Welcome back, summer.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Friday starts with a lot of high/mid-level cloud – bright but the sun only vaguely poking through. Gradually the cloud will thin and break, to bring a reasonably sunny day, if a bit hazy at times. Warm (for the time of year), 20’C. A mixture of clear spells and cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

So the general set-up into the weekend sees high pressure over Spain/France pushing up into the UK, with a really exceptional level of warmth in the air mass – how many times have we seen this in the last 2-3 years?

Also of note, and slight effect, is a notable colder plunge into Scandinavia – to our east, but will have a slight moderating effect on our temperatures this weekend.

So Saturday sees long spells of sunshine. There will be some high cloud around, more notably in the afternoon which will make things hazy, and limit temperatures a tad below previous expectations – but still reaching around 23’C, give or take, which is very warm for the time of year. Just 8’C in Glasgow where the colder air will reach. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Sunday again sees long spells of sunshine, but there will again be plenty of high cloud around making it hazy at times – more notably in the morning. Warm again, reaching around 22’C, maybe 23’C. Quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud at times overnight, so a bit milder, 14’C.

Monday sees long spells of hazy sunshine – the cloud generally a bit thicker than the last two days, but bright with hazy sunshine will be the theme. Warm again, reaching around 22’C. The high/mid-level cloud remains overnight, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday remains in the warm air mass, still likely a covering of high/mid-level cloud so hazy sunshine, but also perhaps a tad warmer, say around 24’C. The high/mid-level cloud remains overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday looks like the goodbye summer day – uncertain on the timeline but the warmth should hang on with some hazy sunshine in the morning, a band of potentially heavy rain spreading down from the north-west later in the day/evening – maybe overnight. As I said, timeline uncertain. Reaching somewhere between 18’C and 22’C, depending on when the rain arrives.

By Thursday, the somewhat colder air mass to the north-west will more likely spread down.

It’s not certain – it isn’t even impossible that the warmth hangs on another day, but more likely we are looking at sunny spells, some cloud, a small chance of a shower and temperatures somewhere between 13’C and 16’C. A chilly night likely – down to roughly 5’C, though very give and take at this stage.

That’s about as far as I can go – likely more autumnal in terms of temperature next weekend, it should be around the 13’C to 16’C range – but whether it is wet, or sunny, is highly uncertain. It isn’t impossible that the relative warmth returns (or never left) but is only around a 10% chance.

There is a fairly strong signal for the week after to be unsettled, wet and windy – and again a signal for something drier and milder (semi-warm?) for later in the month.

Enjoy your weekend…I have lots of boxes to pack for an upcoming house move…which would be very exciting if I knew where I was moving to. Maybe I’ll just have another holiday to Spain.…

Some rain today but high pressure building from tomorrow – and probably exceptionally warm for the time of year by the weekend. Clearly we had enough autumn in July.

Thanks to Mel for the photograph.

A tricky forecast for today, it starts cloudy and dull, perhaps a splash of light rain. A weather front will develop in situ, likely a bit further north than here but we’ll still get some showery rain this afternoon and into the evening. However, the complex part is that some thundery downpours will probably also develop to the south of the main weather front, ie over our area – potentially torrential with at least some thunder/lightning, but whether they are widespread, or just very localised with many places missing them, is uncertain. Reaching around 20’C – still unseasonably warm, and some hazy sunshine possible at times this afternoon, in between whatever bits of showery rain/thundery downpours we have. Cloudy with occasionally bits of showery rain overnight, down to around 13’C.

So the warmth is pushed away for Tuesday, but high pressure will be close by, ready to build.

Any early cloud will clear quickly, to leave sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. A couple of scattered heavy showers will develop during the morning, around a 50% chance of catching one, possibly with a rumble of thunder. During the afternoon, these fade, still a small chance of a light shower, but otherwise fair with sunny spells and some cloud. A fresher feel and rather breezy, but still reaching 18’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure start to build – quite a bit of cloud around, and sunshine more of the hazy variety. Reaching around 17’C and breezy. Fairly clear skies overnight though generally with some high cloud, down to around 9’C.

Thursday looks rather cloudy, though it should be bright, and thinning enough for some weak hazy sunshine at times. Around 17’C, maybe 18’C. Weather fronts will pass close to our north overnight, there may be some patchy rain but uncertain – 60/40 it stays dry. Otherwise cloudy and around 11’C.

On Friday, high pressure makes more of a move north. We likely keep a veil of high/mid-level cloud, though as the day goes on the more this should thin, perhaps break – so hazy sunshine is the more likely outcome, but perhaps some clear skies later. Warm, 20’C, maybe 21’C. A mild night, around 14’C.

