A cold week ahead – but milder, and wilder weather returns for the weekend.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies at first, though cloud will thicken somewhat in the second part of the night. Frosty, down to around -3’C.

The general picture for Tuesday sees cold air having spread down from the north, with low pressure to the south-west trying to push towards us.

It will be mostly sunny, or hazy sunshine – hazy particularly earlier and later in the day. 3’C though feeling colder. Fairly cloudy overnight, though the cloud often thin enough for a frost to form – down to around -2’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy but bright, with some hazy sunshine – the low pressure doesn’t quite make it to England, hence no snow event. Generally we’ll be looking at hazy sunshine all day, and cold, 2’C. Skies clear overnight and we’ll see a sharp frost, down to around -5’C, perhaps lower, especially in more sheltered spots. A breeze adding to the wind chill.

Thursday sees the northerly re-establish itself. Long spells of sunshine, though cold – and the northerly breeze making it feel quite biting. Around 2’C. Mostly clear and frosty overnight, down to around -4’C.

Friday sees long spells of sunshine, though cloud thickening somewhat in the afternoon as weather fronts approach. Around 3’C. A frost probable at first, though cloud will thicken as the night goes on, the wind strengthens and temperatures will pick up a bit.

Saturday looks cloudy and windy – strong winds, with temperatures recovering to around 6’C. Some uncertainty on rainfall – more likely it arrives in the evening and is fairly patchy, but scope for it to be earlier in the day. Windy overnight – likely a bit of rain at some point.

Details still need firming up for Sunday, but it looks windy, perhaps with gales – and a spell of rain at some point. Mild, around 11’C.

There is a chance of something a stormier for Sunday – sufficient for damage/disruption, but too early to firm up on how strong the winds will be. Most likely strong winds or gales but a chance of severe gales. One to watch for if you have plans for Sunday…perhaps overnight or Monday instead.

Further outbreaks of rain and strong winds likely for the start of next week too – probably very mild, we might squeeze a 15’C.

More likely high pressure builds again from around midweek next week, to settle things down once more. Probably mild at first, but an increasing chance of overnight frost by next weekend.…

The gentle Arctic plunge is on for the weekend – but it isn’t the only game in town as low pressure will be trying to move up from the south-west shortly after too.

Could it snow next week? It could, but also it might not. Yes, I will later be giving you another breakdown of possible outcomes for next week…if you prefer being told EXACT SECOND A 6FT BARRAGE OF SNOW HELL DESTROYS BRITIN, then you know where to go for that.

Forecasting is about probabilities, whether that be elections, football scores or the weather.

This forecast is just one person’s opinion based on current (messy) model data and experience of analysing weather models for the past 20 years. I am not always right. I hope you enjoy reading, I mostly enjoy writing (depending on my accuracy) and I never ask for anything. Well, I might need a new job soon (not yet) so maybe I’ll ask if you know any companies looking for a senior software engineer. But apart from that, I hope you enjoy, but please remember I am just one amateur forecaster – there are other sources of forecasting.

And apologies for the opening rant…bad day at the office, wary that this forecast is soon going to get uncertain, and I know everyone wants to know if it will snow or not next week. I don’t know. But it could.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy and down to around 3’C. Frost unlikely except perhaps in the most sheltered spots.

The general picture for Friday sees our high pressure system still over the UK, now centred over Ireland and slipping west.

Friday will be mostly cloudy. A few glimmers of brightness at times, more so in the afternoon. Around 6’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, though a few clear spells towards dawn and temperatures down to around 1’C – a chance of a frost.

Still quite a lot of cloud around on Saturday, though some sunny spells at times. Still on the cold side with the flow turning around to the north, though the breeze still light at this stage. Around 5’C. Some clear spells overnight, though plenty of cloud still. Down to around 1’C, give or take – a frost possible especially in more sheltered spots.

Sunday still has a fair bit of cloud, but there will be more in the way of sunny spells than recent days. An afternoon shower possible, it should be of rain. Around 5’C with the northerly breeze starting to pick up. Clear skies overnight and down to around -3’C as the cold air digs further south.

