Mild and dry for a while…colder in time for Christmas? Maybe. And the wind is a feature too.

Thanks to Lene for the photograph…though not sure I can offer you much sunshine.

Tonight sees some cloud, and some clear spells – down to roughly around 3’C for most, but quite give and take as it will depend on how much in the way of clear spells – some spots perhaps just about getting a frost.

So the general picture sees a large area of high pressure to our south-west – starting to suck up much milder air but also a lot of cloud – and this high pressure in this kind of position until Monday.

Friday sees hazy sunshine for most of the day – sometimes the cloud perhaps thickening up to blot out the hazy sunshine, and becoming a little breezy later. Around 7’C, maybe 8’C – mild air not yet here. Fairly clear skies to start the night, though a layer of high cloud remains – cloud tending to thicken as the night goes on. Down to around 3’C, again pretty give or take depending on cloud amounts – so a small chance of a frost in some locations.

Saturday will be mostly cloudy – some occasional bits of sunshine, but mostly cloudy. Breezy and mild, around 11’C. Likely cloudy for most of the night, but some clear spells possible. Down to around 7’C and windy.

Sunday has more scope for sunshine though there will be cloudy periods, and when sunny, the sun may be hazy at times. Mild and quite windy, around 11’C. Plenty of cloud overnight, though some clear spells at times, more so earlier in the night. Down to around 6’C.

Monday looks cloudy once more – perhaps a spot of drizzle at times as a weak weather front edges closer. Still quite windy and around 12’C. The weak weather front continues to sink south overnight, more cloud and some light rain – perhaps something more persistent. Around 11’C.

Tuesday likely starts with outbreaks of rain – some uncertainty over this, and also when it will clear, but assuming it clears during daylight, then it will be followed by sunny spells and something cooler. Reaching around 12’C though temperatures dropping once the sunnier weather arrives. Still breezy. Fairly cloudy and fairly windy overnight, down to around 4’C.

By Wednesday our high pressure is now further west – and the flow gradually turns more north-westerly.

Details uncertain for Wednesday – likely windy, but otherwise sunshine/cloud amounts uncertain, there is a possibility of some showery rain. Around 9’C.

Likewise details uncertain for Thursday, Friday and into next weekend – but the north-westerly flow should bring some rain at some point, and will likely be windy, perhaps strong winds – with a chance of a notable storm system bringing disruption, say around a 25% chance. It definitely needs watching if you have travel plans later next week (as I do).

This may be followed by 1-2 days of colder weather, perhaps a wintry shower – though the form horse looks like a return of milder weather in time for Christmas Day.

A White Christmas isn’t impossible, but remains just a 5% chance.

Have a good weekend.…

Back to unsettled for a while, though probably dry by next weekend.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

Not too bad a day today for December, decent spells of sunshine, some cloud – more so in the afternoon and becoming breezy. 11’C – a small chance of a passing shower but more likely dry. Clear skies at first overnight but clouding over with showery rain spreading up from the south-west in the early hours. Down to around 6’C.

So the general picture for Saturday sees a large low pressure system far west over the Atlantic, a smaller one closer to the UK, being driven along on a powerful jetstream – powerful enough to push the high pressure block to the east away.

A wet morning, some heavy bursts mixed in, but dry by late morning, lunchtime at the latest. Sunny for the afternoon, a little cloud and an outside chance of a shower. More notable will be the wind – windy all day with some notably strong gusts – not far from gale force in the evening, so the odd bit of damage/disruption possible. Mild, 12’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, the wind slowly easing, down to around 5’C.

Sunday starts sunny, but it will quickly cloud over with around 3 or so hours of heavy rain over the lunchtime period, and then brighter skies to end the day. Breezy and fairly mild, around 11’C in the afternoon. Variable cloud overnight, a stray shower not impossible in the breeze, down to around 7’C.

A ridge of high pressure for Monday will lead to sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud during the day – around 11’C. Clear spells at first overnight though it looks like a band of heavy/very heavy showers will cross later in the night – some uncertainty on this development.