By Saturday, high pressure is likely (not 100% certain but good enough for now) to be pushing an exceptionally warm air mass north.

Likely sunny, perhaps some high cloud around, and temperatures reaching a very warm 25’C, perhaps a tad more. Down to around 15’C overnight.

Sunday should be very similar, long spells of sunshine, a bit of high cloud perhaps, and reaching somewhere in the range of 24’C to 26’C.

Monday likely remains on the warm side, though confidence is reducing.

Not especially high confidence, but a suggestion that it cools down later next week with a more northerly or north-westerly flow – and it will feel more like autumn.

Weak signals for something more changeable through mid-month with more in the way of rain or showers, and an ongoing signal for the second half of the month to be warmer than normal overall (though I’m not really pushing the boat out there!).…

Warmer than normal with high pressure trying to take control – though not having its own way entirely.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

So the general picture for today sees Storm Agnes moving in – not really a story for us down here, the warmth from the continent is more notable.

It will be mostly cloudy for us today, though some bright spells are possible as the cloud should be quite thin at times. The bulk of the rain stays to our north-west, but the odd showery bit is possible – and probable during the evening. Becoming windy, though nothing unusual for us, and reaching around 21’C. A mixture of clear spells and cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

Thursday will be fairly cloudy, but the cloud will be thin enough to allow for hazy sunshine. Temperatures a bit lower, around 18’C, maybe 19’C. Still breezy. Cloudy with some showery rain in the evening and overnight, a fairly warm night at around 15’C.

Some cloud still possible to start the day on Friday, but it will clear to leave good spells of sunshine – a bit of fair weather cloud, and perhaps some high-level cloud to make it hazy. Reaching around 20’C, or a shade under. Fairly clear skies overnight and chilly, down to around 7’C.

By Saturday we see high pressure rising from the south.

So we are looking at fine and settled weather, though sunshine is likely of the hazy variety due to a spell of rain to our west. Reaching around 18’C. Reasonably clear skies at first overnight, though likely clouding over later. Not chilly, though temperatures a bit uncertain – in the range of 10’C to 14’C.

Sunday has a bit of uncertainty – becoming much warmer, but also a weak weather front will bring some cloud and perhaps a bit of light rain at some unknown point. Hazy sunshine otherwise and temperatures in the range of 21’C to 24’C – not bad for the first day of October! Likely fairly cloudy overnight – a small chance of some showers, and around 13’C.

Monday looks warm, though with a chance of heavy showers – that part is quite uncertain.

Fresher for Tuesday.

High pressure is then likely to build over the UK for Wednesday, for at least a couple of days – quite warm by day but likely chilly nights too. Perhaps it might even become warmer for the weekend, some more 20’C days are certainly very possible – I still expect a warmer and drier October than normal.

Not sure when the next forecast will be – I’m out of my usual pattern thanks to Gatwick’s air traffic control deciding that I needed an extra night in Spain. Maybe Saturday/Sunday if I can find time!…

Hello from sunny again Spain, to sunnier soon Britain.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Early cloud will clear to leave sunny spells for the morning. Cloud will bubble up from around midday with a scattering of showers developing, some heavy – around a 75% chance of catching a couple, but you may miss them all. Reaching around 17’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

By Saturday we see a ridge of high pressure building from the south – with the remnants of Hurricane Nigel merging with low pressure to our west.

It leaves us with a fine day, sunny spells and variable amounts of fair weather cloud. Around 17’C, maybe squeezing an 18’C. Cloud thickening somewhat overnight as weather fronts try to push in from the west – down to around 12’C.

Sunday sees spells of hazy sunshine – the cloud perhaps thick enough for a splash of rain but most likely the rain will stay further west/north. Sunshine amounts likely to increase later in the day. Warmer though quite windy, 19’C, maybe 20’C. The weather front crosses overnight, bringing mostly cloud and the odd spot of rain. No lower than around 15’C.

Monday may start cloud from the overnight weather front but it will clear to leave good spells of sunshine, a bit of fair weather cloud and it will be warm – around 22’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though there is a chance of importing a heavy shower from France. Down to around 13’C.

Tuesday is where things start to break down in terms of confidence, but broadly warm, with variable amounts of cloud, some sunshine at times but also a chance of some heavy showers. Around 21’C, give or take.

By Wednesday things are very much up in the air. Likely still on the warm side, but otherwise uncertain – potentially wet or very wet though.

