A more mixed week ahead, but staying mostly very warm/quite hot. It’s a forecast that quickly becomes uncertain too.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure further north-east over Scandinavia, a low pressure to our east trying to head west (hence the less hot air today) and low pressure systems trying to move east too. A little complex.

Sunday will be a mixture of cloudy spells and sunny spells – cloud more likely in the morning. Generally speaking, it will become sunnier as the afternoon goes on. Assuming a reasonable amount of sunshine, it will once again be hot – say around 29’C, though a little uncertainty on that. Overnight sees some high cloud spread in from the south-west, a stray shower not impossible and a fairly warm night – no lower than around 17’C.

Monday sees the flow become more westerly. Sunny spells with variable amounts of cloud, likely more cloud through the lunchtime period and perhaps a shower or two. More sunshine again expected later in the day. Still very warm, reaching around 26’C – though feeling a tad fresher in the afternoon, and becoming quite windy. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Tuesday starts sunny, with a small chance of an early shower. Cloud will thicken, probably we see a spell of rain or some showers arriving any time from late morning onwards. There is quite a bit of uncertainty, more likely I think we will see some heavy rain or heavy showers (an outside chance of a rumble of thunder), but possible we see very little rain and mostly just cloud. Around 22’C and quite windy. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday probably will be reasonably fair, with variable amounts of cloud and some very warm sunshine at times – reaching around 25’C. I say probably, as an area of rain won’t be too far to our south, and something cloudier or even damp is possible instead, if still only a fairly small chance.

And that is as far as I can go with any confidence. Just 4 days and only 2 of them I’m only semi-confident on.

Generally the pattern looks mixed, with some showers or rain on some days, and some sunshine on other days. Showery or dry/sunny days will still be very warm, if not quite hot – generally between 25’C and 30’C.

But which days will be the more showery ones?

With very low confidence, Thursday and Friday arguably more likely to be dry or fairly dry, with some sunshine. Saturday and Sunday more likely to see some heavy showers, or perhaps rain, but still likely very warm (possibly hot).

I don’t think this is a “summer is over” declaration, but certainly it feels like a pattern change.

In general, I think we continue with the very warm theme for the next couple of weeks, but there will be showery days mixed in with sunnier days. Still there will be a chance of short heatwaves (though lower chances than of late) – I would not rule out something extreme either, though the trend does seem to be for the extreme heat of western Europe to become more south-eastern Europe.

Early suggestions are that high pressure may build again after the beginning of August, but that’s a long way away.

Enjoy your Sunday!…

Heatwave number 3 is here. More uncertain after the weekend though.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

The general synoptic overview sees the Azores high well in control, stretching all the way up to Scandinavia. The intense heat over western Europe has abated too.

So today (Thursday) sees long spells of hot sunshine, and just a little bit of cloud. Reaching around 30’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and a fairly warm night, no lower than 17’C.

Friday will again see long spells of hot sunshine, and just a little bit of cloud. Temperatures up a notch to around 31’C, maybe 32’C at a push. Clear skies overnight and a fairly warm night, probably no lower than 18’C.

Saturday sees long spells of hot sunshine, and just a little bit of cloud. Again around 31’C. A slightly more comfortable night, again mostly clear skies and down to around 16’C.

Things start to get a bit uncertain on Sunday – broadly speaking it will stay hot, though there is a chance of some cloud moving in from the North Sea early on Sunday, to bring a spell of cloudy skies – whether it reaches here and if so how long it lasts is uncertain. Sunshine is more likely than cloud overall though, and temperatures more likely towards 29’C – though a cloudier spell would reduce that. Probably some cloud and perhaps a shower overnight, down to around 16’C…ish.

By Monday we start to see low pressure try to move in.

However, it is very uncertain as to whether it will cross the country – some models have it spinning back into the Atlantic towards an area of low pressure further to the west.

So a vague forecast for Monday, probably still hot, say 26’C to 29’C more likely, probably at least some sunny spells – a chance of a band of heavy showers crossing at some point.

