Some sunshine, some cloud and generally staying very warm.

Thanks to Karen for the photograph.

The general picture sees high pressure in control, centred over Scotland which means an easterly flow which means temperatures not quite as hot as they could be – which also caused all that cloud yesterday, which hung around a lot longer than expected.

What cloud there was has already cleared this morning, and we’ll be left with a mostly sunny day – some cloud is possible at times, though sunshine will dominate. Warm, around 24’C. The cloud spilling back across from the North Sea overnight, no lower than around 16’C.

Monday morning looks cloudy. The sun will break through at some point in the afternoon, maybe early afternoon, arguably more likely by mid/late afternoon, to leave a pleasant end to the day. Temperatures will depend on how quick the sun comes out, somewhere between 21’C and 25’C. Cloud gradually thickening overnight, though somewhat more haphazardly than the previous night, down to around 15’C.

Tuesday starts rather cloudy, though some sunny breaks will be possible. And the day generally continues like this – most likely more cloud than sunshine, though some uncertainty on cloud amounts overall. A very small chance of a shower later in the day. Temperatures reaching somewhere between 22’C and 25’C, depending on how much sunshine we see. Mostly cloudy overnight, a chance of a spot of light rain, down to around 14’C.

By Wednesday high pressure is more centred over Iceland, and we have some kind of north-easterly flow.

Probably mostly cloudy in the morning, the chances of some sunny spells will increase in the afternoon. A bit of a fresher feel, but still reaching close to 22’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 14’C.

Thursday will more likely see a fair amount of cloud again, cloud more likely in the morning, sunny spells more likely in the afternoon – though details by this point become more uncertain, as per usual. Around 21’C or so. Clear spells more likely overnight than cloud, down to around 10’C so cooler than of late.

Friday sees high pressure taking over once more, though a hint of a northerly flow so temperatures again not quite what they could be. So more in the way of sunshine (probably)! and temperatures roughly around 22’C.

Somewhat uncertain for the bank holiday weekend, as there will be a major hurricane (Hurricane Erin) in the Atlantic, off the coast of USA, though at the moment it looks like it will help push high pressure our way, at least for Saturday.

So Saturday probably looks reasonably sunny and very warm – though I wouldn’t want to promise that right now, say 70% confidence.

For Sunday and Monday it is more uncertain, and will depend on how Hurricane Erin interacts with the low pressure to the west of us – some models suggest it subsumes it and hence slows down the progress of low pressure systems towards us – the result being that we import some heat from our south, so becoming hot and sunny.

But it could also split and push the original low pressure, which would mean some rain/showers for Sunday/Monday, but I stress the word “some”. I currently think the former more likely, but low confidence.

Current suggestions are that the remnants of Erin will introduce a more unsettled week to finish August, though this is a long way away – and highly uncertain.

Have a good Sunday, I shall be back on Thursday morning.…

Hot and sunny for the foreseeable.

Sunday’s forecast had a couple of details wrong, though same applied to professional forecasts even on the day for Monday. I guess the influence of ex-tropical storm Dexter confused the models, which is what I mostly rely on.

That said, I did suggest in the summer forecast back in early June that it could be “a summer for the ages”. Probably has been, and there’s more to come.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

The general picture sees high pressure loosely in control with the very hot weather continuing over much of the European continent. The low to our west which had an uncertain direction in the last forecast, is going to drop south towards the Azores, rather than head our way.

We start Thursday with quite a bit of low cloud around, some breaks in the cloud. Gradually it will break up to leave good and increasing spells of sunshine, especially later this afternoon. Quite hot, but not like it has been, reaching around 27’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, a very small chance of some localised mist/fog patches by dawn – but unlikely. Down to around 15’C.

Friday sees long spells of sunshine, with a bit of cloud bubbling up. Hot, reaching around 30’C – I’m so having a beer on my roof in the afternoon. An easterly breeze setting up, and overnight this means a good chance of importing some North Sea cloud – minimum temperatures somewhere between 14’C and 17’C, higher if cloud arrives early.