It does look like the jetstream will be re-invigorated as next week goes on, but the track is a little uncertain – generally from Wednesday onwards it should remain quite warm, or warm, but on some days there will be wind and rain – other days fine and pleasant. Getting the day-to-day pattern looks a little off, maybe will take a couple more days of model runs to sort this out.

October still broadly looks warmer and drier than normal, due to an expected high pressure block close to our west – though this certainly does not preclude spells of rain too, depending on where low pressure gets stuck due to the block.

I’m off to go find a castle and then some sangria. Enjoy your weekend!…

Hola from sunny…cloudy Spain. A day of cloud and showers for me, a week of rain, showers and wind for you.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

So the general picture sees the Atlantic in control, though still a warm source of air.

Today will be mostly cloudy with bits and pieces of rain at times. Some occasional brightness, especially later in the day when it should be dry most of the time. Windy, and around 18’C. A fairly cloudy and warm night, windy too, no lower than 16’C with the odd bit of showery light-ish rain around.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy, a few bright spells possible, the odd shower too. A band of heavy rain will arrive around 11am, give or take, and bring at least 5-6 hours of mostly heavy rain, perhaps very heavy, some notably strong gusts of wind too. 19’C before the rain arrives, 16’C during – and a bit humid. Further pulses of heavy rain may spread up from the south/south-west into the evening – though eventually it will clear east. Skies will clear, winds become light and temperatures drop to around 9’C.

Low pressure still close by for Thursday but we start with sunny spells – perhaps hazy at first with any hangover from the night before’s rain. Heavy showers will developing during the morning, you may miss them but more likely you get a few, perhaps with hail and/or thunder mixed in, some very heavy downpours possible too. Around 17’C and feeling fresher. Variable cloud overnight, some showers possible, down to around 10’C.

Friday starts with sunny spells, but cloud will bubble up with showers breaking out. More likely you get at least a couple of showers – some heavy, but perhaps you miss them. Around 16’C and breezy. Mostly clear skies overnight and chilly, down to around 7’C.

Saturday is a reasonable day as high pressure starts to build once more. Sunny spells for the morning, more in the way of cloud for the afternoon but pleasant enough. Around 16’C. Cloudier overnight, perhaps a bit of showery rain, around 12’C.

By Sunday, we see an ex-hurricane merging with low pressure to our west, helping to drive warmer air once more our way.

Some uncertainty on conditions for Sunday – it will depend on where the weather front is. At worst, cloudy with bits of showery rain, at best hazy sunshine – either way, warm and a bit humid – between 18’C and 22’C depending on sunshine amounts.

Next week starts warm/very warm – probably sunny, though I wouldn’t rule out a weather front being in the mix at some point.…

The warmth returns, but low pressure develops too.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

This morning sees long spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud will bubble up from around lunchtime, but there will still be some sunny spells – and increasingly so later on. Very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C. Clear spells for the first half of the night, more cloud later, down to around 12’C.

So for Saturday the general picture is one of low pressure developing, centred to the west of Portugal, which makes for a tricky forecast – low pressure will be edging towards Iceland from North America too, which will be for us next week.

Saturday most likely sees sunny spells, albeit likely hazy sunshine. A small chance of a heavy shower in the afternoon but unlikely as it stands. Very warm, temperatures around 25’C, maybe 26’C. A fairly cloudy and fairly warm night, minimum temperatures around 16’C – some thundery showers will attempt to push north, though how far they get is uncertain – so maybe around a 25% chance of some thunder/rain.

Sunday looks like seeing a band of thundery rain spread north – you may just get a bit of patchy rain, you may get a proper thundery downpour – quite uncertain on details and it will be until the morning. Likely followed by hazy sunshine, and it will be warm and humid, around 22’C. Further thundery downpours possible in the evening and overnight – though hit and miss, you may get nothing or just a bit of rain, you may instead get a couple of notable downpours/thunderstorms. Fairly warm, down to around 16’C.

By Monday the low pressure near Iceland is heading our way, and will scoop up the remnants of the Portuguese thundery low.

A somewhat complicated picture, but broadly speaking sunny spells and showers – though showers likely to come in organised bands, probably heavy at times. Quite windy, perhaps notably gusty in heaviest showers, and temperatures around 20’C. Clear spells overnight though a stray shower possible, around 10’C.

By Tuesday we are in a westerly flow – the Atlantic back in gear. Uncertainty on the track of low pressure systems at this stage, but either sunshine and showers, or cloudy with rain. Quite windy and around 17’C.

