It’s the first day of autumn so of course it is time to talk about hot sunshine, at least partly thanks to Hurricane Franklin.

Thanks to Kathryn for the photograph.

Today starts cloudy with scattered heavy showers – an overhang of yesterday’s weather fronts. Gradually the cloud will break to allow for sunny spells, though also there will be a scattering of heavy showers breaking out once more. A tendency for the sun to be hazier later in the day too. Warm, we might squeeze 23’C. High cloud at first overnight, more in the way of low cloud and some mist/fog patches towards dawn. Down to around 14’C.

By Saturday we start to see the Azores High stretch up over the UK – helped along by Hurricane Franklin further to the west.

It will start cloudy, mist/fog patches in some places. Gradually it will burn away from around mid/late morning to leave sunny spells and fair-weather cloud for the rest of the day. A small chance of a shower. Warm, 23’C, maybe 24’C. Fairly clear skies for much of the night, though some low cloud and mist/fog patches developing by dawn. Down to around 11’C.

Sunday again starts with low cloud, mist/fog patches for most areas, but it will quickly lift into long sunny spells, with just a scattering of clouds and a bit of high cloud. Very warm, 25’C, maybe 26’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, some patches of low cloud/mist/fog forming by dawn, down to around 12’C.

By Monday our air source becomes France/Spain, so temperatures tick up. Early low cloud/mist/fog patches will quickly clear to long spells of sunshine. Quite hot, 27’C, maybe a shade more. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday sees long spells of sunshine, with a little high cloud at most. Fairly hot, around 27’C or so. Mostly clear skies for most of the night, but a chance of some patches of low cloud/mist/fog by dawn. Down to around 14’C.

By Wednesday we have pretty much the perfect set-up for heat – low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal, high pressure to the east, a southerly breeze. Of course, it is September, the sun is weaker, the day is shorter – so the potential isn’t there for anything too hot. And our wet last two months have an impact too from the soil moisture profile and cooler seas around us.

So more sunshine for Wednesday, though perhaps a bit hazier than it has been with more in the way of high/mid-level cloud. Temperatures somewhere in the range of 27’C to 30’C. A warmer night probable, due to the high/mid-level cloud, say around 17’C.

Thursday probably keeps the hot conditions, with high/mid-level cloud making it hazy. Temperatures more likely in the range of 28’C to 32’C. An outside chance of a shower. A warm night probable.

Confidence reduces by Friday, as is fairly usual a week away, but the more likely outcome keeps the hot sunny weather, with temperatures in the range of 27’C to 31’C.

So at some point I’d expect an attempt at a breakdown, whether that be a westerly flow, or thundery showers moving up from the south/south-west, maybe Friday, maybe over the weekend or maybe not until early next week. I’d possibly pin Sunday as the more likely day in a fairly broad range.

Until the breakdown, it will be hot with sunny spells, perhaps hazy. After the breakdown there’s still a fair chance that it will settle down again and remain warm with sunshine at times. But, hurricanes in the western Atlantic can change plans…so always take September mid-range forecasts with even more of a pinch of salt than usual.

Enjoy your weekend, I’ll try to do the autumn forecast during it.…

Fairly nondescript and changeable weather this week, though with signs of high pressure gradually building towards and into the weekend.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Today will be rather cloudy with some occasional brightness. Later in the afternoon a band of showery rain will slowly work its way south-east, continuing into the evening. Often light, but occasionally heavy rain. Around 19’C. Clear skies once the showery rain clears, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday starts with sunny spells. Fair-weather cloud will bubble up with a few scattered showers, say a 30% chance of catching one, perhaps heavy. Reaching around 18’C, maybe 19’C. Clear spells for a while overnight, though cloud gradually thickening as the night goes on. Down to around 12’C – perhaps some light rain/drizzle by dawn.

Thursday sees low pressure spreading rain across the south of the UK, though high pressure lurks to the west and looks like it may later be pushed our way by Hurricane Franklin.

So a mostly cloudy day with rain arriving during the morning, and continuing off and on for much of the day – sometimes light, sometimes quite heavy. Reaching around 16’C, though a bit cooler when raining. Fittingly autumnal for the last day of summer 2023. Quite a lot of cloud overnight, a shower possible, but also some clear spells. Down to around 12’C.

By Friday high pressure is starting to build – and will dissolve the low pressure (for want of a better word). Quite a bit of cloud around, and a chance of heavy showers – though some uncertainty on that chance at the moment. Also some sunny spells and reaching around 21’C – so warmer. Probably clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

For Saturday it looks most likely that high pressure will be building over the UK – though as I mentioned, this relies on the movement of a hurricane so this adds uncertainty. Low pressure won’t be too far to our south – any changes in Franklin’s movement could lead to a showery weekend instead.