Saturday likely starts cloudy but the sun will burn through the cloud at some point. Uncertain as to when, more likely during the morning but certainly possible it takes until early afternoon to break through – once it does, long spells of sunshine should follow. Very warm, though how much will depend on how quickly the sun comes out – reaching somewhere between 25’C and 28’C. Probably clear or mostly clear skies overnight, and down to around 13’C.

By Sunday the general overview sees high pressure over the UK, centred over Scotland – the aforementioned low just starting to track towards us once more.

Sunday will be a mostly sunny day with long spells of sunshine – perhaps some cloud at times. Again a bit of uncertainty on temperatures, but roughly between 25’C and 28’C. Cloud probably heading over again overnight from the North Sea, down to roughly 15’C.

Monday likely starts cloudy, but again the sun will burn through at some point, most likely during the morning, to leave long spells of sunshine. Reaching somewhere between 25’C and 27’C so very warm once more. Some cloud possible again overnight.

Some uncertainty for Tuesday but more likely it stays at least fairly sunny and very warm, with temperatures roughly between 25’C and 28’C once more. A chance of a heavy shower.

That’s about as far as I can go with any confidence – forecasting at this time of year is more difficult than many other times of the year, due to the Atlantic hurricane season, and there is quite a whopper of a hurricane expected in Hurricane Erin, which is forecasted to curve out into the Atlantic later next week, so it may well have some kind of impact on our weather, depending on what track it takes.

However there is still a fairly consistent signal for a more northerly flow for the back holiday weekend, which would suggest something more average in terms of temperatures, perhaps even on the cool side, with some showers/rain at some points. Oh well…but it’s still a long way away.

Have a very pleasant weekend ahead…maybe enjoy the sunshine whilst you can!…

Heatwave number 4 incoming, but it won’t be hot and sunny all the time.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure building over the UK, helped on by the remnants of Tropical Storm Dexter to our west, which is slowly trundling our way though also significantly weakening.

Today sees good spells of sunshine, some fair-weather cloud will bubble up at times, particularly during the lunchtime period, but otherwise sunshine is the theme. Very warm, reaching around 26’C, or close to. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Monday sees long spells of sunshine, though probably somewhat hazy at times. Hot, we should just about get to 30’C. Quite a bit of cloud around overnight, a chance of a shower and a very small chance of a rumble of thunder. A warmer and more humid night, probably no lower than 18’C.

Tuesday will see long spells of sunshine, and a little bit of cloud at times. Hot – reaching somewhere between 32’C and 34’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though perhaps some mist/fog patches by dawn in more prone spots. A fairly warm night, down to around 17’C.

Wednesday sees the remnants of Dexter close by, but having very little effect on our weather – it will remain hot and fairly sunny, though some more high/mid-level cloud around, and a very small, say 5-10% chance of a thundery shower developing in the afternoon. Hot, some uncertainty on temperatures but somewhere between 29’C and 34’C – with the bottom half of that range more likely, and probably quite humid too. Highly uncertain overnight, there is a small chance of spectacular thunderstorms developing, or a small-moderate chance of some thundery rain developing – if either happens, then expect a very warm and humid night. Slightly more likely nothing happens and it is dry.

So it gets pretty complex from here – I feel like I have more confidence for the weather the week after, then I do for the rest of the coming week/weekend.

The general picture for Thursday sees a new low to our west, though there is quite a lot of uncertainty as to what it does – will it cross the UK and head towards Scandinavia, or will it sink south to the west of Spain/Portugal? Either way, I have more confidence that the Azores high to the west of it, will build over the UK either for the weekend or into next week.

All that said, Thursday is probably hot and sunny once more. Some cloud probable, a small chance of a shower and less hot than it has been – say around 28’C or so.

