likely still mostly cloudy this afternoon, but some sunny breaks, some brightness – a small chance of a light/moderate shower. Around 14’C, perhaps a little more if sunshine amounts surprise. Mostly cloudy this evening and overnight, some showery rain possible mid/late evening and around midnight – the bulk of it will be further north-west. Mild, around 10’C.

For Wednesday we see high pressure trying to build over the UK, the jetstream well to our north with associated weather systems, and one just dropping down to Spain.

Wednesday morning will be quite cloudy, though it should be thin enough for at least some hazy sunshine at times. Also one or two showers dotted around, and perhaps some patchy light/rain drizzle at times. In the afternoon, some more cloud breaks likely, so at least some sunshine, but plenty of cloud still around and available. Quite warm, 16’C, maybe 17’C. Fairly cloudy overnight though a few clear breaks, down to around 8’C.

Staying on the cloudy side for Thursday, the morning cloudier though some hazy sunshine possible, the afternoon generally sunnier, though some cloud still around. Mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C. Fairly cloudy and increasingly so overnight, as a weather front spreads down from the north-west, down to around 6’C – some rain possible by dawn, timing uncertain.

Friday starts cloudy with outbreaks of rain. Some uncertainty on how quickly it clears – could be anything between 9am and 4pm before it clears, I’d favour somewhere around midday. Also some uncertainty as to whether it will intensify into heavy rain – more likely light/moderate rain, but perhaps something more. Sunny spells, fair-weather cloud and cooler air following – around 11’C. Clear skies overnight and colder than of late, down to around 1’C in a fairly cold wind. A frost possible.

By Saturday, colder air has spread south.

Colder and showery – sunshine and showers will be the theme, some heavy showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, hail and sleet possibly mixed in too, especially in any notably heavy showers. Around 8’C but a pretty chilly wind. Quite windy with further showers possible overnight, around 3’C.

Sunday sees things moderating, some sunshine, some cloud, still likely some showers around, which could be on the heavy side – but generally fewer than Saturday – perhaps you’ll miss them. Still on the cool side, around 9’C. Chilly overnight – a frost possible.

I think this is where the forecast ends, at least with any form of accuracy on details, though more likely it becomes unsettled once more as the jetstream moves south, likely due to the sudden stratospheric warming event which happened a week or so ago.

More likely than not, next week will be unsettled with further spells of heavy rain, and heavy showers, strong winds possible at times too. Generally on the cool/cold side – an outside chance of some sleet/wet snow mixed in.

Likely this continues into Easter weekend too, but there is a small chance of dragging up some warmth from the Mediterranean instead…or as well as the rain.

April likely starts wet/showery too. It will change…in time.…

Mild and mixed.

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph.

Today starts fairly cloudy with a few scattered showers. Drier for a time with some sunny spells, but more showers developing from around late morning onwards, heavy, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. It will feel semi-pleasant in the occasional sunny spells though, and reaching around 15’C. Quite windy, particularly in the showers. Clear skies overnight and a chilly night, down to around 2’C – a touch of frost in more sheltered areas by dawn.

For Saturday we have a ridge of high pressure trying to push up from the south, and further weather fronts pushing across from the west.

It starts sunny but cloud will thicken somewhat, with a few splashes of mostly light rain in the afternoon – though at time the cloud likely thin enough for some hazy sunshine too. Around 11’C or so. Showery rain spreading across in the evening and overnight, somewhat erratically – perhaps quite persistent rain for a while overnight. No lower than around 10’C.

Early cloud and perhaps still some rain will clear gradually on Sunday, to sunny spells, some cloud and a few scattered showers. 15’C, maybe 16’C – feeling quite warm. Some clear spells, some cloudy spells overnight.

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts on Monday, but broadly some cloudy spells likely, some sunshine at times – a small chance of a shower. Still on the mild/quite warm side, somewhere between 14’C and 16’C.

A weakening weather front crosses either Monday night or Tuesday morning – so depending on timing, Tuesday will turn into sunny spells and a few scattered showers. Again still on the mild/quite warm side – somewhere between 13’C and 17’C.

From there it is pretty uncertain on the direction, let alone day to day details.

Changeable looks more likely than settled, though there looks to at least be failing attempts at building high pressure over the UK.

Likewise it is uncertain whether we stay in the very mild/quite warm air, or we end up with something more westerly-sourced, around the 10’C to 12’C range. Maybe slight favourite the 10’C to 12’C range.