But with roughly 80% confidence, lets say both Saturday and Sunday will be dry with some sunny spells and some cloud. Certainly possible that there is more cloud than sun overall, but it will still be reasonably pleasant, and warm at 22’C.

The more likely outcome for next week is that high pressure remains close to the UK, or over the UK, allowing for more warm and often sunny weather, with some cloud from the North Sea possible at times, depending on exact positioning of the high.

Not especially high confidence – with hurricane/ex-hurricane Franklin probably still in the Atlantic somewhere, things could change – and low pressure is likely to be fairly close to our south, so thundery showers could spread up from there.

Not bad. I’ve long accepted autumn…but a bit more warm sunshine will be very welcome!…

The bank holiday weekend is here and it looks…better than it could! Some sunny spells, some cloud, some showers.

I can finally access photographs that are sent via Facebook messenger! Only been broken for months…thanks to Eve for the photograph.

So the general picture for Friday sees a fair weak low pressure system over Scotland, but it has pushed our warmth away.

Sunny spells to start the day but quite a lot of cloud will bubble up, leaving fairly limited sunny spells, and later in the afternoon a couple of scattered showers will trundle over from the west, some heavy and an outside chance of thunder. Around 20’C. Showers gradually fade in the evening, clear spells developing and temperatures down to around 11’C.

Saturday starts with sunny spells, but cloud will bubble up and heavy showers will break out fairly widely. Some places may avoid them, but most likely you’ll catch at least a couple of heavy showers, thunder possible. Probably just squeezing 20’C. Showers fading in the evening, and gradually skies will clear – down to around 10’C.

Sunday starts with sunny spells. Cloud will bubble up with a few showers – though less than on Saturday, and less likely to be heavy. Say a 60% chance of catching one or two showers. Generally more sunshine also, though tending to become somewhat cloudier later in the day. 21’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.

Monday likely starts with sunny spells. Some cloud bubbling up – though the extent of which is uncertain, there is a chance of some more general cloud from a decaying weather front, perhaps even some light rain – but more likely at least some sunny spells remain. Temperatures somewhere between 18’C and 22’C, depending on sunshine amounts. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Details start to become sketchy by Tuesday, though a fairly cloudy day is likely, with some sunny spells possible at times. A weak weather front will give a chance of some patchy rain later in the day – timing TBC. Around 20’C, give or take.

Low pressure close by on Wednesday, but probably not close enough for rain/showers of any note. Again, confidence not especially high, but broadly rather cloudy, some sunny spells, a small chance of showers and somewhere around 20’C.

Things become more interesting and more uncertain on Thursday as low pressure edges closer to the UK – though there is a chance that it may instead slip south towards France/Spain – and this ultimately depends on a hurricane/ex-hurricane in the far west of the Atlantic, and how that interacts with the jetstream, and how that reshapes the Azores high pressure system.

In summary, a greater chance of heavy showers or heavy rain for Thursday, but uncertain.

Too much uncertainty due to the aforementioned ex-hurricane to forecast for next weekend – and also other tropical systems in the Atlantic basin. It’s a wait and see, though generally changeable seems the more likely theme to start September.

Enjoy the bank holiday weekend!…

Some warmth, then some showers with a fair dollop of uncertainty too.

Thanks to Melanie for the photograph.

The general picture for Tuesday sees high pressure to our south, low pressure to our north – the latter will try to sink south later in the week, though it won’t be straight-forward.

For Tuesday, early cloud will gradually break up to leave sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. Reaching close to 25’C, with a little bit of a breeze. Quite a lot of high-level cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday starts bright with sunny spells, perhaps hazy though. Generally it looks a mostly sunny and warm day, some high/mid-level cloud making it hazy at times, and more in the way of cloud later in the day. Very warm, around 25’C. Cloudy at times overnight, particularly in the evening and towards dawn – a small chance of a shower by dawn too. A warm night, no lower than around 17’C.

Thursday is uncertain – a heat low over France will be pushing north-east, stopping the low to our north sinking south (the previous expectation for Thursday), but also brings a risk of some heavy, showery rain pushing into the south of England. Details are uncertain and likely will be until the night before – so if you have plans for Thursday that require no rain, then you’ll have to wait! Around a 50/50 chance as to whether we see heavy, showery rain, or spells of hazy sunshine. Around 20’C if the former, around 25’C if the latter. Likely on the warm side overnight – the risk of heavy, showery rain is still there, say a 30% chance.

On Friday, we then see the low pressure to our north gradually move south-east, and bring something less warm.