The more likely outcome for Friday is a broadly pleasant and very warm/quite hot day with variable amounts of cloud. There is a smaller chance of something cloudier and showery – depending on what the aforementioned low pressure does.

Next weekend is highly uncertain, maybe settled and very warm/quite hot is slightly more likely, but it could very easily be showery instead.

The week after more likely will be very warm or hot, often sunny, often dry – though I wouldn’t rule out the chance of a thundery shower at some point.

I still expect August to balance out as warmer, drier and sunnier than normal, and the summer-like conditions should remain perhaps into September. Not every day, there will be some interruptions, but for many days. Further heatwaves are very possible.

Have a great Sunday.…

As expected, summer is gradually coming back, and it will become hotter at times too.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph.

So the general picture still sees us in a westerly flow, low pressure to the north, high pressure over much of Europe. Considering that this is, on average, when maximum temperatures peak, much of Europe isn’t that hot right now – 33’C in Athens, for example. The European heatwave of June and early July has certainly subsided.

It’s a bright though fairly cloudy start to Thursday, we have a weak weather front slowly crossing today, which will bring generally thicker cloud for the afternoon and maybe a little light rain later in the day. Probably getting to 22’C or just under, becoming breezy too. Cloud thinning overnight, down to around 12’C.

Friday sees a lot of high cloud around making the sunshine hazy, and some fair-weather cloud – though generally the trend will be towards something sunnier as the day goes on. Warm, 25’C is achievable. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Saturday sees good spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud bubbling up, notably during the lunchtime period. Very warm, reaching around 26’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

High pressure remains in control for Sunday, long spells of sunshine, some fair-weather cloud, and very warm – around 26’C, maybe a tad more. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

For the start of next week, we start to pick up more of a continental flow, so it should become hotter.

Some of the details becoming more uncertain for Monday, though broadly speaking a sunny day, though perhaps the sunshine hazier than it has been. A very small, say 5% chance, of a heavy shower developing for late afternoon/evening, and some uncertainty on temperatures. Hotter, for sure, but anywhere in the range of 28’C to 32’C, depending on exact direction of the breeze. A much warmer night than we’ve had for a few weeks, around 18’C.

More likely, it will remain broadly hot and sunny for Tuesday, though not especially high confidence. So good spells of sunshine, and temperatures somewhere between 27’C and 31’C.

That’s as far as I can go with any confidence on details.

There’s a reasonable chance that the hot and sunny-ish weather can hang on a few more days, but likewise we might return to something more westerly like we have now (warm and mixed weather), and a small chance instead of a more thundery low developing. Quite a few options for the second half of next week and into next weekend – maybe we’ll go through all of them!

Generally speaking for the next 2-3 weeks, it should be hotter, sunnier and drier than normal – but there will be some cloudier days in the mix, heavy/thundery showers possible on some days.

Have a very pleasant weekend, I shall be ensuring I get some sunshine at some point – next forecast will be on Sunday morning.…

Another mixed week ahead though drier, warmer and sunnier overall then the last couple of weeks.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

However we start the week with Storm Floris crossing Scotland. Unusually strong winds for August up there.

Down here, it’s a bright start though cloud will thicken pretty quickly, with some bits and pieces of rain around. Mid/late afternoon seeing something a bit more persistent, with 2-3 hours of light to steady rain. Sunshine by early evening. Windy, and we should just about reach 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Tuesday starts sunny. Some cloud will bubble up, perhaps more cloud than sunshine during the lunchtime period, and generally sunnier later in the day. Warm, around 24’C. Mostly clear skies overnight though a cooler night than for some time – down to around 10’C.

Wednesday will be another pleasant day, sunny to start, high cloud is expected to spread across roughly by late morning but it will remain bright with hazy sunshine for the rest of the day. Around 24’C so feeling warm once more. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Thursday sees a weakening weather front cross the UK, so more in the way of cloud at times during the day, and perhaps a shower – but also some sunshine, and probably warmer. More likely reaching around 26’C, though there is a little uncertainty on that aspect. Some high cloud around overnight, down to around 14’C.

