Hello from hot and sunny Ljubljana! Some notable warmth, sunshine and possible thundery downpours in the mix back home over the next few days.

Apologies for the lack of forecast so far this week, I had virtually no wi-fi in my previous place so it was impossible. This will likely be a slightly shorter forecast than usual as I have a lake to go to – and exact details are quite uncertain.

And thanks to Louise for the photograph.

So the general picture right now sees an area of high pressure over the UK, but with low pressure to the west – which is dragging up much warmer air, but also brings instability.

Today starts with a fair amount of cloud around, but it will gradually break up and by the afternoon there should be good/long spells of very warm sunshine. Reaching around 25’C, maybe a tad more. Mostly clear skies overnight though high cloud building later, down to around 13’C.

Thursday starts bright and warm. Later in the morning a weather front will push across, bringing some showery and probably heavy rain, perhaps a little thunder too – however the showery nature does mean there is a small chance of staying dry, and just being mostly cloudy for a time. Most likely any rain will clear mid/late afternoon onwards to leave more very warm sunny spells. Somewhere between 23’C and 26’C, depending on exactly how the day pans out. Mostly clear skies overnight and quite a warmish feel, 15’C.

Friday starts with sunny spells and some cloud. Rather hot and humid, most likely somewhere between 26’C and 28’C, though I wouldn’t rule out a 30’C. Showers possibly breaking out in the afternoon, but more so we are looking to the evening with a moderate chance, say around 40% of importing some significant thunderstorms from France. Where exactly they will track is uncertain, so they may well miss totally (more likely to miss than hit as it stands) – but if they so head our way, expect torrential rain and potentially copious amounts of lightning. A warm and humid night, no lower than 17’C.

Further heavy, thundery showers possible to start Saturday, but gradually this will move north to leave good sunny spells for the afternoon. I wouldn’t rule out an afternoon shower. Around 22’C though very give and take.

Sunday should be broadly pleasant as high pressure builds once more, sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud – though around a 40% chance of a heavy shower or two. Around 22’C.

More likely next week sees high pressure continue to build, so plenty more settled and fairly sunny weather, though the odd shower or weak weather front will be possible.

Models again hinting at a build up of heat later next week, so don’t be surprised if we end up in the high 20’s or even low 30’C by late next week or into next weekend. Something to watch but not yet expect.

I wouldn’t even rule out the June temperature record being broken.

Not sure when the next forecast will be, maybe Sunday morning, as I shall be back then, but if I get the time on Friday then I’ll do a thunderstorm update (thankfully my flight is in the morning that day!).…

Some heavy showers in the next couple of days – but then becoming much warmer.

Thanks to Cathy for the photograph.

The general set-up sees low pressure in charge right now, with a westerly flow.

Friday starts fairly cloudy – a band of showers will cross fairly early in the day, perhaps heavy. Sunny spells and scattered heavy showers will follow for a while, though showers tending to fade early/mid afternoon as cloud slowly thickens from the west. Quite windy at times but getting to around 20’C. Cloud continues to thicken in the evening with outbreaks of rain arrive late evening – some heavy bursts likely. Probably drier by dawn, down to around 11’C.

Saturday probably starts dry and bright, though showers will quickly move in during the morning. Into the afternoon, there will likely be frequent heavy/very heavy showers, thunder and hail both very possible. Some strong gusts of wind in the showers. Around 18’C. Showers fewer in the evening but still one or two around for a while, mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

Sunday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble up with a scattering of showers, fewer than Saturday – you might miss them all, and generally less heavy though still could be quite heavy if you catch one. Around 18’C or so and still breezy. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

By Monday the Azores high will be pushing in. A fairly sunny start, likely plenty of cloud bubbles up – more cloud than sun from around late morning, but still some sunshine. Warmer, say 21’C and just a 20% chance of a shower. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

For Tuesday, we see the high pressure now centred over northern France, and a small low pressure to the west of Portugal/Spain is forming which will help to move some warmth our way.

So Tuesday for us will be generally pleasant, variable amounts of sunshine and cloud – tending to be more cloud than sun around the middle of the day, otherwise more sunshine. Warmer, 24’C seems feasible. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday will see good spells of sunshine, some cloud around but not too much. Very warm, if not quite hot – 26’C seems feasible. Mostly clear skies overnight and a warmish night, no lower than around 15’C in a southerly breeze. A very small chance of importing a thunderstorm later in the night.