It’s not particularly surprising that after a major sudden stratospheric warming event the models are struggling to see the way ahead in the short-term, let alone medium-term.

Generally speaking, as we go towards the end of March and beginning of April, high pressure is more likely than not to build further north, so depending on where it builds, we’ll more likely either end up with a chilly/cold easterly/northerly, with the low pressure track over Spain/France latitudes, or we’ll end up wet and possibly chilly with the low pressure track over France/southern UK. A variation between the two also possible.

Always frustrating when I cannot give more detail in the short-term, but I’m not really trusting of the model output right now, so 3-4 days tops is as much as I feel I can offer in reasonable accuracy…I’m not even that confident about Monday or Tuesday’s forecast!

Enjoy your weekend…and the snippets of relative warmth!…

Lots of cloud, but becoming much milder.

Thanks to Lucinda for the cloudy photograph. I actually have quite a few photographs in my Inbox at the moment – let’s hope for some sunshine so I can use the rest!

Today will be cloudy and wet. The rain heavier and more persistent this morning, becoming lighter and patchier this afternoon. Breezy and around 12’C. Still a few patches of light rain this evening, but it will become dry, if remaining cloudy. Down to around 10’C.

The general picture for Wednesday sees low pressure to our north-west, and high pressure once more building over Spain, pumping up warmth – a similar pattern as to what gave us the record-warm (and wet) February.

Cloudy is the theme, perhaps a little patchy light rain at times – though some limited brightness will be possible, especially in the afternoon. Mild, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Breezy too. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 8’C.

Thursday again sees plenty of cloud, but there will be some bright/sunny spells too. Later in the afternoon, a weather front will bring some showers – a bit of uncertainty on the timing, more likely late afternoon but perhaps earlier, or perhaps not until evening. Reaching 15’C, perhaps a bit more if the showers can hold off until later…I wouldn’t rule out a 17’C. Ooh! Remaining breezy too. Scattered showers in the evening and overnight, possibly on the heavy side, no lower than around 10’C.

Friday sees plenty more cloud, a bit of sunshine at times, and quite a few showers – likely heavy, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Breezy and mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C. Clear skies and a chilly night likely, down to around 3’C – perhaps a touch of frost by dawn.

Details a bit uncertain for the weekend, high pressure trying to poke its nose in from the south, but weather fronts continue to march across too.

Broadly speaking, the more likely outcome for Saturday sees bright and dry weather in the morning, with cloud thickening and some rain later. Perhaps we can squeeze out something a bit more spring-like, but also perhaps we don’t get the bright and dry morning. The theme is there, but the timing is in question as it stands. In the range of 12’C to 15’C.

Sunday is again somewhat uncertain, but more likely we’ll be between weather systems, so broadly, some sunshine, some cloud and temperatures around 15’C, give or take. Not bad really, though I stress not especially high confidence.

Next week likely starts on the mild/quite warm side, though positioning of weather fronts uncertain – and hence uncertain as to cloud amounts/rain timing, etc. Temperatures more likely to head back down to normal, or even on the chilly side as the week goes on, and generally remaining changeable.

In the latter part of the month, both colder than average, and warmer than average conditions are more likely than normal. The former due to the sudden stratospheric warming event, the latter due to the strength (again) of the Spanish high pressure. Don’t be surprised to see a flip from one to the other.

April is still looking mixed, some colder spells still possible at the beginning, some warmer spells at the end.

Signals for May have trended to warmer and drier than normal, signals for June also remain this way. There should be some very nice weather ahead!

Interestingly I saw a paper published that seemed to argue that a late season sudden stratospheric warming event (which we’ve had) means a warmer and drier summer is more likely – which is something I’ve believed for a few years, and now maybe there is scientific evidence.

I haven’t read the paper (a bit too heavy going for me), so I may be paraphrasing incorrectly, hopefully I got the gist. Next forecast should be Friday morning.…

Fairly mixed weather. Not a washout – but no early spring warmth either.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Today looks sunny, once any early mist/fog patches clear. Some high cloud at times, especially this afternoon. 10’C, maybe 11’C but the south-easterly wind will make it feel cool. Cloud thickening overnight as a weather front pushes up from the south – the odd splash of rain in the latter half, down to around 5’C.

The general picture for Saturday sees low pressure heading into France/Spain, and nudging into southern UK.