By Monday, the Arctic plunge is…well…plunging, but also low pressure to our south-west is gathering some energy and trying to push our way. Where wet and mild meet cold – snow could happen depending on the dynamics, but that’s still a day or two away at this stage.

Monday itself will just be cold and sunny – temperatures struggling to 2’C at best, with a notable wind chill from the northerly breeze. Most likely clear skies overnight with a fairly sharp frost, down to around -4’C, perhaps lower – though there is a small chance of a little feature developing with something cloudier and slightly less cold spreading down from the north-west – perhaps even with a light dusting of snow.

Tuesday is where things get messy. First there is the possible overnight feature – which looks like it will be much further north, but this is a long way from being modelled well. Then there is our approaching low from the south-west. More likely Tuesday is sunny and cold, around 3’C – but that feature and the approaching low mean I’m not especially confident.

Overnight is the first time that this low to our south-west could arrive, bringing snow or a snow-to-rain event (perhaps just rain but not likely mild enough before it arrives)

However, the low pressure could easily stay to our south – and it just stays cold.

Wednesday depends on the track that the low pressure system takes. So it could be cold and dry, it could be heavy snow, it could be snow turning to rain (or it snowed overnight and then turns to rain).

For the rest of next week, attempts to bring milder conditions from the west will continue – and the balance of probability in terms of what falls from the sky will gradually become more likely rain than snow, especially by next weekend.

The following week (w/c 22nd January) is more likely unsettled and mild, but cold weather should return either for the end of January or beginning of February.

A substantial and lengthy cold spell is plausible. Rarely have I seen so many background signals pointing to colder than normal weather, for this time of year.

Just to summarise the possible snow event – around a 25% chance of a spell of heavy snow, either Tuesday night or during Wednesday. It’s unlikely the models will get a good handle on the track for another few days – maybe we will have confidence by Sunday.

Enjoy your weekend…apologies again for being a bit ranty.…

A cold and dry week ahead.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Still some snow showers around in the early part of this evening, but these will swiftly clear west to leave a cold and fairly cloudy night – but likely enough clear spells for a frost and some ice. Down to around -1’C.

So the general picture for Tuesday, and all week is high pressure centred over Scotland with a cold easterly wind.

Some cloud at first but this will break up to leave long spells of sunshine. Cold, with a cold wind, 3’C at best. Clear skies overnight, down to around -2’C, give or take, frosty.

Wednesday also sees long spells of sunshine. A bit of cloud but mostly sunny. Temperatures up to 4’C, but still a cold breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight though a bit more cloud later. Frosty, down to around -2’C.

The breeze turns more north-easterly on Thursday which will spread cloud down. Perhaps sunny to start, but once the cloud arrives – it will just be cloudy. A bit less cold, 5’C, maybe 6’C. Remaining cloudy overnight, around 4’C.

Friday remains mostly cloudy, though maybe a little occasional sunshine. Around 6’C. Likely mostly cloudy overnight, though a few clear spells. Roughly around 1’C – though a chance of a frost if cloud clears sufficiently.

A bit more uncertainty over cloud amounts for Saturday but more likely on the cloudier side of the scale, though with some sunny spells. Perhaps some patchy light rain or drizzle also. Around 5’C or so.

By Sunday, our high pressure moves west/north-west.

This allows two things to happen – colder Arctic air to try to push down from the north, but also low pressure systems to push up from the south-west.

For Sunday itself, conditions will remain broadly unchanged – some cloud, some sunshine and around 6’C – a small chance of some patchy light/moderate rain.

After that is where things become more interesting and much more uncertain.

Broadly speaking there are 3 different possible outcomes for next week, but we could get a combination of them over the course of next week, as opposed to just one clear outcome.

Outcome 1 sees Arctic air sweep south – cold, likely sunny by day, sharp overnight frosts – snow showers possible.