Thursday is…complicated. Low pressure will be pushing east but how it interacts with the heat coming from Spain is uncertain. There is a potential for it to be pretty hot and humid, say somewhere between 25’C and 32’C – with some thundery downpours. But it really could be any normal summer weather that day.

Friday therefore also highly uncertain, though further warmth and showers will both be very possible.

Fairly strong signal for next weekend to see high pressure push up from the south-west once more, so something more settled with sunny spells, and normal levels of warmth – say around 23’C, give or take, being the more likely outcome. Not nailed on yet, Thursday’s low does cause some uncertainty still, but fairly high confidence considering it is 8 days away.

High pressure likely in control the week after – expect more very warm sunshine.

Have a pleasant weekend – I’m off on an adventure again (Trieste and Ljubljana) so not sure when the next forecasts will be, but I will find time at some point next week. And yes, it is looking hot and sunny in both Trieste and Ljubljana – thankfully nothing too extreme either!…

A somewhat more unsettled week ahead.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

The general picture to start the week sees a westerly flow, with our next low pressure system currently to the south-west of Iceland, gearing up.

Monday will still be a pleasant day though, plenty of sunshine, some fair-weather cloud at times, perhaps more cloud than sunshine through the lunch period, and reaching around 21’C or so. Quite breezy too. Clear spells for much of the night, though cloud thickening towards dawn – down to around 11’C.

Tuesday sees a band of rain crossing, arriving around 7/8am (give or take), often light and patchy but a few heavier bursts probable, more likely in the afternoon before it clears. Sunny spells arriving later in the afternoon – a bit of uncertainty as to when the band of rain clears. Around 16’C and windy. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Lots of cloud likely for Wednesday and a few heavy showers around – say a 75% chance of catching at least a couple. Some sunny spells, but fairly limited – and breezy too. Around 18’C. A mostly cloudy night with some bits of showery rain, around 11’C.

Low pressure still stuck to the north of Scotland on Thursday, and it will have spawned a secondary low on its southern edge for Thursday.

Some uncertainty as to how it develops at this stage, though more likely Thursday will see much of the day wet and probably windy – timing TBC also. There is a small chance that this secondary low doesn’t develop too much, in which case we’d be looking at sunny spells and heavy showers – but the wet and windy scenario is at least an 80% chance. Temperatures will depend on when the rain arrives, if in the morning then it probably won’t get above 14’C, if it starts bright and the rain arrives later, then maybe 18’C. Probably dry overnight.

Friday likely will be a fairly cloudy day with multiple showers, probably heavy too, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. A bit of sunshine at times too though. Around 19’C and breezy, if not quite windy. Further showers or showery rain probable overnight.

Low pressure still in charge for Saturday though the broad-scale trough starting to pull away. Details uncertain but either a spell of rain for much of the day, or fairly cloudy with frequent heavy, thundery showers are the two more likely outcomes. Temperatures somewhere between 15’C and 19’C, depending on whether we get any sunshine, and still breezy.

Sunday probably sees a ridge of high pressure, though fairly low confidence. So a drier day, quite a lot of cloud, some sunny spells, still a chance of a shower or two – and roughly around 18’C, give or take.

You may be wondering if we’ve had our summer.

Well…no. It’s just taking a break. My full summer forecast will be issued in the next couple of days.

Next week should be an improvement, warmer, more sunshine – though not every day, still likely some showers or even a band of rain for some days.…

A warm end to spring, then a mixed start to summer – though not that much rain in the mix.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

So the general picture sees a westerly flow with the jetstream fairly close to our north, but also we are just about tapping into some of the heat coming up from Africa and into western Europe – will be close to 40’C in some parts of southern Spain/Portugal which seems pretty extraordinary for late May.

Friday starts rather cloudy – it will gradually break up during the morning to leave reasonable amounts of sunny spells for the afternoon, though it will also become hazier as high cloud spreads across. Very warm, temperatures will depend on how quickly the cloud clears, but roughly between 24’C and 26’C. High level cloud overnight, around 14’C.