Low pressure over the country on Tuesday will mean heavy showers are likely – some sunny spells in between. Around 12’C. Showers possible overnight.

On Wednesday, low pressure should be over the south-east of the country – drawing in somewhat colder air from the north-east. Generally kind of cloudy, with some showery bits of rain – but fairly limited amounts. Around 7’C and feeling cooler.

By Thursday we should see the Azores high nudging in, so bringing something more settled – longer spells of dry weather. Uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts at this stage – not impossible there is still a weak weather front to clear on Thursday still. Temperatures more likely around 8’C.

Friday and over the weekend are likely dry – uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts at this stage. Fog and overnight frost possible, perhaps the former more so, though details will take a few more days to resolve.

Enjoy your weekend…I better do some work.…

The cold air relents and the Atlantic wins – expect more wind and rain, and it to gradually become milder. For a while.

Thanks to Clare for the photograph.

We start Tuesday with low pressure slowly easing away – struggling to move far into the continent due to the high pressure block to the east, with the next low pressure systems waiting to the west.

It starts cloudy and damp, with bits and pieces of mostly light rain/drizzle. This gradually fades during the day, and the cloud will break to allow a bit of sunshine at times this afternoon. Still fairly chilly at 6’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, a few fog patches forming, and a frost for most – generally down to around -2’C, give or take.

Wednesday starts frosty for most, foggy for some – the fog becoming more extensive for a time before slowly fading away – most places should see some hazy sunshine in the afternoon. Reaching around 4’C, maybe 5’C – though if fog lingers into the afternoon (it should clear) then a little lower. Cloud gradually thickening overnight, with patchy rain from late evening onwards – and becoming quite windy. Around 5’C.

Thursday will be cloudy with patchy rain, until a more organised band of heavy rain crosses in the afternoon. Windy too, around 7’C. Variable cloud overnight, a stray shower possible – around 8’C.

Low pressure over England for Friday which will bring quite a lot of cloud and some showers – perhaps merging into longer spells of rain. Breezy but milder, 10’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 7’C.

Saturday sees the next weather front cross, bringing another spell of rain – possibly heavy though some uncertainty as to this aspect. Mild and breezy, 12’C.

Sunday, Monday and Tuesday all likely to see rain/showers at some point – though timing uncertain, hence me grouping them together! Generally mild and windy at times.

More likely staying fairly changeable until around Christmas, though short colder and drier spells should be mixed in – the general theme mostly should be often unsettled and fairly mild.

I will do the winter forecast when I get time…not sure when that will be! This week I hope.…

A cold start to winter but gradually, if erratically, becoming milder – and at least somewhat wetter. There are still some small chances of snow to contend with, though more likely it will be all rain.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure to our north-west, with the jetstream fairly fragmented, but a notable streak to our south, with a low pressure system which wasn’t far away from bringing us some snow today – 50 miles further north and we probably would have had at least some light snow.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, down to around -2’C with a frost. Fog forming in places towards dawn.

Friday starts sunny in places, but foggy in other places. Those with the fog may find it takes quite some time to clear – but otherwise it will be a mostly sunny day, with a bit of cloud and a small chance of a wintry shower. Cold, 4’C at best. Clear skies overnight for a while but fog forming widely. Down to around -4’C – should you have a sheltered location and there is no fog, then it could easily be a fair bit lower.

Saturday starts foggy for most, and will likely take at least lunchtime for the fog/low cloud to lift – once it does (assuming it does in your location) then there will be sunny spells. Cold, 3’C at best – though if the fog/low cloud doesn’t clear then maybe no higher than 0’C. In the evening/overnight a little feature looks like bringing some precipitation for a couple of hours, across the south of England. More likely rain or a wintry mix – but possible it falls as snow and settles. One to watch – if I have time, I’ll update nearer the time but my life is kinda hectic right now, so do check with the Met Office nearer the time if interested! Though it could just be one of those too marginal situations to call even a few hours in advance.