From Tuesday onwards it could be anything really. I’d say there is probably around a 30% chance that high pressure builds in once more and we end up back in heatwave territory by the end of the week.

But more likely, say 70% chance, is some mixture of conditions, with some showery rain/showers on some days, very warm (maybe hot) sunny spells on other days.

I do stress the uncertainty for next week, there are a lot of conflicting signals, and model outputs.…

Some showers around today and tonight, but then we’ll gradually move back into heatwave territory next week.

Thanks to Fay for the photograph.

The general synoptic overview right now sees low pressure close by to the north-east, though it is pulling away and the Azores high will take control once more in the coming days.

Today starts with a mostly cloudy morning. A band of showers will cross around lunchtime, probably we’ll see some rain falling at some point, potentially heavy, a chance of thunder too – though it will be showery and the focus is further east than here, so maybe it will stay dry. A bit more sunshine around this afternoon, but plenty of cloud and still a chance of a shower or two. Reaching around 21’C and often breezy. Mostly cloudy overnight, a spell of rain moving down from the north, arriving in the early hours. Down to around 12’C.

Monday starts cloudy with some rain – some uncertainty as to when it clears, but somewhere between 6am and 9am most likely. Once that clears then it will be a case of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, likely more cloud than sunshine through the lunchtime period. A chance of a shower in the afternoon, though if you catch one it should be pretty innocuous. Around 21’C in a northerly breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Tuesday is back to being warm and sunny. Some cloud likely bubbling up, particularly through the lunchtime period, but broadly pleasant and sunny. Warm, around 24’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Wednesday starts sunny. Some cloud probably bubbling up – a chance of a longer spell of cloud during the day, though hard to be sure at this stage. But broadly speaking, sunshine and variable amounts of cloud. Very warm, around 26’C – perhaps a little more, depending on cloud amounts. Clear skies overnight, around 14’C.

By Thursday the Azores high is very much in control.

Long spells of sunshine and hot once more, around 29’C – give or take. Clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

Friday sees long spells of sunshine. Hot, 30’C to 31’C more likely, though perhaps a little either side. A warmer night, probably no lower than say 17’C.

Both Saturday and Sunday will be hot and sunny, temperatures more likely between 30’C and 32’C – though something a little either side possible instead. Warm nights.

The heat possibly lasting into the start of the week after, though the chance of thundery downpours will increase.

I’m still expecting the rest of July to be often hot and sunny, though some occasional temperature resets with some showers will be probable.

Early suggestions of something more changeable for the end of July and/or beginning of August, but still pretty weak signals.

Enjoy your Sunday!…

Well the heatwave has done one (for now), replaced with some sunny days, and some meh days. I hope your house/flat has returned to a normal temperature too!

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

We start the forecast period under a ridge of high pressure from the Azores, though the positioning of the Azores high is going to move west over the coming days, allowing something cooler, cloudier with the odd bit of rain to move down from the north-west.

Thursday itself sees sunshine during the morning, cloud bubbling up from around lunchtime – likely more cloud than sun for a while, then sunnier later in the day. Warm, 23’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Friday will be sunny for much of the day, though some high cloud around so hazy at times, particularly later in the day. Quite hot, up to around 27’C. Cloud thickening overnight, maybe the odd splash of rain later on, down to around 16’C and breezy.

Saturday is a mostly cloudy day. Some bits and pieces of light rain possible, though don’t be surprised if it stays dry. Likewise some sunny spells possible later in the day, but it’s a possibility rather than a probability. Assuming it stays cloudy, then 21’C – though if we get some sunshine in the afternoon then a few degrees more is possible. Breezy. A small chance of a spell of rain in the evening, but more likely it stays to our south. Fairly cloudy overnight, one or two showers possible.