Saturday starts sunny – probably it becomes rather cloudy for a time around late morning/lunchtime, before becoming sunnier early afternoon onwards, though the timing of this potential cloudier spell is uncertain. Broadly speaking a very pleasant day, and likely quite hot, around 27’C – though with the uncertainty of how cloudy it might become and for how long, a cloudier scenario would be a bit lower in terms of temperatures but still very warm. Some clear spells at times overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday starts fairly sunny. Again cloud will spread across, likely more cloud than sunshine overall for the lunchtime period, then sunnier again later in the day. A small chance of a passing shower, won’t amount to much if you do catch one. Less warm but still very pleasant, around 21’C, a little breezy too. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Monday will be another pleasant day, sunny for a good portion of the morning, cloud bubbling up around lunchtime for a few hours but still bright enough, then sunnier later in the day again. A very small chance of a shower. Warm, around 22’C. Clear skies at first overnight, cloud building later. Around 11’C.

By Tuesday we see a new area of low pressure approach and cross the UK, though it gets blocked and shifts north over the next couple of days.

So Tuesday will see a band of rain cross at some point, a few hours of rain but totals fairly low-moderate. Timing uncertain, sunny spells will follow. Around 18’C and windy. Probably dry with clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.

Not especially high confidence for Wednesday, but the more likely outcome is for something quite cloudy, some sunny spells, one or two showers possible, and around 19’C. Still breezy. There is a smaller chance of a spell of rain instead.

Probably either a spell of rain or showers for Thursday, again not especially high confidence.

Next weekend is highly uncertain – certainly a chance that we tap into the heat to our south, which could also mean some thundery downpours. But other options more likely, say something similar to this weekend, or something more average with some showers. As I said a lot of uncertainty.

The changeable theme is more likely to continue after this, though with the emphasis more on warm/very warm and sunny days, and fewer days with showers/rain/cloud – and a chance of short hot/very hot spells mixed in.

Have a pleasant weekend – I will be doing the summer forecast soon, hopefully early next week.…

A mixed week ahead with rain at times, but also some warmth and sunshine.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

So the general picture to start the week sees a westerly flow, low pressure to our north, and two developing to the west, queueing up to visit the UK.

So today is a mostly cloudy day with a couple of showers around. Around 18’C and breezy. The first half of the night will be cloudy with bits and pieces of rain, the second half sees clearer skies. Windy, around 13’C.

Tuesday starts with some hazy sunshine but it will quickly cloud over, with rain arriving around 10/11am ish. The rain somewhat showery, some heavy bursts likely mixed in too. Becoming windy in the afternoon, around 16’C. Still some showery bits in the evening though these fading – mostly dry overnight, around 12’C. Still breezy.

Wednesday will see a fair amount of cloud around, but some sunny spells at times too – more likely later in the day. Some showers around too, more likely in the morning or through lunchtime. Warmer once more, around 20’C and still breezy. Becoming cloudy overnight, a bit of patchy rain, mostly light. Around 13’C.

Thursday will be a mostly cloudy day – a bit of uncertainty over where the overnight weather front will be, so a 25% chance of some showery bits of rain in the morning, but more likely mostly dry. Some sunshine possible later in the day. Warmer as we’ll be starting to tap into the heat pushing up from Africa, reaching around 22’C despite all the cloud. Fairly clear skies overnight, around 13’C.

By Friday we’ll just be picking up some of the heat that is pushing from Africa northwards.

Most likely it will be a sunny day, or at least hazy sunshine. Temperatures somewhere between 23’C and 28’C – some uncertainty as to how much of the heat we can tap into (it won’t be far from 40’C in southern Spain). Probably dry overnight, though a very small chance of importing a thunderstorm from France.

Not especially high confidence on details for the weekend.

Saturday will likely still be very warm, say around 24’C give or take. Sunny spells and scattered heavy showers the more likely theme, but I wouldn’t rule out it just being dry and sunny, though likewise nor would I rule out something cloudier and wetter at this stage.

Sunday more likely is a bit less warm, say 19’C to 22’C. Sunny spells and heavy showers the more likely outcome, though as I said, not especially high confidence.

Fairly low confidence also for next week, more likely would be the continuation of the showery theme with temperatures varying say between 17’C and 22’C, but something drier – or much wetter are possible instead.

Plausible that we tap into some of the heat to the south the weekend after, say a 25% chance of a short hot spell – one to watch, but not yet expect.…

A mixed bank holiday weekend ahead – but there is some sunshine in the mix.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

So the general picture sees a notable change from recent, high pressure still ridging across the UK, but now sourced from the south-west instead of the north-west – and low pressure out in the Atlantic is about to roll across.