By Friday the general picture sees high pressure loosely in control, though the heat will be building over western Europe once more – on average this is around the peak of land temperatures in the northern hemisphere, one week into August.

We still have quite a westerly flow, due to the jetstream being quite strong to our north, so not (yet) tapping into the European heat.

The more likely outcome for Friday is that we see a lot of high/mid-level cloud so a bright day with hazy sunshine, and warm too – around 25’C. However there is some uncertainty over the thickness of cloud, there is a small chance of it being thicker, cooler and perhaps with some drizzle. Likewise a small chance it is thinner, and temperatures are a little hotter.

Not especially high confidence for the weekend, but the more likely option for both Saturday and Sunday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, and broadly warm/very warm – say around 25’C or so.

A small chance instead of something cloudier, cooler and with some drizzle, likewise small (ish) chance of something much hotter, tapping into that European heat.

The more likely outcome for next week is for reasonable amounts of sunshine and temperatures broadly very warm or hot, or perhaps varying somewhat.

Still reasonable confidence on a good chunk of August being very pleasant indeed, with chances of heatwaves growing for the second half of the month, though some short unsettled spells will remain possible.

Have a pleasant week.…

Some downpours expected today, and staying mixed afterwards – which does include some sunnier days, but also the potential for an autumnal storm next week.

Thanks to Peter for the photograph.

Gosh is it the last day of July already? So the general picture is little changed from the last week or so, we still have high pressure quite close to our south-west which is feeding this rather cloudy Atlantic air over the top.

Today will be a rather cloudy day with some heavy showers at times, potentially merging into longer spells of rain – some probably very heavy, some thunder possible too. Probably drier later in the day, and brighter too. Around 20’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Friday sees a lot of cloud, especially in the morning and a few showers breaking out – more likely on the light/moderate side but could still be heavy. A bit more in the way of sunshine for the afternoon, though the shower chance remains – and the potential for more potent downpours, perhaps thundery, for late afternoon/early evening, say a 40% chance of catching one. Temperatures nothing amazing for the start of August, around 21’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Saturday will be a pleasant day with a mixture of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud, overall probably more cloud than sun. A small chance of a light/moderate shower. Around 23’C. Clear skies to start the night, clouding over later – down to around 14’C.

Sunday will be a cloudy day with a weather front crossing. A lot of uncertainty on how much rain will fall, it could just be a damp squib, or it could be a fair few hours of heavy/very heavy rain, perhaps even thundery. I feel the latter is more likely, but check forecasts nearer the time if you have plans. Quite warm and humid, around 22’C – and quite windy later. Skies probably clearing for a time overnight, though clouding over later – down to around 14’C.

For Monday, probably we see a more autumnal kind of system crossing the UK, with some tropical origination.

For us in the south, it looks a mostly cloudy day with unusually strong winds for August – potentially gusting 40-50mph which could be enough for some tree branches to come down, so a chance of some disruption. And some heavy rain at times. A warm feel is probable, somewhere between 21’C and 25’C more likely.

Gusts of 40-50mph is the more likely outcome, but it’s possible it could track further south and be more of an issue for us. At the moment, gusts of 60-70mph are very possible for northern England and southern Scotland – so do keep an eye out if you have plans for Monday.

Tuesday should be fair (ish), some sunshine, some cloud – a chance of a shower.

That’s about as far as I can go with any reasonable confidence. I remain a bit concerned about Monday’s system, as it does feel like the kind of “event” that can change longer-term weather patterns, and hence makes me less confident of a return to the hotter, sunnier conditions that I was expecting after the beginning of August.

That said, there could easily be a short heatwave as a consequence of Monday’s storm, arriving for late next week – the more likely outcome, but with low levels of confidence.

Until there is evidence in the models otherwise, I shall stick with my expectation of the dry, sunny and very warm/hot weather to return for weeks 2/3 of August, but now with notably lower confidence.