It’s plausible, though unlikely, that there is still a hangover of cloud and showery rain from the night before – a 10% chance tops. Otherwise we are looking at sunny spells, with quite a lot of cloud bubbling up – an afternoon shower cannot be ruled out. Less warm, 21’C or so. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Saturday sees sunny spells and showers. There should be reasonable amounts of sunshine, but around a 70% chance of catching at least a couple of showers, which could be heavy with a small chance of thunder. Around 20’C in a northerly breeze. Clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Sunday is a bit uncertain again – broadly I think it will balance out into a bit of a nothing day – quite a bit of cloud, some sunshine, a chance of a shower – though the uncertain bit is that there may be a weather front mixed in bringing some more general cloud and patchy rain at some point. Reaching around 20’C and breezy.

Bank Holiday Monday is uncertain – it could be cloudy with some rain, it could be warm with sunny spells – or some blend in between. I neither expect glorious or a washout…something kind of middling.

Next weekend looks fairly unsettled with showers at times, and probably a low pressure bringing general wind/rain on one day.

However, plenty of uncertainty as there will likely be ex-hurricanes/tropical storms in the Atlantic, how they behave can affect our weather downstream, so, as usual for this time of year, conditions in September are subject to more uncertainty than at other times of the year.…

Something much closer to summer in the forecast, even if low pressure will be close by.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Tuesday starts with sunny spells. Quite a bit of fair-weather cloud will bubble up during the morning – likely more cloud than sun roughly over the lunchtime period, with more sunshine later in the day. A small chance of a fairly light shower. Warm, 23’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday sees a weak ridge of high pressure over the UK.

Sunny spells for Wednesday, some fair-weather cloud bubbling up and a small chance of a light/moderate shower, but otherwise a pleasant day and very warm – reaching around 25’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Sunny spells again for Thursday, some fair-weather cloud bubbling up and perhaps a layer of high/mid-level cloud in the afternoon for a time, making things hazier. Very warm, we should reach around 25’C. Cloud gradually thickening overnight, with a chance of some heavy showers towards dawn, perhaps thundery, and a warm night – no lower than 17’C.

By Friday the general picture sees high pressure to our north-east, and a deepening area of low pressure to our west – though unlike recently, the low pressure isn’t going to cross the UK – it will head north instead.

So Friday likely starts with heavy showers, perhaps very heavy and thundery – though also I stress a bit of uncertainty in how widespread the showers are – and the initial showers possibly fade away. A drier gap, perhaps some sunshine and if so, then 28’C is possible, but without any sunshine then closer to 23’C – though feeling warm and humid. Then later in the day, anyway from late afternoon to late evening, a further spell of heavy/very heavy rain develops and spreads north-east – a chance of some really notable downpours, and a small chance of thunderstorms embedded. I stress details on timing and intensity are uncertain at this stage, and will be until the day before. A warm night once the rain clears, down to around 16’C or so.

Saturday sees sunny spells. Seriously. On a Saturday. Sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud, a small chance of a shower and it will be very warm – somewhere between 24’C and 26’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though a chance of some mist and fog in more sheltered spots, down to around 14’C.

Sunday sees high pressure build from the south – some sunny spells, some cloud – I cannot rule out a shower but otherwise more pleasant weather. Very warm, somewhere between 24’C and 27’C. Down to around 14’C overnight – a small chance of mist/fog in more sheltered spots.

The more likely outcome for Monday looks sunny and quite possibly on the hot side, temperatures somewhere between 24’C and 30’C. An outside chance of thundery rain or thunderstorms instead.

Tuesday becomes more uncertain – the chance of thundery rain or thunderstorms is higher, perhaps we may tap into some continental heat to bring a proper hot day – or maybe the Atlantic pushes the hot air east. Quite uncertain.

Given that I’ve got to the “well it could be anything” stage, I’ll stop here.

Generally for next week, once the early heat clears then I still expect it to be broadly warm/very warm, and changeable – though dry days should outnumber wet/showery days.

Low confidence for the bank holiday weekend – I’m marginally more hopefully for drier and warmer weather at the beginning of the weekend than the end, as there is a signal for a more unsettled spell roughly at the end of August/beginning of September.

Have a good week.…

A new weekend, a new low pressure system, but more a case of sunshine and showers. And perhaps there might be something hot around the corner…

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

Friday starts cloudy as a weak weather front pushes away our brief bit of summer. The cloud will break at times and generally the afternoon will be sunnier, though still possibly cloudy at times, and a moderate chance of a shower, say a 30% chance. Still very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C and becoming breezy. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

Saturday sees our next low pressure system arrived, though crossing further north this time, over Scotland.

Plenty of cloud on Saturday but some sunny spells also, and a fair scattering of showers – some heavy, perhaps a rumble of thunder. Around an 80% chance of catching at least a couple of showers. Around 22’C and notably breezy. Showers quickly fading in the evening, then dry overnight though fairly cloudy. Down to around 14’C.