Outcome 2 sees low pressure push up from the south-west, bringing somewhat milder weather, but also rain – probably preceded by a spell of snow.

Outcome 3 sees both the Arctic air push south but also low pressure move north, and we meet in a battle ground scenario with heavy snow.

I’d currently favour either outcome 1, or a mixture of outcomes 1 and 3 – however, a mixture of outcome 1 and outcome 2 isn’t much further behind in terms of likelihood.

The week after next, is arguably more likely back to mild with at least some rain – though cold and wintry weather could very easily return towards the end of January and into February, at least at times.…

The rain is over for a while, time to look east and then maybe north, as colder and drier weather develops.

Thanks to Marion for the photograph.

Friday looks rather cloudy due to the overhang from the day before’s rain. There will be a bit of brightness at times, and also the odd shower – both more likely in the afternoon. Around 7’C. Fairly cloudy overnight with a little showery rain possible, down to around 3’C.

The general picture for Saturday sees high pressure starting to build around the UK, and an easterly starting to form.

Saturday again looks fairly cloudy, though there will be some bright/sunny spells at times – and a bit of occasional light rain. Feeling colder, around 5’C, maybe 6’C. A mixture of cloudy spells and clear spells overnight – a frost in places, down to around 0’C with enough clear spells. An outside chance of fog forming.

Sunday should see more in the way of sunny spells, but it will be cloudy at times – perhaps a spot of light rain but more likely it stays dry. Feeling fairly cold in the easterly breeze, 4’C. Uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight – a frost possible with enough clear spells, and temperatures somewhere between -2’C and 2’C.

Monday sees a mixture of sunny spells and cloudy spells, with the chilly easterly breeze continuing. Around 4’C. Probably enough clear spells overnight for a frost, down to around -2’C, give or take.

Tuesday looks much sunnier, though it will still be cold in the easterly wind, around 3’C. Uncertainty on cloud amounts once more overnight, a frost possible with enough clear spells – temperatures broadly somewhere between -3’C and 1’C.

Wednesday has a greater chance of cloud, though it will depend on exact positioning of the high pressure system and exact wind direction. Suggestions of it being slightly less cold, at around 5’C but still feeling cold in the easterly wind.

No real change for Thursday and Friday.

High pressure remains to our north, we stay in an easterly – but questions will remain over cloud amounts.

If cloudy, then overnight frosts unlikely. If not cloudy, then sunny spells by day but also overnight frosts. Generally on the cold side, though nothing spectacularly so.

Then what happens?

I’m not sure that I’ve ever seen so many signals, both shorter and longer term, all suggesting cold is more likely, than I do right now. Long-term we have an easterly QBO which means westerly winds are less likely in winter, plus El Niño winters tend to be drier and colder in the latter half.

We have a displaced polar vortex, we have a weakened stratospheric vortex thanks to an earlier Canadian warming event, and the current stratospheric warming event (which isn’t quite a major SSW but should impact anyway), we could still have a full-on SSW soon, the MJO cycle is in favour of a cold high pressure over the UK, and other factors I don’t especially understand such as angular momentum are apparently in favour, though I have to rely on the word of others for that. Plus the Met Office is signed up to cold.

Of course, our prevailing weather in the UK in winter is mild and Atlantic-driven.

Anyway, next weekend the more likely outcome sees our high pressure move west, perhaps north-west to Greenland.

This then allows two things – one an Arctic flow to set up from the north. But it could also allow low pressure systems to the south to get further north towards the UK.

I think, more likely the cold Arctic flow is the winning outcome – often sunny, snow showers possible though would generally need some kind of feature to develop, sharp overnight frosts.

However there is a scenario where the two meet – which on the northern edge would lead to heavy snow. It’s not likely but something to watch. Of course, the heavy snow could be further north, and we’d be in the milder air with heavy rain.

Where we go from there is uncertain, we need to sort out next weekend’s weather first – but I’d be surprised if this was our only cold spell. The cold spell could go on some time, with a chance of it being a very significant spell of cold weather – even if there may be a short break.