Wednesday again sees showers or rain – though a bit warmer, closer to 20’C.

Thursday…showers or rain.

You get the theme, and I need to start work! The Atlantic very much taking over for our first proper autumnal spell with rain or showers most days, and generally quite windy, perhaps strong winds at times.

Good timing for one to go on holiday to Spain! Forecasts should still happen from myself, as long as the wi-fi is decent enough. Enjoy the warm sunshine this weekend whilst you can (if you can).…

More warmth and sunshine to come, but some cloud and showers in the mix too.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Today starts fairly cloudy, the odd scattered shower around – and a bit of brightness. Perhaps more in the way of sunny spells this afternoon, but still plenty of cloud, and now a scattering of heavy showers, thunder possible. Warm and humid, reaching around 22’C, maybe 23’C. Showers fading in the evening, then an area of cloud slowly sinks south, perhaps a spot of light rain at times, temperatures around 14’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy. Gradually the sun will break through, and it will become mostly sunny by around lunchtime, give or take. Fair-weather cloud bubbling up during the afternoon, with a small chance of a shower but most places dry. Fresher, 20’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

There’s not a lot happening in the general North Atlantic/Europe area in terms of forcing on our weather – though weather fronts will try to push down from the north-west on Thursday, unsuccessfully.

Generally Thursday sees hazy sunshine, quite a lot of high cloud and fair-weather cloud, but it will be warm, if not very warm and a tad humid once more. Around 23’C, maybe 24’C. The weather front to our north heads further north overnight, we’ll remain with high cloud and temperatures down to around 13’C – a chance of mist/fog/low cloud by dawn.

Friday sees any early mist/fog/low cloud clear fairly quickly, leaving good spells of sunshine, albeit somewhat hazy at times. Most likely quite hot once more, say in the range of 25’C to 27’C – however it does depend on how close the weather front is, and hence how much high cloud there is – certainly plausible that we are closer to the 22’C to 24’C range. A fairly warm night – a chance of some heavy showers breaking out.

And then time for some fun and games.

What looks likely to happen is an elongated area of low pressure develops, stretching from Portugal, through France, and into the UK – tapping into the warmth and humidity.

This leaves conditions highly uncertain for the weekend, but the more likely outcome is for it to be quite hot, with thundery downpours – some sunny spells at times. More likely temperatures broadly in the range of 25’C to 29’C and notably humid. A lower chance that instead we are stuck under general cloud and rain, with temperatures somewhere in the range of 16’C to 22’C. A warm night likely, say around 18’C, with further heavy, showery rain very possible.

Sunday most likely is in the same vein – very warm, humid, some sunny spells possible but more likely some heavy, thundery downpours – perhaps torrential, a small chance of large hail and frequent lightning.

It should be fresher by Monday – and next week most likely reverts to a westerly theme, with wind, rain and showers. But likely warmer than normal!

Perhaps warmer and drier towards the end of September once more. Unusually warmer? We’ll see. I wonder if we’ll end up recording the warmest ever September – in the same year that we recorded the warmest ever June.…

Whilst the main focus for heavy, thundery showers will be to our west, and then later to our north, there is a chance that some may break out further east later this morning, between roughly 10am and 2pm, say around a 30% chance of catching one.

Should it occur, then frequent lightning, torrential downpours and strong gusts of wind are all possible too.

Otherwise it will be another hot and sunny day, albeit with high/mid-level cloud making it hazy at times. Reaching around 29’C if we do get a storm, 31’C without.

Worth keeping an eye on the radar if you have outdoor plans – https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

No other changes to mention – next full forecast will be on Tuesday morning most likely.…

A few more hot days but gradually we’ll return to normal next week.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

So the general picture is pretty much the perfect set-up for heat – high pressure over the UK and to our east, low pressure to the west, with a southerly flow. For heat-lovers, it doesn’t get much better.

Friday sees more in the way of high cloud which will make the sun hazy for spells during the day, but it will remain very pleasant and hot – around 30’C. Also more humid than it has been – thanks to that high cloud. Mostly clear skies overnight, another warm night, minimum of 18’C.

Saturday sees long spells of hot sunshine – possibly the hottest day of the spell (and the year), at around 31’C, maybe 32’C. A little bit of fair weather cloud bubbling up in the afternoon and an exceptionally small chance of a thundery downpour – if any form they should be north Midlands ish. Clear spells at first overnight, though tending to become somewhat more cloudy – a very small chance of importing a thundery downpour. Warm and humid, minimum temperatures around 20’C – yuck!