Sunday again sees a lot of cloud, some showery bits of rain possible in the morning though amounts likely limited. Some brightness possible, again more likely later in the day and breezy, around 21’C. Often cloudy overnight, the odd shower around, 13’C.

Low pressure continues to slowly move away east on Monday, though likely a lot of cloud still around, one or two showers possible – more likely in the morning. Some brightness, more likely later in the day. Breezy and around 21’C. Skies clearing overnight, down to around 12’C.

By Tuesday the Azores high is pushing back in.

So Tuesday sees sunny spells, some cloud and warmer once more – up to around 25’C.

Wednesday sees sunny spells, and probably quite hot again, say 27’C or so.

Thursday and Friday are probably hot and sunny, in the range of 28’C to 32’C.

More likely next weekend is hot and sunny – pretty high confidence for 9-10 days away. A small chance it could become very hot, though more likely it will be in the range of 28’C to 32’C – which is still heatwave territory by definition.

Can this glorious summer last? Well, yes and it probably will – the more likely outcome for the rest of July sees high pressure in control, so much more sunshine is expected, and more hot days too.

Weak signals for August, but if it ends up drier, warmer and sunnier than normal, that would not be a surprise, though maybe a little more mixed than July.

Enjoy!…

Heatwave to start, mixed (and somewhat uncertainly so) after.

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

Starting with the general picture which sees high pressure across most of western and central Europe, with some very hot air spreading across much of the continent – I believe 46’C was recorded in Spain yesterday, a new June record. Low pressure systems either well to the north of the UK, or the west.

Sunday starts cloudy. Gradually the sun will break through, to leave long spells of sunshine in the afternoon. Hot, around 30’C, give or take, depending on how quickly the sun breaks through the cloud. Mostly clear skies overnight and a fairly warm night, down to around 18’C.

Monday sees long spells of hot sunshine all day. A little bit of cloud may bubble up in the afternoon. Hotter than it has been, with the upper layers of air being unusually warm, 32’C should be reached, a small chance of 34’C. A warm night in mostly clear skies, around 19’C.

The heat hangs on for Tuesday, again long spells of sunshine though more in the way of high cloud making it hazy at times. A very small chance of a thundery downpour developing in the afternoon, like a 2% chance. Hot, perhaps very hot – 32’C again should be reached, though I wouldn’t yet rule out anything up to 36’C. Some cloud and perhaps a shower overnight, and warm once more – no lower than around 19’C.

Things become very uncertain for Wednesday. Low pressure probably develops over France, so let’s assume it does for now. But even in this assumption, maybe we have a little bit of showery rain, maybe we have some intense thundery downpours, maybe something in between – or maybe it all stays in the continent and we have hazy sunshine. I don’t think a forecast for Wednesday will be clear until the day before.

What I am more confident on is that the heat will move away (even if the French low doesn’t develop), so temperatures somewhere between 21’C and 27’C, depending on cloud/sunshine/rain developments.

By Thursday, we probably see a ridge of high pressure building again, though a more north-westerly flow.

Which would mean broadly speaking, sunny spells, some cloud, a small chance of a shower – around 22’C to 25’C. Though given Wednesday’s uncertainty, I cannot say I am especially confident for Thursday yet.

Friday will probably be sunny and dry, with some bits of cloud. Very warm, around 25’C.

Current suggestions for next weekend are for low pressure to move down from the north-west, so a cloudier weekend with showers or showery rain at times. Still probably on the warm side.

Again, not especially high confidence though.

The more likely outcome for the week after is for somewhat more mixed conditions, generally warm but nothing unusual likely, often dry, sometimes quite cloudy, sometimes sunny, some showers on some days.

Have a pleasant Sunday, if I get chance to update on Wednesday’s uncertain forecast beforehand I will do, but I might not get time. So otherwise the next forecast should be on Thursday morning.…

More heat incoming, and there’s still a chance of breaking the June record on the last day of June.

Thanks to Debs for the photograph.

So the general picture sees the westerly flow abating as the Azores High starts to build from the south-west, and as it does, taps into the European heatwave.

