Generally very warm but mixed conditions ahead for the week.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

We start the week with a ridge of high pressure over the south of the UK, low pressure not far away towards Iceland.

A fairly sunny start for Monday, a spell of cloud will push across from the west in the morning, though remaining dry and bright. Sunny spells again in the afternoon and very warm, 24’C. Becoming breezy. Some cloud, some clear spells for most of the night, though cloudier by dawn as a weather front approaches. A fairly warm night, down to around 16’C.

Tuesday morning sees a band of cloud and some mostly light rain cross – a heavy burst is possible, but most likely any rain is light. Sunny spells and fair weather cloud follow for the afternoon, very warm but breezy again, around 24’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunny spells to start Wednesday but it looks like a lot of cloud will develop, to bring a rather cloud day from mid/late-morning onwards, with a few sunny spells. A small chance of a light shower. Around 22’C and breezy. Cloud clearing overnight, down to around 12’C.

Thursday probably starts sunny, but cloud will spread across from the west as a small feature crosses the country – uncertain on rainfall amounts, perhaps no rain down here, or just a little drizzle – but there is a chance of some heavier bursts also developing. Around 21’C and notably breezy, if not quite windy. Mostly cloudy and fairly warm overnight, a chance of some further bits of showery rain – likely no lower than 17’C.

By Friday, we remain in our westerly flow, with high pressure trying to nudge up from the south-west. The jetstream stronger once more.

Not especially high confidence on details, but at the moment more likely cloudier in the morning, perhaps still a bit of patchy rain to clear – sunnier in the afternoon. Likely very warm, 24’C or a bit more. Likely clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Much more uncertain for Saturday – high pressure will be trying to build from the south-west at the same time that a (probably) decaying low pressure crosses the UK. I guess more cloud than sun overall, with some rain possible later – feeling very warm once more, but how warm it gets will depend on sunshine amounts, most likely between 22’C and 27’C.

Don’t be surprised if it is instead cloudy all day with some rain – likewise if it is sunny all day and cloud/rain remains further north.

I cannot guess at Sunday yet. Likely very warm, but otherwise it could be anything.

There’s quite a lot going on driving the uncertainty. A re-invigorated jetstream, and attempted push of hot air from Spain, and the uncertainty over the track of hurricane Debby.

Suggestions are that the push of hot air from Spain may cause some very heavy, thundery rain for early next week – but take this with a huge pinch of salt. There was a chance it may bring a brief very hot spell, but seems unlikely now, though not impossible.

Going further forward, it looks somewhat more likely that changeable conditions will dominate, with something less warm and more unsettled, at least for a time – but as I mentioned, there is a lot going on, and this could change.