Some uncertainty for Sunday but it remains hot and humid. The more likely outcome sees a mostly sunny day, with some high/mid-level cloud at times, and temperatures reaching somewhere in the range of 30’C to 33’C – an outside chance of a little higher, and even the UK September record of 35.6’C being broken somewhere, say London to Cambridge kind of area. However, there is also some uncertainty around some areas of cloud and thundery showers developing – showers not especially likely down here, but perhaps enough cloud to limit temperatures to 28’C. Another warm night and increasingly cloudy, temperatures no lower than 18’C.

Monday sees the less hot air start to arrive. More in the way of cloud than there has been, but some sunny spells and temperatures still quite hot – somewhere in the range of 25’C to 28’C. A 30% chance of a heavy shower or two during the afternoon – quite uncertain though. Another fairly warm night, otherwise conditions uncertain.

Details uncertain for Tuesday, but broadly the more likely outcome sees a fairly weak weather front bring cloud and some patchy rain – timing uncertain, temperatures also uncertain – somewhere in the range of 20’C to 24’C, depending on timing of the rain band. A much fresher, cooler night likely.

Wednesday more likely sees sunny spells and temperatures around 20’C – still warm.

Thursday, lower confidence but sunny spells, some cloud and a chance of a shower – around 21’C or so.

By this point we will have two notable hurricanes far to our west, Lee and Martha, so higher than normal uncertainty on the patterns downstream in the UK.

Certainly plausible that we go back to very warm for next weekend though with an increased chance of heavy/very heavy showers – arguably the slightly more likely outcome, but all usual (or unusual!) September conditions are plausible too.

There are signals for an unsettled week the week after, but with two hurricanes on the go to our west…who knows.

Enjoy the heat this weekend if you can…relief isn’t far away if you cannot.…

Heatwave. Quite an exceptional spell of weather for September.

Thanks to Cathy for the photograph.

So the general set-up sees high pressure over the UK, low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal – and this allows a continental flow, with air originally sourced from Africa. Hence…heatwave.

Today will be hot and sunny – no cloud after any early mist/fog/low cloud patches clear. 29’C, maybe 30’C, though a little bit of a breeze developing. Mostly clear skies overnight though a little high cloud for a time, and one or to patches of mist/fog/low cloud by dawn. A fairly warm night, no lower than 16’C.

Wednesday will be hot and sunny – any early mist/fog/low cloud patches clear. A bit more high cloud around than on Tuesday, but hotter, 31’C, maybe 32’C. Generally more high cloud overnight and temperatures therefore higher, so a warm night at no lower than 18’C – perhaps no lower than 20’C in some spots. Again a chance of some mist/low cloud patches by dawn.

Thursday starts with mist/fog/low cloud in places, but this will clear fairly quickly, and otherwise it will therefore be another day of glorious sunshine – perhaps some high cloud. Again 31’C, maybe 32’C should be achieved. Some high cloud overnight and again some patches of mist/fog/low cloud by dawn, probably more extensive than previous dawns. Some uncertainty over temperatures but broadly another warm night, down to somewhere between 15’C and 19’C.

Friday sees any early mist/fog/low cloud clear fairly quickly, then long spells of sunshine, albeit some high cloud making it hazy at times. Hot, reaching 30’C, maybe 31’C. Clear skies for much of the night, though mist/fog/low cloud developing towards dawn for many places. A warm night, minimums between 18’C and 20’C.

It remains hot into the weekend, with high pressure still in place.

Saturday sees early mist/fog/low cloud patches clear to leave long spells of sunshine. A little bit of cloud bubbling up and an exceptionally small chance of a shower. Likely a shade hotter again, around 32’C. A small chance of a thundery shower overnight, otherwise clear skies and warm, minimum temperatures somewhere between 18’C and 20’C.

Sunday will be another day of long, hot sunshine. A bit of cloud bubbling up and a very small chance of a thundery shower. Around 32’C, maybe a shade more. Another warm night, minimum temperatures somewhere between 17’C and 19’C.

Monday likely remains on the hot and sunny side, though an increasing chance of some showers, perhaps thundery and we should start to ease on the temperatures – somewhere between 25’C and 28’C, depending on sunshine amounts.

Then for the rest of next week we are looking at a gradual normalisation. Not impossible that the hot spell continues a bit longer, but most likely by Tuesday we are down to it being very warm, with more comfortable nights too. And the weather should be more changeable – some sunshine, some cloud, some showers.

Enjoy the hot sunshine, if you can! I fully intend to, after our grumpy July/August.…