We start Thursday with a weak weather front crossing, mostly bringing cloud (though some sunny breaks), and probably the odd splash of rain, a small chance of a heavy (ish) shower. It will gradually brighten up from early afternoon with increasing amounts of sunshine. Breezy, verging on quite windy in the afternoon, still very warm, around 24’C, maybe a shade more. A mostly cloudy night, perhaps some showery rain after midnight. Down to around 13’C.

Friday sees the Azores high ridging in more, though with weather fronts not far from our north-west there will be some cloud at times, and some uncertainty as to how much. So generally a mixed picture of at least some cloud, and some hazy sunshine – with more emphasis on sunshine later in the day. Very warm though temperatures will depend on how much cloud cover there is, 26’C feels more likely but it could be a couple either side. Clear spells at first overnight though a lot of cloud arriving later, which will mean a warmish night, say around 18’C.

Saturday starts cloudy but finishes sunny. There is uncertainty as to when the cloud starts to break up, it could break up during the morning, if so we’ll get to around 29’C, maybe 30’C, if it doesn’t start breaking up until the afternoon then 26’C to 27’C is more likely. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 16’C.

By Sunday, high pressure is very much in control and tapping into the heat to our south.

Good spells of sunshine for most of the day, though some bits of cloud around. Hot, we should get to 30’C, I wouldn’t rule out 32’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, eventually down to around 18’C.

Monday is probably the peak of this heatwave (there will be more this summer!), with long spells of sunshine for most of the day, though maybe a 5% chance of a thundery downpour developing later in the afternoon. It will be hot, somewhere between 30’C and 33’C more likely, but I wouldn’t rule out anything up to 36’C at this stage. A warm night likely, around 20’C. Yuck.

Tuesday is more uncertain, possible that the heat can hang on another day (30% chance approximately), but somewhat more likely is a weak weather front brings some cloud across at some point, sunshine at times too, and less hot conditions after the band of cloud clears. Temperatures could be anywhere from 25’C to 35’C, depending on when the very weak weather front arrives.

Pretty low confidence after that, though probably the heat will have subsided, and we’ll have temperatures back in the 24’C to 28’C range, with reasonably sunny days more likely than anything else.

A chance that a thundery low could develop over France next week and end up bringing us a spell of thundery rain at some point, either as a heatwave-ender on Tuesday/Wednesday, or just later in the week, but it isn’t an especially high chance as it stands.

Also I would be surprised if we don’t end up with another short-lasting heatwave in the first half of July, maybe around 8th July is a date to watch.

Have a pleasant weekend. Next forecast will probably be on Sunday morning.…

The heat is over, for now, but it will remain very warm – though a more changeable week ahead with a mixture of sunshine, cloud and some showers/bits of rain.

I am trialling moving the usual Monday morning forecast to Sunday morning, to see if it makes my working week a tad easier!

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So the general picture sees low pressure towards Iceland taking control, pushing the heat away. The jetstream is a bit more active than it has been – waking up in time for summer.

Sunday starts with sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. Cloud will gradually thicken during the afternoon but it will remain bright with hazy sunshine. A chance of a light (ish) shower this afternoon. Fresher and becoming quite windy, yet still very warm at around 25’C. Fairly cloudy this evening, perhaps a light shower, and another band of cloud crossing overnight with one or two showers. Around 16’C overnight.

Monday will be a pleasant day with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – overall there should be more sunshine than cloud, especially in the afternoon. Still breezy, around 23’C. Clear skies at first overnight, more cloud towards dawn – down to around 13’C.

Tuesday sees a weak weather front slowly crossing – so a lot of cloud around, perhaps a bit of light rain at times, but very little rain. Some breaks in the cloud probable, especially in the afternoon. Very warm, roughly between 24’C and 26’C, depending on how much afternoon sunshine we can squeeze. And still breezy. Fairly clear skies overnight and warmish, no lower than around 16’C.