Generally fairly cloudy, one or two showers dotted around but also some bright/sunny spells too. Reaching around 11’C, maybe 12’C and quite windy. A band of showery rain spreads up around early evening, perhaps by late afternoon, and then further showery rain at times overnight – more so later in the night. Down to around 7’C.

Sunday looks wet, with rain at least at times during the day, though quite likely it become persistent and on the heavy side. Some uncertainty on timings with the rain – will be quite tricky to forecast specific details until 12 hours before on this one. Breezy and around 9’C. Further showery rain possible overnight – but uncertain. Generally cloudy – a small chance of mist/fog forming. Down to around 4’C.

Monday looks cloudy, perhaps some light rain/drizzle at times. Some sunny spells possible – if the sun comes out in the afternoon, a shower could develop too. Around 9’C, give or take. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 4’C, give or take.

Tuesday also looks on the cloudy side, temperatures around 10’C – some bright/sunny spells possible but the emphases on cloud.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday/Thursday next week sees low pressure systems trying to push in from the west – bringing cloud, wind and some bits of rain, but probably nothing too much. Milder too, around 12’C.

That said, confidence isn’t especially high – models are swinging around with different solutions at fairly short timeframes.

This might be due to the fact that we’ve had another sudden stratospheric warming event – a 3rd of the winter, which according to the Met Office is a 1 in 250 year chance.

The last two SSW events didn’t lead to colder weather, like the often do. This one has more potential to bring northerly/easterly flows – it normally takes 2-4 weeks for this influence to drip down to the troposphere (our part of the atmosphere), so this may account for greater model variability in the short-term.

Hemispherically-speaking, high pressure systems are more likely further north, low pressure further south – and that will be the theme for late March and into April, though low pressure systems are already further south (ie France/Spain).

It will be an interesting few weeks, and of course, by time we get to mid-April, easterly winds don’t necessarily mean cold…as the continent is warming up notably by then.

Enjoy your weekend…time to work.…

Less rain. But still some more rain.

Thanks to Eve for the photograph.

Tuesday sees a weakening low pressure slide across the south of England, bringing cloud and showers at times – showers could merge into longer spells of rain but this will be fairly localised, also they could be heavy at times – but some uncertainty on which exact areas of southern England will get more rain and when. Some brightness possible later in the day at times. Reaching around 9’C in fairly light winds. Fairly cloudy overnight – the rain should stay to our east though it will likely head our way so I cannot be sure it stays dry, but more likely. Some clear spells possible – especially the further west you are. Down to around 2’C, a chance of frost the further west you are – and possibly some mist/fog by dawn. What a complex little day!

Wednesday sees high pressure continue to build over Scandinavia, and start to influence our weather.

Wednesday morning starts with a mixture of mist/fog/cloud patches – a small chance of some drizzle, perhaps a few spots with some sunshine. Generally it will brighten up with some sunny spells, and some showers breaking out also. Reaching around 10’C. Quite a bit of cloud overnight, a chance of a shower, some clear spells also – down to around 3’C.

Quite a bit of cloud to start Thursday, one or two scattered showers – say around a 50% chance of catching one. Generally increasing amounts of sunshine in the afternoon, and reaching around 11’C, maybe 12’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, becoming breezy, down to around 4’C.

Friday looks rather pleasant. Sunny, a bit of fair-weather cloud, and increasing amounts of high cloud as the day goes on, but otherwise…quite nice. A south-easterly breeze still making it feel a tad cool, but reaching somewhere between 10’C and 12’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, some showery rain pushing up from the south by around dawn – some uncertainty though. Down to around 5’C and still breezy.

For Saturday we see high pressure well to our north, low pressure being pushed south over France/Spain, and nudging into southern England.

It’s possible that the rain stays to our south, but more likely we stay cloudy with outbreaks of rain from time to time – not always raining though. Say an 80% chance of this, 20 % chance we stay dry. Likely on the mild side, around 10’C, give or take and quite windy too. Further rain possible overnight, though uncertain on where it will track at this stage.

Sunday looks cloudy and breezy with an easterly flow, though not especially cold – around 9’C or so. Some showery rain possible – details uncertain at this stage.

Next week likely stays with this easterly flow – more likely cloudy, perhaps some light rain/drizzle, and on the cool side. High pressure probably remains in control for at least a couple more days next week.…

Spring is here but autumn continues – can confirm that it was a gloriously wet and wild walk this morning.

