Predicting the development of showers and possibly thunderstorms in such set-ups as we have is a bit like trying to predict who will win Eurovision next year, but there are a couple of broad themes.

Away from showers, it will generally be bright with a cover of high/mid level cloud – so hazy sunshine at times, but nothing like yesterday, and feeling warm at 22’C – at least outside of the showers.

It looks like there will be a cluster of showers moving north roughly between 11am and 2pm – they are showing up in the English Channel now, some pushing into the south coast. A lot of uncertainty over how much rain there will be – there could easily be some short very heavy bursts of rain, or just some general rain (more likely) – or maybe it will all fizzle out (less likely). Thunder unlikely, but a small chance in any notable showers.

Through the rest of the afternoon, showers less likely, but possible.

And into the evening, say any time from 6pm but uncertain on timing, a renewed risk of showers – these more likely to be very heavy or torrential, thunder more possible in these too, though still more likely to miss any thunder, say a 25% chance, with an 80% chance of catching some downpours.

Tomorrow should see more sunshine but also a few scattered heavy showers, possibly thundery, and warm.

Tuesday and Wednesday, very warm or even quite hot, scattered thundery showers possible.

Full update tomorrow evening as usual.