OMG there’s some sunshine in this forecast. And that isn’t the only surprising word beginning with the letter s, that I’ll use.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

So high pressure is in charge, though a different area than previously – the weather front from yesterday has cleared the murk away, and there isn’t a load of moisture trapped under this new high pressure. Hence we can have some sunshine.

Monday starts with quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud but it will be bright. Slowly during the day this sinks further south, and we’ll get increasing amounts of sunshine. Reaching around 12’C. A breeze picking up overnight from the north-east, otherwise reasonably clear skies and down to around 5’C.

Tuesday starts with sunny spells. More cloud in the afternoon as areas of cloud and perhaps a spot of light rain spread in from the North Sea, but still some sunny spells possible. Around 12’C once more and a bit of a breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 6’C.

High pressure still in control for Wednesday, sunny spells at times – it does look like an area of high cloud will spread south for the afternoon making the sunshine hazy, and perhaps some areas of low cloud too. Around 12’C once more. Likely cloudy overnight, perhaps some light rain/drizzle, and roughly around 7’C – give or take.

Thursday starts cloudy, some bits and pieces of light rain/drizzle around. This sinks south to allow some sunny spells in the afternoon – the extent of which is uncertain, perhaps limited sunshine, perhaps quite a bit. Around 11’C. Some clear spells overnight, but also a risk of fog forming if so. Down to around 4’C.

Early fog possible for Friday, then probably a mixture of sunny spells and cloudy spells – uncertain on the cloud/sunshine balance at this stage. Around 10’C. A chilly night probable.

Things start to change on Saturday – probably there is some form of northerly flow established, though the initial timing of such is complicated by a low pressure towards Spain/Portugal.

Taking the somewhat more likely outcome that we get a clean northerly flow by Saturday, and the low pressure stays near Spain/Portugal, then Saturday looks cloudy, with a band of rain sinking south – timing uncertain but more likely afternoon/evening. Around 10’C but becoming colder during the day, as the cold northerly wind sets in. Frost possible overnight, though perhaps too windy.

Sunday would then be a fairly cold day in the northerly wind, sunny spells likely, an outside chance of a…wintry shower. Around 5’C but feeling colder. Frost more likely overnight.

However, there is an alternative vision – that the low pressure near Spain/Portugal starts to move towards us during Saturday, and we delay the northerly and lessen the impact. This would mean a fairly sunny day on Saturday, probably rain on Sunday – and staying around 12’C or so.

These broad scenarios are roughly a 65% to 35% chance, though some compromise version will also be possible.

Next week looks unsettled with low pressure around, and on the cold side. How cold will depend on how the cold arrived in the first place – if the clean northerly arrived on Saturday as per the somewhat more likely outcome, then it may well end up with daytime temperatures of somewhere between 2’C and 5’C, if the latter than closer to 7’C. Overnight frosts possible.

Of course, if we end up with a scenario where temperatures are between 2’C and 5’C, and with low pressure around – this would mean some sleet/snow is not impossible. Unlikely, but not impossible.