Have a pleasant weekend ahead, next full forecast will be Monday morning, maybe I will do a short update before, but I tend not to have much time nowadays.…

Often cloudy is the vibe for this forecast. Generally warm, some sun, some showers too.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph (even if it is on the border of Berkshire…I don’t get enough photographs to be that choosy!).

Not much change in the general pattern, high pressure dominates to our south-west, which means we have a westerly/north-westerly flow – the latter does tend to bring a lot of cloud, which it has done and will do.

So Sunday will be rather cloudy. Some sunny breaks at times, but cloud is the main vibe, if also quite bright. A 30% chance of a heavy shower later in the day – if showers develop they will be very scattered. Around 21’C in a north-westerly breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Monday will see a fair amount of cloud but a bit more in the way of sunny spells than on Sunday. Some showers bubbling up too, around a 40% chance of catching one or two during the day. Warmer, around 24’C but also quite breezy. Clear skies for a time overnight, cloud thickening later – down to around 15’C.

Tuesday starts rather cloudy, with a weather front crossing. Some uncertainty on rain amounts – it will be rather showery in nature and a fairly small feature, so it could just be dribs and drabs, though I think more likely there will be at least some heavy showers mixed in. A chance of some sunshine in the afternoon, but the shower risk will remain. More likely around 22’C or so, but if sunshine amounts surprise then up to 25’C is plausible. Showers still possible in the evening/overnight though gradually becoming more scattered, and generally it will be rather cloudy. Around 16’C.

Plenty of cloud again for Wednesday, some sunny spells and a 30% chance of a shower or two. Around 23’C in a light north-westerly (ish) breeze. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight – down to around 15’C.

Not much change in the set-up for Thursday, if anything high pressure will have retreated west somewhat.

Plenty of cloud likely once more, some sunny spells and probably some showers, say a 60% ish chance of a couple of heavy showers later in the day, or evening – potentially very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Around 23’C or so.

Friday sees more of a northerly flow and probably more influence from low pressure to our east – so again plenty of cloud, some sunny spells and a greater chance of showers, say a 70% chance of at least a couple of heavy showers, potentially very heavy/torrential and thundery. Temperatures around 22’C.

Next weekend is fairly uncertain – the somewhat more likely outcome sees further showers, a general continuation of the week before.

But perhaps high pressure will instead build across the UK – this is what I expect to happen at some point after the beginning of August, but in time for next weekend is a bit of a stretch. However, tropical storm developments are hinted at off the coast of the USA, which could be enough to nudge high pressure more towards us.

Generally I expect mid/late August to see more in the way of sunshine and warmth – we should return to something like summer.

And maybe this continues into autumn too. Weak signals, but signals nonetheless of high pressure dominating early autumn.

Have a good Sunday.…

Becoming warmer again, with a mixture of cloud, sunshine and some heavy showers on some days.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

The general set-up sees high pressure ridging to our west, with a more north-westerly flow, which tends to be a cloudier set-up most of the time as remnants of weather systems and general Atlantic-based cloud head here.

Thursday likely starts cloudy, if not it will quickly become cloudy. Some bits and pieces of mostly light rain will spread down from the north, though the odd heavy shower could be mixed in. Around 20’C though a tad cooler in the afternoon. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 15’C.

Friday starts mostly sunny, some cloud will bubble up during the morning, probably quite a bit of fair-weather cloud during the lunchtime period (cannot totally rule out a shower), then sunnier later. Very warm, reaching around 27’C. Mostly clear skies overnight though tending to be more cloud by dawn, around 16’C.