More showers to come.

Thanks to Marina for the photograph.

Heavy rain on Friday morning will give way to sunny spells and scattered heavy showers – you may miss all the showers, but more likely you catch a few. Showers heavy/very heavy, perhaps with hail/thunder or even sleet/wet snow. Windy, especially in the showers, 8’C but feeling colder than that. Some showers in the evening/overnight – with a trend towards general heavy showery rain in the latter part of the night – a small chance of some sleet/wet snow mixed in. Down to around 3’C.

Low pressure remains in charge for the weekend – centred over the south of England.

Generally showery with some occasional sunshine, showers potentially heavy with a small chance of sleet/wet snow mixed into the heaviest. Less showers later in the day. I think some uncertainty over exact details – so don’t be too surprised if few showers – or the opposite, more general rain. Around 6’C – breezy and chilly. Mostly clear skies overnight, frosty for all – down to around -2’C, mist/fog patches in some places.

Sunday should be fairer. Early mist/fog patches lift into sunny spells and fair weather cloud. Small chance of light showers, but more likely you’ll stay dry. Around 8’C or so. Clear skies with a frost likely overnight, down to around -2’C, mist/fog patches forming in places too.

There is one model showing a spell of rain/sleet/snow instead on Sunday – it seems so far out of range of likely outcomes that I should dismiss it – all other models keep this area in the North Sea, way to our east. Worth keeping an eye on anyway.

Monday sees early mist/fog patches clear to sunny spells, becoming increasingly hazy as the afternoon goes on. Perhaps a light shower, but otherwise dry until rain in the evening. Around 10’C and becoming breezy. Rain spreading across in the evening and first part of the night, clear spells follow, down to around 4’C.

Not especially high confidence on the details, but broadly Tuesday looks a reasonable day, with sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and some scattered showers. Temperatures around 10’C. Frost/fog possible overnight.

By Wednesday we see high pressure over Scandinavia continuing to develop, and spread its influence our way.

Likely on the mild side for Wednesday, in a more southerly-ish flow, up to around 12’C. More likely dry, perhaps with some sunshine, though confidence in details not especially high. Frost/fog possible overnight.

Where we go from there for late next week and into next weekend is broadly outlined, but details are still to be determined, and will depend on the shape and location of the Scandinavian high pressure.

We could end up with a more south-easterly flow, probably on the milder side, say 10’C to 12’C, though with a trend away from drier sunnier conditions to cloudier and wetter conditions as low pressure systems try to spread up from the south-west.

Or we end up more easterly, a colder flow, temperatures between 4’C and 7’C, with cold winds and perhaps wintry showers.

The milder south-easterly outcome seems more likely for late next week and into next weekend, though perhaps colder easterly is more likely after that.

I shall try to write the spring forecast this weekend. Keep your expectations low.…

On the chilly side and generally fairly mixed to end February and bring in March.

Thanks to Philippa for the photograph.

Tuesday starts bright with spells of sunshine, albeit often and increasingly hazy. A weak weather front crosses during the afternoon/evening, bringing thicker cloud and a little light rain at times. Around 7’C. Clear-ish skies overnight, though mist/fog forming in places towards dawn. Chilly, down to around 3’C.

Early mist/fog patches will lift on Wednesday, but it will stay fairly cloudy with some hazy sunshine. Thicker cloud spreads east during the afternoon, with showery light/moderate rain. Breezy and milder, 10’C. Cloudy overnight with the odd bit of light rain – something somewhat heavier around dawn, around 10’C.

Thursday morning sees some showery and possibly heavy rain. Some uncertainty as to when this clears east – any time between midday and 5pm, is feasible – with sunny spells following. Mild in the rain, 10’C, maybe 11’C, but notably cooler after it clears. Clear skies overnight, temperatures dropping to around 1’C – a touch of frost possible. Towards dawn rain approaches, perhaps with a touch of wintriness mixed in.

For Friday we have this low pressure trough dropping down from the north-west with some colder air mixed in.

The morning sees heavy rain, perhaps a little sleet mixed in, but predominantly rain. A short spell of strong winds is likely as it arrives – not going to make for the most pleasant morning walk! This clears to sunny spells and the scattered heavy showers in the afternoon. Around 7’C. Further showers probable in the evening and at times overnight – most likely rain, but something wintry mixed in is possible. A chilly night, down to around 2’C but very give or take – a frost possible.