Friday starts sunny, cloud will bubble up through the morning and through the lunchtime period likely there is more cloud than sunshine overall. Sunshine amounts increasing as the afternoon goes on, though also becoming hazy as high cloud spreads across from the west, as the weather system approaches. Around 19’C or so, with a bit of a breeze in the afternoon. Cloudy overnight, some outbreaks of rain from around midnight onwards. Around 12’C.

Saturday starts cloudy with some outbreaks of rain. This will clear east fairly quickly to leave a mostly cloudy day, quite breezy, some occasional bits of sunshine, some occasional bits of light rain/drizzle. Quite warm and a little humid, around 20’C or so – maybe 22’C if there is a bit of sunshine in the afternoon. Further showery outbreaks of rain arriving in the evening and overnight, though I stress the showery nature. Quite windy too, down to around 12’C.

Sunday will be quite a reasonable day. A chance of some showers first thing, but mostly a case of sunny spells and fair weather cloud from mid/late-morning onwards. I cannot totally rule out an afternoon shower but more likely it stays dry. Breezy and just about getting to 20’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.

Bank Holiday Monday starts quite sunny, but cloud will bubble up during the morning with some scattered showers. Generally becoming cloudier as the afternoon goes on, further showers possible, or perhaps general showery rain. Around 18’C and windy. Some rain or showers overnight, probably dry by dawn and around 12’C.

By Tuesday, low pressure remains in control, centred to the north of Scotland – though high pressure will be attempting to nudge north from the Azores.

Rain is going to spread across on Tuesday, some uncertainty on the timing though. More likely a bright start with some sunny spells, with the rain arriving in the afternoon – though a smaller chance instead that it arrives in the morning. Reaching somewhere between 16’C and 19’C, depending on how much sunshine we get before the rain arrives, quite windy too. Further rain likely in the evening and/or overnight, timing uncertain, quite possibly heavy this time.

That’s as far as I can go in terms of details – even Tuesday is quite uncertain in terms of the timing of areas of rain.

Probably some rain at some point on Wednesday.

Thursday and through the weekend, still some weather fronts likely crossing though with high pressure to our south having more influence, these will be weaker affairs with lighter rain, and there should be sunshine at other times.

Probably warmer from Thursday onwards too, low, perhaps mid 20’s – a small chance of it becoming quite hot.

The changeable theme more likely to continue for the start of June, though short hot spells could also be part of this changeable theme.

Chances of something more settled for mid-June, say week 2 onwards.

Have a pleasant weekend.…

Still some pleasant weather around this week, but more in the way of cloud, and some shower chances too. And the bank holiday looks mixed.

Thanks to Suzanne for the photograph.

We start the week with the omni-present high pressure that has controlled our weather for most of the recent months now towards Iceland, the easterly flow continues.

During the course of the week this high weakens and drifts further away, high pressure tries to build from the south-west but also low pressure tries to head in from the north-east – neither will win.

Monday starts cloudy. It will take some time to shift, late morning at best though more likely not until early/mid-afternoon, but eventually there will be some good sunny spells. Around 18’C in a light easterly breeze. We lose the easterly flow overnight so the cloud probably doesn’t return, at least not to the same level, some cloud possible but more in the way of clear skies – around 8’C.

Tuesday starts mostly sunny. It will stay reasonably sunny all day, though high cloud will tend to build making it hazy, and some fair-weather cloud later in the day too. Warm, 22’C. Cloud thickens overnight, a little patchy rain possible towards dawn, around 12’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy with some patchy light/moderate rain in places. This will clear south to sunny spells, say around midday but that’s very approximate. Once the sun comes out, some scattered heavy showers will break out, very possibly thundery, during the afternoon and into early evening. Around 18’C, give or take. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

By Thursday we are caught between low pressure to our north-east and high pressure trying to move in from the south-west. Neither will be the eventual winner – that is the low pressure starting to gear up closer to Canada.

Some uncertainty on details for Thursday, more likely a sunny start, but with an area of cloud then moving south during the day – whether it is completely cloudy or somewhat cloudy is uncertain. Perhaps a little rain but nothing much. Temperatures roughly around 16’C to 18’C. Fairly clear skies overnight and a chilly night – down to around 3’C.

Friday starts sunny. Likely quite a lot of cloud bubbles up from around mid/late-morning onwards, more cloud than sun but still some sunny spells. Around 18’C or so. Cloud slowly thickening overnight, down to around 8’C.