On Wednesday we’ll tap into a bit of the European heat again, some sunny spells but also quite a bit of cloud around which though it will feel humid, will stop temperatures rising too high – say roughly around 26’C, though a bit higher possible. There will be a chance of a shower or two during the day, and in the evening a moderate chance of some thundery downpours moving up. A fairly warm night with showers or showery rain probable. No lower than 17’C.

Details for Thursday are a bit sketchy. Some showery rain still possible in the morning, then probably brighter after with some sunny spells, and a small chance of a shower. Around 24’C so still on the warm side.

By Friday high pressure should be pushing up from the south-west once more.

Again some uncertainty on details as weather fronts won’t be far away to our north. So more likely sunny spells or hazy sunshine, and becoming quite hot – say around 27’C. But something cloudier is plausible, and around 23’C.

For the weekend high pressure almost definitely will be in control. There is a possibility of a weak weather front getting trapped underneath, so some cloudy spells, with perhaps a spot of light rain, are possible either Saturday/Sunday.

But more likely we’ll be looking at sunny spells, if not long spells of sunshine. More likely temperatures are back to being quite hot, say 25’C to 28’C more likely on Saturday, 27’C to 30’C more likely on Sunday. Something a little hotter not out of the question either.

This general theme should continue into July of often very warm/hot, often sunny – though some weather fronts bringing a couple of cloudier days into the mix, perhaps with a little rain, and also a chance of importing thundery downpours on occasion – though always hit and miss on these events, as you likely know.

A short unsettled spell is plausible during the first 10 days of July, though after that there remains signals of a more lengthy spell of settled and hot weather establishing.

The signals for August remain unchanged, and are still fairly weak – that of something hotter, sunnier and drier than normal, though some showers in the mix at times.

Have a fun Sunday!…

Congratulations, it’s a heatwave! A few hot days to come, but becoming somewhat less hot from Sunday.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph (and assuming that I might need more fair weather photographs).

So the general picture sees high pressure over the UK and just drifting slightly east, which allows some of the hotter air to move up from Spain – though unlikely it will break June records (might be a close call though).

The hotter air is actually arriving a day or so earlier than previously expected, and being shunted away a day or two earlier than expected because there is a bit more energy in the jetstream – the low pressure to the north of the Azores right now is going to be picked up as part of the circulation of the low pressure south of Greenland – and hence the heat isn’t quite going to get to the levels once thought possible.

Anyway, today is hot and sunny. Very little if any cloud and reaching around 30’C, maybe 31’C – easily the hottest day of the year so far. I wouldn’t rule out 32’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud around, probably no lower than around 16’C so a fairly warm night.

Friday sees more in the way of high-level cloud so hazy sunshine is the theme, and a bit of a breeze too. But still hot, 29’C, maybe 30’C – I cannot totally rule out something a tad more. Mostly clear skies overnight, though a little cloud around, and a fairly warm night – probably no lower than 18’C.

Saturday starts fairly sunny. There will be some cloud at times as things start to break down from the west, and I cannot totally rule out a short heavy shower, but sunny spells will be the theme. Hot, though some uncertainty as to how hot. 30’C is the lower end of the possible range, 34’C is the upper end, I’d suggest 32’C more likely. The June record is 35.6’C – I’d say there is a 10% chance of this being breached, more likely in the Midlands area. Some cloud in the evening and a 30% chance of a shower, perhaps thundery – though they will probably be quite scattered (if they even develop). Likely a warm night – fresher air will arrive at some point, but don’t be surprised if it is still 25’C at midnight, and a notably uncomfortable night. Fresher air may arrive around midnight – but more likely not until around dawn.

By Sunday, low pressure is more in control, and high pressure has been shunted back into the continent.

Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud will be the theme, around a 20% chance of a passing shower, though unlikely it would amount to much if you caught one. Still some residual warmth, 26’C should be achieved, maybe even a little more – though the westerly breeze will make it feel more comfortable. A weak weather front will cross overnight bringing some cloud, maybe some showers – and a fresher night – roughly down to around 12’C.