Interesting times ahead. Enjoy your weekend.…

Brand new year, same old rain. With gales for this afternoon too.

But colder weather is around the corner.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So the general picture sees a large low pressure trough over and to the west of the UK, with various smaller systems circulating around it. Also of note is a strong build of high pressure over Scandinavia – and some really, very cold air there.

Rain this morning until around midday, some showers will follow and only a little brightness. However the main story will be the wind – becoming strong by around midday, but during late afternoon there looks to be a spell of 2-3 hours of gales, roughly between 3pm and 7pm. There is still a bit of uncertainty on the track – the strongest winds could be our area, or they may be a little further north. The strongest gusts look likely to be around 60mph which will be enough to cause some damage and disruption. Mild, 13’C.

The wind easing in the evening and overnight, though still breezy, quite cloudy and the odd stray shower possible. Down to around 8’C.

Wednesday will be a day of some sunny spells, but plenty of cloud and a few showers – some heavy. Maybe you’ll miss them all, but more likely you’ll get a couple during the course of the day. Around 9’C and breezy. Clear skies developing overnight, down to around 4’C.

Thursday likely starts bright, but the next low pressure system will probably encroach as the day goes on – some uncertainty on the track, but more likely than not there will be a spell of rain during the day, more likely afternoon, and probably it becomes windy once more. Around 8’C. A bit colder overnight, some showers still possible – down to around 2’C.

The low pressure starts to weaken on Friday – by this point the jetstream is diving towards North Africa – changes are afoot. Plenty of cloud for Friday, likely a few showers and a bit of sunshine at times. Temperatures around 7’C. Uncertain on cloud amounts overnight – fog and frost possible, more so the former, but perhaps just cloudy and chilly instead.

By Saturday, low pressure is over the continent and we are starting to source our air from the east.

Likely quite a lot of cloud though some sunny spells, and a small chance of a light shower. Around 5’C, maybe 6’C and starting to feel a bit colder. Some uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight, but there should be enough clear spells for a slight frost, around 0’C – give or take.

Sunday sees the breeze pick up so it will feel colder, with temperatures reaching 4’C. Some sunny spells, some cloud – a chance of a shower which could have a wintry note should you catch one. Probably frosty overnight, some cloud and a small chance of a wintry shower – down to around -2’C, give or take.

Next week looks mostly dry and fairly cold with high pressure close to or over the UK. Too early for details and will depend on exact position of the high pressure system.

Potential for fog both day and night, potential for frosts too (especially if fog doesn’t form) – daytimes will either be sunny, cloudy or foggy. And generally it will be on the cold side.

I wouldn’t rule out wintry showers – the high pressure will need to be a little more north than currently seems more likely, but it is within the scope of possibilities for next week.

The cold spell is more likely than not to continue after next week – perhaps being re-enforced by a plunge of Arctic air from the north.

Assuming the cold spell happens, it’s pretty impressive how well this was signalled in the weather models and background signals – Boxing Day was the first time I mentioned it, so almost two weeks away, though on 21st December I did mention a chance of short cold spells in my forecast during the first half of January.

Praise should go to the scientists developing the models and theories – I’m just putting it into words. That we can forecast the cold spell this far in advance, to me, is very impressive.

Oh and Happy New Year!…

Rain before the year ends, and rain to start the new year too.

A rare indulgence from myself for the photography this time, with a glimpse of the rare nacreous clouds that I had the excitement of seeing on Christmas Eve up north.

Tonight sees showers fading, reasonably clear skies for a time but cloud will gradually thicken with a little rain arriving before dawn. Down to around 5’C.

The general picture for Saturday sees the next low pressure system arriving.