Low pressure will still be in charge for Saturday. Sunny spells and scattered heavy showers is the more likely outcome – though it will depend on the exact positioning of low pressure. Around 7’C. Some uncertainty overnight, though the slightly more likely outcome is a clear and frosty night, down to around -1’C – but there is a chance instead of some showery rain.

Sunday likely still has low pressure close by, but exact positioning is uncertain and hence details are sketchy. Broadly though, sunny spells with a chance of some showers, and around 8’C.

Showers still possible for Monday, though by Tuesday it looks like high pressure is going to start building from the south-west.

So the middle of next week looks most likely that it will be dry, with sunshine/hazy sunshine and turning milder, say 12’C or so. Pleasant enough. Not a done deal – but close to. Overnight frosts possible.

Where high pressure then centres itself will determine whether we get a taste of spring, or a reminder of winter. My suspicion is that it will centre itself over Scandinavia, and we’ll get something more south-easterly/easterly which will lead to cooler/colder and cloudier conditions. Can we sneak a nice spring-like weekend out first? Possibly, but that’s 11 days away.…

Colder than it has been, though nothing unusual. Otherwise mixed, some sunshine, some showers, some rain.

Thanks to Hev for the photograph.

The general picture sees a large low pressure trough over north/western Europe, even digging down into parts of Spain – bringing colder Polar Maritime air.

Today sees sunny spells and heavy showers. The sunshine often hazy with a layer of high cloud, the showers generally heavy – hail and thunder could be mixed in, perhaps in any really heavy ones there could be a wintry touch too. Around 8’C but feeling cooler in the breeze, especially in the showers. Showers mostly fading in the evening, I cannot rule a stray overnight shower, but mostly there will be clear spells, and a frost – down to around -1’C. I think the first frost of February (air frost, ie 0’C or below).

Saturday sees more in the way of sunshine, especially in the morning and late afternoon – through late morning into early afternoon there will be more cloud, and some showers. Fewer showers than Friday, so you may miss them all, but some heavy ones around. Still on the chilly side, 8’C. Clear skies overnight, though high cloud will spread in from the west as the night goes on. Down to around -1’C and frosty.

Sunday sees low pressure spread down from the north-west, towards France. This will bring a cloudy day with at least some showery rain. Some uncertainty on details, we are more or less on the northern edge of where the rain is likely, so it could just be dribs and drabs, or it could be fairly persistent all day. More likely it is patchy and light/moderate for much of the day, with heavier and more persistent rain later in the day – but as I said, there is a fairly wide window in terms of what happens. Also it will gradually become windy – strong winds by the evening and overnight, perhaps touching gale force. 8’C by day, 5’C by night.

Monday sees low pressure slowly clearing – it cannot move east, so it sinks south towards Spain. They do need the rain!

Possibly still some showery rain in the morning, but it should gradually clear to brighter skies – note some uncertainty though. However the strong north-easterly wind will persist through the day, and it will feel pretty raw – reaching around 7’C but feeling colder. Winds easing and skies clearing overnight, down to around 1’C, give or take – perhaps a frost.

Tuesday looks dry with hazy sunshine. Around 8’C. A weak weather front crossing overnight, bringing cloud and a bit of patchy rain – down to around 4’C.

Wednesday will be dry with some sunny spells, some cloud. Temperatures up a notch to 10’C.

Thursday at least starts dry – a weather front looks like it will spread east either in the afternoon, or evening/overnight, bringing some rain – timing uncertain at this stage.

The more likely outcome for Friday and into next weekend sees low pressure around – so further showers and perhaps general wind/rain. Not especially high confidence, but the more likely outcome.

We’ve had another one of those technical sudden stratospheric warming events – it has been a strange winter. It’s kind of comparable to the technical recession described on the news last week, yes it is a recession but there’s little impact in terms of unemployment – yes there has been a sudden stratospheric warming event, but there should be little impact in terms of changing the weather down in the troposphere.

I think the trend for March will see the jetstream further south than normal – France/Spain may be wetter than normal, for example. Likely we’ll therefore also see low pressure quite often, with rain/showers at times – and average temperatures more likely, which is almost akin to saying cooler than normal, given the crazily warm Atlantic Ocean, which keeps setting records.

Enjoy your weekend.…