Some more wind/rain/showers to come but something drier developing next week with high pressure closer.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Today will see decent spells of sunshine. Seriously. A small chance of a shower this morning, but otherwise pleasant with sunny spells, and some cloud – a bit more high cloud later. 11’C, maybe squeezing a 12’C. On the breezy side. Cloud gradually thickening overnight with some outbreaks of rain arriving before dawn. Down to around 5’C.

Thursday sees a new area of low pressure cross the south of the UK – the jetstream remains on a southerly track, though not for too much longer.

Thursday likely sees rain for much of the day – sometimes heavy, sometimes light, and it will be fairly windy. I say “likely” as there is some uncertainty on the track, and it isn’t impossible that it is further south, and we remain cloudy with just some bits of rain. Notably cool, 7’C at best. Cloudy for most of the night, with some occasional bits of rain still possible – some clear spells probable by dawn, with temperatures getting down to around 2’C – a chance of a frost by dawn.

Friday looks reasonably sunny – some cloud at times, but a pleasant, if cool, day – around 9’C. Cloud gradually thickening overnight, with outbreaks of rain arriving in the latter part of the night, and becoming quite windy. Down to around 3’C at first but temperatures picking up as the night goes on.

Saturday morning sees outbreaks of rain – sometimes heavy. This should clear during the afternoon, but timing uncertain – so you may get some late afternoon sunshine. Windy, especially in the morning but much milder too as we tap into the Iberian warmth – you don’t want to know how warm it has been down here for me in Malaga this last week! 14’C back home. Cloud gradually clearing overnight, a shower not impossible, still quite windy and around 10’C.

Low pressure still around for Sunday – a fairly mixed day, some sunny spells, some cloud and some scattered showers – and still quite windy. Around 13’C.

Low pressure still close by for Monday, but high pressure rising in the Atlantic to our west, should come to have more influence as the week goes on.

Showers for Monday, and less so on Tuesday – some sunny spells and around 10’C.

Wednesday through Friday more likely dry or mostly dry – any weather fronts that make it through should be on the weak side. Unsure on sunshine amounts, and temperatures broadly around average – should skies be clear overnight then frost will be possible.

Perhaps something colder for the week after, though more likely we return to something fairly unsettled once more.

The form horse for December, remains mild and otherwise pretty average in my eyes, perhaps slightly drier than average.

Not sure when the next forecast will be – perhaps Saturday morning, it’s possible I will be back in England next week (will be quite a shock to leave the warm sunshine), but life will still be a bit chaotic until I get settled into my new place, so forecasts will remain haphazardly timed.…

Mixed weather ahead – some rain, but also some sunshine too.

I thought I’d indulge myself and share a sunrise photograph from my current destination in Spain – moving onto Malaga tomorrow, though I wish I was moving back to London into my new flat…alas…solicitors. Warm sunshine down here is a decent consolation, and it is about to warm up more!

Today starts with an area of heavy showers pushing south-east, fading as it does so but most places will see some heavy rain out of it. Gradually brightening up in the afternoon, reaching around 9’C so on the cool side. Fairly breezy too. Fairly clear skies overnight, temperatures down to around 2’C, so a touch of ground frost possible in places.

So the general pattern for Saturday sees a ridge of high pressure building, though a large area of low pressure is waiting out to the west for us.

Saturday will therefore be a pleasant autumn day, lots of sunshine, a bit of cloud and temperatures around 10’C. Cloud thickening overnight as a weather front approaches, temperatures down to around 3’C – some spots of rain possible by dawn.

Sunday looks a mostly cloudy day, with some patchy light rain at first in the morning, then some more persistent rain arriving at some point in the afternoon, for 2-3 hours or so. Some brightness possible at times, though generally fairly cloudy, 10’C and breezy. Further showery rain spreading across from the south-west later in the night, around 8’C.

Monday starts with showery rain, possibly heavy. Brighter in the afternoon with sunny spells, a shower possible but not especially likely. Windy but much milder, around 15’C. Variable cloud overnight, a shower possible, around 10’C.