It will be mostly cloudy, perhaps a little brightness at times. The main band of rain stays to our west, but there will be occasional bits of rain throughout the day, more so in the morning. Becoming windy but also milder, 11’C. The band of rain will get its act together in the evening and push east – a little uncertainty on timing but anywhere from 8/9pm onwards, give or take. It does look like there will be a squall line mixed in – 15 to 30 minutes of very heavy rain and gusty winds, perhaps causing some isolated damage, say 11pm/midnight – but timing a little vague. Further showery rain will follow the likely squall band. Dry and cooler later in the night, down to around 4’C.

New Year’s Eve starts dry, and likely sunny. Cloud soon develops and a fair scattering of showers will push across – most places catching a few showers, some heavy/very heavy and quite squally in gusty winds. 8’C. Some showers overnight, but they will tend to become fewer – some clear spells and down to around 4’C. Still quite windy.

New Year’s Day is uncertain at this stage – the next low pressure will be approaching but there is also likely a cut-off low ahead of it, where the models are struggling to handle the direction. It’s roughly 50/50 as to whether it heads to southern UK or northern France, maybe 60/40 in favour of the UK. If so, then, well, it will be wet. If not, then sunny. Around 7’C either way. The next area of rain will arrive either in the evening or overnight, and winds will become strong again too. Will I make it to 2024 without booking a holiday?

Low pressure will be in control for Tuesday.

Details uncertain at this stage, but likely to involve rain and/or showers at some point. Around 10’C, give or take and breezy.

Wednesday is more likely sunny spells and heavy showers – perhaps a spell of general showery rain. Around 10’C or so.

Thursday and Friday more likely sees low pressure still around, with showers or rain at times and temperatures more likely in the range of 8’C to 10’C.

Next weekend may become colder – there are certainly fairly strong signals for high pressure to form either over the UK or to the north/north-west/north-east – all of which are cold solutions. Though perhaps next weekend might be a little too soon, and it happens into the week after.

This probable cold spell (as much as any weather patterns against the norm can be probable 8-10 days away) is nothing to do with the possible sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, which the media now seem to have picked up on…and right on cue it now looks more like a minor warming event than a major one.

Whether a minor SSW, if this is what it will be (still 10ish days away from happening), will affect our weather later in January is debateable. But before then, we already have a weak tropospheric polar vortex, along with an easterly QBO, El Niño and now a possibly favourable phase of the MJO – all things I mentioned in my winter forecast – all things that increase the chance of cold spells in northern Europe in winter.

Interesting times ahead…but no guarantees of cold – remember, it goes against our normal weather patterns in autumn/winter, so it takes something notable to overcome the mild.

Have a fun weekend and enjoy your New Year’s Eve if you are celebrating. Thanks for reading during 2023.…

One fine Boxing Day, but then the wind and rain is back – with the jetstream starting to track further south. More profound wintry changes down the line to come, perhaps.

Thanks to Jonathan for the photograph.

Boxing Day starts sunny. High cloud will build during the morning, and gradually this will thicken, making things hazy – but it remains bright and pleasant. Cooler than of late, 9’C. Some outbreaks of rain later this evening and overnight – though the more persistent and heavy rain will be further north – breezy too. Down to around 6’C for a time but becoming milder later in the night.

So the general picture for Wednesday sees low pressure arriving, on a more southerly track of the jetstream.

A cloudy start for Wednesday, some little bits of light rain but mostly dry. During the afternoon, showery rain spreads east – some heavy, and the winds become strong and gusty too once more. 12’C. Dry in the evening for a time, though a heavy shower or two passing through late evening – then likely dry overnight. Remaining windy and down to around 8’C.

Thursday remains windy. Some sunny spells at times, but also some heavy, squally kind of showers passing through – most places catching at least a couple but a small chance of missing them all. Around 11’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though tending to be more cloud later, down to around 6’C.

More in the way of cloud for Friday, though some sunny spells likely at times. Some showers likely, or perhaps showery rain but quite some uncertainty on this aspect, in terms of timing, intensity and frequency of showers. Around 8’C and still quite windy. Further showers possible overnight.

Saturday looks quite uncertain though the broad pattern is waiting for the next low pressure system to arrive – maybe it arrives in the afternoon bringing rain, maybe it arrives in the evening/overnight but there are showers beforehand.