Then the weather changes, just in time for the bank holiday weekend. It’s the return of autumn, as low pressure moves down from the north-west.

Timings uncertain at the moment, but at some point on Saturday a band of rain will cross – feasibly it could arrive any time from 6am to 9pm, there is quite a broad range as it stands. Probably quite slow moving, so 8-12 hours of rain when it does arrive, though it could be quite patchy and nothing especially heavy is expected. If it doesn’t arrive until late in the day, then perhaps some bright and warmish weather to start the day, but if it does then expect a cool day. Quite windy, though nothing unusual.

Sunday probably looks OK (ish), some cloud, some sunshine, perhaps some showers – around 17’C.

More likely Bank Holiday Monday isn’t too bad either, some cloud, some sunshine, some showers possible – though certainly a chance of a weather front later in the day bringing something cloudier with some rain. Around 16’C.

As I mentioned, details are still a bit sketchy – definitely not any glorious sunshine, but probably not a washout, just very middling weather.

Next week likely sees further rain/showers and wind at times, though a small chance of a short hot spell later in the week, or for next weekend – one to watch but not expect.

Changeable will remain the theme for early June, but some of those changes could be short hot spells followed by thundery downpours.

Happier times for farmers and gardeners I guess!…

More warm sunshine to come, though some patchy cloud at times, more so early mornings.

Thanks to Isabel for the glorious photo.

So the general set-up sees high pressure centred over Scotland. We have a north-easterly breeze which will temper temperatures a little, and also bring a risk of some North Sea cloud, but mostly, more warm sunshine.

Friday starts sunny in some places, cloudy in others. The extent of the cloud may increase a little in the first part of the morning before breaking up to leave long spells of sunshine for the rest of the day, again perhaps a bit more cloud floating around later this afternoon. Fairly warm, 21’C just about feasible, though the north-easterly breeze will take the edge off. North Sea cloud likely spills back across overnight, down to around 8’C.

Saturday starts cloudy for most areas, a small chance of some sunny spells here and there. The cloud will break up, but likely taking a while to do so, perhaps taking until late morning to do so. Once it does, there will be good spells of sunshine, some fair-weather cloud, and again fairly warm – around 21’C. Low cloud spills back in overnight, down to around 8’C.

Sunday starts cloudy once more, but again the cloud will gradually break up – roughly by around late morning, give or take. Good spells of sunshine will follow, with a bit of fair-weather cloud. Fairly warm, around 20’C, still a north-easterly breeze. Cloud probably spreading across overnight again, down to around 8’C.

Monday probably starts fairly cloudy but again it will break up to leave good spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud bubbling up – a small chance of a heavy shower breaking out, say a 10% chance. Around 21’C. Low cloud probably spreading across overnight again, down to around 8’C.

By Tuesday there are signs of changes, low pressure in the Atlantic edging closer, but also low pressure over France and Scandinavia edging north/west towards us too.

The latter will increase our chance of showers for Tuesday, and also the uncertainty. More likely we’ll still see reasonable amounts of warm sunshine but say a 40% chance of some heavy, maybe thundery showers breaking out. Around 21’C or so. A small chance perhaps something cloudier with showery rain instead. Probably reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Fairly low confidence for Wednesday, but more likely dry and more likely on the sunny side of the spectrum. Temperatures around 20’C, perhaps a shade under.

Again some uncertainty for Thursday/Friday – low pressure in the Atlantic will be starting to make more progress towards us, at some point during those two days it will likely bring across a weather front with some patchy rain (probably fairly minimal amounts) – otherwise a mixture of cloud and sunshine, and temperatures roughly around 20’C.

For the bank holiday weekend? Yeah…you know. It’s not yet a done deal, but more likely low pressure is increasingly in control, with rain/showers at times, especially Sunday and Monday. Temperatures still quite warm though.

There is an alternative scenario where high pressure hangs on and we get some/all of the bank holiday with very warm sunshine, but I rate it no higher than a 20% chance.

For the week after, there is a very strong and consistent signal for a spell of wet weather, probably lasting into early June too. Temperatures probably quite variable, some quite warm and quite cool weather likely mixed in – and a chance of some brief southerly flows mixed in, so a day or two of very warm/quite hot weather followed by downpours.

Enjoy the sunshine whilst you can! Though it will be back.…