Not especially high confidence for Sunday, but broadly speaking cloudy and cold is the more likely outcome, with a small chance of some showery rain. Around 3’C. Rain spreading up from the south-west overnight – as it hits the cold air there’s a chance that there could be some form of wintry mix to start, but more likely it is rain. Around 3’C overnight.

We start next week with colder air still in place, but low pressure trying to push in from the south-west.

Outbreaks of what should be rain on Monday – some uncertainty on details though generally quite patchy light/moderate rain is more likely, and probably quite windy. Temperatures will depend on how far north the low pressure system gets, somewhere between 3’C and 7’C.

And that’s about as far as I can go right now.

Next week will be a battle between an irrepressible force and an immovable block – the former being a resurgent Atlantic with a much stronger jetstream, the latter being the high pressure blocking to our north-east.

It should become at least a bit milder for a while though whether it will be wet is uncertain – it’s possible that Monday’s low gets stuck and slowly fades over the days after, and other low pressure systems cannot quite make it due to the block to the north-east.

On the flip side, it is possible that we do end up in a succession of low pressure systems and have a wet week.

But with the high pressure block lurking to our north-east, and some really cold air over Scandinavia – it’s plausible that at some point the cold air could make another attempt to head our way.

An interesting week ahead.…

A fairly cold week ahead with mixed weather, some sunshine, some frost, some rain and perhaps even some snow. Certainly our first chance of snow, of the season, anyway. Chance is emphasised.

Thanks to Carly for the photograph – I thought I better use a contributor’s sunrise seeing as I’ve used my own from a different country!

As a general overview, we start with low pressure over the southern half of the country, with much colder weather to the north-east over Scandinavia – the jetstream is much weaker once more, and tracking further south than normal.

Today will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain or drizzle, more patchy at first, somewhat more persistent and moderate from late morning into the afternoon. A bit milder this morning, around 9’C, but feeling colder later as the breeze picks up and swings to the north-east. Fairly cloudy overnight, the odd shower in the breeze possible, down to around 3’C.

Some cloud at times on Tuesday but generally it will be rather sunny, though on the cold side at around 6’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight and a frost for most, down to around -1’C, give or take.

Wednesday will be a cold but mostly sunny day. A bit of cloud around. Reaching around 4’C, maybe 5’C. Clear skies with a frost, at least at first overnight – more uncertainty later as low pressure approaches. Down to around -2’C but give or take a couple.

Thursday is a tricky day – low pressure will be approaching from the west but the track is uncertain. I think the somewhat more likely outcome is for it to go over northern France, and in which case we’ll stay dry but cloudy, perhaps hazy sunshine.

However if this is a bit further north, then it would bring outbreaks of rain which could turn to snow. Very much one to watch this as it could be disruptive if it occurs, though at the moment is around a 25% chance.

Either way, cold at around 4’C, possibly windy. Overnight also depends on what the low pressure did – cold, possibly frosty, possibly a wintry shower.

Friday looks cold in a fairly raw north-easterly wind.

Low pressure to the south-east/east could bring a wintry shower or two, but otherwise most likely sunny but cold, around 4’C. Likely frosty overnight.

Saturday more likely cold but sunny, with temperatures around 4’C.

Sunday perhaps starts to see an attempt at returning to our more usual westerly flow, though when a cold block gets established, it often needs more than one attempt.

So maybe something a tad milder with some showery rain for Sunday but very low confidence on conditions. Perhaps this brings in milder air for next week, perhaps we have to wait a few more days.

Quite a bit of uncertainty and a fairly interesting output synoptically – I cannot say I expected a full week of colder conditions when I mentioned around 10 days ago that something colder was possible towards the end of the month – I didn’t think the background signals supported it, but here we are. I’ll update during the week if the snow chance increases for Thursday…do keep an eye on official forecasts too (and not spammy websites telling you that 8 metres of snow is guaranteed at 1:14pm).…

I’m finally flying back to England tomorrow, so am I bringing the warmer weather with me? Absolutely the opposite – colder air is going to spread down from the north. A wintry surprise is not out of the question in such a set-up.