Saturday sees a band of cloud crossing in the morning, perhaps a shower, though some hazy sunshine also possible at times. The afternoon generally looks sunnier, still some cloud at times and a 20% chance of catching a heavy shower (perhaps very heavy/thundery). Warm, reaching around 25’C or so. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday looks somewhat sunnier, with more sunshine than cloud likely, though still some cloud around at times – and a 25% chance of catching a heavy, thundery downpour in the afternoon/early evening. Warm, around 24’C or so. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Not much has changed by Monday synoptically, the Azores high still quite close to our south-west, but not quite close enough for it to be sunny and dry all day – and still a north-westerly flow.

Monday generally looks somewhat on the cloudier side of the spectrum though still some sunny spells, especially early and late in the day. Small chances of a shower. Around 24’C or so.

Lower confidence on day-to-day details by Tuesday but more likely something on the cloudier side of the spectrum, perhaps a bit of light rain at times.

Perhaps sunnier and quite hot for Wednesday/Thursday though fairly low confidence.

Uncertain for next weekend.

Generally the trend should be for high pressure to extend across much of the UK, though it may take until after next weekend to become established fully.

Confidence is increasing in August being drier, warmer and sunnier than normal – potentially hot at times, though I think the extreme heat which was close at times in June/early July, will be less likely than it has been.

Have a pleasant weekend, next forecast should be Sunday morning.…

A showery few days, with some potent downpours possible – but trending drier as the week goes on.

Thanks to Peter for the photograph.

The general overview sees a fairly potent low pressure in charge, which will move north-east across the UK over the next couple of days, before splitting into two weaker areas of low pressure.

A mostly cloudy start to Sunday with bits of showery rain. Fairly quickly some heavy/very heavy showers will break out, most places seeing a couple but perhaps you miss them all. Sunnier for the afternoon, still some scattered heavy showers at first, perhaps thundery, but those becoming fewer as the day goes on. A fresher feel though still warm at around 23’C, and quite breezy. Clearer skies in the evening, then cloudier overnight with some showers possible after midnight. Around 15’C.

Monday sees low pressure pretty much on top of us and it is pretty much a perfect recipe for downpours. Sunshine limited though some at times, plenty of cloud and plenty of showers. Some uncertainty over exact details, we will need a little sunshine to develop any really potent downpours – there’s a good chance of some torrential and thundery downpours developing, hail possible too, especially in the afternoon/early evening – there is a Met Office weather warning out, a slightly more agreeable one than the amber warning for Saturday gone. However there is a chance instead of more general cloud and showery rain, which would stop any real torrential downpours developing, or at least reduce the chances. Around 22’C and breezy, perhaps gusty in any downpours. Showers fading in the evening with variable amounts of cloud overnight, down to around 15’C.

Tuesday likely sees quite a lot of cloud, but some sunshine at times – probably more so in the early part of the morning. Some showers possible, but far fewer than Monday and generally less likely to be heavy if you do catch one or two. Warm, around 23’C or so in a north-westerly (ish) breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, a shower possible, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday is back to some sunny spells but plenty of heavy showers. Some uncertainty on the distribution, there is maybe a 20% chance that we avoid them all, but 80% likely we’ll see at least a few heavy/very heavy showers, thunder possible. Reaching around 23’C so warm in the sunny spells. Showers fading in the evening, fairly clear skies overnight and down to around 13’C.

By Thursday we see our friend, the Azores high, moving in once more.

Still quite a lot of cloud likely, especially through the middle portion of the day and overall more cloud than sunshine. But still, some sunny spells and only a moderate chance of an afternoon shower, say around a 40% chance. Warm, around 23’C or so. Fairly clear skies overnight, and down to around 13’C.

Friday looks a dry day, uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts though I’d favour something on the sunnier side of the spectrum being more likely. Warmer too, around 25’C.

Reasonable confidence for Saturday being fairly sunny and very warm, say around 25’C.

Lower confidence for next Sunday, somewhat more likely is it being fairly sunny and very warm, say around 27’C – but a return to something more showery is very possible instead.

Perhaps slightly lower temperatures and something a bit mixed to start the week after, though likely trending drier and warmer after that.