Tuesday is more likely a day of sunny spells and occasional showers – though there is a chance that a cut-off low from the main low pressure system to our north-west could develop, bringing more general heavy rain and strong winds – one to watch, but the less likely outcome. Around 13’C.

Wednesday more likely is settled, some sunny spells, some cloud and breezy. Around 12’C.

Thursday again sunny spells, but a chance of a few showers, around 11’C.

A hint of higher pressure around for next weekend, or roughly around then, which would mean something more settled and drier – though confidence not especially high.

Enjoy your weekend, and I shall enjoy mine too in the 25’C sunshine. I’m really really delaying my autumn this year!…

The Atlantic still in charge, but high pressure nudging up from the south from time to time – so a mixed spell ahead.

Thanks to Louise for the glorious photograph.

Today starts with sunny spells. Cloud bubbling up and rather cloudy through the mid part of the day, perhaps a stray shower, then more in the way of sunshine at the afternoon goes on once more. 11’C, maybe 12’C and breezy. Clear spells at first, temperatures down to around 5’C, though cloud thickening after midnight with some patchy rain by dawn.

Wednesday sees the next weather front arrive, with the associated low pressure system some way behind it in the Atlantic, but heading our way. Outbreaks of rain for much of the morning, lasting into at least part of the afternoon, though it should be brighter to end the day. Just about squeezing 13’C with fairly strong winds in the morning. Fairly cloudy overnight, a stray heavy shower possible towards dawn, down to around 6’C.

Thursday sees sunny spells and a few scattered showers, perhaps heavy. Some places may miss them, say a 60% chance of catching one or two. Cooler, around 10’C and breezy. Further showers possible overnight, down to around 6’C.

Friday likely starts rather cloudy, some bits of showery rain possible – though some uncertainty as to where the centre of the low pressure will be situated, and hence any showers. It will clear east during the morning, sunny spells follow, with the odd stray shower. Cool and breezy, 10’C. Fairly clear skies overnight and a chilly one, down to around 3’C – a touch of ground frost in places.

Saturday sees a ridge of high pressure before the next low pressure system arrives. Plenty of sunshine, a bit of cloud around, but cool – around 9’C, maybe 10’C.

There’s some uncertainty on the arrival of this low pressure system – maybe it arrives on Saturday night, bringing some rain after a chilly start to the night, but maybe it doesn’t arrive until Sunday or even Monday – some suggestions that Saturday’s ridge of high pressure might just hang on. If so, then Saturday night could be frosty – around 0’C or below.

So Sunday probably sees some rain at some point.

Then Monday and into next week is likely to see further spells of wind and heavy rain – though definite suggestions that high pressure could build around next weekend to bring something drier, at least for a few days.…

Remaining fairly unsettled – it was even windy here in Spain yesterday. Some sunnier, drier days in the mix too though.

Thanks to Christel for her other wonderfully gloomy photograph.

A calmer day today, some sunshine, some cloud and one or two heavy showers around, more likely mid-late afternoon, but not impossible at other times. Reaching 13’C, maybe 14’C, and breezy. Clear spells for a time tonight, though clouding over with rain arriving around dawn, or slightly before. Down to around 5’C.

So the scene for Saturday sees pretty much the whole of Europe dominated by a large low pressure trough, with the jetstream further south than normal, through France. This will shift north during the course of next week – but doesn’t change the weather for us.

Saturday morning sees rain spread north, a good few hours of rain, some heavy bursts particularly on the back edge. Heavy showers immediately follow, though with sunny spells too. Windy in the rain, breezy after, 12’C, maybe 13’C. Showers still possible into the evening, and quite a lot of cloud overnight – though some clear spells. Down to around 8’C.

Early cloud on Sunday should clear to a pleasant day with sunny spells. Just an outside chance of a shower. 11’C, maybe 12’C and breezy. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, down to around 6’C.

Monday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. The odd shower possible, say around a 30% chance of catching one, still breezy and around 12’C. Probably dry and chilly overnight, though there is a small chance of an area of showers crossing instead – more likely at the moment that this heads over France.

Assuming the overnight area of showers headed to France, Tuesday should be a sunny day, with a bit of cloud. On the cool side at 10’C, maybe 11’C.