No photographs from anyone, so you’ll have to cope with one of my sunrise photos and pretend it is really the banks of the River Thames.

Today will generally be cloudy – some brightness at first and a little hazy sunshine, the odd spot of light rain possible at times this afternoon. Reaching around 11’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, again the odd bit of light rain/drizzle possible, and around 10’C.

High pressure in control for Thursday – some sunny spells but quite a fair amount of cloud too. A bit milder, around 12’C or so. Becoming breezy later in the day. A weak weather front slips south overnight, bringing an hour or two of light/moderate rain roughly around midnight, give or take, then clearer to follow, down to around 7’C.

For Friday we see high pressure to the west of Ireland, and a colder, more northerly flow becoming established.

Some cloud around at times, especially at first but generally rather sunny. Feeling colder, reaching around 8’C in a northerly-ish wind. Welcome back, James. Clear skies overnight and a frost probable, down to around 0’C – only uncertainty is it might be a tad too breezy for a frost.

Saturday will be sunny but cold – just 5’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, a frost again probable – down to around 0’C, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see it down to -4’C in places – again a bit of uncertainty, this time on cloud amounts.

Sunday is a bit more uncertain. The more likely outcome sees it remaining mostly sunny, perhaps hazy sunshine and on the cold side – somewhere around 6’C. However, some models do bring a decaying low pressure system to our west, which could instead bring some cloud and patchy rain – if so, more likely afternoon/evening.

Monday probably sees this decaying low pressure close by – details uncertain but likely a bit milder, on the cloudy side and perhaps some patchy rain.

I’m at a loss as to where we go from there. It’s very possible that cold air will try to push down again from the north, or perhaps more likely north-east/east – though at the same time, weaker low pressure systems will try to push in from the west. Where these two air masses meet, then wintry surprises could be possible – but most likely any precipitation will be rain.

I wouldn’t rule out a return to milder westerly flows outright, nor would I rule out a full-on cold easterly. But some kind of messy middle ground looks more likely, with temperatures on the cold side, and generally a mixture of expected weather types for late November.

Not sure when the next forecast will be, I guess maybe on Wednesday. Enjoy the, erm, colder weather.…

Some more showers in the next couple of days but then settling down for a short while.

Thanks to Zara for the photograph.

The general picture sees low pressure crossing the UK, though a ridge of high pressure is waiting to our west.

Today sees some sunny spells to start, though there will be quite a lot of cloud during the day, some occasional brightness, and a few showers too. Mild but windy, 13’C. Fairly clear skies for most of the night, though cloudier with a cluster of showers before dawn. Down to around 8’C.

Any early showers will clear to sunny spells on Sunday morning, though once again it will become rather cloudy, with the odd shower/bits of light rain. Around 12’C and breezy. Fairly cloudy overnight with some showers, down to around 9’C.

Tuesday sees the low pressure system drift into the continent but it will leave a lot of cloud behind, the odd spot of light rain – with a little brightness later in the day. Around 10’C, maybe 11’C. Fairly cloudy overnight though the cloud thinning at times – so it could get quite chilly, say down to around 3’C, though a bit of uncertainty on that.

Wednesday looks fairly cloudy but the cloud may thin at times to allow a bit of hazy sunshine. Around 11’C and breezy. Quite cloudy overnight, though some clear spells, down to around 8’C.

High pressure will be nudging in for Thursday.

This should allow for more in the way of sunny spells, though still plenty of cloud – especially around the middle part of the day. A tad milder, 12’C. A mixture of cloud and clear spells overnight, down to around 7’C.

Fairly low confidence but it looks more likely that by Friday, high pressure orientates itself to allow somewhat colder air to spread down from the north or north-west.

Details pretty uncertain, generally a changeable feel seems more likely, with some bright, sunny and possible quite cold days, mixed with some cloudier and more showery days. A wintry surprise wouldn’t be impossible but a small chance at best, as it stands. Overnight frosts possible too.

Not sure when the next forecast will be…maybe Wednesday, we’ll see! Enjoy the rest of your weekend…I’m off to my next Airbnb, and assumedly final one.…