Still pretty low confidence for August as a whole, but I’m still think overall a drier, sunnier and warmer than normal month is the more likely outcome, with notably hot conditions much less likely than they have been. Perhaps hottest in the latter third of the month.

Have a pleasant Sunday!…

A proper mixture of weather ahead, some heat, some downpours, some cloudy spells and some sunny spells.

Thanks to Karen for the photograph.

So the general picture to start the forecast period sees high pressure to the south, and also far to our north, above Scandinavia – with low pressure about to be squeezed through the middle, which is where we are. Summer is only on pause, and even then there’s some hot and sunny weather to be found.

Thursday starts mostly cloudy thanks to a decaying weather front, some bits of light rain or drizzle possible. It should brighten up at least somewhat from roughly lunchtime onwards, some sunny spells, if perhaps hazy, though always a fair amount of cloud around. A small chance of an afternoon shower, say a 20% chance. Very warm and humid, a bit of uncertainty on the maximum temperature but somewhere around 26’C seems about right. A cloudy and fairly warm night overnight, down to around 17’C.

Friday will be a fairly hot and humid day. Some cloud around at times but also some reasonable sunny spells breaking through. There is maybe a 15% chance of a stray downpour developing in the afternoon. Reaching around 30’C, and humid too. At some point in the evening, more likely later on, heavy and possibly thundery showers, or more likely showery heavy rain will spread up from France. The rain potentially very heavy at times. A pretty warm and humid night, eventually down to around 18’C.

Saturday probably starts with this heavy, showery rain, perhaps with a rumble of thunder. This should clear, I guess late morning but this is uncertain, to be follower by some sunny spells but also some heavy, possibly thundery downpours. Showers tending to fade by mid-late afternoon. Again on the humid side, and very warm – temperatures will depend on how much sunshine you get, but say 23’C to 27’C is the range. Dry at first overnight, some showery rain spreading up in the second half of the night. Down to around 16’C.

By Sunday we have low pressure firmly in charge, centred to the south-west of Ireland.

Sunday likely starts cloudy with showery rain. This should clear to sunny spells and scattered heavy/very heavy showers for the rest of the morning, maybe part of the afternoon – generally sunnier and drier later in the day…probably. Very warm, reaching around 25’C. Further showers possible in the evening, showers or showery rain likely overnight. Down to around 16’C.

Monday sees low pressure crossing England. Some sunny spells but plenty of heavy/very heavy showers, perhaps torrential, perhaps thundery. Maybe you miss them all, but more likely you’ll see quite a few during the course of the day. Still on the warm side, somewhere around 23’C but very give and take. Showers mostly fading overnight, down to around 14’C.

For Tuesday we see low pressure pull away to the north-east, so fewer showers around and those that are shouldn’t be heavy. Some sunny spells and roughly around 23’C.

That’s about as far as I can go with reasonable confidence on details. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the low pressure spawn a secondary low for Tuesday night/Wednesday with some heavy rain – but I wouldn’t expect it yet either.

Broadly speaking Wednesday and Thursday are more likely fairly mixed days, though somewhere on the drier end of the spectrum is more likely, especially Thursday. Pretty unremarkable temperatures for July.

Friday and into next weekend perhaps the Azores high is trying to build once more, again not especially high confidence but that should see the warmth return, with some mixture of sunshine and cloud if it does – don’t be surprised if there is some weak weather front at some point too.

I don’t see a quick return to hot sunny days, but neither do I see weeks of unsettled weather ahead either. A general mish-mash of summer-ish weather probably takes us into early August – temperatures broadly around average with the odd short hot spell possible, variable amounts of cloud and sunshine, a few weak weather fronts bringing bits of rain on some days – nothing special but nothing dreadful.

After early August, it seems that there is a reasonable chance of high pressure having more influence with sunshine amounts increasing, and temperature back into the hot range more often.

Have a pleasant weekend ahead…maybe time to find the umbrella.

…