Wednesday likely sees rain crossing.

Thursday and Friday, not especially high confidence, but more likely drier with some sunshine.

Likewise not especially high confidence for next weekend, but more mixed with some showers/rain – but not a total washout.

Winter still looks like a milder winter than normal, perhaps much milder, with December a mixture of unsettled spells and settled, and January/February currently more likely to be drier than normal.

Snow-lovers will probably need to wish for a sudden stratospheric warming event – though short cold spells will be possible.…

Staying unsettled with Storm Ciaran arriving for Wednesday night into Thursday. You could call it a Halloween forecast.

Thanks to Christel for the perfect photograph.

Today sees some sunny spells, though plenty of cloud around and chance of a shower or two, though pretty hit and miss. Cloud gradually thickening during the afternoon, with rain arriving around 5/6pm ish. Reaching around 14’C. Outbreaks of rain this evening, some heavy, with occasional showers following overnight. Around 13’C and becoming quite windy. Some notably heavy showers possible around dawn, or just before.

Wednesday starts with heavy/very heavy showers. Sunny spells and scattered showers follow for the rest of the day. 13’C and fairly windy. Dry for a time in the evening, but rain arriving by late evening, some heavy rain, and this followed by heavy/very heavy showers overnight. Some strong gusts of wind too – perhaps sufficient for some damage/disruption, a few trees/fence panels down, etc.

Thursday sees Storm Ciaran in control.

Possibly some strong gusts of wind to start the day, but it will calm down for a time during the morning – rain on and off all day, sometimes heavy, and the winds against strengthen during the afternoon, probably reaching gale force with gusts around 50mph – again some minor damage to fence panels, some trees down, etc. 11’C at best. Rain and wind gradually fading overnight, down to around 8’C.

Friday will be calmer, rather cloudy in the morning though some bright spells – more in the way of sunshine as the day goes on. Reaching around 12’C and still quite windy. Clear skies at first overnight, though cloud gradually thickening with rain arriving before dawn. Down to around 6’C.

Saturday sees rain in the morning, likely fairly heavy, with sunny spells and scattered heavy showers in the afternoon. Reaching around 12’C and fairly windy.

Sunday doesn’t look too bad – some cloud, some sunny spells, the odd scattered shower. Around 12’C and breezy.

Remaining unsettled next week (and probably the week after) with hints of something cooler too.…

Fairly unsettled but fairly mild.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph – it’s from July, but similar weather to now.

So, Storm Babet is in control of our weather, though not much in the way of effect for us down here.

A cloudy start to Friday with bits of showery rain possible, though the bulk of the rain will be to our north. Some bright spells will develop later in the morning and into the afternoon, but also some scattered showers, which could be heavy. A fairly warm airmass for the time of year, reaching around 16’C. Further scattered showers overnight, no lower than around 12’C.

Low pressure is right on top of us for Saturday – it will be rather cloudy with some showers, the showers likely heavy and perhaps merging into longer spells of showery rain at times. Some brightness also at times, and some uncertainty as to the distribution of showers. Reaching around 15’C, maybe a tad more with a bit more sunshine. Still some showery bits in the evening but dry with clear spells overnight, down to around 7’C.

Sunday looks reasonably pleasant. Sunny spells, some fair weather cloud, one or two scattered innocuous showers but many places avoiding them. Reaching around 14’C, maybe 15’C. Cloud thickening from the south overnight, down to around 8’C – give or take a couple.

Monday starts with hazy sunshine. Cloud will gradually thicken with rain spreading up from the south, arriving some time between mid-afternoon and mid-evening – some uncertainty on the timing. Reaching around 16’C and becoming rather breezy. Rain, possibly heavy, for a spell in the evening, perhaps reaching into the night, though tending to clear later – showers may follow.

By Tuesday, we have low pressure over the UK, with more waiting to our west.

Details a bit uncertain, but broadly some sunny spells, a fair amount of cloud and some showers. Around 15’C.

Wednesday looks broadly dry to start with rain later – uncertain on timing, so perhaps overnight.