For Monday, plenty of sunny spells, some cloud around – it should be dry too. Warm, around 23’C in a westerly breeze. Probably clear skies and dry overnight, around 13’C.

Fairly low confidence for Tuesday, but suggestions of a weather front crossing which would suggest a cloudier day with maybe a bit of rain, and around 21’C or so.

Low confidence afterwards – I’m actually more confident for next weekend than I am for the Wednesday to Friday period before it. So for next weekend I think there is a good chance (never certain at this range) of it being hot and sunny once more.

It’s how we get there that is trickier (with apologies for those going to Glastonbury hoping for a bit of certainty!). I think the more likely outcome is a slow build up of warmth towards the weekend, with mostly sunny days.

But there’s certainly a fair chance instead of something more changeable, maybe some thundery showers or even a band of rain crossing, with Wednesday/Thursday being the more uncertain days.

That’ll do for now. Enjoy the heat if you can (I shall be enjoying my air conditioning, quite how I used to cope without I have no idea), next forecast might be Sunday morning, or Monday if not.…

Plenty more sunshine and gradually becoming hotter as the week goes on.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

So the general picture right now sees low pressure to the north-east of Scotland today, but the Azores high is waiting to build in from the south-west, which will be the theme of the week.

Sunday starts sunny but there will be a cloudier spell for mid/late morning, perhaps a shower – say a 20% chance. Sunshine amounts then increasing again as the afternoon goes on. Warm, 23’C though breezy too. Mostly clear skies overnight, though some cloud/mist perhaps developing in places towards dawn. Down to around 13’C.

Monday will be a fair day – sunny spells to start, cloud will bubble up and likely more cloud than sunshine for a while, say mid/late morning and lunchtime, before sunshine amounts increase again later in the day. Very warm, we should get to around 25’C in a light breeze. Fairly clear skies overnight, around 14’C.

Tuesday sees more in the way of sunshine, though some high cloud will make it hazy at times, and also some fair-weather cloud around too. Very warm, 26’C should be reached. Fairly clear overnight, though some high cloud around, down to around 14’C.

By Wednesday high pressure should be over the UK, so most likely we’ll see long spells of sunshine, and temperatures around 26’C or 27’C…maybe 28’C. I wouldn’t totally rule out a spell of cloud for a portion of the day, though feels a low chance. Clear skies most likely overnight, a warmish feel, down to around 15’C.

By Thursday we just start to see high pressure migrate east a little bit – which gives the potential to tap into some of the heat over Spain/Portugal towards the weekend.

Most likely we’ll see more long spells of sunshine, some uncertainty on cloud amounts but the more likely outcome will be for it to be mostly sunny. Fairly hot, more likely around 28’C, though again a little uncertainty. Some high cloud possible overnight, down to around 16’C, give or take.

The more likely outcome for Friday would see lots more sunshine, and temperatures on the hot side again, say around 28’C being more likely, but feasibly could be anywhere between 25’C and 31’C. Also an outside chance of a heavy shower developing. Down to around 16’C overnight, so another warmish night.

The more likely outcome for Saturday and Sunday sees the hotter air arrive from the south, not certain but the more likely outcome. So more in the way of sunshine, and temperatures most likely in the low 30’s – with a small chance of the UK’s June record temperature being broken somewhere, which is currently 35.6’C.

It’s still plausible that instead the hot air doesn’t reach here, and we just stay with warmer than normal temperatures, but nothing unusual – say 25’C to 28’C, with sunshine and dry conditions still much more likely than not.

Assuming the hotter air does arrive at the weekend, then the more likely outcome for the week after would see the heat continuing for a day or two, again a chance of the June record being broken – before a thundery breakdown, and then settling down back to normal levels of warmth again. Though we need to see if the weekend heat arrives before we can really think about the week after.…