Fewer showers on Sunday, say a 30% chance of catching one or two, but plenty of fair-weather cloudy and also some high cloud making the sunny spells hazy at times. Warm, 23’C. Some uncertainty on details overnight, but it looks like an area of showery rain will develop and spread north-east in the latter part of the night. Around 16’C.

The uncertainty continues into Monday, but more likely it is cloudy with some showery rain – perhaps heavy at times. It probably clears into sunny spells at some point in the afternoon – though uncertain. Assuming it clears to sunny spells, then we’ll reach around 22’C, otherwise 18’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

There’s nothing really driving our weather at this point – the jetstream has really faded, and there are no particularly notable areas of high or low pressure close by.

Tuesday looks reasonable, a fair amount of cloud bubbling up, some sunny spells, a 30% or so chance of a shower. Warm, around 23’C. Likely clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday starts sunny, a fair amount of fair-weather cloud bubbling up for the middle part of the day, then sunshine increasing later. Very warm, around 24’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

By Thursday we start to see high pressure strengthen to our east/north-east, with some low pressure to our west.

Still some fair-weather cloud bubbling up, but plenty of sunshine and very warm, reaching around 25’C or so – maybe a tad more.

By Friday and into next weekend, the more likely outcome is that we start to draw winds from the south/south-east – and it becomes hot. Not a done deal, certainly plausible that low pressure is over the UK rather than to our west – but reasonably high confidence for a week away. Call it a 75% chance of becoming hot.

This will mean temperatures into the high 20’s – perhaps low 30’s with perfect alignment, and good spells of sunshine – though also there will be a risk of thundery downpours at some point during the weekend. Expect warm nights too, and some humidity.

The next week could start hot, and more likely stays warm or very warm – but also more likely changeable, some sunny days, but also some showery/wet days very possible, perhaps with thundery downpours.

Weak signals that the end of August and beginning of September return to something more unsettled.

Have a good weekend – hopefully there’s at least some joy there for those who miss the summer (as I do…bar the wasps).…

One hot day coming up. Otherwise fair, with some showers. Well, it is an improvement (unless you’ve really enjoyed the wet July).

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Today will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of mostly lightish rain or drizzle, as an underdeveloped weather system crosses the south of the UK. The odd heavier burst possible, but generally rainfall totals low. Some brightness at times, mostly in the morning. Reaching around 17’C. Cloud and patchy rain in the evening, this gradually fading and breaking up to leave some clear spells. Down to around 12’C.

By Wednesday we see high pressure start to push up from the south – with the low pressure to the west (for the coming weekend) acting as a bit of a heat pump, though nothing like 2022’s heat pump lows.

Wednesday will be a bright day with hazy sunshine – it looks like there will always be some amount of high/mid-level so clear blue skies unlikely, perhaps near the end of the day. Warm, 23’C or so. Milder overnight with some clear spells – though also some cloud. An outside chance of some mist/fog forming in places towards dawn. Around 15’C.

Thursday sees good spells of sunshine! Perhaps some low cloud at first, but if so it will lift fairly quickly, and some high cloud at times, but broadly the most summer-like day for some weeks. Quite hot, 26’C, maybe 27’C. Clear spells for much of the night, though more cloud towards dawn and perhaps a shower, as a weather front approaches. A warmer night, 17’C.

Friday sees a weak weather front crossing – therefore much more cloud though still some brightness, a bit of showery rain – with sunny spells following later in the day. Very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C. Some clear spells, some cloud overnight – down to around 15’C. There is a small chance of importing overnight thundery downpours from France – 10% chance.

A new Saturday – a new low pressure system, though this time tracking further north across Scotland.

Sunny spells and scattered showers is the theme. More likely you catch at least a couple of showers during the day, and they could be heavy, a small chance of a rumble of thunder – though perhaps you miss them all. Reaching around 22’C and breezy. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 14’C.

More of the same for Sunday – sunny spells and scattered showers, more likely you catch at least a couple of showers but maybe you get lucky and miss them all. Showers could be heavy, a small chance of a rumble of thunder. Around 21’C and breezy. Variable amounts of cloud overnight, down to around 12’C.

Monday sees fewer showers around, still a chance of catching one or two, otherwise sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Around 21’C.

Generally next week looks unremarkable. The more likely outcome is that low pressure remains fairly close by, so some showers possible, but also some sunny spells and generally fairly warm. It could be worse. It has been worse.

Some signals for a warmer spell after mid-month, though whether it is another 1-day wonder or something slightly longer is too early to speculate on. Though generally, the theme for August should remain changeable – so even a few warmer, sunnier days, if they happen, should revert to showers shortly after.

No strong signals for September – other than mixed.

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