New Year’s Eve looks windy, with rain clearing to showers – again the uncertainty on timing.

Into the start of 2024 and it looks like further low pressure systems will head our way, but tracking further south than usual due to the jetstream being further south than usual. This means colder air can filter down and perhaps there could be some sleet/snow mixed in (ie rain turning to sleet/snow, etc) – low chances but possible. Though also possible that they go further south of the UK, and we’ll be cold with overnight frosts instead.

Quite a lot of uncertainty for January, but higher chances of notably cold spells than normal – not only do we have a possible SSW event which could impact our weather later in the month, we also have a disrupted polar vortex and various other background signals, both short and long-term that favour colder weather. It’s a bit too far out still, but the second week of January certainty has possibilities in terms of cold conditions.

Enjoy your Boxing Day – next full forecast (with a bit more research!) should be on Thursday.…

It’s the last forecast before Christmas and it isn’t very interesting – broadly speaking, mild and windy with only bits of rain – becoming cooler and more unsettled after Christmas.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

So tonight will be cloudy and fairly windy, the odd splash of light rain at times. The rain a bit more persistent later in the night, but still light/moderate. Down to around 8’C.

The general set-up sees a large area of low pressure to our south-west – with the jetstream fairly strong to our north, and hence the windy and mild weather.

Friday starts cloudy – some bits of light rain but this will fade. Mostly it stays cloudy, and windy, but there may be a bit of brightness at times. Around 11’C. Cloudy and fairly windy overnight, perhaps a bit of drizzle, down to around 7’C.

Saturday will be cloudy and fairly windy, perhaps a bit of light rain or drizzle at times too. Around 11’C, maybe 12’C. Cloudy and windy overnight, a weak weather front will bring something in the way of showery rain from late evening onwards – mostly light/moderate so amounts minimal. Down to around 9’C.

Christmas Eve will be cloud and windy – some notably strong gusts at times. Some bits and pieces of mostly light rain around at times. Mild, 13’C. Cloudy with outbreaks of mostly light rain overnight, still windy but nothing to stop Santa, still around 12’C.

Christmas Day will see outbreaks of rain at some point – though some uncertainty on timing. It could be morning, it could be on and off all day, it could be evening, or it could be morning and evening. The rain generally light to moderate. Quite windy and still mild at around 13’C.

Uncertainty certainly increasing by Boxing Day, but the more likely outcome is for a bright, perhaps sunny day (remember that stuff?) but cooler, around 8’C. Some uncertainty as to when the next low pressure system arrives – perhaps later on Boxing Day, but more likely overnight or the day after.

Wednesday and Thursday, potentially wet and windy, but a lot of uncertainty as to the track of this low pressure and how it will develop in general. It could even be a named storm, with some disruption – so worth keeping an eye on if you have travel plans, as I do.

Most likely it stays unsettled over the New Year and into the start of 2024. Temperatures generally around average, but some colder weather possible. Cold enough for snow is unlikely, but cannot be totally ruled out.

Looking further ahead, there are rumblings of a possible sudden stratospheric warming event for the beginning of January – and such events significantly increase the chance of (but far from promise) notable cold spells 2-4 weeks following, such as the Beast From The East event in 2018, which was a fairly perfect response.

It’s a long way from being an event in the stratosphere, let alone having any impacts on the troposphere, where we live. If, and it is a big if, it is going to have wintry consequences for us, then this would be mid-late January onwards, give or take.

That’s not to say that cold spells cannot happen before then, or if the SSW doesn’t occur – certainly short cold spells could happen in the first half of January, but the main theme for the first half of January looks like rain and wind.

That’ll do you.

I wish you all a very merry Christmas, and if you don’t celebrate Christmas, then enjoy the extra time off work. And if you don’t celebrate Christmas and have to work bank holidays then maybe, erm, enjoy the wind.

I don’t know when the next forecast will be but I’ll find time at some point, even if for a short update.…