Another couple of fairly benign days ahead but much colder air arrives from the Arctic for next week, wind, rain, some overnight frosts…and maybe some sleet or snow. Quite a bit of sunshine too.

Rain is far more likely than snow this far south, especially given that it isn’t even a winter month yet – that we are even talking about a small chance shows this upcoming Arctic blast packs more of a punch than usual.

Pretty much the opposite of the boring weather we’ve had for the last few weeks.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

The general picture right now sees high pressure still in control, though strengthening over the Atlantic which will allow the colder air to spread south next week. Low pressure still near Spain/Portugal.

Friday starts mostly cloudy. This will break up during the morning to leave some sunny spells, though still some cloud around. Reaching around 10’C. Fairly clear skies for much of the night, though more cloud by dawn. Down to around 3’C.

Saturday is mostly cloudy as a weather front sinks south – the first sign of change. Some bits and pieces of light rain, but dry most of the day. Something a little more persistent in the way of rain in the evening, but still fairly minimal amounts. Around 10’C, maybe 11’C. Cloud breaking up somewhat overnight, down to around 4’C.

Sunday sees a mixture of sunny spells and cloud. A little cooler, around 9’C. Mostly cloudy overnight – some rain spreading south later in the night though fairly sporadic. Around 5’C or so.

Monday should be cloudy and wet, as a quickly developing low pressure heads down from the north-west – and likely mild, at around 12’C. However, there is still a bit of uncertainty as to the track, and it could be a bit further south, with much lower temperatures – but likely still rain though. Windy also. Further rain and showers overnight, potentially some heavy showers. Around 8’C.

And then let the cold air flood south.

Low confidence on details for Tuesday, possibly still some rain to clear in the morning, an outside chance of a little back-edge wintriness as it clears, but most likely rain. Then becoming colder, but sunnier, from the north. Potentially still 10’C in the morning, closer to 5’C once the rain clears. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 0’C, a frost possible and a cold wind too.

Wednesday should be sunny but colder, in a northerly breeze/wind. An outside chance of a wintry shower and reaching around 5’C. Frost likely overnight, down to around -1’C or lower.

The more likely outcome for Thursday will be to remain cold and sunny, around 5’C. However, there is a chance of low pressure crossing the south, which would bring a spell of rain, and perhaps snow – something to keep an eye out for, but will be a few days before we can get a handle on this possibility. Frost likely overnight, down to around -1’C or lower.

Friday more likely will remain sunny but cold, around 5’C. Again, overnight frost probable.

Much milder air, with wind and rain, will likely try to push up from the south next weekend – whether it succeeds is highly debatable, but I’d suggest 60/40 odds that it does. Which would bring another small chance of snow on any leading edge of a weather front, before it turned to rain – depending on how the air masses interact.

Lots going on next week, and some uncertainty on details as close as 2-3 days away. Do keep a close eye on professional forecasts if you have plans on Monday, Thursday or next weekend – though I will update if anything changes in terms of snow potential – at the moment each event remains just a small chance down here.

Enjoy your weekend.