And the general theme for Thursday through into the weekend looks fairly unsettled – showers or rain many days, though there will be drier days too. Temperatures on the mild side.

November is hinting at starting on the unsettled side, with a more southerly tracking jetstream meaning low pressure systems further south than normal – though an increasing tendency for drier weather later in the month seems more likely.

December looking milder than average, though arguably more likely wetter than average.

I don’t know when the next forecast will be as my life is about to be a bit chaotic – the joys of waiting for a flat purchase to complete with a tenancy agreement ending beforehand. So I don’t know where I’m living next week. Time to book a 2 week holiday, I guess!

Have a good weekend.…

Becoming milder, but wetter.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

Today will be a day of hazy sunshine – the cloud gradually thickening during the day, broadly speaking, though with somewhat varying thickness and hence amounts of hazy sunshine. Milder, we should squeeze 15’C, as we pick up a flow from Spain. Becoming breezy too. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 10’C with a little patchy rain possible before dawn.

By Wednesday we see low pressure nudging in from the south-west.

Wednesday will generally be cloudy, the odd spot of patchy rain possible in the morning, though in the afternoon the rain will gather and spread north – some heavy bursts mixed in. This continuing until early/mid-evening. 16’C but windy, some fairly strong gusts at times. Fairly cloudy overnight, the odd shower possible, no lower than around 13’C, the wind easing somewhat.

Thursday morning starts with an area of showers moving north, fairly much first thing. This sets the theme for the day – often cloudy, sometimes raining – though the distribution of showers remains a little uncertain, you may well get frequent heavy showers, almost showery rain, or maybe just a few showers. Feeling somewhat warmer, 17’C or so. Further showers or showery rain possible overnight, though some uncertainty over where the focus will be. No lower than around 12’C.

Things get interesting on Friday, as high pressure re-establishes itself over Scandinavia, and stops our low pressure (Storm Babet) from going anywhere. If it was winter, such a set-up could lead to a major snowfall (though such things are never so straight-forward!).

Thankfully its October, so I don’t need to worry about “will it snow”, but there is uncertainty over both temperatures and rainfall. Generally it will be cloudy, and there will be at least some showery rain – perhaps persistent general rain. More likely we are still in the warmer air, reaching around 17’C – but its a fairly close call and will depend on the shape of the high pressure system over Scandinavia – it could be cooler and around 11’C instead. Roughly 70/30 split in terms of likelihood.

Showery rain still possible overnight, though less likely than during the day. Down to around 10’C with an easterly flow developing.

Not especially high confidence for Saturday, but more likely it is a mostly cloudy day, feeling cool in an easterly wind, perhaps some light showers. Temperatures between 10’C and 12’C. Probably too cloudy for a frost, but a chilly night likely.

Low confidence for Sunday, perhaps sunny spells and the odd shower, with temperatures somewhere between 10’C and 15’C – too much to be determined before then to have much confidence on details.

A more classic autumnal spell seems like the more likely way to go for next week and perhaps into early November – with spells of wind and rain, interspersed with fine days with the odd shower, being the most likely theme, and generally on the mild side.…

Some rain, then colder.

Thanks to JoJo for the photograph – from July, but its kind of similar vibes today.

This morning starts warm but cloudy, some showers around which could be heavy. These push east to leave a few dry hours roughly late morning into early afternoon – some heavy sunshine and it will be warm, at around 20’C. Then showery rain pushes south-east later in the day, some heavy bursts likely, roughly between mid/late afternoon and early evening. Windy, especially this morning – much cooler once the rain clears this evening. Mostly clear skies in a chilly NNW breeze overnight, down to around 6’C.

For the weekend we have something colder, with a northerly flow setting up for Saturday.

Plenty of sunshine for Saturday, some fair weather cloud and one or two scattered showers – say a 50% chance of catching one or two, fairly innocuous. Feeling much cooler, around 13’C in a north-westerly breeze. Clear skies overnight and chilly, down to around 3’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine, though becoming hazier in the afternoon. Just 11’C though – quite the change. Down to around 2’C overnight – the high-level cloud stopping it getting to freezing point.

By Monday, high pressure remains in control, though low pressure will be trying to edge in from the south-west – which means a continuation of the hazy sunshine of Sunday, and temperatures around 12’C. Uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight, and hence temperatures – though on the chilly side most likely.

For Tuesday, likely there will be reasonable amounts of sunshine, if perhaps hazy sunshine – some uncertainty on cloud amounts due to the uncertainty positioning of low pressure to our south/south-west. Around 14’C so feeling a bit milder, though breezy, if not windy.

Wednesday is when confidence starts to break down more – we likely see low pressure trying to push north, though the high pressure block won’t give way easily.

Take this with a pinch of salt, but something along the lines of hazy sunshine to start – chances of showery rain later in the day. This will need a couple more days to firm up, as it is a bit of a tricky transition. Fairly confident it will be windy, and temperatures roughly around 13’C.

Thursday more likely to see some showery rain – though probably also something slightly warmer, say around 16’C.

Again the forecast for next weekend depends on where this low pressure close to our south-west is, and where the high pressure close to our north-east is. Whichever is closer will determine our weather – it does look like a fairly blocked situation with neither moving too far for a few days at least.

So it could be rather wet/showery but mild, or it could be drier but cooler. Either way, a good chance of it being windy.

Have a good weekend. Maybe make sure your heating still works and find those jumpers!…

The warm air mass remains, but with rain in the mix too. Then much cooler by Saturday – jumpers out, heating on.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

Today is another day with long spells of warm sunshine, albeit hazy at times with a fair amount of high-level cloud. Reaching around 22’C in a westerly breeze. Cloud thickening somewhat overnight, some patchy mist/fog possible – most places no lower than 15’C so a mild night.

By Wednesday we see the warm upper air ebbing away, colder air is trying to push down from the north, but low pressure is also edging in from the west.

Early mist/fog/low cloud patches will lift to hazy sunshine, though the cloud will gradually thicken during the day as a weather front very slowly edges south. 20’C should be reached, maybe a shade more. Uncertain as to when the rain arrives, likely by the evening we are seeing some showery rain – some quite heavy, some light – but maybe also some patchy rain during the afternoon. Further showery rain overnight, though trending generally drier as the night goes on, down to around 11’C.

For Thursday, we will still be in the warmer air mass, but it will be cloudy so temperatures restricted to around 16’C, give or take. Some early showery bits of rain possible, the odd bit of light rain possible in the afternoon too but otherwise mostly dry and mostly cloudy. Rain spreading north-east in the evening and overnight, heavy at times and some fairly strong winds. Very mild, 17’C.

Friday is a little complex, as we likely have two, maybe three distinct weather fronts. The one to the south will involve some heavy/very heavy rain – but exactly where it will be is uncertain, though I’d favour that we do get at least some heavy/very heavy rain at times in the morning. Once it clears there should be some hazy sunshine, and temperatures could easily reach 21’C, assuming so. Then the next weather front sinks south later in the day, the rain more patchy though there is potential for a spell of heavy rain into the evening – all highly uncertain.

However, if the southern weather front is further south, we may instead find the second weather front clearing through in the morning/afternoon, and cooler air spreading south earlier.

As I said, a complex picture and exact details on timing of rain bands, will need a couple more days.

Overnight sees clear skies and a chilly northerly wind, down to around 6’C.

So, from much warmer than normal to a bit colder than normal, as a northerly flow sets in.

Saturday will be reasonably sunny with a bit of fair-weather cloud and a small chance of a fairly innocuous shower. But in a northerly breeze, temperatures around 13’C. Down to around 3’C overnight – a touch of frost in places.

Sunday looks fairly sunny, some cloud around – but just 10’C, maybe 11’C at a push. Hmmm. Where summer gone? Down to around 0’C overnight, a frost for most.

Next week starts dry with sunny spells, but also on the chilly side for the time of year.

Uncertain where we go later in the week – I’d slightly fancy rain pushing in from the west for a fairly short unsettled spell, but it is uncertain. There is also a fairly strong signal for high pressure to build over Scandinavia, which would mean a chilly easterly is more likely later in the month.

Goodbye warmth, for now.…